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Iraq Update: Kurds Take Kirkuk, Al Qaeda Surges Toward Baghdad
Now that 25 year old math PhD HFT programmers have finally figured out what this thing called Iraq is, and why headlines around it should factor into algo trading signals - especially those of crude oil - here, for their benefit is a summary of the latest events in Iraq, and also for everyone else confused why crude is back to levels not seen since last summer.
In broader terms (via RanSquawk):
- The situation in Northern Iraq continues to deteriorate as the extremist ISIS/ISIL group took control of Mosul and then moved into Tirkit, which was later recaptured, in the north of Iraq which is near the Ceyhan-Kirkuk pipeline, which carries 1.6mln bbls per day. ISIS/ISIL forces then seized the Baiji refinery, the main refinery in Iraq, from Iraqi forces. (BBG/RTRS)
- Iraqi forces and militants have now clashed in Ramadi, 100km from Baghdad, as ISIL extremist forces push towards the Iraqi capital. (BBG)
- However Iraqi Oil Minister Luaibi said US planes may bomb North Iraq and denied ISIL took Baiji refinery in the North. The oil Minister also said Iraq average crude exports 2.6mln bbl/d, Iraq crude production 3.166mln bbl/d, Kirkuk production 167,000 bbl/d and Iraq has stored oil products and won't increase imports. (BBG/RTRS)
- Washington has vowed to boost aid to Iraq and is mulling done strikes amid fears that Iraqi forces are crumbling in the face of militant attacks. (RTRS)
And in detail:
As the WSJ reports, after hard core Al Qaeda spin off ISIS (no relation to Sterling Archer) took over Saddam's home town of Tikrit yesterday, Iraq edged closer to all-out sectarian conflict on Thursday as Kurdish forces took control of a provincial capital in the oil-rich north and Sunni militants vowed to march on two cities revered by Shiite Muslims. Kurdish militia known as peshmerga said they had taken up positions in key government installations in Kirkuk, as forces of the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki abandoned their posts and fled in fear of advancing Sunni militants, an official in the office of the provincial governor said.
Reuters adds that "The whole of Kirkuk has fallen into the hands of peshmerga," citing Jabbar Yawar. "No Iraqi army remains in Kirkuk now."
This in turn has put the output of the key Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, with a 1.6MM bbls/day capacity, at risk.
The militia were operating out of the headquarters of the Iraqi army's 2nd Division. The official said western parts of Kirkuk province were still under the control of fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, an al Qaeda offshoot.
Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, a spokesman for the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, said the al Qaeda-inspired group would advance on Karbala and Najaf, as well as the capital Baghdad, the Associated Press reported, citing an audio statement.
However, as we showed yesterday, the final ISIS target is none other than the city of Baghdad, and the overthrow of the Iraq government entirely.
In Tikrit, militants have set up military councils to run the towns they captured, residents said.
“They came in hundreds to my town and said they are not here for blood or revenge but they seek reforms and to impose justice. They picked a retired general to run the town,” said a tribal figure from the town of Alam, north of Tikrit.
“'Our final destination will be Baghdad, the decisive battle will be there,' that’s what their leader of the militants group kept repeating," the tribal figure said.
The powerful Shiite leader, Moqtada al-Sadr, urged his followers on Wednesday to form military units to defend the two cities, which along with Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia are considered sacred by Shiites.
Before he suspended its operations in 2008, Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army, once estimated to have nearly 60,000 members, played a major role in the country's Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflict.
His call for military mobilization came after Mr. Maliki said the government would arm citizens who volunteer to fight militants, after the fall of Mosul on Tuesday.
Security was stepped up in Baghdad to prevent the Sunni militants from reaching the capital, which is itself divided into Sunni and Shi'ite neighborhoods and saw ferocious sectarian street fighting in 2006-2007 under U.S. occupation.
* * *
The Kurdish capture of Kirkuk instantly overturns the fragile balance of power that has held Iraq together as a state since Saddam's fall.
