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Peak Oil Revisited...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Brian Davey via FEASTA blog,

In a lecture to the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy in February of 2014 Steven Kopits, who is the Managing Director of the consultancy, Douglas Westwood explains how conventional “legacy” oil production peaked in 2005 and has not increased since. All the increase in oil production since that date has been from unconventional sources like the Alberta Tar sands, from shale oil or natural gas liquids that are a by-product of shale gas production. This is despite a massive increase in investment by the oil industry that has not yielded any increase in ‘conventional oil’ production but has merely served to slow what would otherwise have been a faster decline.

More specifically the total spend on upstream oil and gas exploration and production from 2005 to 2013 was $4 trillion. Of that $3.5 trillion was spent on the ‘legacy’ oil and gas system. This is a sum of money equal to the GDP of Germany. Despite all that investment in conventional oil production it fell by 1 million barrels a day. By way of comparison investment of $1.5 trillion between 1998 and 2005 yielded an increase in oil production of 8.6 million barrels a day.

Further to this, unfortunately for the oil industry, it has not been possible for oil prices to rise high enough to cover the increasing capital expenditure and operating costs. This is because high oil prices lead to recessionary conditions and slow or no growth in the economy. Because prices are not rising fast enough, and costs are increasing, the costs of the independent oil majors are rising at 2 to 3% a year more than their revenues. Overall profitability is falling and some oil majors have had to borrow and sell assets to pay dividends. The next stage in this crisis has then been that investment projects are being cancelled – which suggests that oil production will soon begin to fall more rapidly.

The situation can be understood by reference to the nursery story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. Goldilocks tries three kinds of porridge – some that is too hot, some that is too cold and some where the temperature is somewhere in the middle and therefore just right. The working assumption of mainstream economists is that there is an oil price that is not too high to undermine economic growth but also not too low so that the oil companies could not cover their extraction costs – a price that is just right. The problem is that the Goldilocks situation no longer describes what is happening – another story provides a better metaphor – that story is ‘Catch 22’. According to Kopits the vast majority of the publically quoted oil majors require oil prices of over $100 a barrel to achieve positive cash flow and nearly a half need more than $120 a barrel. But it is these oil prices that drags down the economies of the OECD economies.

For several years however there have been some countries that have been able to afford the higher prices. The countries that have coped with the high energy prices best are the so called “emerging non OECD countries” and above all China. China has been bidding away an increasing part of the oil production and continuing to grow while higher energy prices have led to stagnation in the OECD economies. (Kopits, 2014)

Now lets put that in a bigger context. In a presentation to the All party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas Charles Hall showed a number of diagrams on slides to express the consequences of depletion and rising energy costs of energy. I have taken just two of these diagrams here – comparing 1970 with what might be the case in 2030. (Hall C. , 2012) What they show is how the economy produces different sorts of stuff – some of the production is consumer goods – either staples (essentials) or discretionary (luxury) goods. The rest of production is devoted to goods that are used in production – investment goods in the form of machinery, equipment, buildings, roads, infrastracture and their maintenance. Some of these investment goods must take the form of energy acquisition equipment. As a society runs up against energy depletion and other problems more and more production must go into energy acquisition, infrastructure and maintenance – less and less is available for consumption, and particularly for discretionary consumption.

Whether the economy would evolve in this way can be questioned. As we seen the increasing needs of the oil and gas sector implies a transfer of resources from elsewhere through rising prices but the rest of the economy cannot actually pay this without crashing. That is what the above diagrams show – a transfer of resources from discretionary consumption to investment in energy infrastructure. But such a transfer would be crushing for the other sectors and their decline will likely drag down the whole economy.

Over the last few years central banks have had a policy of quantitative easing to try to keep interest rates low – the economy cannot pay high energy prices AND high interest rates so, in effect, the policy has been to try to bring down interest rates as low as possible to counter the stagnation. However, this has not really created production growth – it has instead created a succession of asset price bubbles. The underlying trend continues to be one of stagnation, decline and crisis. The severity of the recessions may be variable in different countries because competitive strength in this model goes to those countries where energy is used most efficiently and which can afford to pay somewhat higher prices for energy. Such countries are likely to do better but will not escape the general decline if they stay wedded to the conventional growth model. Whatever the variability this is still a dead end model and at some point people will see that entirely different ways of thinking about economy and ecology are needed – unless they get drawn into conflicts and wars over energy by psychopathic policy idiots. There is no way out of the Catch 22 within the growth economy model. That’s why de-growth is needed.

 

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Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:20 | 4828427 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

Peak Oil Debunked

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ 

It's all set forth in this article - peak oil alarmism is BS...

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:23 | 4828443 joego1
joego1's picture

Sorry, the page you were looking for in the blog Peak Oil Debunked does not exist.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:23 | 4828447 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Exactly.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:25 | 4828452 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

One look at the chart shows the real problem.  Staples.   We are spending WAY too much on staples.

I suggest we switch to paper clips.  Reuseable on eco friendly.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:34 | 4828472 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Do they come with pink slime ?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:35 | 4828621 dryam
dryam's picture

Peak Cheap Oil is the key concept, not Peak Oil. 

We are clearly past Peak Cheap Oil, and this is the main reason why the world will be in a state of contraction into perpetuity no matter how much money the central banks around the world print.  Growth is over with.  Get over it. 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:44 | 4828643 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

It's ironic but the concept that cheap oil no longer exists sort of parallels that fact that your blog doesn't exist either.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:41 | 4828773 That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

Goldilocks is staying for a week, and she ran out of "just right" after two days...

