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Timberrr....
While stocks make higher highs and investors shrug at recent housing data weakness (because, well it must be the weather, right?), it appears there is one rather important factor that every one missing... Unless houses are now being made of stock certificates, Lumber prices have fallen for the last 21 days and stand at 10-month lows... suggesting real demand for the most basic building material in America is non-existent.
Timberr.....
Seems like the builders get it...
Don't Care? Maybe you should...
And then there's this...
Home Builder - Head Scratcher pic.twitter.com/OceR51hbD7
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) May 22, 2014
But don't worry, we're sure The Fed will rescue everyone again...?
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There you go again bothering us with facts.
We are all going to be millionaires,and on our way to trillionaires.
I'm already a trillionaire in this false reality.
Get to work, Mr. Yellen.
GROW HEMP!!!
Hemp would eliminate the entire lumber industry...and it should. Hemp bricks make much better, healther, longer lasting structures.
"Let them make bricks without straw. And the tally shall not decrease."
Nice 'The Ten Commandments' plug.
I would love to see someone try to frame a subdivision with hemp. It would resemble an African village
And when those buildings burn I sure hope there is an open pizza joint nearby for the firefighters..
Lord, this is getting to be a bitter pill.
ZerOhead, you might want to do some research before you open your mouth. Hemp bricks can look like pretty much any other brick if wanted, and hemp can be made to look like pretty much whatever a builder wants. Example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOZSGOiSoCo
You could build a composite out of hemp plastics and hemp fiber that would last long and be strong, then grow your hair out and hug trees
and run your car on it
MOAR profit margin
You see non of this matters, prices will continue rising until the currency change over. FYI - I have not seen the price drop at the lumber yard, no deflation there - they just sit on the material until a government building project comes along and then they get the price they want / need to stay in business. NO DEFLATION ALLOWED
These are American Dreams
AD
These are lumber futures.
You are talking old inventory, bought at the old price.
As the chart says, a two month lag, maybe more.
Fair enough Winston. I'll get back to you in August when I'm raising a barn.
AD
"old inventory, bought at the old price." ????? WTF ? July and September futures (A-frame rail cars of SPF) are both down about $60/MBF or $6000-8000 per railcar since March. And you can take physical delivery if you want.
And the cash market is down substantially too, and mills have inventory backed up their ying-yangs.
Tell me how to buy/sell "old inventory at the old price".
If anything, the cost of lumber has increased, at least in my neck of the woods. Almost blew a gasket when i went to buy some wood for personal projects.
Whats up is down
Whats wrong is right
The FED can suck me
Got wood ?
The Global Warmists sure do...
Just a couple of days ago the National Association of Manufacturers said Obama's new energy policy will pretty much finish off what little remains of manufacturing in America for a 30% CO2 reduction and a probable doubling of power prices.
Now the pending collapse of the timber industry will allow for more CO2 sequestration in the forests.
Things have never looked greener...
Trees NEED CO2. I have read a lot of global warming papers (peer-reviewed). Their conclusions never agree with their data and they often overuse statistics (poorly I might add).
Shhhh... they are listening...
Blue Python is bullish cardboard boxes
next the talking heads will tell us that rising interest rates are bullish for homebuilders. always a bullish spin. FUUUCK
Interst rates won't be rising Mask. The fed keeps the lid on al la Japan, as soon as the USD is officially no longer the reserve currency then rates have zero chance of rising. Plus if rates go up the fed starts posting loses to their shareholders and that is just NOT going to happen.
Know your enemy
AD
agreed. pretty much boxed in. waiting for it to blow. waiting wating
After many false starts, not much longer.
If we can get there without nukes used in coming war.
I'm beginning to doubt that.Obozo is coming apart mentally,
and the rational player may put him ,and us, down as you would
any rabid dog.
3 ways to become a frustrated trader. 1. Try to become a perfect trader. 2. Try to never lose. 3. Plan to make a specific amount of money in a specific period of time. Using any of these method will make you frustrated but you can do it only on your own risk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6fZYR8_j5I
Oh, so you reference HIS parody account but not my parody account - I'm going to rehypothecate your Collateralized Litterbox Obligations when you least expect it.
Now that is funny. I don't care who you are!
the central banks don't try to keep lumber prices uo they try to keep equity prices up as of today they're succeeding
Given that this commodity market has almost nothing to do with the real building materials market or the price of timber paid anywhere in the US, I would not draw any conclusions from it.
I really think we're right on the verge of the decline, the yellencrash is immanent.
followed by yellencash.
keep them coming and eventually one will be that AHAH!! moement
I thought the first chart was the VIX. Someone is taking it to poundtown this afternoon.
Watch those Hurrican Maps....that is usually good for wood futures....and my favorite strip club name is...The Lumber Yard....
Suggested motto: "Got Wood?"
"Unless houses are now being made of stock certificates" No, they are using the bones of worthless debt serf muppets now...
