Brazil Is Over 3 Times More Likely To Win The World Cup Than Anyone Else

Tyler Durden's picture


Brazil wins the world cup... according to Bloomberg, 171 economists, and Goldman Sachs. They beat Spain, Germany, or Argentina in the final respectively but as one survey participant noted, "It’s kind of hard to bet against Brazil -- they have home advantage, the climate, crowd and recent record." Goldman's 'model' implies a 48.5% chance that Brazil wins it all (with Argentina 2nd most likely to win at 14.1%). While all eyes will be on Ronaldo, Goldman's Dream Team is dominated by 3 Brazilians (including Neymar of course) but based on the 6-factor Poisson distribution-based regression model, Goldman predicts the scores of every game (and Bloomberg's interactive graphics allow to create your own bracket). If only the Brazilian people were so certain about their futures...

As Bloomberg reports,

Brazil will beat Germany to win soccer’s World Cup and also will score the most goals, according to a survey of economists across 52 countries.


The tournament’s host nation eclipsed Germany and Argentina as the top choice among 171 economists from 139 companies in a Bloomberg News poll published today.


“It’s kind of hard to bet against Brazil -- they have home advantage, the climate, crowd and recent record,” said Peter Dixon, a poll participant and global equities economist at Commerzbank AG in London. “It’s pretty obvious if you look at Brazil’s soccer rankings who should win.”


The predictions for the World Cup winner centered almost exclusively on Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Spain. Of the 171 responses, only six economists diverged from that trend, with three choosing Portugal, two backing Italy and one Uruguay.

Here is Bloomberg's prediction bracket (click image for link to interactive version)..

And Goldman's predicted group results...

And knockout round...

With Brazil by far the favorites...

Which is no surprise given 3 of them make the Dream Team this year...



Full Goldman Sachs World Cup report below:


World Cup Economics Report

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Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:28 | 4842027 DoChenRollingBearing
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Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:36 | 4842044 Manthong
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Likely because most of the other teams will be slugged, mugged or drugged out about town.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:27 | 4842186 Bangin7GramRocks
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That sport can suck on my 2 hairy fútbols!

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:45 | 4842255 Tao 4 the Show
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The collateral effects are actually more interesting than the game. Brazilians are on average pissed off and fed up with the govt spending all their money on corruption, including the billions spent on hosting the World Cup. First time ever that large numbers are actively disinterested in the matches. Meanwhile, subway workers and others are striking, which is significant in that Sao Paulo's roads are so overloaded already that the subway is the primary way to get to the games.

Most ironic is that the President, Dilma, is heavily criticizing the strikers, somehow forgeting that she started out as a leftist of similar sentiments. The whole thing in Brazil right now is FUBAR to an extent you can not believe unless you see it first hand. The real story here is not who wins. It is whether Brazil can pull this off without a major incident, and if not, what kind and how bad is the collateral damage.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 19:03 | 4842293 macholatte
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Brazil Is Over 3 Times More Likely To Win The World Cup Than Anyone Else


I don't care.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 19:30 | 4842382 I MISS KUDLOW
I MISS KUDLOW's picture

Its actually easy u don't need the math and crap to figure this out, i believe the players get taken out if they don't win so they are playing for their lives literally. Those fans just beheaded a ref in the last year and put his azz at centerfield on a stick. easy pick really.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 22:57 | 4843229 BLOTTO
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Manaus stadium is in the middle of the fuckin Amazon can only get there by piggie back or canoe...


Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:27 | 4842188 JonNadler
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so Goldman is obviously betting against Brazil then?

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 19:12 | 4842318 economics9698
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52% chance they don't win.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:31 | 4842199 philipat
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"Poisson distribution-based model"? Sounds "Fishy" to me. Perhaps being Goldman, they actually meant "Poison" based model?

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 22:59 | 4843236 Kirk2NCC1701
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Poisson sounds fishy?  He was a groggy Froggy, but clever as they come.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:29 | 4842028 NOTaREALmerican
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When can I buy some Brazilian player futures?

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:29 | 4842029 TeamDepends
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Because the fans know where the referees sleep at night.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:31 | 4842032 SteveGennisonBa...
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Me?  I'm cheering on the checkered shirts on Thursday.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:18 | 4842154 Wolferl
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Chess world cup?

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:32 | 4842211 Motorhead
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For sure...that's a given!

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:32 | 4842035 Agent P
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They're probably the only team with beds to sleep in and a roof over their heads during the tournament based on what I've been reading, so yeah, I'd say they have an advantage. 

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:25 | 4842174 ImnotPOTUS
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I thought some cruise ships were operating where they would run from port to port between games. Passengers would only have to venture onto dry land to attend the games and then stay on board for the fun in relative comfort and safety.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:37 | 4842038 riversnout
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Ribery on the 2014 Dream Team? 


12 draws out of 16 opening games?


How do these guys rule the world with picks like these?

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:43 | 4842057 ThirdWorldDude
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As is the case with all other economist "projections", the numbers above are not seasonally adjusted and thus due for revision...

