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Treasury Yields Spike On Seasonally-Adjusted Survey Data; Recouple With Stocks
The last 4 days have seen 10Y yields surge by over 20bps and recouple with equity market exuberance as the 'temporary' growth scare in bonds disappears into the mists of time (until the next one). This morning's farce in the markets was impressive as bonds managed to ignore all the weakness in hard data (weak ADP, dismal trade deficit, and worse productivity) and decided that what really matters is a seasonally-adjusted survey of the service industry.
All about the softsurvey seasonally adjusted data...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Games are fun, when you write the rules.
OT, banker death wave shifting to media moguls?:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2647818/Black-box-shows-private-...
BTFD....
If the 10 yr hits 2.75%, I will be loading up on REM....
DOWN go mortgage apps -3.1%!!
I'm averaging in right now. But I prefer the 7-8 year T-Notes over the 10 year. Less downside if I'm wrong!
NY FED gave $13.5 billion in securities lending yesterday, $4 billion more than the day before. That's what we know. What we don't know is what else the NY FED is doing, who got how much in collateral in reverse repos yesterday.
You close the NY FED for a few days and we would see where this market would go without the treasury collateral they provide to players who claim it as their own (probably here and across the pond at the same time). The gig would be up instantly, price discovery would rule.
Well, thank God that's never going to happen.
I don't believe for a second the Fed has 'tapered' a damn thing either. If anything they're pumping in $150 billion monthly to keep this shitliner from sinking.
See, you should be buying the dip. Get on board. Train's leaving for the next station! Toot, toot!
- Dennis Gartman
"And the train, it won't stop going, no way to slow down..."
Locomotive Breath -- Jethro Tull
AWESOME tune!
but, but, but didnt you tell us over the last weeks that the sup had to come down to the yield curve?
lol
Tylers,
"bonds managed to ignore all the weakness in hard data (weak ADP, dismal trade deficit, and worse productivity) and decided that what really matters is a seasonally-adjusted survey of the service industry."
If the gold market doesn't get to decide, nor silver, nor stocks, why would the bond market get to decide it's fair price????
I guess it's just because bawnds are what the gubmint has for sale. Even with that I have no insight into central banksters sausage making details.
All the markets have become a Federal Reserve utility. Total control has been achieved through hft as it appears to me and any moves in a poor direction for the Fed will be met with whatever force necessary to recover their goaled price. If they let anything get out of control price wise especially the bond market it's over for them all and they know it. Meanwhile the economy sinks further and further into the abyss.
Bonds recouple with stock?
When you got the Fed equity backstop... why not!
thats a spike?
20 Bps in 4 days is a big move in yields...
1.75 (5/2013) to 2.97 (9/13) is a spike. 20bps is a blip
someone out there is just turning the dial back and forth and roasting everyone's balls. long and short.
Easy to do when you see the trades.
Putting aside the futility of trying to link (rigged or not) financial market moves to economic data, I wonder why equity bears should lament yields going up, as a bond bear market may well be their only hope of seeing that pile of equity crap go down. New highs for the 10-year yield are not far...
Yeah just a blip, still within the 20-day bollinger bands, but at least it's a sharp move in the right direction, maybe the Fed got a little embarrassed at all the attentions and speculations about THEIR SCREWING UP and being squeezed by the banksters.
This "recoupling with stocks" is bogus. There is no coupling, unless by the Gatekeeper and Keymaster of the Fed.