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 00:01 | 4829073 0z
0z's picture

This is from the "Peak-oil debunked" Page:

DISCLAIMER FOR IDIOTS: This site officially accepts that oil is finite, and will peak someday. 

That is funny! 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 00:53 | 4829139 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Plausible deniability at its finest...

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 06:03 | 4829307 Postal
Postal's picture

I've been told that I'm "just right"--and I'm sure I can keep her satisfied for more than two days...

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:44 | 4828644 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

The real peak is worldwide peak government interference and its drag on the private economy.

If the cost of government is 53% of the economy in the US, imagine what the total incurred cost of the world's 70+ trillion dollar economy.

The great waste that is government is a major driving force in the high price and diminishing availability of oil.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:03 | 4828689 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Uh Huh.....so if the economy REALLY TAKES off when we deregulate everything it will require EVEN MORE OIL.  When demand skyrockets so does depletion and price.

If that's what it takes for you to believe in the physics of Peak Cheap Oil....I'd be willing to deregulate EVERYTHING just to see that happen.

Humans without boundaries.....THAT'S worked in the past. 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:14 | 4828719 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Humans can exist without boundaries? Where and how?

I see boundaries all the time, I can't produce without having some dickhead being jealous. I can't say anything without having to worry about hurting your pussified feelings. 

 

Humans without boundaries, shut the fuck up you little bitch.

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:41 | 4828899 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Ok...I know you're a little sensitive now....I mean being ass raped and all.  That kind of pain must last a while and makes you grumpy to boot.  I was using sarcasm against the stupid notion that if we totally unfetter the economy and you producers that somehow we would get back to $30 dollar oil and $1.50 gasoline.  You know..."Drill Baby Drill" ?  But I'm not surprised you didn't get it.....seeing as how your itty bitty feelings are getting hurt everyday by all those mean 'ol politically correct liberals.  I guess it would be insensitive of me to ask you in your present state of butt-hurtness how's that voting thing working out for you and your side?

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 04:07 | 4829255 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Damn, Dude.  I don't know NidStyles political/economic views...but if he's liberal, should we be mocking those that are facing the guillotine?

What are the ethics of mocking those that are mere cannon-fodder...should we mock them, warn them, mourn them?  What would be the approved, government PC approach to this clash of ethics be?

How should we reply to the mind-dead zombies that make shallow questions that lead to such deep pools?

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:16 | 4829453 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

"How should we reply to the mind-dead zombies that make shallow questions that lead to such deep pools?"

You could probably start by recognizing an AnCap flag and what it means.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 10:07 | 4829837 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The flag is also a hint about the bearers grasp of reality...

Hey, it is easy to come up with a pretend world where everything is just so...

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:37 | 4830410 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

I'm not AnCap but I like their rainbows and unicorns better than the statist variety.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:45 | 4830443 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Fair enough, but the state is here to stay, it is a byproduct of human civilization...

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 15:05 | 4830892 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Wake up.

It is a "byproduct" of animal social organization.

Nature gave us sex, man created lingerie.

Nature gave us social hierarchies, man created government.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 15:13 | 4830924 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The state was created by those wishing to project power. And history has shown us that there is no shortage of volunteers lining up to try their hand at projecting power or die trying...

Get used to it, the state is a product of our own advancement. Unless, you think the hunter gatherer thingie is for you. Just don't get on the wrong side of the Tribal Elders and the local Shaman....

You are a hopelessly idealistic twit... 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 15:00 | 4830872 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

You are a one trick pony.

My point was how much of a resource, oil, is wasted by government in its quest to steal, kill, and destroy, all without producing jack shit in terms of wealth in return.

What is the ROI on the government's use of oil?

It is NEGATIVE.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 15:23 | 4830966 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Ever occur to you that one of the primary purposes of the US military is so that you can exchange fiatcos for easily accesible oil?

And that if you couldn't do so that your standard of living would drop by 50% or so.....

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:14 | 4828850 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Peak Cheap Oil is the key concept, not Peak Oil. "

We are getting close to the Peak:

1. Oil prices have been stuck at 100 because oil companies can't increase the price because any higher, and it will trigger demand destruction

2. Oil companies have run out of new places to drill that can produce Oil below $100

3. The Low cost producers are reaching state three depletion. KSA is now using CO2 injection to keep Ghawar alive. They been using horizontal drilling for nearly a decade and its run its course.

4. Oil majors have cut Cap-Ex spending this year. They are abandoning long term projects that that 4 to 8 years to bring Oil to the Market and now are just focusing on projects already underway.

Peak make occure as soon as this year or within the next 4 years. If a global recession occurs that it might mask the peak.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 10:08 | 4829843 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The peak is not an event, it is a process...

And we are well into that process, 4th inning or so...

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 13:28 | 4830544 UrbanBard
UrbanBard's picture

You are involved in Socialist thinking. Debunked Club of Rome "Limits of Growth" thinking.

1.Oil companies don't have the ability to raise prices; there are too many factors. Governments and environmentalists have this ability by restricting places where companies can explore. LOL

What is demand destruction? Is it market information which would lower profits and taxes for oil companies? Or is it that this would damage the FED's ability to prop up equity values? That is, it would ruin the Keynesian con game?

