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What Wall Street Expects Of Today's Jobs Number

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Ahead of today's latest "good news is great news, bad news is better" NFP release, here is what Wall Street banks expect will be reported in just over half an hour's time:

  • HSBC 175K
  • Goldman Sachs 175K
  • Citigroup 185K
  • JP Morgan 200K
  • Deutsche Bank 200K
  • Bank of America 225K
  • Barclays 225K
  • UBS 230K

More:

  • US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May) M/M Exp. 215K (Low 110K, High 350K), Prev. 288K, March 203K
  • US Unemployment Rate (May) M/M Exp. 6.4% (Low 6.1%, High 6.6%), Prev. 6.3%, March 6.7%
  • The nonfarm payrolls release is expected to show another reading above the 200K mark following the 288k rebound from winter conditions shown in April
  • Today’s number is not expected to alter the future course of Fed monetary policy

And some more thoughts from RanSquawk

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.4% having seen a significant drop last month from 6.7% to 6.3%. This was largely attributed to a decline in the labour force participation rate (62.8% from 63.2%), which the BLS said was due to less people than usual re-entering the labour force rather than an increase in those exiting. Many analysts note that May was a particularly strong month for the US services sector, highlighted by the preliminary US PMI reading last week coming in at a twenty-six month high (58.4, Prev. 55.0). Wednesday’s ISM non-manufacturing employment component also rose to 52.4 from 51.3 in April. However, data from the manufacturing sector in May has not been as strong; after being revised twice on Monday, the employment component of the ISM manufacturing report was shown to be 52.8, down from 54.7 in April.

The four-week average for initial jobless claims is at its lowest level since August 2007, however, claims during the survey week were slightly higher in May than in April, as noted by analysts at Credit Agricole. Wednesday’s ADP report, that has methodological similarities to NFP, was at its lowest since January at 179K against an expectation of 210K. As an interesting side note, yesterday’s Challenger job cuts release showed 16K job cuts in May attributed to lay-offs recently announced by Hewlett-Packard; depending on those workers’ destinations, they could have an effect on the NFP reading.

Market Reaction

An NFP headline figure towards the top end the expected range is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher in riskier assets such as equities, although revisions to the prior have the potential to limit upside, and it is worth bearing in mind that the DJIA and S&P 500 hit yet another fresh all-time high yesterday (1,942) so scope for more upside may be somewhat limited. A similar reaction may be seen in the USD, which rallied to a four-month high (USD-index 81.02) as the ECB announced its latest easing package, although it still has upside potential after retracing the move and breaking back below its 200DMA.
Treasuries having risen from the 11-month low of 2.40% printed at the end of May, and with the Fed now focusing increasingly on inflation, the sustainability of any knee-jerk reaction in rates markets is likely to depend on whether there is evidence of wage pressure, as noted by Credit Suisse. Last month the hourly earnings component of the NFP report showed a minor slowdown in wage growth, rising by 1.9% Y/Y (prev. 2.1%).

 

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Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:00 | 4829422 RealityCheque
RealityCheque's picture

What everyone else expects: bullshit.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:04 | 4829431 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

if the market finished red, it would be by 0.75 s&p pts, but if it finishes green, at least 10 pts

 

does anyone give  a fuck what the number is? we all know its rigged it means nothing to these rigged markets

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:10 | 4829444 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

apathy is what comes with any centrally controlled system

 

so yes, no one gives a fuck because the wall street communists will set the prices today on the direction of the white house communists

 

shrinking GDP - that's the best Jerry, the best!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:21 | 4829454 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

shrinkage

 

Nothing really matters,
Anyone can see,
Nothing really matters,
Nothing really matters to me.

[/bohemian rhapsody]

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 09:41 | 4829748 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

So out of 330 million people -- thats 0.0001% improvement. 

Fantastic.

 

Either way, the S&P gets juiced. 

CNBC

"Unemployment numbers were less than expected, does this mean an end to the taper? 4 of our next 5 panelists agree."

or

"Unemployment numbers were better than expected, clearly the taper is working and the economy is fixed.  4 of our next 5 panelists agree the S&P is were the smart money is heading."

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:13 | 4829445 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"but if it finishes green, at least 10 pts"

Which would put it right on Goldman's 1950 target (raised just last week from 1900).

I don't mind the manipulation so much as long as it's always in the right direction.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:05 | 4829432 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

if the market finished red, it would be by 0.75 s&p pts, but if it finishes green, at least 10 pts

 

does anyone give  a fuck what the number is? we all know its rigged it means nothing to these rigged markets

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:13 | 4829446 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I have moved on the tea leafs and chicken entrails for pronostication purposes. In combination with the phases of the moon and other stellar influences it works quite well.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:05 | 4829434 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Let's take the middle: 135K

AND BAMM BITCHEZ!!! RALLY TO THE MOON!!!!

500 POINTS EXTRA ON THE DOW!! IN YOUR FACE!!!

GOLD DOWN TO 3 DOLLARS PER OUNCE!! BAMM!!!

SILVER FOR FREE!! BAMM!!!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 09:51 | 4829784 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

You are officially an expert soon to be credited on CNBC! Congrats on your call...

I love money humor.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:07 | 4829440 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Ten years of sucky numbers."

Move along.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:10 | 4829443 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Everything just flatlined except bond yields made a little bounce... Wait for it..the leaks should come and second...

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:19 | 4829457 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

oh please, leaks started leaking last night to the Fed's special friends, 

the algos are preprogrammed by now....question is, will someone jump the gun......

Nanex will tell  us all in an hour or so.....

this has gotten to be laughable....

we're all pretending now that any of this is legit...jesus 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:21 | 4829461 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The show MUST go on!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:22 | 4829464 redbird
redbird's picture

BNP

BNPP: Our economists expect a 215k gain in non-farm payrolls, in line with consensus, while the jobless rate could reach a new cycle low of 6.2%. We remain long USDCHF.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/24604/what-expect-nfp-goldman-bofa-cs-bnpp-...

Looks like they they are conformists.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:24 | 4829472 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

What's your estimate of a number for May AFTER March and April get revised first?

Gee, do we get to add or subract those corrections from our estimate?

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:28 | 4829485 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Interesting...crude, rates and gold just took off a bit... Usually gold runs counter, but not always. Might mean the number is good but internals not so much....or it could be nothing...

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:33 | 4829502 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Called at neutral ! Houston we have lift off!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:35 | 4829503 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

NO MORE BANKSTERS ANYMORE

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:34 | 4829504 asking4it2k
asking4it2k's picture

You cant outsource good paying manufacturing jobs for 30+ years and think everything will be ok economically.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:35 | 4829505 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

what time is this cluster fuck?  I wanna see liesman shit his pants!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 08:49 | 4829561 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Did someone spike the punch at BOA, Barclays and UBS?

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 09:49 | 4829778 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Banksters are high on cocaine and self delusional power trips. As per usual. 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 09:52 | 4829788 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Man, we are some jaded folks. I guess "reality" does this to us?

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