Iraq's Kurds have done well since 2003, running their own affairs while being given a fixed percentage of the country's overall oil revenue. But with full control of Kirkuk - and the vast oil deposits beneath it - they could earn more on their own, eliminating the incentive to remain part of a failing Iraq.
Maliki's army already lost control of much of the Euphrates valley west of the capital to ISIL last year, and with the evaporation of the army in the Tigris valley to the north this week, the government could be left in control only of Baghdad and areas south.
The surge also potentially leaves the long desert frontier between Iraq and Syria effectively in ISIL hands, advancing its stated goal of erasing the border altogether and creating a single state ruled according to mediaeval Islamic principles.
Maliki described the fall of Mosul as a "conspiracy" and said the security forces who had abandoned their posts would be punished. He also said Iraqis were volunteering in several provinces to join army brigades to fight ISIL.
In a statement on its Twitter account, ISIL said it had taken Mosul as part of a plan "to conquer the entire state and cleanse it from the apostates", referring to the province of Nineveh of which the city is the capital.
Militants were reported to have executed soldiers and policemen after their seizure of some towns.
* * *
And while all of the above explains oil's spike today, now that the world has yet another geopolitical hotzone to follow, following the China-Japan naval conflict, the China-Vietnam escalation, the Thailand martial law, the Ukraine civil war and now the Iraq collapse, expect the USDJPY rigging crew to ignite enough momentum to send the S&P 500 to fresh all time highs.
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Does ISIS have a deal with the Kurds?
ISIS probably doesn't mind countries and regions that stay within their own borders and don't bother other countries and regions.
that maybe incorrect on two counts
- isis/isil are going for oil to fund their war machine. considering that kurds have their own claims, conflict is a matter of time.
- the isis/isil goals is to establish a caliphate, which is historically has always been imperialistic in its expensions
that's what makes this con. this could only be happening if "ISIS" have a deal with the Kurds and the Kurds are US allies so...it's a stunt.
Independent Kurdistan is now a fact. Hell, they might as well start dealing with the Iranians, shortest route for a new oil pipeline and it would all be through secure territory. Turkey and Iran have opposed such a state but the smart thing to do would be to recognize that facts on the ground have changed and work to create a good relationship.
this is beautiful.
this is precisely what ukraine will look like when the u.s. is done with it.
a total shitstorm. mass tribalism and depopulation. a fully corrupted capital city run by american lies.
i like it.
libya . check
syria . getting there.
iraq . check.
lebanon , dominoe after syria.
now i don't think iran is going to come down so easily.
and of course, the only value of taking on north korea is to get them to attack south korea, whose reaction and subsecquent fascist rising could be very useful against china.
seoul to beijing is 591 miles. nuclear tipped missiles routinely travel this distance in under 8 minutes from launch to detonation.
ww3 is coming bitches. could take 20 years but you know its coming. the real shit.
I think Syria is already there. That Humpty-Dumpty won't be put back together. Already ISIS or ISIL or whatever it is controls neighboring sections of Iraq and Syria. Assad won't be gettiing that area back. The Syrian government can consolidate areas under their control and start rebuilding. It will just be a smaller Syria. In that sense, they are better off than Iraq. Although southern Iraq and all that oil are pretty secure in Shia hands so it could become a smaller successful state or just be absorbed into Iran. Man, so much is in play right now. The Caucasus has never been known as a beacon of stability either....
Agree. The world is moving away from any 'national' support of a large country by different peoples into a fragmented feudal system.
Recipe for Failure: Let's take a region where local tribes of people have been fighting each other for centuries, proclaim it a 'modern' country with fixed borders independent of tribal populations, and install leadership that has neither the will nor the means to control the country.
You either need a brutal dictator to run the country - someone who will terrorize and arrest/kill their own non-tribal citizens and deprive them of even basic human rights -- or else the terrorists/rebels will take control of the country and terrorize and arrest/kill their own non-tribal citizens and deprive them of even basic human rights.
That pretty much sums up the area and much of, if not all, of Africa.
and then you start wondering why american oligarchs are so eager to stuff the country with more mexicans and south americans.
divide and conquer applies to foreign and domestic peoples' and nations. ....bitches.
