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Oil Prices Will Hike After Mosul Falls
Oil prices are set to hike in the next few days with the growing fear that fighting in the northern city of Mosul will spread southwards in Iraq. The country is clearly in line for a greater split between the north and the south, but this time there will be little or no intervention from outside of the country, leading to the belief that oil prices in the world will be affected. The US has stated today that it will support a strong and coordinated response to aggression, however.
After 4 days of intense fighting Iraq’s northern city of Mosul has fallen to the Islamic State and the Levant (ISIS), a break-away group of Al-Qaeda. A state of emergency has been requested by the Prime Minister of Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki at the Iraqi Parliament, with almost half a million people fleeing the city. All of this means that there are worries that there will be another rise in oil prices on the books, in particular if fighting starts spreading towards the south of the country. Sunni militants have already been reported to have been in the oil-refinery town of Baiji, which is some 200 kilometers from Baghdad. Baiji is the largest oil refinery in the country. 1.5 thousand troops have deserted their posts. Of course they have added to the strife by leaving behind weapons and equipment that will be snapped up by the splinter group.
• US crude saw an increase today of 33 cents trading now at $104.68 as London opened. Brent futures increased by 44 cents and reached $109.96 this morning.
• The high this year so far was touched in March reaching $105.22 for the intraday high in the previous session.
• US gasoline stocks fell last week and that means that there will be healthy demand coupled with a fall in supply due to the conflict in Iraq.
• Gasoline stocks in the US fell by over 440, 000 barrels, while expectations were aiming for a gain of 843, 000 barrels according to data from the American Petroleum Institute.
• US crude production reached the highest level in 26 years last month, with an average of 8.4 million barrels per day.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met today and has decided to leave production at 30 million barrels per day, even with the price of oil at over $100. Iraq is the second largest oil producer in OPEC. 17% of oil reserves are said to be located in the north of the country. The majority, however are located in the south. But, fighting in the region of Mosul has meant that the main oil pipeline running to Turkey has had all repair work stopped on it since the start of March this year. What it does mean is that investors will be wary of plowing money into a country where the conflict has still not been resolved and where Al-Qaeda or splinter groups may be in a position to take over the refineries.
Iraq’s oil minister Abdul Kareem Luaiba has been trying to reassure the world that the south is safe and that there will be no knock-on effect on the price of oil or the supply. He stated: “The midlands and the south are very, very safe. There is no accident in this area, it's only in the north and the government today has started to take very strong actions”. Iraq produces 3.6 million barrels of oil per day today and has plans to increase that by an extra 4 million by the end of 2014. But, Mosul and the growing tensions in the country will have an effect on the markets for certain. Iraq is selling more barrels of oil than ever before and has record levels of exports to the rest of the world.
Some believe that oil prices may now increase to over $120 per barrel. It is hoped that the shortfall in oil production will be picked up by those that are able to do so such as the United Arab Emirates.
Originally posted: Oil Prices Will Hike After Mosul Falls
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i guess we can switch to nuclear .... the energy source preferred by sociopaths
http://blog.petflow.com/this-video-is-shocking-the-entire-world/#7AV8Yol...
Keystone coming online????......soon.
Coup d'etat?
(zzzzzzzz----Huh)? General? Wha-what are doing here in the Oval Orifice? Wha- why do you have those handcuffs?
Valerie! Help!
If the military ever actually took over - I wonder if the population would be so completely dumbstruck and unable to comprehend or process what had just happend that there would be essentially no response.
I'm not sure a military coup would even be a bad thing. We all know the government doesn't even bother to wipe its ass with the Constitution anymore; the military is still an untested capacity in that respect. Maybe a year or two of military rule wouldn't be so bad if it was used to actually impose law and order on the bankers et al. within the boundaries defined by our national charter.
Military coups are the the product of bankers. Why would bankers stage a military coup to reign themselves in? That shit doesn't pay for itself you know.
Cartels are taking over the border. America is under Invasion.
US Servicemen are being placed in Harm's Way in violation of the Rule of Law.
What is the answer??
Short CL @104.27 from 05/09; holding the position. the author knows nothing. it's drivel.
Tehnically that's a hard trade to justify.
"Short CL @104.27 from 05/09; holding the position. the author knows nothing. it's drivel."
One look at COT, commercial producers at the lowest in six years, you have a point.
Either producers don't know what they're doing, or someone's trying to pump.
SAT800 - Agree about mullah farting as not causation of oil prices. Waiting until September to short. Good luck over the summer.
Let's circle back in December and trade notes. You have made a couple of accurate calls here after all, specifically on stocks in 2012. Here is my email jrines@ragingdebate.com
the real tipoff on the CL market is that the price never goes above 105$. And, this is close enough. I don;'t waste a lot of time analysizing this stuff; it's not nuclear physics. The guy who told me about the Majors slamming the prices was a former head of a major commodities trading house that got wiped by Corzine; and he used to see the orders come in on his computer network. September might as well be 2075, as far as I'm concerned.
