Destroying The "But Everyone's So Negative, Stocks Can't Drop" Meme In One Chart
Day in, day out, we hear it... It's "the most unloved rally"; Stocks are in "the Rodney Dangerfield rally"; there's still all the "money on the sidelines." Well, it seems, judging by Investors Intelligence surveys of those "not bullish" (bearish or expecting a correction), that investors have never (ever) been more lovingly, respectfully, all-in with this rally... (but that's just the facts speaking - not the asset-gathering, always stay long, commission-snatching soundbites).
Investors have never been less bearish or expectant of a correction.
Every time someone says, “There is a lot of cash on the sidelines,” a tiny part of my soul dies. There are no sidelines. Those saying this seem to envision a seller of stocks moving her money to cash and awaiting a chance to return. But they always ignore that this seller sold to somebody, who presumably moved a precisely equal amount of cash off the sidelines.
If you want to save those who say this, I can think of two ways.
First, they really just mean that sentiment is negative but people are waiting to buy. If sentiment turns, it won’t move any cash off the sidelines because, again, that just can’t happen, but it can mean prices will rise because more people will be trying to get off the nonexistent sidelines than on.
Second, over the long term, there really are sidelines in the sense that new shares can be created or destroyed (net issuance), and that may well be a function of investor sentiment.
But even though I’ve thrown people who use this phrase a lifeline, I believe that they really do think there are sidelines.
There aren’t. Like any equilibrium concept (a powerful way of thinking that is amazingly underused), there can be a sideline for any subset of investors, but someone else has to be doing the opposite.
Add us all up and there are no sidelines.
- advertisements -