I would appreciate a crash, because it would end manipulation and we would finally learn the true cost of everything. (Oil in terms of gold has never been lower.)

2. Many places to find oil have been placed off limits by the US Dept of the Interior and the Environmentalists: both American coasts, ANWR, the Colorado River shale deposits which are large enough to supply America for a hundred years, the Monterrey shale deposits in California, most exploration on public lands, etc.

3. It is a natural process that fields will decline until a new technology arrives to make production cheaper. Most the oil (90 to 95%) is still in the ground. Time will replenish most fields as it draws oil from local Shale deposits, but not fast enough to maintain a low price.

4. The Oil majors are incompetent at finding new oil, because they have no expertize in Fracking. Let them die.

New technologies always shake up the majors in any industry. Enormous amounts of natural gas are locked in Methane Hydrates on America's coasts, but the technology is not there to cheaply tap it. Japan will be inventing this technology in the next decade, because it needs energy for which it does not pay foreign exchange.

This is just markets in process. It is how people find substitutes.

People like you never expected the Shale oil and gas boom. You were unable to prevent this energy source from coming to market, because the exploration has only been on private lands. There may be much larger deposits on public lands which we are not allowed to explore for. Then you say that the lack of finding new fields means that we are running out of oil. Nonsense.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 15:28 | 4830904 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hee, hee, hee....

Clearly you are fool that has bought the standard lies hook line and sinker, or worse yet, a paid shill....

This ain't about ideology or the projection thereof...

BTW, the price oil in gold is much higher now than anytime between 1986 and 2000 (aside from the Gulf War I spike) and the correction in 2008-2009 is clearly over...

Taking todays Brent/Gold fix, i.e. 2.75 gr per barrel, one sees that before 2000, this was only exceeded during the Tanker War and the mid-70s....

So quit making shit up...

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:57 | 4828814 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

Sorry - not sure why that link wouldn't work.

http://www.peakoildebunked.blogspot.com

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:08 | 4828886 prains
prains's picture

it didn't work because you're a fucking .gov tool you fucking loser!!!! propoganda only needs to be in one place...up your ass.

 

 

if we haven't reached peak fucking oil why are my buds stripping millions of metric tons of earth a few hours away from where I live to dredge up a pile of shit sand that has been soaked in the worst grade of hydrocarbon. Cleaning it with what little is left of our drinking water, piling the waste in giant fucking ponds of shit that will never disappear!! If we're not scraping the bottom of the barrel to get at this shit then YOU ARE A FUCKING R'TARD and there's no more Chablis for you

 

 

edit: Oh and I forgot.....they pile those giant mounds of shit right beside the Athabasca River. I'm not sure who's the bigger r'tard you or the fucking dumbass who dreamed up that idea

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:43 | 4828896 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Yep, no problem . . . as long as the cost to secure the flow of oil from the Middle East doesn't show up at the pump. (And this was eight years ago, when the price of oil was $60 a barrel, not $100.)

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=11520

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:42 | 4828901 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It worked for me. Maybe Big Oil is fucking with them.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 23:45 | 4829042 malek
malek's picture

It doesn't work if you are using a referrer blocker.

Klick on the "Go to blog homepage" link on the lower left, and then it works as the error page in on the same domain as the target: your referrer blocker allows the referrer in that case.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 04:12 | 4829256 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

WTF?  "your referrer blocker allows the referrer in that case."

Too intenetal for me...(typing in www.spankwire.com)

 

Sat, 06/07/2014 - 13:47 | 4832731 malek
malek's picture

same domain allows referrer, usually:

going from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-05/peak-oil-revisited to http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ is to a different domain, so referrer (the URL you were before) is blocked (or given blank?)

going from http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ to http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ (crazy but really!) is same domain, so referrer is transmitted.

For unknown stupid reasons the peakoildebunked.blogspot.com website checks for a set referrer, otherwise gives you that "page not found" error.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:23 | 4828444 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Well, the article is really about peak cheap oil, not peak oil.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:33 | 4828467 Matt
Matt's picture

I think you are misunderstanding. Higher prices means less demand, so total production will be less.

Peak is about maximum flow rate (production) and has nothing to do with running out of supply.

With some serious changes to our economy and way of life, oil production may be able to increase for the next 30 years; however, it is a mathematical certainty that there will be a point of maximum rate of oil production, and after that point, total production will decline.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:57 | 4828675 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

You do realise the world uses around 90 million barrels of oil per day or 32 billion barrels a year based on a population of 7 billion. The worlds population is forecast to rise to 9 billion by 2050. As once third world countries become more and more prosperous and non-industrialized ones become industrialized the rate of consumption will go up logarithmically. The last major massive oil field to be dicovered was Bakken as far as I am aware.

Watch professor Allan Bartlett's lecture on the "The most dangerous thing facing the human race is our lack of understandning of the exponential function". It spells out all you need to know, crystal clear with simple mathematics. The worlds population is poised for a cataclismic fall which really shouldn't come as a suprise to anyone.

The bottom line is this. The only thing supporting the rate of growth of the human population is cheap oil. The rate cannot be sustained any other way. either the abundance of cheap oil increases as the population grows or the population falls. Once the population falls the problem of cheap oil will be resolved.

We are going to see it in our lifetimes I think.  