When Russia was in Afghanistan it was the US arming rebels and making life hell for Russia.
I wonder if this is Russia aiding rebels to remind the US and Europe who owns the oil in this world. .and causing trouble in Ukraine can have blow back...ie Afghanistan
Balkanisation is a natural and logical phenomenon during the collapse of an empire. The best thing to do is to let it happen, do what you can to prevent genocide, see where the new boundaries are once things settle down, and then go from there.
Nation states are like, sooo 20th century, man.
It's a con. There's no fighting, it's just panicked civilians and soldiers told to stand down and pull back to give the neocains the opportunity to send US forces back to Iraq (to attack Syria).
I wonder how much the CIA "helped".
the MIC needs a war. Libya didnt work. Syria didnt work. Iran didnt work. And now Ukraine didnt work.
Lets go back to Iraq.
Iraq is the back door to Syria.
Syria is the back door to Iraq.
I have to wonder what the world would be like if kissinger had been strangled by his mother.
Now i will have to flip between bombing of civilians and worldcup.
Trivia question for game time:
Name the worldcup team countries that us has bombed, invaded, disrupted government, supported assasinations or overthrow of government
Too easy, all of them...
Someone below asked "Who benefits from all of this?"
Follow da money.
Can anyone really not believe SOMEBODY in our gubment knew all this was about to take place? Perhaps even facilitated it ala Benghazi?
Perpetual War is a key component to keeping the world upended in crisis and misery and despair for purposes of turning otherwise independent, freedom-loving, productive citizens into fearful serfs. "Oh geez, you'll give us security and peace in exchange for our liberties? Well dang, sign me up!"
Putin is a bad guy. Iran's getting da bomb. Bad guys in Syria. Iraq is being overrun by Al-schmada. Martha what we need is more democracy...more self-determination for these poor oppressed folk. Christ, them-that-know KNOW that democracy (majority gang-rule based on arbitrary values) for these peoples will only lead to more conflict. The friggin Iraqis just threw down their guns and RAN AWAY! There is nothing new under the sun here. Its not about freedom for the Iraqi people...they obviously don't value it enough to fight for it. Freedom to them is just a period of non-violence and non-harrassment to regain strength to wage war again against their historical enemies.
Just so happens that 'our side' is now taking it in the shorts, and we are suddenly their friend again.
I don't believe them-that-know are capable of orchestrating the dirty details or able to control things to any meaningful degre once sent in motion; their forte is macro-level machinations...the details on the ground are inconsequential. I pity the U.S. troops who are forced to get involved and risk/lose their lives, believing they are contributing to world peace and freedom, unwittingly contributing to the Plan through the blue print of Just War Theory.
More boogey man anyone?
TTK are dicks.
There goes the plan of hurting the russian economy by keeping oil prices low
Cmon, that's what the SPR is for.
I'm waiting for some intrepid reporter to find out that the ISIS's weapons were provided by Uncle Sam, training by the Green Berets, who just happened to divert their army from the Syrian-front to, well, dam near anywhere they want to go.
"The fall of Iraqi military stockpiles to ISIS has provided one of the most dramatic increases in the firepower of the forces seeking to topple the Syrian government since the US-backed civil war began. Hundreds of armored vehicles have been captured—enough to outfit a full armored division, according to one source. ISIS has overrun the Mosul airport, gaining access to military helicopters and other aircraft. Huge amounts of arms and ammunition have been seized, and virtually all of it is being sent back across the border into Syria. Thousands of Islamist prisoners have been freed from Iraqi jails to go and fight there."
http://www.globalresearch.ca/crimes-of-us-imperialism-and-the-fall-of-mo...
Putting on my conspiracy hat, this appears to be a great win for those still wanting the overthrow of the Assad government in Syria...
We as a nation are now responsible for the greatest bloodletting the ME has ever witnessed. And our government elitists will not suffer one scintilla of consequence. Had that dirty low caste, no class headhunter; Papa Doc Barack, only negotiated a final status of forces agreement with the Maliki government, stationing maybe one division of troops, this wouldn't be happening. But the Leftist swine in Amerika want the Levant to ascend so as to atone for the sins of empire. Of course just my opinion.
