Auto Sales: Hype Versus Reality, You Decide

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,


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Seasmoke's picture

Pass the stuffing. 

Badabing's picture

The MSM gives a number and we’re supposed to believe it?

Sold to who? Probably sold for scrap to build more cars for channel stuffing.

NotApplicable's picture

If I recall, the recession of 2001 was when interest rates dropped to zero on new cars, so the lack of a sales drop isn't surprising.

The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

And we all got a check from President Bush to go spend.  Remember that?  Wasn't it like $1,000.  Shit thats enough for a down payment on a house now....

Headbanger's picture

As I said before. this is bullish for thew repo men business when these "buyers" with 84 month loans learn the resale value of their car is way underwater and they stop payments on it.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Sales are probably way up because of hedonics.  Each car now counts as ten old cars.  Comparing a 2014 Mustang to a 1964 Mustang shows that the new one is worth ten of the old.  Now we have air bags, satellite communications, 89 microprocessors, and almost no emissions.  </sarc>

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Channel Stuffing Chevy, isn't that a country tune?

They roll off from production
A hard day's work for sure
But tell me who's a buyin
That Chevy on the showroom floor?

It looks nice and shiny
But I can't find money for rent
Those channel stuffed Chevys
Are all stuck behind that fence

Those channel stuffed Chevys are stuck behind that fence...

'Guitar solo'

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Drove past the the local Chevy dealer last weekend, lot full of cars and no customers. GO TEAM AMERICA!!!

madcows's picture

Just bought a used Buick Enclave.  Very nice.  We'll see if it has a crap load of recalls or reliability issues.  But, the buick was less than the ford, eurobrands and asian brands.  We'll see if we bought a lemon.  Regardless, it's way fucking nicer than the Dodge Grand Caravans we've owned.  And it sure as hell can't have as many issues as that POS had.  Chevy/GM may suck, and be rolling death traps, but they're better than dodge.  Holy crap did those crap boxes suck.  I guess that's why they're half as much as a toyota or honda or any other minivan brand.

SeattleBruce's picture

"Chevy/GM may suck, and be rolling death traps, but they're better than dodge."

LOL - where do I sign up?!

SeattleBruce's picture


Yay Government Motors...

Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

I work at a Chevy Cadillac dealership in New England, selling cars to folks who inquire over the internet.

Jan and Feb was very slow (weather really did have a lot to do with it) March was awesome, April was really good too and so was May.

Our channels are not bad. Everything is moving and getting sold little by little. (Except Cadillac ELR! Haven't touched one of those yet, luckily we only have 4)

I've been selling GM since 2010 and I've been doing good. The view from here isn't bad.

Never One Roach's picture

Facts make my head hurt.

Emergency Ward's picture

Last year we sold 10 cars for $30,000 apiece, and this year unit sales soared 20% and we sold 12 cars for $20,000 apiece.  Times are good.

SeattleBruce's picture

Next year sales may grow even more - and especially of Obumma gives out more cash for clunkers...

orangegeek's picture

Next Move:  Roll these Q1 car purchases into a tradeable product and call them CBS's - car backed securities.


Grow that economy - ew-ah!!

duo's picture

New "Heavy trucks" will be used to carry unsold cars from place to place.  GS will sell Chevy Cobalt futures, and GDP will skyrocket.

bpj's picture

The whole exercise is to make sure POTUS looks good until some white devil is elected then it's all his/her fault.

Seer's picture

Party Pussy shit.

toddf's picture

I don't know how to interpret this chart.  It's not green, and isn't going up and to the right.  These make no sense.

PlusTic's picture

whatever it takes to get this fraud stock mkt up...we've gone an order of magnitude beyond "full retard" at this point...full "fantasyland" to be more accurate

qqqqtrader's picture

I thinking the seasonally annualized adjusted revised numbers will be better.

young turk's picture

promotions and zero down bullshit to subprime yuts and minorities ? see a huge default on the horizon and how can you reposess from Mexico

Robinhood's picture

Why would they go back to Mexico?

It really pisses me off seeing them in their late model pickup trucks full of kids on welfare at the grocery store buying food with their EBT card.


SeattleBruce's picture

Hope you also get pissed off when you see bankstas rolling 'round the 'hood in their Lamborghinis, Rolls, Porsches, and Maseratis...and buying caviar with rolls of higher denominated FRNs (Benjamins...), because you know how the one (TPTB), leads to the other (dependency class utterly beholden to TPTB...)  Not to mention corporate and military contractor welfare queens - they piss me off too...lazy bums...with the Pimps at the top (CEOs), and just going back for more and more of the fed goobermint's teats...don't they know when to stop (having kids and sucking gooberment teats)?!  What's WRONG with these people?

NoDebt's picture

Sold to whom?  The local dealership lot to slowly rust into the ground waiting for a buyer?

Amish Hacker's picture

Offer car loans at negative interest rates, a la Draghi. Inventory problem solved.

Oldwood's picture

I wish I gave a shit. Just more numbers and what I think, be it right or wrong, will make no difference whatsoever in how the markets react, and which its relevance is only the timing of its eventual crash back to reality, most likely crushing all of us in its fall, participants or not. Damn them all to hell.