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:20 | 4828725 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

consume =/= use

 

Using would imply something productive being done with it. I see all sorts of wasted applications thanks to the fed and the gubermints. Nothing a few low yield nukes can't solve though right? Wonder how many barrels those took to build and maintain... 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 10:11 | 4829861 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

So you should be arbiter of what productive oil use is?

Not that I don't agree with your premise, but who the fuck are you to tell anyone what to do? Especially given your political ideals....

And that in nutshell, is why you are an intellectually bankrupt blowhard...

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:27 | 4828746 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

...and the Bakken isn't all its cracked up to be.

To supply its neighbor state with enough oil for 1 year North Dakota would have to drill and frack at least 116 shale oil wells and let them produce for 30 years.

 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:48 | 4830458 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Don't be so hard on the Bakken, it is a great field....

But great fields are not game changers....

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:48 | 4828469 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

If you had been paying attention for the past 7 or so years, you'd know that's what peak oil has been trying to communicate.  Our western ecology has been based on cheap oil.  Since 2007, that's been over.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:38 | 4828581 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I would modify what you wrote slightly - the ecology of perpetual growth has been based on cheap oil, and not only cheap oil but ever cheaper and more plentiful oil. The North Sea and Alaska kept the party going for awhile, but the era of cheaper oil and perpetual growth is over.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 13:13 | 4830521 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

What happens to the growth in demand from 3rd world countries in the East as they catch up to our living standards.  I don't expect less global demand even considering the west is in decline and may use less energy in the future.

Mon, 06/09/2014 - 14:15 | 4837785 mkkby
mkkby's picture

They'll never get to our living standards.  There isn't enough oil. 

For a while, their highest profit uses will be able to afford the higher prices.  But as the price ratchets up, more and more uses will become unprofitable and go bankrupt.  That will keep the game going for a long time.  They'll never be able to waste it like we do -- everyone having huge SUVs and inefficient heating.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 07:15 | 4829373 Element
Element's picture

 

 

Really? 2007?

Late 2008 into Q1 2009 oil fell to an anti-peak oil of $32 USD ... which seemed rather peak-cheap at that time ... http://www.forecast-chart.com/chart-crude-oil.html ... and which resulted in an explosion in global economic activity and massive renewed industrial minerals demand that followed particularly within Asia (where overwhelmingly most of humanity live). Energy supply has never been a story of ever-rising prices, it's always been an extremely dynamic and adaptive feedback and the adaptation options are and will remain immense, for the rest of this century. So stiff upperlip old boy.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:49 | 4830464 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And just how long did that did last?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:34 | 4828471 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

And peak humanity, one way or another.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:36 | 4828477 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

TPTB have a app for that.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:12 | 4828711 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

Agenda 21

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:37 | 4828482 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

True, but they are nearly the same thing. Read some of Gail Tverberg's stuff. She's rigorous and scary at the same time. You'll be left with the sense we're deep in the woods on this one.

FWIW I think she's right; watch for a rapid shut-down.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:08 | 4828545 PeakOil
PeakOil's picture

Indeed sobering.  Our Finite World (Gail's blog)

In a similar vein see discussions here;

Economic Undertow

Dimitry Orlov

Doomstead Diner

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:51 | 4828667 Rantabulous
Rantabulous's picture

I think you can add Nicole Foss of The Automatic Earth to this list. 

I think she has been right on the money to date.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:05 | 4828694 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Our Finite World....The Automatic Earth....and Clusterfuck Nation (James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency) are must reads.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 05:36 | 4829296 natty light
natty light's picture

John Michael Greer

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:51 | 4830468 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Dave Cohen at Decline_of_the_empire

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:13 | 4828845 samsara
samsara's picture

I would also like to mention Nicole "Stoneleigh" Foss from AutomaticEarth
http://www.theautomaticearth.com

Here's some of her primers
http://www.theautomaticearth.com/category/primers/

I remember her and Ilargi from OilDrumCanada days.

(And GailTheActuary is great too)

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:45 | 4828906 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Cheap is in the eye (or pocketbook) of the beholder. Gasoline at $1.00 per gallon is too expensive for over half of the planet's population. Gasoline at $100.00 per gallon is no problem for Jamie Dimon or Barry Soetoro, neither of whom have to pay the bill themselves.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 01:17 | 4829162 Seer
Seer's picture

Problem is is that of economies of scale.  TPTB's consumption absolutely requires everyone else to keep consuming in order that the oil system is able to actually work.  As this article notes, and it's a big thing, there's M&O that really starts dragging on things.  As more and more consumers drop out of the [rat] race there is less and less to prop up all that M&O.  Think of how junk mail props up the USPS, think of what it would cost to mail stuff if not for all that crap that creates the volume.

More and more people will start realizing what "economies of scale in reverse" means.

Regarding "peak" stuff, another key measure is EXPORT, that if less and less is exported and you're an importer, well...

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:30 | 4828461 Magooo
Magooo's picture

Can you point out specifics of where he is wrong -  are you saying conventional oil did NOT peak in 2005?

 

Can you explain why oil went to 147 a barrel in 2008? 

 

Can you explain why oil is always over 100 - surely if there was a lot left oil should be far lower.