Big mistake violating international law and invading other sovereign nations.
Oh, for the days of Saddam Hussein.
I wonder what the US would be like today of the Project for New American Century had these goals:
1. Restore the dollar to a gold standard
2. Restore total Constitutional Law.
3. Restore the Social Security Trust Fund.
4. Promote Scientific and Industrial Research and Development to create new jobs in new fields
5. Close US military bases world-wide and instead focus on the actual needs and concerns of the American people
6. Instead of giving trillions to the banks, pay off all American mortgages and give those trillions directly to the population
7. With the flood of money given to the population who can now pay down all debt and use the money to stimulate economic growth, dramatically raise interest rates to control inflation.
8. Restore the nation's infrastructure.
9. Concentrate on the requirements of DEFENSE not projecting unending war.
#1....create an actual border with Mexico....guess some special interest group must want cheaper labor pouring into the U.S. as that is what is happening.
I have to wonder how this serves the rank and file union membership? You'd think that the labor unions would wish to protect their membership, but no.
I'm being serious with this - how do we know that this is "Al Qaeda" [whatever that means], leaving aside US support for Al Qaeda-like groups in Libya, Syria, and elsewhere when it suits its Bretton Woods/Petrodollar/Central Banking agenda... versus ordinary {Sunni} Iraqis opposed to the US puppet goverment?
Just as in Libya and Ukraine there has been opposition to a US puppet government...
In other words, to what extent are terms like "militant" and "Al Qaeda" magickal - getting us to stop asking further questions such as... wtf does that even really mean?
Who knows. Things are so bad they could be the humans and we could be the reptiles.
We can all debate whether the US should have ever been entangled in the ME, but let's face it, oil runs the world and even if we (and we could) can survive without the stranglehold of oil stationed in every barbaric Kingdom, Sheikdom, AyattolaStan, and dictatorship, the Europeans and Japan cannot.
If you believe that our security would be enhanced by a bi-polar sphere of influence with the Muslim barbarians led by Russia and China totally subjugating Europe and Japan and a US significantly neutered with the resultant consequence that every single int'l issue determined by them rather than hopefully a more moral position of a cleansed corrupt Amerika, then I do think we are deluding ourselves.
The issue to so damned complicated, and the US is no longer a moral beacon (all relative of course), but what are the citizens to do? We do not vote, we do not contribute to campaigns, so that the huge moneyed interests do in fact control every facet of our lives. Look what occurred just two days ago in Virginia's 7th Cong. District...$200,000 versus $5,000,000 defeated the House Majority Leader. It is a big deal, and those citizens of that district show that voting is more important than money. jmho
We'd have a safer oil supply if we kept our noses out of the area.
Peshmerga has always held Kirkuk, there is no Iraqi presence there.
I'm pretty upset today...just reading mostly the domestic headlines and this story of course, I haven't the stomach to read any further. It does truly appear that our world is unraveling; domestically for sure, and by extension the world. We are preparing, but it all was so unnecessary...all that was/is needed is for a few more million to wake the fuck up. Sorry for my blathering.
Called this on another site I frequent, but the situation is developing fast enough I haven't been able to keep up with developments between when I go to bed and before I'm off work the following day.
I said that the Al-CIA-da invasion of Mosul was good for Mosul in the long run since it'll give license to the Kurds to fully take over the area instead of the (very) loose power sharing that had been the defacto situation since shortly after the initial US invasion.
The Peshmerga don't fuck around. They don't let Arabs into their territories and Kurdistan is for all intents and purposes a defacto country.
Don't count on a Kurdistan, especially if the US isn't very publically committing itself to such an outcome. Turkey will under no circumstances permit it.
Just what the fuck did that asshole Bush think would be the long-term outcome?
I see my holding in ISIS was off today....wondering if there was further confusion in the HFT algo's as which ISIS was the problem?