The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Those mother fucking "reporters" that spew out tele-prompter bullshit make me sick...

madcows's picture

does TOTAL MV Sales include the used SUV we just bought?

We haven't bought a new car in years.  Way too Frigging expensive.

 Years ago I could buy a new car and drive it til it needed expensive repairs to keep going.  Now, I buy used and try to make it last as long as the new one did.  I pay just as much for a used car now as I did for a new one then, and I tack on a crapload more for expensive maintainance and repairs.

Just another example of our lower standard of living.

ejmoosa's picture

Most of the people I know who are buying vehicles are buying used three years or older venicles.


At some point our much older vehicles(13 or more years) have to be replaced.  But that does not mean going hog wild.


The MSM can play "Happy Days are here again...", but those of us using our own dollars know better. 

indmotor's picture

Just bought a 2014 Cadillac XTS vsport platinum. Only stickered at $70,000.00 dollars! With GM family purchase (-7,000.00) and incentivess (-2,000.00) Car was only $65,000.00 out the door with Mi. 6% sales tax. so after putting 20 grand down (12K trade in plus 8K cash) and with .9% financing for 36 months My payment is ONLY $1,267.00!!!!! And the best part is, The Cadillac dealer here at Cadillac of NOVI, MI. Is so BUSY You pratically have to take a number for a salesman!!  They are the busyest Cadillac Dealer in America. I ask the finance person about business and she said that 98% of all their sales are LEASES!! She has never seen anyone take a payment like mine. They only want the lowest payment possible and stretch it out to 84 months.. Do You think these cars might be grossly over priced?

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

I remember about 10 years ago the sticker was like $48k.

If your payment is $1,267, how much is your auto insurance? 

While I think the "rich" are forced to subsidize almost everything else, at least in auto insurance is there some semblence of a break given (given the care taken and presumably the lessened accident risk)?  From a cost/benefit abnalysis, it's the cost of full coverage auto insurance that prevents me from drving anything that would require such, but maybe I'm mistaken. 

Osmium's picture

That's crazy.  Bought my house wiith 3 acres of land for 57,500 in 1995.  House was built in 1971

oklaboy's picture

Lance, great article. clear, concise, factual.

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

What is missing from the data is the number of sales attributed to corporate, government and rental fleet sales. With ultra low borrowing costs, the carry forward on these groups must be enormous.  A walk around my neighborhood does show a fantastically high number of temporary sales plates, especially in relation to the number of almost non-existant home 'for sale" signs. With a new car and a refinanced house, these are the halcyon days of "net interest to income" days. 

dadcss's picture

I live within earshot of a factory that stamps out metal widgets for new autos.

The plant runs 24/7 for the last 18 months, only stopping for maintenance.

The thing is, I know the channel is stuffed and this factory is running on bank

loans via QE. What a way to run an "economic recovery". So what is a Zerohedger to do?

Well I'm glad you asked, spend the weekends working on the remote property for when SHIF time comes.

Seer's picture

"spend the weekends working on the remote property for when SHIF time comes."

I spend nearly every day working on my property (have a farm started).  I LIVE where I plan to be when TSHTF.  Don't wait!  If there's a community you want to be somewhat established there, and when TSHTF you won't want to look like someone just dropping in.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

8 year old pickup, 10 year old car, 34 yeor old motorcycle. Tsk, I guess I'm a piss poor American consumer and the government stormtroopers will likely send me to the re-education camps first.

Seer's picture

23 year-old car.   21 year-old truck: diesel, no electronics- can work on it myself.  My tractor's my newest vehicle (8 years old).

Dumpster Fire's picture

15 year old Chevy Silverado

7 year old Mustang GT

20 year old Honda Magna VF750.


Mustang has a few electronics but damn it sounds as good as my V4 muscle bike :)



jackstraw001's picture

I have a 13yr old Lexus LS430 I bought for cash and it continues to run a like a champ at 175k miles.  My attitude toward the purchase of anything "new" (with the exception of PMs) has undergone a seachange since 2008.  I refuse to play the bankster game on their own playing field and will never get back on the consumer debt hampster wheel.  I make plenty of fiat paper every year but don't need all the shiny toys to make my pecker feel bigger.  Give me liquidity, hard assets and a nose for buying good stuff on the cheap from overlevered/overextended sheeple.   

Space Animatoltipap's picture

According to MSM this Lance Roberts is just a dirty communist. 

Who was that masked man's picture

Been thinkin' about tradin' in my '57 Chevy sedan-delivery on a new Turdmobile but the wife won't let me.  What should I do?

Seer's picture

Use it to haul stuff (as it was designed to do) or trade it in on a tractor.  Working assets... got rid of "collectable" stuff years ago.

ChargingHandle's picture

I have buddies in this sector. A ridiculously high percentage of the "sales" are people trading in on leases and leasing another $600 per month payment. Very few actually buy the car with financing or buy it straight up like I do. They want the lowest payment possible and with leasing they can "afford" to go big. As for me, I will never have a car payment. Don't miss them at all. 

sessinpo's picture

Just give free GM cars with defective parts and GPS tracking to terrorists.