 

Also perhaps you could explain this what 100+ oil over a sustained period would do to growth --- if this is what a 10 increase does:

 

HIGH PRICED OIL DESTROYS GROWTH

According to the OECD Economics Department and the International Monetary Fund Research Department, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices.  http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/high_oil04sum.pdf

 

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:37 | 4828478 Matt
Matt's picture

Peak Oil is a myth. By 2440 we will be able to produce, every single day, a volume of oil equal to the mass of the entire planet. In fact, the greatest limiting factor may be peak consumption; we may not be able to consume oil fast enough for it to be recycled back into new oil. 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:39 | 4828487 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Excellent! And where do the unicorns figure into this?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:33 | 4828614 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Excellent! And where do the unicorns figure into this?"

 

That idiot gives birth to one out of his ass every morning.

....with Skittles.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:38 | 4828892 prains
prains's picture

yet he gets greens up the wazoo......we haven't reached peak r'tard......come see the oil sands in Alberta for yourself and then ask a simple question.......if oil is so plentiful

 

WHY the fuck would anyone do this to the earth?

 

but you won't because you can't spell Alberta let alone find it on a map....stoopid is what stoopid does, drinks slurpees and jerks off. Welcome to 'merika!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 00:51 | 4829136 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

If I go there they will have to do more of it to provide the energy needed for my transportation.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:10 | 4829442 prains
prains's picture

...in 'merika day have da strategy whatchm'call it reserves for mergency like stuff

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:48 | 4828511 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  we may not be able to consume oil fast enough for it to be recycled back into new oil. 

Sounds like a perpetual oil machine.    Do you have an IPO planned?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:49 | 4828512 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Now that was funny! The mass of the Earth, that is great. I love magic Physics. For just a second I thought you were serious ha! Love it, mass of the Earth every year. Love it.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:53 | 4828522 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

And, all by 2440.

You would hope that in 400 years the human race would have found alternate energy sources.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:51 | 4828517 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

And we will do it from home, using the computer, like his sister in law, who makes $2047 a day!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:01 | 4828543 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Excellent Snark! +1!

The "volume=mass" was a nice touch, because it makes you sound like a real inbred American science denier.

But I'm way too quick for you, son.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:11 | 4828565 Matt
Matt's picture

Yeah, 2 or 3 years ago there was some people seriously pushing that abiotic oil would solve all our problems, that it was gushing out in Alaska or some such nonsense, and that we would never hit peak oil. I did the math based on compounding growth of oil production based on historical rates. Just didn't feel up to searching for it and copy-pasting.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:17 | 4828578 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

I wish what you are saying was true.  Unfortunately, the IEA does not support your hypothesis.  You might want to track the depletion rates on the current shale oil wells.  You might want to look at the decline rates of big conventional fields like those in Mexico and the North Sea.  You might also want to consider the fact that the IEA has determined that only 4% of the Monterey shale oil is recoverable.  To put that in context, the Monterey shale was supposed to allow for expansion of U.S. production out to about 2025.  It represented two thirds of our reserves.

 

I think the German Army has a handle on this thing.  They suggest we plant a garden.

 

It’s a long read, but it pretty much tells you where we are.

 

http://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:11 | 4828705 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

That's a GREAT document.  Read it last year.

Everyone who reads it should pay CLOSE attention to page 9....Figure 1.  "THE STRATEGIC ELLIPSE"

And then try to remember the War in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Arab Spring, and the Crimean and Ukraine crisis.

This is where your sons and daughters are destined to die.....and for some....the other sons and daughters who didn't die there the first time around.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 07:22 | 4829386 Element
Element's picture

Careful, pretty sure you end up on a watch-list if you grow a garden, think they banned it as a subversive act some years back ... something about spreading black spots on the bananas if I remember it correctly.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 00:50 | 4829134 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

The /sarc is strong with this one.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:51 | 4828518 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

there was a recent zh article with a lot of photos showing where channel-stuffed oil barrels are stored

unused

unloved

filling up tarmacs and parking lots

filling up empty malls

as far as the eye can see

stacks and stacks of oil drums

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:53 | 4828523 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

Funny, until you understand that a barrel of oil yields about 20 gallons of gasoline and then you look around you on the freeway and realize each one of them is a barrel of oil every fill up.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:18 | 4828731 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

They cost even more to build, which was his point. Building things to just say you built it is a retarded notion and only occurs with FIATSCO ran economies. 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 02:32 | 4829214 Rory_Breaker
Rory_Breaker's picture

I do not understand why your posts are being downvoted. Building shit we do not need because the economy is running on distorted feedback signals is one of the many things making peak oil worse to deal with.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:33 | 4828468 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Looks like little Marky boy was just debunked.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:06 | 4828552 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Peak Oil Debunked

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ 

It's all set forth in this article - peak oil alarmism is BS...

 

You're a fucking idiot.  Peak oil is not, nor has it ever been, about running out of oil period.  It's about running out of the cheap stuff in the amounts needed to keep the Global Ponzi alive which keeps this fake Utopia that the Elites have built for themselves and the middle class.

Peak Cheap Energy is here....it is irefutable and it is getting worse each and every year....and will continue to do so until the world reaches a much lower energy level based economy.  But there will be an increased number of financial and societal crises before we get there and a war or two on a regional if not global scale along the way as well.

Strap your balls on people.  Shit REALLY gets real after 2020....when the combined weight of Peak Ponzi, Peak Debt, Peak Old Farts Retiring and Peak Corruption meets an even NASTIER Peak Cheap Energy by then.

