• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Treasury Yields Spike On Seasonally-Adjusted Survey Data; Recouple With Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture


The last 4 days have seen 10Y yields surge by over 20bps and recouple with equity market exuberance as the 'temporary' growth scare in bonds disappears into the mists of time (until the next one). This morning's farce in the markets was impressive as bonds managed to ignore all the weakness in hard data (weak ADP, dismal trade deficit, and worse productivity) and decided that what really matters is a seasonally-adjusted survey of the service industry.



All about the softsurvey seasonally adjusted data...


Charts: Bloomberg

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Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:32 | 4823109 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Games are fun, when you write the rules.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:44 | 4823149 john39
john39's picture

OT, banker death wave shifting to media moguls?:


Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:32 | 4823110 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture


If the 10 yr hits 2.75%, I will be loading up on REM....

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:40 | 4823138 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

DOWN go mortgage apps -3.1%!!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:52 | 4823170 Boston
Boston's picture

I'm averaging in right now. But I prefer the 7-8 year T-Notes over the 10 year. Less downside if I'm wrong!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:35 | 4823120 madbraz
madbraz's picture

NY FED gave $13.5 billion in securities lending yesterday, $4 billion more than the day before.  That's what we know.  What we don't know is what else the NY FED is doing, who got how much in collateral in reverse repos yesterday.


You close the NY FED for a few days and we would see where this market would go without the treasury collateral they provide to players who claim it as their own (probably here and across the pond at the same time).   The gig would be up instantly, price discovery would rule.



Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:37 | 4823126 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Well, thank God that's never going to happen.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:49 | 4823164 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I don't believe for a second the Fed has 'tapered' a damn thing either. If anything they're pumping in $150 billion monthly to keep this shitliner from sinking.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:36 | 4823124 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

See, you should be buying the dip.  Get on board.  Train's leaving for the next station!  Toot, toot!

- Dennis Gartman


Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:39 | 4823129 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

"And the train, it won't stop going, no way to slow down..."


Locomotive Breath -- Jethro Tull

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:43 | 4823145 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture


Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:42 | 4823141 sockratte
sockratte's picture

but, but, but didnt you tell us over the last weeks that the sup had to come down to the yield curve?





Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:42 | 4823143 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture


"bonds managed to ignore all the weakness in hard data (weak ADP, dismal trade deficit, and worse productivity) and decided that what really matters is a seasonally-adjusted survey of the service industry."


If the gold market doesn't get to decide, nor silver, nor stocks, why would the bond market get to decide it's fair price????

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:55 | 4823181 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I guess it's just because bawnds are what the gubmint has for sale. Even with that I have no insight into central banksters sausage making details.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:08 | 4823227 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

All the markets have become a Federal Reserve utility. Total control has been achieved through hft as it appears to me and any moves in a poor direction for the Fed will be met with whatever force necessary to recover their goaled price. If they let anything get out of control price wise especially the bond market it's over for them all and they know it. Meanwhile the economy sinks further and further into the abyss.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:50 | 4823167 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Bonds recouple with stock?

When you got the Fed equity backstop... why not!


Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:55 | 4823179 stutes33
stutes33's picture

thats a spike? 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:01 | 4823209 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

20 Bps in 4 days is a big move in yields...

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:36 | 4823330 stutes33
stutes33's picture

1.75 (5/2013) to 2.97 (9/13) is a spike. 20bps is a blip 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:00 | 4823199 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

someone out there is just turning the dial back and forth and roasting everyone's balls. long and short.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 12:07 | 4823473 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Easy to do when you see the trades.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:38 | 4823341 Bernie777
Bernie777's picture

Putting aside the futility of trying to link (rigged or not) financial market moves to economic data, I wonder why equity bears should lament yields going up, as a bond bear market may well be their only hope of seeing that pile of equity crap go down. New highs for the 10-year yield are not far...

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 12:45 | 4823603 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Yeah just a blip, still within the 20-day bollinger bands, but at least it's a sharp move in the right direction, maybe the Fed got a little embarrassed at all the attentions and speculations about THEIR SCREWING UP and being squeezed by the banksters.

This "recoupling with stocks" is bogus.  There is no coupling, unless by the Gatekeeper and Keymaster of the Fed.

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