Tyler Durden's picture

While stocks make higher highs and investors shrug at recent housing data weakness (because, well it must be the weather, right?), it appears there is one rather important factor that every one missing... Unless houses are now being made of stock certificates, Lumber prices have fallen for the last 21 days and stand at 10-month lows... suggesting real demand for the most basic building material in America is non-existent.




Seems like the builders get it...


Don't Care? Maybe you should...



And then there's this...




But don't worry, we're sure The Fed will rescue everyone again...?

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Winston Churchill's picture

There you go again bothering us with facts.

We are all going to be millionaires,and on our way to trillionaires.

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

I'm already a trillionaire in this false reality.  

BellyBrain's picture

Hemp would eliminate the entire lumber industry...and it should.  Hemp bricks make much better, healther, longer lasting structures.

NoDebt's picture

"Let them make bricks without straw.  And the tally shall not decrease."

John Law Lives's picture

Nice 'The Ten Commandments' plug.

ZerOhead's picture

I would love to see someone try to frame a subdivision with hemp. It would resemble an African village

And when those buildings burn I sure hope there is an open pizza joint nearby for the firefighters..

dontgoforit's picture

Lord, this is getting to be a bitter pill.

BellyBrain's picture

ZerOhead, you might want to do some research before you open your mouth.  Hemp bricks can look like pretty much any other brick if wanted, and hemp can be made to look like pretty much whatever a builder wants.  Example:


PresidentCamacho's picture

You could build a composite out of hemp plastics and hemp fiber that would last long and be strong, then grow your hair out and hug trees

American Dreams's picture

You see non of this matters, prices will continue rising until the currency change over.  FYI - I have not seen the price drop at the lumber yard, no deflation there - they just sit on the material until a government building project comes along and then they get the price they want / need to stay in business.  NO DEFLATION ALLOWED

These are American Dreams


Winston Churchill's picture

These are lumber futures.

You are talking old inventory, bought at the old price.

As the chart says, a two month lag, maybe more.

American Dreams's picture

Fair enough Winston.  I'll get back to you in August when I'm raising a barn. 


Kayman's picture

"old inventory, bought at the old price." ????? WTF ? July and September futures (A-frame rail cars of SPF) are both down about $60/MBF or $6000-8000 per railcar since March. And you can take physical delivery if you want.

And the cash market is down substantially too, and mills have inventory backed up their ying-yangs.

Tell me how to buy/sell "old inventory at the old price".

Luckhasit's picture

If anything, the cost of lumber has increased, at least in my neck of the woods.  Almost blew a gasket when i went to buy some wood for personal projects.

Ironmaan's picture

Whats up is down

Whats wrong is right

The FED can suck me

ZerOhead's picture

The Global Warmists sure do...

Just a couple of days ago the National Association of Manufacturers said Obama's new energy policy will pretty much finish off what little remains of manufacturing in America for a 30% CO2 reduction and a probable doubling of power prices.

Now the pending collapse of the timber industry will allow for more CO2 sequestration in the forests.

Things have never looked greener...

lordylord's picture

Trees NEED CO2.  I have read a lot of global warming papers (peer-reviewed).  Their conclusions never agree with their data and they often overuse statistics (poorly I might add).

ZerOhead's picture

Shhhh... they are listening...

replaceme's picture

Blue Python is bullish cardboard boxes

maskone909's picture

next the talking heads will tell us that rising interest rates are bullish for homebuilders.  always a bullish spin.  FUUUCK

American Dreams's picture

Interst rates won't be rising Mask.  The fed keeps the lid on al la Japan, as soon as the USD is officially no longer the reserve currency then rates have zero chance of rising.  Plus if rates go up the fed starts posting loses to their shareholders and that is just NOT going to happen.  

Know your enemy



maskone909's picture

agreed.  pretty much boxed in.  waiting for it to blow.  waiting wating

Winston Churchill's picture

After many false starts, not much longer.

If we can get there without  nukes used in coming  war.