Expect another "projections" leaflet after the World Cup's ended.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:36 | 4842042 smacker
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A Brazil win will mean another term for Dilma Rousseff and her ghastly brand of socialism.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:45 | 4842068 NOTaREALmerican
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Whatever works.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:51 | 4842083 Spastica Rex
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She's been such a snarky bitch about the NSA, too.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:55 | 4842097 DoChenRollingBearing
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Next thing you know pictures will be out too...

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:07 | 4842114 smacker
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Brazil's socialism doesn't work, although millions haven't realised it yet.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:44 | 4842061 AnAnonymous
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And still not a single word on NAFTA.

'Americans' are blobbing up so better to keep it quiet.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:51 | 4842091 DoChenRollingBearing
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What, are you BUMMED that China is not playing in Brazil this year?

Awaiting humor from TheFourthStooge-ing..., hey just pitching in from time-to-time because akak is not around.

EDITED name for correctness...  :)

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:48 | 4842260 TheFourthStooge-ing
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And still not a single word on NAFTA.

Ah, indeed, the National Anticoncurrence Football Tournament Association, the 'american' organization pulling the strings of the World Cup in order to 'americanize' the competition.

In an 'american' system, competition is about eliminating concurrence aka punctual alternatives. 'American' sports competitions produce winners and losers. A tie is not acceptable. This is why in 'america', football (the non-'american' type) does not have charm. It can end in a tie, which deprives the 'american' middle class aka the king class of a winner and a loser. No good.

This whole World Cup thingie is a way to 'americanize' football by competing the 'american' way, which is to make all teams losers save for one. Concurrence elimination produces a winner, which can be monetized the good old 'american' way.

'Americans' are blobbing up so better to keep it quiet.

Oops, sorry.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:46 | 4842069 kchrisc
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Brazilians won't win shit.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:51 | 4842075 Spastica Rex
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Netherlands, easy.

However, this will be the first World Cup in a very long time that I won't be watching. Just don't care, anymore.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:50 | 4842076 Doom and Dust
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If Brazil doesn't win all hell will break loose.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:52 | 4842084 Gohn Galt
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If Brazil doesn't win in the stadium, they'll win in the parking lot

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:58 | 4842104 Cacete de Ouro
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USA '94, Stanford Stadium, Brazil beat Russia 2-0 and afterwards the Brazilian fans took over the parking lot of the shopping mall all day and into the night. That was some party

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 17:53 | 4842089 Cacete de Ouro
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The current Brazil team plays well together and there are high expectations. Losing is not an option.

I predict that there will be goals from a lot of Brazilian players. They are lining up to score; Fred, Hulk, Neymar, Dani Alves, Willian, Marcelo, Oscar, Ramires, Maicon again ....

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:05 | 4842111 orangegeek
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with odds as good as these, Brazil probably won't make it to the final

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:10 | 4842121 goldhedge
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I hope Brazil Don`t even make it to the quarter finals.


Let the greedy Bastards at the top taste the peasants revolt.


Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:14 | 4842137 syntaxterror
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Spain has 13 of the top 100 players in the world. Brazil has 4.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:31 | 4842205 Motorhead
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The Belgians have a very good squad as well. 

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:37 | 4842226 Ludwig Von
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We will either go home on the first day ( the beer got stuck at the customs), or we will get to semi final. 

Wed, 06/11/2014 - 07:06 | 4843773 zerocash
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They are backed by Team FED!

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:35 | 4842159 ImnotPOTUS
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Opening Game tied 0-0 with 3 minutes left Brazil gets a bad call Red Card and penalty Kick. Croatia scores.

The entire of nation of Brazil riots in disgust.

Games are closed.


CRO = 3 pts.

everyone else = 0 points

CRO wins 2014 World Cup by default, literally, of the whole economy of Brazil most likely.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:25 | 4842177 Goldilocks
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Professional Sports "Bread & Circus" (Alan Watt) (4:55)

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:25 | 4842178 TheFourthStooge-ing
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"Brazil wins the world cup... according to Bloomberg, 171 economists, and Goldman Sachs."

Well, nothing like a good jinx.

I guess we know which team GS isn't betting on.

Of course, their clients will go all in on the home team.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:29 | 4842196 Dull Care
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Surely I'm not the only one who is rooting for the Russian Federation.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:43 | 4842251 TungstenBars
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I am. Just to see more whining and crying from planet earths butthole ('merica)

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:58 | 4842281 Goldilocks
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Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - The Lesser of Two Weevils (1:07)

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:31 | 4842200 Motorhead
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Ribery is hurt and will miss the World Cup.

I don't think Brazil will do it, but who will?  Anyone's guess.

A joke that Mexico is even in the World Cup.

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:34 | 4842215 Bazza McKenzie
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Are these the same economists that regularly get forecasts wrong on economic matters?  And now they're experts on soccer?

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 18:35 | 4842219 valley chick
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Bread and circuses!

Tue, 06/10/2014 - 19:12 | 4842319 Cacete de Ouro
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I passed a cheap circus today in Brazil that was called 'Moscow'.

Speaking of circuses and Russia, Putin will be in Brazil for the BRICS conference on 14-15th July.

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