Let the Fed buy some future contracts. Problem solved.
or they could nationalize the industry - that always works - just ask Venezuela - a leader in nationalizing innovation
<----- Trillionaire in Zimbabwe $
Nice, real nice.
Never mind folks, at the re-opening of these here ancient parliaments in bonny 'Ingerland', the Queem gave her historic postulations on the final year of her co-alition government.
The assorted paedophiles, child molesters, those that cover up child abuse, fiends, expense fiddlers, thieves, con-men, chancers, liars, beasts, vagrants, perverts, in-breds, of questionable morals and deviances, Right Hounorable Gentleman.
They sat and listened, the cunts. They sat and listened as the Queem, explained the world is heading down a right unsuitable path, mired in un-payable debt, wracked with greed and filth at the top, countries falling apart and lives being that much harder to live as the whole population suffers to save those filthy cunts who print money from thin air, charge interest on it and live off our backs, all the while we plebs suffer, they listened.
The Qeemns answer to this moral wreckage of Britain as we know it?
5p on the price of a plastic carrier bag, and no, I shit you not. Five fucking pence on a carrier bag?
These fucking cunts aint just corrupt and out of touch, they are clinically insane. Beyond certifiable.
We are fucked, more fucked than even us cynical fuckers can comprehend.
;-)
Worth the tough read, as usual. If it wasn't so tragic, I'd be laughing. Now you know how the elites end up saying things like "let them eat cake." You almost can't blame them when they get that out of touch. They don't know any better.
FYI- My favo(u)rite words from your post were: Paedophile, 5p and, of course, Queem.
If I'm hard to comprehend NoDebt, I dont mean it, really, I just have that way of typing?
Look at the message my friend, we are the ones who have to sort this shit out, as usual, not the big men, us.
And thanks, you made me smile.
:-)
"...assorted paedophiles, child molesters, those that cover up child abuse, fiends, expense fiddlers, thieves, con-men, chancers, liars, beasts, vagrants, perverts, in-breds, of questionable morals and deviances..."
Nice.
But couldn't you have worked wankers, twats and tossers in there somehow?
There's no wood required when building highrise 1 and 2 bedroom apartments.
Housing starts are up - if you want a new apartment.
The Ewok loves the forest ...
This is good news! Means we are further pulling away from all fundamentals; new paradigm confirmed!
Maybe THIS will finally result in the layoffs of some of those overpaid and protected-from-job competition grunts in the logging industry.
SHARE the work.
Then we'll be saying "Timberrrrr...!" as their huge mortgages, swimming pools, RVs, quad bikes, trophy wives and i-gadgets come down....
Maybe no one needs paper lumber...just like paper gold...
MDB argues that these are just trading entities and unrelated to anything real....like actual need for a commodity...for once he is right.
In fact most of our wealth is now held in stuff just like that, paper with no relationship to anything real. As long as paper works in place of real stuff we will all be fine.
I'm a lumber buyer for a major manufacturer in the building industry located in the midwest. We are having the busiest year since 2006. The falling lumber prices are hard to understand. Are investors getting out? That could be. Is China purchasing much? I haven't heard of them affecting the price in the US market since January. When China is buying, the market goes up.
No one I've talked to in the lumber market understands why prices are going down. We are all busy. If someone figures it out, let me know!
What on earth are you building, who's the end buyer (if any) and are they buying with credit?
Selling to lumber yards, who are selling to builders, who are building homes for their customers.
all those 4 X 8's are being used to prop up the DOW for sure
ZH ran a similar story this time last year
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-14/lumber-new-baltic-dry
Ha ? Lumber? Im building my new house out of federal reserve notes!
Cheaper than lumber!
No worries, lumber prices will increase when demand picks up this winter which should be extremely mild due to climate change.(cough)
Cool if it mattered.
I'm getting permits to build a second house on my land as we speak. Was hoping lumber prices go down substantially.
BUT the real story is that although paper lumber is crapping out, the cost for the real stuff hasn't budged much. In the contrary, boards and beams are going up.
So in line with the current China copper and aluminum story where audits found much less material than actually listed on the balance sheets....
The Fed fuckers printed more paper than the global tree supply!
Real shit is expensive. Paper shit is in the crapper. Don't know what type of "flation" that is but I'm sure some highly paid and decorated Harvard imbecile has a phrase for it.
Why are they rehypothecating stuff all over? I tell you why. Because when they can pretend that they're trading 100x more stuff than really exists, they can make themselves rich in the process. Who needs these leeches? They produce absolutely nothing of value!
Can I pretend I have 10x or 100x the amount of layers and eggs that I actually do just to write myself bigger paycheques? But that is exactly what these hundreds and thousands of "financial professionals and financial engineers" do on a daily basis!
They make shit up to keep paying themselves.
I'm pissed off.
Maybe the plunge protection team have momentarily confused lumber and gold.