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:47 | 4828654 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Dude, you're a genius, you just discovered a new viable energy source.

We'll just strap gas collection bags to all the Peak Old Farts and collect a bonanza of methane until all the baby boomers pass on, or is it gass on.

Now that's IPO worthy.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:12 | 4828714 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Fracking Depends !!

Pure Evil....you are Pure EVIL Genius !!!!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 00:58 | 4829146 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

If that works, don't worry, I got North America covered.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:02 | 4828824 samsara
samsara's picture

Actually, Peak Oil (ie Hubberts Peak) is the point at which a well, or field of wells,(region, world) reaches it's highest daily output.

Here's a quick primer on what it is and what it is Not.

http://www.resilience.org/primer#

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 23:51 | 4829051 malek
malek's picture

You mean like Global Warming was never about warming, but about "too fast" climate change for any reason whatsoever? (And what "too fast" is, decides the eye of the beholder.)

Hmm, I love the smell of doublethink i the evening.

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:20 | 4828586 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

It's all set forth in this article - peak oil alarmism is BS...

man thank god your right, I just paid 3.85 a gallon for gas.  Can u imagine what I'd pay if we weren't beatin them suadi's in oil production? HOT DAM!!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 23:10 | 4828960 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

If you are going to troll, you are gonna have to better than that son....

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 06:04 | 4829309 caShOnlY
Fri, 06/06/2014 - 07:25 | 4829392 doctor10
doctor10's picture

Its called "EROI" -Energy Return On Investment.

Basically 1860-1960 every one dollar invested in energy returns $100.Think Beverly Hillbilliies. Oil fountaining out of the ground. Being scooped out of branches/streams Western Pennsylvania.  1:100

1979-its down to 1:10-12 or so; traditional oil drilling is failing at that point; offshore drilling technology starts-peak return by late 1990's-EROI then rises to 1:30-35 or so. Starts to fall 2000

Currently back down to 1:10-12

Problem is that fracking/shale are all 1:6-8-AND it appears that a "First World Society" requires 1:8-10 at least to exist.

Nat Gas-BTW -is excellent. At the wellhead 1:60-80; falls when storage, transport/distribution etc taken into account

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:18 | 4828432 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Is this guy trying to say we can't have perpetual increasing growth forever?!?  

HA!   No Nobel Prize for YOU!  

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:40 | 4828490 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

You'd think he'd be worried about that. You know, you can't get grants these days to study mass suicide.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:36 | 4828622 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"You know, you can't get grants these days to study mass suicide."

LOL !!   +1000

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:22 | 4828441 Cattender
Cattender's picture

it's a Recovery.. just LOOK at the stock market!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:25 | 4828451 Colonel Walter ...
Colonel Walter E Kurtz's picture

If we are finally discovering manipulation in every commodity market, I would have to assume oil would be the one with the most manipulation. What is the real price of oil compared to the manipulated paper price? 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:30 | 4828608 Matt
Matt's picture

No one knows the real price of anything. That's part of the problem. People have been making decisions off of bad information for quite some time now.

Unless middle-men are really taking a big chunk, we can see how much money the oil companies are making at current prices. If anything, I'd say oil prices are being mispriced/manupulated to the downside.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:49 | 4828916 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Scsry thing is...it could be much higher.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:28 | 4828454 joego1
joego1's picture

You mean we can't piss oil away sitting in huges lines of cars waiting to go to 7/11 to get a slurpy? We can't wage useless wars either? I hope we can still keep the thousands of huge frieghters full of chinese crap coming! What's this world coming to anyway?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:40 | 4828488 Matt
Matt's picture

Don't worry, if need be, those Chinese freighters can just strap on some giant kite sails and come over on the wind.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:40 | 4828492 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

<shudder>

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 06:15 | 4829316 Ocean22
Ocean22's picture

the chickens have finally come home to roost.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:27 | 4828455 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

"You're damned if you do, and you're damned if you don't."

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:27 | 4828456 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Jimmy Carter was right, no?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:41 | 4828494 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

He was and he's still being punished for it.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:41 | 4828635 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Well...we reached domestic Peak Oil around 1970....and good 'ol Jimmy saw it for what it was.  Too bad he was such a bad President that the American Sheeple didn't listen to him.

But HEEEEYYYYY.....here comes Ronnie Ray-Gun and the Star Wars gang....and it's "MORNING IN AMERICA AGAIN"  Why hell.....open up that pipeline in Alaska and America is BACK ON TRACK to be that shining city on a hill.

Paid for by bank deregulation, and Ponzi-nomics.

Now....here's the bill.

Suck it future generations.  I'm a Baby Boomer.....I've got a Tee-Time coming up.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 23:04 | 4828939 Matt
Matt's picture

Also, P2 (secret Masons of Rome) spread rumors that Carter's brother was financing Libyan Terrorists a couple weeks prior to the election, leading to a shift in the polls.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:35 | 4828462 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

`Mark, I agree. 10 million plus barrels a day are out of bounds by govermnet restriction, epa, technollogy (depth,old). not to mention up and coming bio possibiliyites.  pleanty of oil.

 

Not American had it right, it's peak cheap oil. Not peak oil.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:55 | 4828527 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

Foolishness.  Troll.  (re: plenty of oil)

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:48 | 4828650 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Mark, I agree. 10 million plus barrels a day are out of bounds by govermnet restriction, epa, technollogy (depth,old). not to mention up and coming bio possibiliyites.  pleanty of oil.

