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May Retail Sales Miss, Core Retail Sales Unchanged, Control Group Declines

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Another swing and a miss for the so-called Q2 GDP surge.

After April data was revised higher, with headline retail sales pushed from 0.1% to 0.5%, and core retail sales ex-autos and gas boosted from -0.1% to 0.3%, May showed a big drop in whatever momentum may have resulted from the March spending spree. As a result May headline retail sales missed expectations of a 0.6% increase, printing at 0.3%, with the entire positive print due to auto and gas sales. Indeed, when looking at core retail sales excluding autos and gas, these were unchanged from April, printing at 0.0%, far below the 0.4% expected.

As the table below shows, segments that saw a decline in May were Electronics stores (again), as well as food and beverage stores, health and personal care, clothing stores, sporting goods stores, restaurants, as well as general merchandise stores. In other words a decline across the board.

As usual, the biggest wildcard is just how accurate and relevant the seasonal adjustment is: the headline change from April to May was a substantial $26 billion, which however was neutered to just $1.5 billion when applying seasonal adjustment factors, which however as the ISM data recently showed, are nothing but a farce.

Finally, and what's worst for GDP calculations, the retail sales control group which goes into GDP calculations showed the first sequential decline since January when the full brunt of the "harsh weather" which is now said to have subtracted 2.0% from Q1 GDP hit. Clearly, US consumers are still delaying all those purchases they would have otherwise made in January.

Just blame it on the blamy balmy May weather.

 

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Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:48 | 4847959 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

imagine how bad the REAL data must have been!

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:51 | 4847968 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Real data....oxymoron. 

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:53 | 4847974 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

my bad, "non-manufactured" data

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:19 | 4848052 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

So the data manufacturing business is going gangbusters! Made in the USA!

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:51 | 4847970 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

I can't wait for higher gasoline prices.  It makes me want to spend spend spend.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:51 | 4847971 SpanishInquisition
SpanishInquisition's picture

Perhaps Al Queda will save our purported GDP by taking over Badgdad and making gas real expensive

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:52 | 4847975 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

June will be better, I bought some shoes yesterday, I am sure that helped the economy a lot. . . . you are welcome.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:13 | 4848027 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Me, too.  My car was banged up pretty good in a hail storm a few weeks ago (a rarity in the Philly area to have hail large enough to damage cars).  Quite literally "broken windows".  $4,600 to repair.  Fortunately it's covered by comprehensive.

Paul Krugman sent me a letter in the mail yesterday about it.  It read "Thanks for helping the economy.  I told you so!"

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:53 | 4847976 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

So Americans are driving their cars, but not going to stores or restaurants.... Better call the NSA and the hardened local cops to investigate these domestic terrorists...

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:06 | 4848011 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

The only stores I go to are to replenish my groceries, purchase gas and diesel, and get my tennis rackets restrung.

I buy the rest online, and it's only for replacment purposes.  

Went to a pizza joint to dine out earlier in the week-5 pm.  We got our pizzas, and I asked for parmasen.  They were out of both packets and bulk parmasen.  A pizza place out of parmasen?  

They were right across the street from a Costco.  

Why do I want to have those sorts of experiences on my own dime?

BTW I am not sure they are driving much.  US gasoline consumption is down sharply from 2006.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:53 | 4848172 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Can you send your worn out tennis balls to me?  My owner has been cutting back on his purchases of new tennis balls for me.

 

Thanks,

Insanely's dog

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 13:46 | 4849290 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Funny you say that about parmasen EJ.  Sundays are pizza night around here.  Been going to the same pizza joint for a few years, always got plenty of packets of cheese and red peppers.  A couple months back they said they didn't have parmasen any more, that they were switching to a different brand.  Last week they didn't even have the red peppers.  When I asked them about it they finally came clean and admitted they were cutting back, because they are barely hanging on.  Too bad, they have really good pizza.  If a good pizza joint, with their really high margins can't make it, I think most businesses are really screwed.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:53 | 4847977 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

it has been raining a bit lately...

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:54 | 4847982 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Joey LaVagina bought a snow globe...we're all doomed.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 11:47 | 4848673 graneros
graneros's picture

I hear ya and I'm with ya Brother, Fonz.  Scary shit that is.  We've had rain, and groppel, even had some cool weather, followed by warm days.  Imagine how frightened all the children are.  I mean my God... Spring Weather in the Rockies. The first thing I thought when all this Spring sweather broke out was that ol' jingle my Mom used to sing every Spring "April showers bring May... problems for retail." It went something like that.

