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The S&P 500 Nears 1950 - Goldman Sachs' June 2015 Target

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we noted in the pre-open, the "BTFATH mentality" will be alive in well' and sure enough Goldman Sachs' S&P 500 Target for June 2015 was 1950, we just reached it 11 months early (1949.25 highs to be exact). Their corresponding target for 10Y yields at that level of S&P is 3.50% (so we are 90bps lower) and earnings expectations to support that price was $120 per share (dramatically higher than the current level). Goldman's 2014 Target is 3% lower than the current level. Nothing to see here, move along...

 

Mission Accomplished-er...

 

Goldman's June 2015 1950 Target for the S&P 500 is within 9 points... 11 months early...

Whocouldanode?

If predicting yesterday's EURUSD (and market) reaction to the ECB announcement was easy enough, today's reaction to the latest "most important ever" nonfarm payrolls number (because remember: with the Fed getting out of market manipulation, if only for now, it is imperative that the economy show it can self-sustain growth on its own even without $85 billion in flow per month, which is why just like the ISM data earlier this week, the degree of "seasonal adjustments" are about to blow everyone away) should be just as obvious: since both bad news and good news remain "risk-on catalysts", and since courtesy of Draghi's latest green light to abuse any and every carry trade all risk assets will the bought the second there is a dip, the "BTFATH mentality" will be alive in well. It certainly was overnight, when the S&P500 rose to new all time highs despite another 0.5% drop in the Shcomp (now barely holding on above 2000), and a slight decline in the Nikkei (holding on just over 15,000).

 

But the biggest factor in predicting today's market reaction is that economic news absolutely, positively no longer matter. They haven't mattered for the past 5 years either, with "markets" moving higher only on hope and faith never on actual data, but it really hasn't been this disconnected ever: so much so that even the big banks are mocking how broken the market's discounting mechanism is.

Charts: Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:29 | 4830142 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Will Nat Gas be the black swan for these markets ? On a Tear. 

Looking fierce and strong. Am sure a lot of companies are gonna get broad sided by this surge.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:34 | 4830164 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Who could have known? certainly not goldman, yet that's why they make the big bucks.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:42 | 4830188 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Who could have known?

 

Anybody who is paying attention. The market is a policy tool and as a policy tool the fed has eliminated  all risk..... for now.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:59 | 4830233 lordylord
lordylord's picture

A policy tool indeed.  The closer we get to the end, the more effort and resources the State must use to preserve itself and maintain control.  That is the only goal of the State. 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:02 | 4830240 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

The universe advances parabolically. Humans think it advances linearly. The quickening is upon us.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:14 | 4830256 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Again...  FULL RETARD HAS BEEN REACHED AND WAY AHEAD OF TIME!

Just look at the VIX hitting 11.14 today!

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/VIX/charts?symb=VIX&countryco...

That's got to be an all time low too.

What's that rumbling sound I'm starting to hear now??

Sum Ting Wong..

Wi Tu Hi..

 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:16 | 4830294 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

S&P 500 @ 1950 = Food price inflation

They are the same thing.

Just wait till gasoline feels the heat.

WOW WILL IT BE FUN.

Get ready for the crash if yer not already.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:18 | 4830307 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Sum Ting Berry Wong!

Wi Tu Hi get stawl waning!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9NUTgz-a8c

Fuckashit!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:22 | 4830331 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Get your spx 2000 has ready boys and girls.  I'm thinkin by june 30th.  All those europeans will take money out of the banks due to the negative interest rates and plow it in to stocks. BTFATH

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:39 | 4830181 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GS will just raise their forecast.  

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:17 | 4830296 walküre
walküre's picture

2150 by summer 2015

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 15:38 | 4831024 Haager
Haager's picture

2250 by end of this year.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:59 | 4830234 aardwolf
aardwolf's picture

CALLING ALL ZEROHEDGE READERS:

DO YOU WANT TO END THE FED? DO YOU WANT TO TAKE BACK THE POWER TO CREATE MONEY FROM PRIVATE BANKERS??

