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Brazil Is Over 3 Times More Likely To Win The World Cup Than Anyone Else
Brazil wins the world cup... according to Bloomberg, 171 economists, and Goldman Sachs. They beat Spain, Germany, or Argentina in the final respectively but as one survey participant noted, "It’s kind of hard to bet against Brazil -- they have home advantage, the climate, crowd and recent record." Goldman's 'model' implies a 48.5% chance that Brazil wins it all (with Argentina 2nd most likely to win at 14.1%). While all eyes will be on Ronaldo, Goldman's Dream Team is dominated by 3 Brazilians (including Neymar of course) but based on the 6-factor Poisson distribution-based regression model, Goldman predicts the scores of every game (and Bloomberg's interactive graphics allow to create your own bracket). If only the Brazilian people were so certain about their futures...
As Bloomberg reports,
Brazil will beat Germany to win soccer’s World Cup and also will score the most goals, according to a survey of economists across 52 countries.
The tournament’s host nation eclipsed Germany and Argentina as the top choice among 171 economists from 139 companies in a Bloomberg News poll published today.
“It’s kind of hard to bet against Brazil -- they have home advantage, the climate, crowd and recent record,” said Peter Dixon, a poll participant and global equities economist at Commerzbank AG in London. “It’s pretty obvious if you look at Brazil’s soccer rankings who should win.”
The predictions for the World Cup winner centered almost exclusively on Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Spain. Of the 171 responses, only six economists diverged from that trend, with three choosing Portugal, two backing Italy and one Uruguay.
Here is Bloomberg's prediction bracket (click image for link to interactive version)..
And Goldman's predicted group results...
And knockout round...
With Brazil by far the favorites...
Which is no surprise given 3 of them make the Dream Team this year...
Full Goldman Sachs World Cup report below:
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"ABB"
Likely because most of the other teams will be slugged, mugged or drugged out about town.
That sport can suck on my 2 hairy fútbols!
The collateral effects are actually more interesting than the game. Brazilians are on average pissed off and fed up with the govt spending all their money on corruption, including the billions spent on hosting the World Cup. First time ever that large numbers are actively disinterested in the matches. Meanwhile, subway workers and others are striking, which is significant in that Sao Paulo's roads are so overloaded already that the subway is the primary way to get to the games.
Most ironic is that the President, Dilma, is heavily criticizing the strikers, somehow forgeting that she started out as a leftist of similar sentiments. The whole thing in Brazil right now is FUBAR to an extent you can not believe unless you see it first hand. The real story here is not who wins. It is whether Brazil can pull this off without a major incident, and if not, what kind and how bad is the collateral damage.
Brazil Is Over 3 Times More Likely To Win The World Cup Than Anyone ElseI don't care.
Its actually easy u don't need the math and crap to figure this out, i believe the players get taken out if they don't win so they are playing for their lives literally. Those fans just beheaded a ref in the last year and put his azz at centerfield on a stick. easy pick really.
Manaus stadium is in the middle of the fuckin Amazon jungle...you can only get there by piggie back or canoe...
so Goldman is obviously betting against Brazil then?
52% chance they don't win.
"Poisson distribution-based model"? Sounds "Fishy" to me. Perhaps being Goldman, they actually meant "Poison" based model?
Poisson sounds fishy? He was a groggy Froggy, but clever as they come.
When can I buy some Brazilian player futures?
Because the fans know where the referees sleep at night.
Me? I'm cheering on the checkered shirts on Thursday.
Chess world cup?
For sure...that's a given!
They're probably the only team with beds to sleep in and a roof over their heads during the tournament based on what I've been reading, so yeah, I'd say they have an advantage.
I thought some cruise ships were operating where they would run from port to port between games. Passengers would only have to venture onto dry land to attend the games and then stay on board for the fun in relative comfort and safety.
Ribery on the 2014 Dream Team?
12 draws out of 16 opening games?
How do these guys rule the world with picks like these?
As is the case with all other economist "projections", the numbers above are not seasonally adjusted and thus due for revision...
Expect another "projections" leaflet after the World Cup's ended.
A Brazil win will mean another term for Dilma Rousseff and her ghastly brand of socialism.
Whatever works.
She's been such a snarky bitch about the NSA, too.
Next thing you know pictures will be out too...
Brazil's socialism doesn't work, although millions haven't realised it yet.
And still not a single word on NAFTA.
'Americans' are blobbing up so better to keep it quiet.
What, are you BUMMED that China is not playing in Brazil this year?
Awaiting humor from TheFourthStooge-ing..., hey just pitching in from time-to-time because akak is not around.
EDITED name for correctness... :)
.
Ah, indeed, the National Anticoncurrence Football Tournament Association, the 'american' organization pulling the strings of the World Cup in order to 'americanize' the competition.
In an 'american' system, competition is about eliminating concurrence aka punctual alternatives. 'American' sports competitions produce winners and losers. A tie is not acceptable. This is why in 'america', football (the non-'american' type) does not have charm. It can end in a tie, which deprives the 'american' middle class aka the king class of a winner and a loser. No good.
This whole World Cup thingie is a way to 'americanize' football by competing the 'american' way, which is to make all teams losers save for one. Concurrence elimination produces a winner, which can be monetized the good old 'american' way.
Oops, sorry.
Brazilians won't win shit.
>>PPFFT!<<
Netherlands, easy.
However, this will be the first World Cup in a very long time that I won't be watching. Just don't care, anymore.
