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Why Janet Yellen Is Hoping California Chrome Wins The Triple Crown

Tyler Durden's picture


With The Fed tapering proceeding as scheduled and complacency having reached 11 on the Spinal Tap amplifier of over-confidence, Janet Yellen and her fellow PhDs have one last best hope... a second-half pick up to magically confirm escape velocity and 'prove' monetary policy is not simply the enrich-the-rich scheme we all know it is. For that reason, we suspect Yellen, Lew, Obama, and every bull out there will be screaming "move yr arse" to California Chrome in The Belmont on Saturday...During years when there is a Triple Crown winner, the U.S. economy has averaged 4.85% growth in real GDP.



As Bloomberg notes,

Winning horse racing’s Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, the Preakness, and Belmont States in the same year) is no easy feat. It’s only been accomplished 11 times in history. On June 7, California Chrome will have a chance to join this elite crowd. During years when there is a Triple Crown winner, the U.S. economy has averaged 4.85 percent growth in real GDP, an elevated 8.1 percent unemployment rate, and a 6 percent pace of inflation.

There were 19 occasions when a horse won the first two legs of the Crown, but failed to capture the victory in the Belmont – this excludes those races where the horse did not compete in the Belmont. During those periods, the economy fared worse with an average 3.6 percent pace of real output, though milder unemployment (5.2 percent) and a considerably less daunting inflation rate of 3.7 percent.

When it comes to rooting for a victor, essentially it comes down to choosing between stronger growth or a less encumbering set of the twin evils of unemployment and inflation.

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Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:21 | 4831332 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

So she can pretend she is Elizabeth Taylor in National Velvet?

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:48 | 4831389 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

all my money goes on kerry by a face....

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 18:18 | 4831435 max2205
max2205's picture

Fuck that. They will just report 5.6% because it sounds right

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 18:20 | 4831439 max2205
max2205's picture

If that we're the case they'd have snipers on the field to shoot all the other horses.

That's the way America works....right

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 18:57 | 4831492 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

There's a difference between real correlation - where there's an actual relationship between factors - and sheer coincidence

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 19:36 | 4831571 Umh
Umh's picture

There is a correlation between the economy and those dates. Almost all of them occurred when the U.S. was on some sort of gold standard.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:22 | 4831341 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

and coming round the club house turn.......

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:24 | 4831343 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Chrome dome haircut winner, what's the Federal Reserve liquidity odds?

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:25 | 4831348 10mm
10mm's picture

Where's a space ship when you need one. 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:33 | 4831364 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Dr Evil is escaping on his Big Boy!  I say again...Dr Evil is escaping on his Big Boy, over."

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:34 | 4831365 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture


Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:32 | 4831361 Platinum
Platinum's picture

Triple Crown Cargo Cult.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:37 | 4831370 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I still can't believe Real Quiet got beat !!!

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 21:24 | 4831735 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

I still can't believe I actually opened an article like this tied to some race where horses go fast around a track with a bunch of short guys sticking thier asses in the air.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 17:41 | 4831378 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

i am betting on "the field"... mile and a half is a whole new ballgame...

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 18:29 | 4831455 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Chrome's sire is a colt from Seattle Slew, Secretariat and A.P Indy stock and might handle the distance. But at 1-5 I try to beat him....  he got Cali in his name. 

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 18:04 | 4831413 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yeah, well, 1978 was when we started off-shoring production and career employment.

Janet Yellen needs the Titanic Captain's hat for this one.

Unless she sends us all our check for $3 Million tax free.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 19:02 | 4831497 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

1978 was a pretty crappy year - major inflation and getting a job was a real bitch.....  but at least they were still reporting real statistics then instead of making things up 

Inflation was double digits but at least they paid you 3/4's of the inflation rate in interest... now inflation's really at 9% and you get 0.025% interest on your money (if you have any)

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 18:08 | 4831421 1stepcloser
Fri, 06/06/2014 - 19:13 | 4831516 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Zero is hoping for a nuclear device in NYC so he can blame that for the recession.

Fri, 06/06/2014 - 19:31 | 4831556 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

You want 5%+ growth,  dig Reagan up, put him and his crew back in charge and send that ultrafaggot who lifts weights like a pussyboy back to the waiting arms of Calypso Louis Walcott and Reggie Loves.

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