 

SWITZERLAND WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM THIS YEAR TO DO JUST THIS!! THEY WILL START ISSUING SWISS FRANCS DEBT FREE LIKE YOUR OLD GREENBACK!!! THEY WILL REMOVE THE PRIVATE BANKS POWER TO CREATE ELECTRONIC DEPOSITS AS DEBT AND RESTORE IT TO THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK, WHICH WILL DO IT DEBT FREE!!

 

PLEASE DONATE HERE THIS SUMMER: http://www.vollgeld-initiative.ch/english/ THEY NEARLY HAVE ALL THE FUNDING FOR THE 100,000 SIGNATURES REQUIRED.

 

DO YOU REALLY WANT THE MADNESS TO END? PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS! I HAVE DONATED 10 CHF MYSELF BUT YOU GUYS ARE RICH. PLEASE HELP THE WORLD TODAY! IF THE SWISS SUCCEED WE'LL BE ONE STEP CLOSER TO ENDING THE FED. ACT NOW!!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:09 | 4830263 walküre
walküre's picture

Come winter the surge in NG will hurt people.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:46 | 4830450 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Nat Gas is full-on retard mode.  Injections have been at or above expectations, and when the number comes out, massive selling, then magically (like someone that has derivatives contracts out on it) comes out full swing punching every offer at around 11am.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:29 | 4830148 EllaDara
EllaDara's picture

06/06/2014 will be remembered in history as Tday. When SP topped at 1949.5 and never returned again. (T as in TOP) 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:36 | 4830171 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol..... good luck with that. 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:39 | 4830172 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Are the indices not a component of GDP ? So if equity indices go up, it supposedly helps GDP look better irrespective of actual organic GDP growth ? 

 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:47 | 4830453 Osmium
Osmium's picture

The 1949.5 "Top" is about to be take out.  Better raise your target.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:31 | 4830155 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oooo. Oooo. I got 20 bucks says their next target is 2000. Who wants to bet against me?

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:43 | 4830190 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We're going to party till it's 1999. That's a good number.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:58 | 4830232 EllaDara
EllaDara's picture

Are you talking about the DOW?

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:30 | 4830156 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

They'll just raise the target...next

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:33 | 4830159 maskone909
maskone909's picture

goldman should issue a jonah hillesque appology.

wouldnt that be great lmfao

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMz80FKusUA

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:33 | 4830161 pods
pods's picture

Well that IS better than expected.

Bollinger all around.

pods

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:34 | 4830166 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

I picked one helluva time to quit sniffin glue.....

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:35 | 4830168 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

yeah, it's all fun and games til somebody pokes an eye out.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:35 | 4830169 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

party like it's 1999

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:37 | 4830176 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Wheels coming off this bitch, get the hell out of the way.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:41 | 4830186 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

This is a solid indicator that we are in full recovery. It has nothing to do with the Fed printing trillions of dollars at zirp so the corporations can borrow free money and buy back their shares creating the illusion of profitability. I went to my bank and asked for 3 billion at zirp, they were all out. I'm going back next week to see if the Fed sent them some more pallets of $100's. I'm bringing my truck so I can borrow a couple pallets.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:44 | 4830197 EllaDara
EllaDara's picture

Be careful.

The pallet is worth more, than what is on it. 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:47 | 4830205 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Muppets are piling in like good little serfs.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:47 | 4830206 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Will the last man alive, please turn off the machines. Thanks. 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:52 | 4830219 autofixer
autofixer's picture

My trees grow to the sky.  Weeeeee! 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:58 | 4830230 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Time to start sucking in the shorts for the next squeeze in...3, 2, 1

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 12:52 | 4830475 smcapmachine
smcapmachine's picture

i find it hilarious how ZH constantly critisizes economists when ZH's forecasting has been nothing short of disasterous - probably the least acccurate predictions of any market news source EVER.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 14:18 | 4830711 asking4it2k
asking4it2k's picture

The FEDs ZIRP program is forcing savers to stop saving and to invest in the stock market for a higher rate of return.

Bank CDs are a pathetic 0.80 %. You can make 1-2 % a week or more on blue chip stocks. Seniors need a decent rate of return to survive, so money is still pouring into the stock market and it will keep going higher.

Amazing how the media never reports this.

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