I'm beginning to doubt that.Obozo is coming apart mentally,

and the rational player may put him ,and us, down as you would

any rabid dog.

MWizard's picture

3 ways to become a frustrated trader. 1. Try to become a perfect trader. 2. Try to never lose. 3. Plan to make a specific amount of money in a specific period of time. Using any of these method will make you frustrated but you can do it only on your own risk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6fZYR8_j5I 

icanhasbailout's picture

Oh, so you reference HIS parody account but not my parody account - I'm going to rehypothecate your Collateralized Litterbox Obligations when you least expect it.

PartysOver's picture

Now that is funny.  I don't care who you are!

bobbydelgreco's picture

the central banks don't try to keep lumber prices uo they try to keep equity prices up as of today they're succeeding

wrs1's picture

Given that this commodity market has almost nothing to do with the real building materials market or the price of timber paid anywhere in the US, I would not draw any conclusions from it.

yellencrash's picture

I really think we're right on the verge of the decline, the yellencrash is immanent.

oddjob's picture

followed by yellencash.

HUGE_Gamma's picture

keep them coming and eventually one will be that AHAH!! moement

firstdivision's picture

I thought the first chart was the VIX.  Someone is taking it to poundtown this afternoon.

youngman's picture

Watch those Hurrican Maps....that is usually good for wood futures....and my favorite strip club name is...The Lumber Yard....

Bastiat's picture

Suggested motto:  "Got Wood?"

The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

"Unless houses are now being made of stock certificates" No, they are using the bones of worthless debt serf muppets now...

Kristian's picture

Let the Fed buy some future contracts. Problem solved.

orangegeek's picture

or they could nationalize the industry - that always works - just ask Venezuela - a leader in nationalizing innovation

curbyourrisk's picture

<-----  Trillionaire in Zimbabwe $

Inthemix96's picture

Nice, real nice.

Never mind folks, at the re-opening of these here ancient parliaments in bonny 'Ingerland', the Queem gave her historic postulations on the final year of her co-alition government.

The assorted paedophiles, child molesters, those that cover up child abuse, fiends, expense fiddlers, thieves, con-men, chancers, liars, beasts, vagrants, perverts, in-breds, of questionable morals and deviances, Right Hounorable Gentleman.

They sat and listened, the cunts.  They sat and listened as the Queem, explained the world is heading down a right unsuitable path, mired in un-payable debt, wracked with greed and filth at the top, countries falling apart and lives being that much harder to live as the whole population suffers to save those filthy cunts who print money from thin air, charge interest on it and live off our backs, all the while we plebs suffer, they listened.

The Qeemns answer to this moral wreckage of Britain as we know it?

5p on the price of a plastic carrier bag, and no, I shit you not.  Five fucking pence on a carrier bag?

These fucking cunts aint just corrupt and out of touch, they are clinically insane.  Beyond certifiable.

We are fucked, more fucked than even us cynical fuckers can comprehend.


NoDebt's picture

Worth the tough read, as usual.  If it wasn't so tragic, I'd be laughing.  Now you know how the elites end up saying things like "let them eat cake."  You almost can't blame them when they get that out of touch.  They don't know any better.

FYI- My favo(u)rite words from your post were:  Paedophile, 5p and, of course, Queem.


Inthemix96's picture

If I'm hard to comprehend NoDebt, I dont mean it, really, I just have that way of typing?

Look at the message my friend, we are the ones who have to sort this shit out, as usual, not the big men, us.

And thanks, you made me smile.


Liquid Courage's picture

"...assorted paedophiles, child molesters, those that cover up child abuse, fiends, expense fiddlers, thieves, con-men, chancers, liars, beasts, vagrants, perverts, in-breds, of questionable morals and deviances..."


But couldn't you have worked wankers, twats and tossers in there somehow?

orangegeek's picture

There's no wood required when building highrise 1 and 2 bedroom apartments.


Housing starts are up - if you want a new apartment.

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

The Ewok loves the forest ...

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

This is good news!  Means we are further pulling away from all fundamentals; new paradigm confirmed!