I was gonna go to town today but I see rain clouds over the mountain and I just can't take that chance.  I mean I really need some cheap plastic Chinese shit from Walmart to add to our collection but the weather is suppose to be in the 70's with a chance of a t/storm or two and it frightens me so. I truly wanna do my part and all but Christ man it's freakin' Spring out there.

The worst part is that it's almost Summer and then all hell will break loose with hot weather everywhere.  I may never get to add to my "give to goodwill" or "take to the dump after a week" piles if this weather shit keeps up.  I'm frightened where's the deer.  I need to see the deer goddammit. Tyler help me please.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:58 | 4847993 I woke up
I woke up's picture

"Under my plan (electricity) gasoline rates would necessarily skyrocket"

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 08:58 | 4847996 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

May snow can be a real bitch

Having to put those snow tires on in 8o degree heat too much headache.  So I'll just pass on that trip to the mall

But I promise, next month I will charge twice as much on crap to make up for it.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:03 | 4848005 failure to perform
failure to perform's picture

The company I work for has a retail store.  sales are in the toilet. but they have pre season orders for the fall so all is well.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:04 | 4848009 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Just wait untill you see the european industrial orders...

I thought there was a mistake in the numbers...

-8,21%... just insane... in Q2 so far

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:30 | 4848080 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Oh fuck here comes QE in Europe...

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:04 | 4848010 ms8172
ms8172's picture

Interest rates at record lows 0% for banks.......FED purchasing our Treasury bonds and toxic MBS from banks......Europe is now at negative deposit rates and printing more money......Japan has been printing a unprecidented amount for years.......CNBC/Boomberg/FOX/CNN are all talking about we are in a recovery.......Stock markets are at all time highs!........

 

SO CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN TO ME WTF.... WE CAN'T EVEN PRINT A POSITIVE GDP IN 1ST QUARTER WITH ALL THIS STIMULOUS??

 

 

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:17 | 4848044 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Clearly if Japan would just by more equities for it's pension fund the economy would really take off!!!

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 10:17 | 4848280 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

@ MS8,

Yeah, I can explain "it", but you won't like it. We live in a surreal MATRIX. You saw the movie. There are currently three types of batteries; 1. Those who are profiting from the deception, and love the lies, and they themselves extend those same lies to further enrich themselves. 2. Then there is the Ignorant. These are those who work in media, and those waiting to watch a kickball game in Brazil. They don't know either truth or lies - and are simply being prepared to be made food for category "1".

Then, there's us. Catagory #3. We understand and are infuriated by the lies and depths of deception. We see the big con. We see the international spider web growing throughout the earth, We hear it in the mainstream news while others can't. But in truth, we are in as much danger as catagory 2. We just wait for its coming - and what good is that?

We will still die at the feet of these sick overlords. Don't put your hope in the temporary. Seek and find it in the eternal.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 10:21 | 4848295 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture
We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. George Orwell

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:06 | 4848018 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

So what? April was revised much higher than previously reported.

Why follow these numbers? Why even waste your time on them? If they're all manipulated - I don't think all of them are, just most of them - then what's the use?

You'd might as well ruminate on professional wrestling.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:16 | 4848042 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Watcha gonna do when the Hulkster runs wild on you?

LOL, thanks for the pro wrestling mention...

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:10 | 4848025 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Only things selling well are hand guns, ammo, lotto scratch-off tickets, kors watches, some high end cars and going out of business signs.  The depression deepens.

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:15 | 4848037 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

In other news...

Twitter's chief operating officer has resigned

Hmmmmm..... that's not good no details yet though...

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:20 | 4848053 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Bullish!

Why bother reporting any numbers, since they are all rigged...

Nothing but a black swan will bring down these markets.

By tonight all of Iraq will be in the hands of ISIS...  Bullish!

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:23 | 4848063 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

great scott!!

 

look at the futures indexes?

 

they're red!!!!

 

 

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:27 | 4848075 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

No doubt red flashing lights and bomb shelter quality sirens are going off at the Fed...  Time to buy more equities for the "other" balance sheet...

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:45 | 4848131 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

there is a 3 hour delay at the GWB, they are running late, it will go green later

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:25 | 4848067 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Auto sales are complete bullshit.  Leasing (buying only a portion of the car) and 6 + year loans with essentially no credit history required to purchase.  They are pushing this crap off the lot any way they can.  You need more credit to buy a fucking pair of jeans for God's sake....

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 09:52 | 4848170 undertowed
undertowed's picture

Retail? Come on. Who has money for that kind of luxury anymore?

Thu, 06/12/2014 - 10:02 | 4848221 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Where's my POMO calendar?

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