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Timberrr....

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While stocks make higher highs and investors shrug at recent housing data weakness (because, well it must be the weather, right?), it appears there is one rather important factor that every one missing... Unless houses are now being made of stock certificates, Lumber prices have fallen for the last 21 days and stand at 10-month lows... suggesting real demand for the most basic building material in America is non-existent.

 

Timberr.....

 

Seems like the builders get it...

 

Don't Care? Maybe you should...

 

 

And then there's this...

 

 

 

But don't worry, we're sure The Fed will rescue everyone again...?

 

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Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:52 | 4823830 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

There you go again bothering us with facts.

We are all going to be millionaires,and on our way to trillionaires.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:56 | 4823844 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

I'm already a trillionaire in this false reality.  

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:58 | 4823856 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Get to work, Mr. Yellen.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:01 | 4823875 StacksOnStacks
StacksOnStacks's picture

GROW HEMP!!!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:05 | 4823891 BellyBrain
BellyBrain's picture

Hemp would eliminate the entire lumber industry...and it should.  Hemp bricks make much better, healther, longer lasting structures.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:32 | 4823896 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"Let them make bricks without straw.  And the tally shall not decrease."

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 16:21 | 4824424 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Nice 'The Ten Commandments' plug.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:18 | 4823914 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I would love to see someone try to frame a subdivision with hemp. It would resemble an African village

And when those buildings burn I sure hope there is an open pizza joint nearby for the firefighters..

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:40 | 4824023 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Lord, this is getting to be a bitter pill.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 19:37 | 4825046 BellyBrain
BellyBrain's picture

ZerOhead, you might want to do some research before you open your mouth.  Hemp bricks can look like pretty much any other brick if wanted, and hemp can be made to look like pretty much whatever a builder wants.  Example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOZSGOiSoCo


Wed, 06/04/2014 - 16:28 | 4824451 PresidentCamacho
PresidentCamacho's picture

You could build a composite out of hemp plastics and hemp fiber that would last long and be strong, then grow your hair out and hug trees

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:00 | 4824097 sleigher
sleigher's picture

and run your car on it

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:09 | 4824127 max2205
max2205's picture

MOAR profit margin

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:57 | 4823858 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

You see non of this matters, prices will continue rising until the currency change over.  FYI - I have not seen the price drop at the lumber yard, no deflation there - they just sit on the material until a government building project comes along and then they get the price they want / need to stay in business.  NO DEFLATION ALLOWED

These are American Dreams

AD

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:12 | 4823910 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

These are lumber futures.

You are talking old inventory, bought at the old price.

As the chart says, a two month lag, maybe more.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 16:06 | 4824367 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

Fair enough Winston.  I'll get back to you in August when I'm raising a barn. 

AD

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 18:28 | 4824846 Kayman
Kayman's picture

"old inventory, bought at the old price." ????? WTF ? July and September futures (A-frame rail cars of SPF) are both down about $60/MBF or $6000-8000 per railcar since March. And you can take physical delivery if you want.

And the cash market is down substantially too, and mills have inventory backed up their ying-yangs.

Tell me how to buy/sell "old inventory at the old price".

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:54 | 4824328 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

If anything, the cost of lumber has increased, at least in my neck of the woods.  Almost blew a gasket when i went to buy some wood for personal projects.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:58 | 4823861 Ironmaan
Ironmaan's picture

Whats up is down

Whats wrong is right

The FED can suck me

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:53 | 4823834 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Got wood ?

 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:07 | 4823893 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

The Global Warmists sure do...

Just a couple of days ago the National Association of Manufacturers said Obama's new energy policy will pretty much finish off what little remains of manufacturing in America for a 30% CO2 reduction and a probable doubling of power prices.

Now the pending collapse of the timber industry will allow for more CO2 sequestration in the forests.

Things have never looked greener...

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:23 | 4823943 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Trees NEED CO2.  I have read a lot of global warming papers (peer-reviewed).  Their conclusions never agree with their data and they often overuse statistics (poorly I might add).

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:29 | 4823978 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Shhhh... they are listening...