 

Idiot......we use 19 Million barrels a day NOW !!

In 2013, the United States consumed a total of 6.89 billion barrels of petroleum products, an average of 18.89 million barrels per day.1 This total includes about 0.32 billion barrels of biofuels.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=33&t=6

That's about all our economy can handle.....we are in a depression....we don't need more at the present moment.  So we pump that 10 million extra barrels a day out of the ground and where would it go?  If we exported it....it just gets gobbled up by the emerging economies.  It would not last that long at all.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:50 | 4828800 samsara
samsara's picture

Don't confuse them with facts jumbo.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:37 | 4828465 new game
new game's picture

at some point, the inflection point, it will take half of the energy to get the energy. i think i read some where that we are at 75/25 (new discoveries)...

can't wait for max be mad for earl, and we all be hiding out and viving...

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:34 | 4828470 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

I think we are at peak oil DEMAND.  we are a few steps away from replacing automobile and plane fuel for good.  Rossi, dekaflion, Tesla etc.  the sad part is when we finially figure out a cost effective replacement I think it'll be the start of a global war.  Middle east will be in full revolt as will Venezuela and lots of africa.  Once oil revenues deplete the SHTF quickly as entire global balance will be thrown off.  Only can hope it happens gradually and not overnight.  We are one amazing invention away from chaos.  

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:44 | 4828504 Matt
Matt's picture

"the sad part is when we finially figure out a cost effective replacement I think it'll be the start of a global war."

You really think OPEC has the capacity to invade a major power? Most oil rich countries squandered all their oil wealth on social programs, and have nothing to show for it but a large population.

More likely they will just have mass exodii to food producing nations, as legal or undocumented immigrants.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:58 | 4828532 Five8Charlie
Five8Charlie's picture

Replacing aviation fuel? With what? Cooking oil? Oil from some biological source? Do the math on the amount of land required to grow the crops required to do this. It can't be done - just for aircraft, never mind cars, would require about a quarter of the U.S.'s arable land. And aviation fuel usage is about 3% of auto fuel.

Fuel from algae? Vaporware.

Electric power? Maybe for cars, not for airplanes. The energy density of any type of electric energy storage just isn't there. There is no silver bullet. Where will the electricity come from? Coal? That's subject to the same depletion as any other fossil fuel. Nuclear? Ask the folks in Japan about that deal with the devil.

Enjoy your life. Live the best way you can. Don't waste time, effort, and energy on stupid, useless shit.

It's coming. I'm going to get a beer.

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:09 | 4828557 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

well the good news is that we dont actually need cars, planes, or 18 wheeler trucks to survive.  we do need trains, cargo ships, and motorbikes, and these are super efficient.  little more than a single gallon of fuel can move 1 metric ton of freight between europe and america.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 06:54 | 4829351 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

Once populations drop to 19th century levels, 19th century infrastructure will support it. When the cascade begins, it will probably drop us below that base line. That probability keeps me up at night.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:18 | 4828583 Matt
Matt's picture

"Rossi, dekaflion, Tesla"

He is referring to cold fusion and 0-point energy, not biofuels.

However, what e-Cat most likely is, is exothermic reactions. The copper present in the nickel is simply drawn out, there is no actual fusion taking place.

Here is another take on that idea, using oxygen and aluminum, and providing 3000 Km range per charge with a 100 Kg cell, drawback being it requires being sent back to Alcoa to recharge:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/electric-car-with-massive-range-in-dem...

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:20 | 4828860 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

I'm not saying I believe in any of the mentioned replacements for oil per say.

I do think the cold fusion thing is real because there is too many independent scientists replicating and producing excess energy (to various degrees). Even so it may not amount to useful tech.

Tesla cars are prob two design generations away from serious contenders to replace combustion cars.

My point is we are closer then ever to coming up with an invention to replace combustion. Battery tech is improving, molecular building blocks, graphene, Bucky balls, etc. so many more promising techs on the horizon. All it takes is one and the oil complex is done. And I think that one invention idea is on the horizon out there somewhere.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:59 | 4830495 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Lost you at the Cold Fusion thingie...

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:59 | 4828679 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"It's coming. I'm going to get a beer."

Save the energy and the expense and make your own.

Let me know when it's done.....I'll have one with you.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:09 | 4828700 Five8Charlie
Five8Charlie's picture

Of course, it's home brew. 5 gallons of ale bubbling in the cellar right now. Bottling this week-end. Ready to drink by the first of July. The one I'm drink now is a dark ale (SchwartzBier) from last December.

 

Gotta walk the talk.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:53 | 4828921 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Damn..now I'm REALLY thirsty!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:51 | 4828663 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"I think we are at peak oil DEMAND."

Tell China and India that.  Oil is global...so is demand.  Everyone wants the American Dream of the Middle Class.  And the Elites are happy to sell you that dream.  And happy to send your sons and daughters off to die for it.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 22:14 | 4828848 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

that one amazing invention will end up being a combination of robotics and 3d printing

think that one through for a moment and consider the sea change in logistics that brings to the table

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 23:08 | 4828955 Matt
Matt's picture

Talk about disruptive technology. If a local tradesman can make everything your town desires out of steel, and another tradesmen makes anything you want that is make of fabric, and a third makes everything you could want that is electronic, there will be a lot of unemployed people, a massive tax revenue short fall, collapse in pensions.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:39 | 4829531 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

give it another 20 years and "Star Trek" replicators won't look so far fetched

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 01:06 | 4829154 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

How much oil does it cost to produce those whizbang newfangled inventions of which you speak?  The charging stations?  The energy to produce all that electricity?...