This is short term trade; it's a July '14 contract. The oil market has a strong 2 week cycle; and it was revealed to me by a little birdie that the majors don't like oil prices signicifcantly above $100. it's bad for business. That's Exxon-Mobile, et al. And what they want; they get. this is a heavily manipulated market. which is fine, as long as you go along with the manipulators. And haveing said that; I may be wrong. Which is why God invented stop losses. cheers.
I think I'll join you. Another piece of logic based on a manipulated market is the politicians will want a drop in gas prices also for the elections. We all can be wrong at times but I don't think you are.
Iraq’s oil minister Abdul Kareem Luaiba does a killer Badhdad Bob impression.
Yeah... Sort of been wondering how those ISIS fellas are going to get themselves "checked out" on flying those rather expensive "blackhawks" that they allegedly stole!...
Yep. I could see one of those Al Qaeda boyz purchasing the services of an ex-Army helicopter pilot just to keep the price of oil high given both the strategic value and location of that oil in ol' Mosul!...
FYI.
Exxon/Mobil and Al Qaeda are interchangeable since Secretary Clinton spilled the beans about her concern that U.S. Forces were working alongside them in 2011...
Hell, they'll probably trade them 5:1 for Gitmo prisoners. Frankly I'd give them 10:1, 5 prisoners and 5 members of Congress and we'll buy the gas for the return flight...we'll throw in Odumbo for free if they return all of them.
Valerie: "Boys! Boys! Stop fondling the helicopter. I need you to study these manuals. Imam Bath House has gone to great lengths to get copies of these. Boys! don't fool with that rocke--------"
On the other hand?... Which one of the "Three Stooges" is President Remus?
http://www.intellihub.com/iraq-verge-full-scale-war/
It has to be Shem.
"Iraq produces 3.6 million barrels of oil per day today and has plans to increase that by an extra 4 million by the end of 2014"
I wonder how much capital Exxon and BP managed to secure on the basis of that bullshit.
Reason to go to war again # (fill in blank)
Strategist: "The American Electorate are not open to any more wars right now"
Oligarchs: "When gas goes to $6.00 a gallon they will soften up on that stance. Besides, we just spent a ton on a false flag operation to get this new one kicked off. Shut up or your fired"
TBTF's to Oligarchs: "You need $6 gas to encourage a war for your defense co? not a problem! ...Toss a few million campaign bucks at our guys, we gotchya covered in WTI futures."
Just what we need to help the economy achieve escape velocity....more inflation.
The Federal Reserve has added nearly a trillion dollars to its balance sheet in the past 12 months, so we can afford it! /sarc
If any group really wanted to hurt the US economically at this point - they'd be wise to focus on disrupting global oil supplies rather than worrying about terror attacks on US soil.
I get the feeling a mall rampage would have far less effect on consumption (and the markets) than a $1.00 hike in the retail price of fuel.
"If any group really wanted to hurt the US economically ..."
That's exactly what the TBTF's did in 2008, cornered oil futures to $145, pinching disposable income to trigger sub-prime defaults & collect on their short MBS derivatives.
The CFMA protects futures & derivatives positions as "proprietary" - even the Pentagon wasn't allowed access to CFTC records when they investigated 2008 oil futures prices as a potential act of financial terrorism.
TBTF's employ this tactic regularly on a smaller scale, by controlling input costs, they control earnings, they then know whether a sector will have higher or lower earnings before the fact.
Hence TBTF prop desks gain almost 100% of trades.
Yeah, I am a little worried that oil & gasoline prices could crash the economy. I have noted in the past that prices rose in 2005 and may have kept us in a recession. But I can't really prove the loss to the Airlines Industry or Trucking Industry or Tourism Industry. I have met people that closed their tourism business after 2005 and moved to South America. But all the security after 9-11 probably strained the airlines industry back in 2002.
Charts?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DCOILWTICO/ (December 2001 Price was $18 Dollars a Barrel) Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DCOILBRENTEU (January 2002 Price was $18 per Barrel) Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe
Blame GWB, OPEC, War, Promotion of Terrorism, radical Islam?
Feels like a Black Swan all of the sudden.
If you really want to bake your noodle, take a look at RBOB prices since 1980 ranging from $1 to $2, note the radical surge as of 2000 to this new $3 to $4 range right at the inception of the CFMA.
Again, the CFMA allows large trading entities to buy/sell and hold any quantity of a futures market share in complete secrecy.
Want to cut taxes?...stop allowing TBTF prop desks to impose a 100% gas tax.
I don't suggest killing the CFMA, but it's time to finally impose the Dodd-Frank position limits that were supposed to be in place two years ago.
Ah last time I checked ZH was a Wall Street blog, yea we know.