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:54 | 4823839 replaceme
replaceme's picture

Blue Python is bullish cardboard boxes

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:55 | 4823843 maskone909
maskone909's picture

next the talking heads will tell us that rising interest rates are bullish for homebuilders.  always a bullish spin.  FUUUCK

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:02 | 4823877 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

Interst rates won't be rising Mask.  The fed keeps the lid on al la Japan, as soon as the USD is officially no longer the reserve currency then rates have zero chance of rising.  Plus if rates go up the fed starts posting loses to their shareholders and that is just NOT going to happen.  

Know your enemy

AD

 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:05 | 4823892 maskone909
maskone909's picture

agreed.  pretty much boxed in.  waiting for it to blow.  waiting wating

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:28 | 4823974 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

After many false starts, not much longer.

If we can get there without  nukes used in coming  war.

I'm beginning to doubt that.Obozo is coming apart mentally,

and the rational player may put him ,and us, down as you would

any rabid dog.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:56 | 4823849 MWizard
MWizard's picture

3 ways to become a frustrated trader. 1. Try to become a perfect trader. 2. Try to never lose. 3. Plan to make a specific amount of money in a specific period of time. Using any of these method will make you frustrated but you can do it only on your own risk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6fZYR8_j5I 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:57 | 4823855 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Oh, so you reference HIS parody account but not my parody account - I'm going to rehypothecate your Collateralized Litterbox Obligations when you least expect it.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:01 | 4823874 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Now that is funny.  I don't care who you are!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:57 | 4823857 bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

the central banks don't try to keep lumber prices uo they try to keep equity prices up as of today they're succeeding

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 13:59 | 4823869 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Given that this commodity market has almost nothing to do with the real building materials market or the price of timber paid anywhere in the US, I would not draw any conclusions from it.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:03 | 4823886 yellencrash
yellencrash's picture

I really think we're right on the verge of the decline, the yellencrash is immanent.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:11 | 4823908 oddjob
oddjob's picture

followed by yellencash.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:10 | 4823906 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

keep them coming and eventually one will be that AHAH!! moement

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:11 | 4823909 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I thought the first chart was the VIX.  Someone is taking it to poundtown this afternoon.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:12 | 4823918 youngman
youngman's picture

Watch those Hurrican Maps....that is usually good for wood futures....and my favorite strip club name is...The Lumber Yard....

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:16 | 4823934 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Suggested motto:  "Got Wood?"

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:13 | 4823919 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

"Unless houses are now being made of stock certificates" No, they are using the bones of worthless debt serf muppets now...

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:16 | 4823932 Kristian
Kristian's picture

Let the Fed buy some future contracts. Problem solved.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:24 | 4823964 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

or they could nationalize the industry - that always works - just ask Venezuela - a leader in nationalizing innovation

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:22 | 4823951 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

<-----  Trillionaire in Zimbabwe $

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:22 | 4823952 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Nice, real nice.

Never mind folks, at the re-opening of these here ancient parliaments in bonny 'Ingerland', the Queem gave her historic postulations on the final year of her co-alition government.

The assorted paedophiles, child molesters, those that cover up child abuse, fiends, expense fiddlers, thieves, con-men, chancers, liars, beasts, vagrants, perverts, in-breds, of questionable morals and deviances, Right Hounorable Gentleman.

They sat and listened, the cunts.  They sat and listened as the Queem, explained the world is heading down a right unsuitable path, mired in un-payable debt, wracked with greed and filth at the top, countries falling apart and lives being that much harder to live as the whole population suffers to save those filthy cunts who print money from thin air, charge interest on it and live off our backs, all the while we plebs suffer, they listened.

The Qeemns answer to this moral wreckage of Britain as we know it?

5p on the price of a plastic carrier bag, and no, I shit you not.  Five fucking pence on a carrier bag?

These fucking cunts aint just corrupt and out of touch, they are clinically insane.  Beyond certifiable.

We are fucked, more fucked than even us cynical fuckers can comprehend.

;-)

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:42 | 4824030 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Worth the tough read, as usual.  If it wasn't so tragic, I'd be laughing.  Now you know how the elites end up saying things like "let them eat cake."  You almost can't blame them when they get that out of touch.  They don't know any better.