Some day the last star will die and our universe will flicker out into massive darkness without a single point of light to be seen anywhere ever again.  Things end.

Sat, 06/07/2014 - 00:45 | 4832007 Seeing Red
Seeing Red's picture

Rossi & Dekaflion are scams.  I've done my homework, btw.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:35 | 4828474 new game
new game's picture

ah, fuck it and go buy that suburban-you deserve it cause your an exceptional fat ass merican...

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:42 | 4828497 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I'm waiting for them to come out with 22" spinners for that. Then yes imma hitting that bitch.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:41 | 4828495 Addibrux
Addibrux's picture

Oil is abiotic. We're the next batch.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:21 | 4828589 Matt
Matt's picture

If we can get more iron filings and sulfer into the Pacific, with the ocean acidification, we may be able to get some really great algae blooms going. If we can figure out how to get it to all layer nicely on the bottom of the ocean, in a few hundred million years humans, or whatever successor species there is, may have the oil and coal to get a second shot at making it into space.

If oil is abiotic, you still need to get hydrocarbons down into a subduction zone so they can get the heat and pressure needed to make oil.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:44 | 4828641 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

"Hydrocarbon" - Many hydrocarbons occur in nature. In addition to making up fossil fuels, they are present in trees and plants, as, for example, in the form of pigments called carotenes that occur in carrots and green leaves. 

 

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/278321/hydrocarbon

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:43 | 4828501 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

$125 oil by end of year say economists at a recent Petrol Conference in Houston.

 

Who knows. But more wars mean higher prices for sure. As Rumsfeld said, "Oil is the lifeblook of the military."

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:52 | 4828668 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Who knows. But more wars mean higher prices for sure. As Rumsfeld said, "Oil is the lifeblook of the military.""

No...the blood of our children sent off to die is their lifeblood.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 01:09 | 4829156 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

That isn't really true anymore with drones and robots and such.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:47 | 4828507 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Well this is BS the end of the stone age was not the end of stones, it was technology. The end of the oil age will be the same thing. Hate to tell yall this but the sky is not falling and the technology is currently being developed to up the conventional oil recovery from 5-10% to 70%. Let that sink in and think about it....

If we have been pumping oil from the mideast since the 1950's and have taken <10% of the reserves and we have the technology to recover 70%........ for the current price!

Let it sink in for a moment and you will realize that we will never run out of oil. We will just run out of uses for oil....

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:51 | 4828519 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  for the current price

Isn't that basically the problem?    Everything is built around oil priced in the 50's NOT oil priced in the current price.  

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:24 | 4828592 Matt
Matt's picture

Yeah, if Western society could adapt to paying four times, even ten times as much for oil, I'm sure we could keep the growth training going for a few more decades.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:54 | 4828670 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Well....that's what ZIRP and NIRP are trying to alleviate.

Let's see how that works out in 5 years.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:54 | 4828526 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Luckylogger...., again, where are the unicorns?

We DO NOT have teen years. First: Natural gas [2022??] followed by oil. Electricity will be a slow decline.

 

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 19:59 | 4828534 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

Electricity will go fast.  Takes a lot of oil to maintain a grid. The new smart meters supposedly will replace a lot of service vehicles (and their crews)... until you look at the 900mHz RF to IP aggregation / mux boxes and realize the whole system will last as long as that cheap Taiwan-made muffin fan that keeps it below 180 degrees all day.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:57 | 4828673 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Not to mention the government mandated personal brown outs or blackouts just for YOUR home when you've exceeded your monthly allowance.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 09:15 | 4829511 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Now that will really deflate the global porn industry.

 

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:37 | 4828624 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Proof?
Statoil just put on a presentation for the Norwegian people that give a shit and they presented a plan to extract 70% of the oil out of a traditional salt dome/ sandstone oil formation...
The same thing we have been drilling for 130 years. If we can increase the production even half of that amount out of traditional fields then just imagine how long it will last...........
Aly Anne, Ally Anne, the sky is falling, get in your bunker because the neighbors are going to come begging for your gallon of gas.....
NOT
It is a joke, people have been predicting this stuff since 1970.
I read in 1970 that we would run out of oil in 1985................
Guess what....

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 21:46 | 4828788 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Why exactly now?  Why not 5 or 10 yrs ago, when the North Sea was clearly dying.

No new processes arrived in the past 5 years.  If 70% recovery was going to happen, it would have started a decade ago.  You do realize Ghawar is now on CO2 injection?  That's the final stage of enhanced recovery.

But you CAN get more oil from a field that has been drained.  The oil that remains down there can be gotten.  You can drill a 10 million dollar hole to get that coke can sized pore of oil in the sandstone that had no permeability to anything adjacent. 

You CAN get 70%.  You just have to be willing to burn 3 barrels to get 1 barrel out.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 01:43 | 4829180 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Technology is moving as fast in the oil industry as it is in the aapl industry...............

You guys can believe in your peak oil bs if you want but 

This used to be a trading blog and I woulod recomend not to trade on the peak oil theory... 

You will loose money............

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!