If Brazil doesn't win all hell will break loose.
If Brazil doesn't win in the stadium, they'll win in the parking lot
USA '94, Stanford Stadium, Brazil beat Russia 2-0 and afterwards the Brazilian fans took over the parking lot of the shopping mall all day and into the night. That was some party
The current Brazil team plays well together and there are high expectations. Losing is not an option.
I predict that there will be goals from a lot of Brazilian players. They are lining up to score; Fred, Hulk, Neymar, Dani Alves, Willian, Marcelo, Oscar, Ramires, Maicon again ....
with odds as good as these, Brazil probably won't make it to the final
I hope Brazil Don`t even make it to the quarter finals.
STOP THE CHARADE.
Let the greedy Bastards at the top taste the peasants revolt.
Spain has 13 of the top 100 players in the world. Brazil has 4.
The Belgians have a very good squad as well.
We will either go home on the first day ( the beer got stuck at the customs), or we will get to semi final.
They are backed by Team FED!
Opening Game tied 0-0 with 3 minutes left Brazil gets a bad call Red Card and penalty Kick. Croatia scores.
The entire of nation of Brazil riots in disgust.
Games are closed.
Standings:
CRO = 3 pts.
everyone else = 0 points
CRO wins 2014 World Cup by default, literally, of the whole economy of Brazil most likely.
Professional Sports "Bread & Circus" (Alan Watt)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3uhTzs9be8 (4:55)
"Brazil wins the world cup... according to Bloomberg, 171 economists, and Goldman Sachs."
Well, nothing like a good jinx.
I guess we know which team GS isn't betting on.
Of course, their clients will go all in on the home team.
Surely I'm not the only one who is rooting for the Russian Federation.
I am. Just to see more whining and crying from planet earths butthole ('merica)
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - The Lesser of Two Weevils
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpHCfndib0Q (1:07)
Ribery is hurt and will miss the World Cup.
I don't think Brazil will do it, but who will? Anyone's guess.
A joke that Mexico is even in the World Cup.
Are these the same economists that regularly get forecasts wrong on economic matters? And now they're experts on soccer?
Bread and circuses!
I passed a cheap circus today in Brazil that was called 'Moscow'.
Speaking of circuses and Russia, Putin will be in Brazil for the BRICS conference on 14-15th July.
Espana v Germany final.
Belgium dark horse.
sport
sport
sport
is freedom.
come on muppets sing cheer and chant
donte forget to grunt
yerrrrrrrrrherrrrrrrrrrrerrrrrr
make sum noise you dolts
fuckin distract
a corner
a
goal yerrrrrrrrhhhhh
energy and urine harvesting in the satanic stadium.
did you know your piss is commodity
yummy not but worth notes.
noise in the pub home and stadium nice distraction for more rabbi papal rape.
hooligans on the loose lookin' to lay on a beatin'.
It was these same probability models and experts that didn't figure on Greece winning the European cup back in 2004 and if I remember correctly they didn't kick a single goal. They were all headed in. What a laugh.
If the people making the predictions are the same as those predicting the gold price then we are in for surprises.
+1 A SERIOUS WAR IS GOING TO BREAK OUT DURING THE WORLD CUP
-1 IT WILL NOT.
3 Brazilian to 1
Hey where is the Paddy Power line?
With Suarez playing for Uruguay, I wouldn't bet against a repeat of 1954.
You mean 1950, Brazil vs Uruguay 1950 in the Maracanã stadium
Goldman Sachs is not very good at making World Cup odds... they should stick to what they do know.
robbing the world?
not big deal,
public resources spent in private events.
better education should be priority number one.
very rude people in this poor and corrupted nation.
I want to see Russia play USA. People would tune in to that.
If USA wins, Putin sends a case of Russian vodka. If Russia wins, Obama sends a case of Budweiser*.
* Bought by Belgium. The same place that buys USTs, and birthplace of Dr. Evil. Clearly Belgium's sipped and slipped since the days when it gave birth to Ludwig Van (Beethoven).
The Brazilian people is set for 100% to foot the bill (not the ball) for the costs of the world cup and is set for 100% to lose long term. For example, in Manaus a 200 million dollar stadium was built in a town that does not even have a professional football team. 4 or 5 world cup matches will be played there and then the stadium will stand to rot. John Oliver has some thought about it and about the corruption of FIFA (if you can spare 13 minutes): http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/6602524/6c250bce/john_oliver_over_het_wk...
I was asked by some co-workers who I thought would win the World Cup this year. I answered Brasil, no bones about it. They spent $14 billion to build the venues and to host this tournament. I figure $5 billion of the amount spent was payoff monies to referees and teams to throw the games in Brasils favour.
I'M CALLING IT HERE RIGHT NOW. BRASIL AND PORTUGAL IN THE FINAL. WINNER BRASIL. FINAL SCORE BRASIL 2 PORTUGAL 1.
What a great story that would be seeing as Portugal colonized Brasil.
Spain will win this world cup as well , they will not be beaten by Argentina in semis thats for sure . They will make it to the final no doubt about it . This team trashed Italy , only 2 years ago in the Eurocup final , 4 - 0 . So , we shall see .
A lot depends on harmed players and climatic familiarization.
Team Germany this time is extremely suffering from harmed players e. g. the absence of Marco Reus - probably the best German player.
Team Brasil is used to play under tropical conditions. For sure an big advantage even though I don't believe that they will win the title.