FYI- My favo(u)rite words from your post were:  Paedophile, 5p and, of course, Queem.

 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:11 | 4824141 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

If I'm hard to comprehend NoDebt, I dont mean it, really, I just have that way of typing?

Look at the message my friend, we are the ones who have to sort this shit out, as usual, not the big men, us.

And thanks, you made me smile.

:-)

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:27 | 4824213 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

"...assorted paedophiles, child molesters, those that cover up child abuse, fiends, expense fiddlers, thieves, con-men, chancers, liars, beasts, vagrants, perverts, in-breds, of questionable morals and deviances..."

Nice.

But couldn't you have worked wankers, twats and tossers in there somehow?

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:23 | 4823960 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

There's no wood required when building highrise 1 and 2 bedroom apartments.

 

Housing starts are up - if you want a new apartment.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:24 | 4823961 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

The Ewok loves the forest ...

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:34 | 4823998 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

This is good news!  Means we are further pulling away from all fundamentals; new paradigm confirmed!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:36 | 4823999 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Maybe THIS will finally result in the layoffs of some of those overpaid and protected-from-job competition grunts in the logging industry.

SHARE the work.

Then we'll be saying "Timberrrrr...!" as their huge mortgages, swimming pools, RVs, quad bikes, trophy wives and i-gadgets come down....

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:41 | 4824026 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Maybe no one needs paper lumber...just like paper gold...

MDB argues that these are just trading entities and unrelated to anything real....like actual need for a commodity...for once he is right.

In fact most of our wealth is now held in stuff just like that, paper with no relationship to anything real. As long as paper works in place of real stuff we will all be fine.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 14:44 | 4824041 MathWins
MathWins's picture

I'm a lumber buyer for a major manufacturer in the building industry located in the midwest.  We are having the busiest year since 2006.  The falling lumber prices are hard to understand.  Are investors getting out?  That could be.  Is China purchasing much?  I haven't heard of them affecting the price in the US market since January.  When China is buying, the market goes up.  

No one I've talked to in the lumber market understands why prices are going down.  We are all busy.  If someone figures it out, let me know!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:11 | 4824139 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

What on earth are you building, who's the end buyer (if any) and are they buying with credit?

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 16:27 | 4824447 MathWins
MathWins's picture

Selling to lumber yards, who are selling to builders, who are building homes for their customers.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 16:42 | 4824500 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

all those 4 X 8's are being used to prop up the DOW for sure

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:10 | 4824130 praps
praps's picture

ZH ran a similar story this time last year

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-14/lumber-new-baltic-dry

 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:15 | 4824156 starman
starman's picture

Ha ? Lumber? Im building my new house out of federal reserve notes! 

Cheaper than lumber!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 15:36 | 4824264 kw2012
kw2012's picture

No worries, lumber prices will increase when demand picks up this winter which should be extremely mild due to climate change.(cough)

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 16:03 | 4824359 walküre
walküre's picture

Cool if it mattered.

I'm getting permits to build a second house on my land as we speak. Was hoping lumber prices go down substantially.

BUT the real story is that although paper lumber is crapping out, the cost for the real stuff hasn't budged much. In the contrary, boards and beams are going up.

So in line with the current China copper and aluminum story where audits found much less material than actually listed on the balance sheets....

The Fed fuckers printed more paper than the global tree supply!

Real shit is expensive. Paper shit is in the crapper. Don't know what type of "flation" that is but I'm sure some highly paid and decorated Harvard imbecile has a phrase for it.

Why are they rehypothecating stuff all over? I tell you why. Because when they can pretend that they're trading 100x more stuff than really exists, they can make themselves rich in the process. Who needs these leeches? They produce absolutely nothing of value!

Can I pretend I have 10x or 100x the amount of layers and eggs that I actually do just to write myself bigger paycheques? But that is exactly what these hundreds and thousands of "financial professionals and financial engineers" do on a daily basis!

They make shit up to keep paying themselves.

I'm pissed off.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 19:16 | 4824989 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Maybe the plunge protection team have momentarily confused lumber and gold.

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