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Zen And The Art Of Trading Crude With Dennis Gartman
He's funny cause he's... funny.
We are short of Brent while long of WTI, but the political situation over which we’ve no control has taken control of this spread rendering our position intolerable and forcing us to run for cover upon receipt of this commentary. Not to do so would be trading foolishness of the first order
Because in all other situtations when Gartman "puts" on crude positions (with whose money?) which are always a function of geopolitics, he does so only when he has control over the "political situation"? Gotcha.
Incidentally, here are the "trades" Gartman has on:
- Long of Seven Units of Gold/short of Two Units of the Yen and Five of the EUR
- Long of Three Units of the Canadian dollar/short of Three Units of the EUR
- Long of Two Units of new crop Hard Red Winter wheat/short of two units of Soft Red Winter Wheat
- Long of the four units of “dollars” and one Unit of Sterling/short of five units of the Yen
- Long of One Unit of August WTI crude/short of One Unit of August Brent crude
No, really.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaDzkyplitE
Was that "Trading Crude" or "Crude Trading"?
Or maybe, "Paying for Crude Trading Advice from Rude Dude"
OMG!!!
Gartman is long Gold???!!!
SELL!!! SELL!!! SELL!!!
PAST RESULTS ARE NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BTC gained about $200 since gartman said that it should be avoided and it's only used by criminals :)
of course he was on the wrong side...this fukk is uncanny!
A worthy replacement for Tom Stolper's recently vacated position as "the world's most wrong person".
I suspect Dennis has the opposite problem of many traders: he has lost confidence in his own instincts and is simply tape chasing. The only problem is chasing the tape will lead to a negative alpha, shocking I know.
meh. Do you think an Archer joke about ISIS will go over well at OPEC ?
Kurdistan will likely break out, and carry higher. Qatar is the swing for my gut feel. But at this stage it's a RAND statistical exercise now in threat analysis.
Hold on a second, I have a very important question.
Are we talking about paper crude or physical crude?
Definitely "paper" or he would be selling "calls"...
Anybody have the YTD ROI on the short Gartman trade?
I'm waiting to invest in the new i-shares triple-short Gartman ETF.
Tyler. I thought you wre going to launch that fund. Been waiting. I wanna get short of 10 units of Gartman in Tyler terms.
Gartman: "I am short lithium, while being long BiPolarness".
did you mean "I am short of lithium, while being long of bipolarness"
You forgot (?)
...while long of WTI
bless you my son, bless you!
He is putting lie to the adage that a broken clock is correct twice a day....
Wow I don't know who is worse, Fartman or Stolper.
His newsletter is only $400 per month.......
I'm short, the truth and long, ass fucking..
he speaks in units because he lost all his cash years ago.
just like the nigerian bros he never really trades just sellin them thar books .
Gartman stories getting old like ZH has the best record.
Why doesnt tyler start posting some TRADES?? would be good for a laugh too
did you even bother to read the disclaimer?
You mean ZH's 'record' of speaking the truth? Seems like the Tylers are batting .1000 in that department.
Speaking of Zen, he talks like Wyland from Lost Horizon. One only has to speak that way when one has no fucking idea what one is saying.
Yeah, yeah "who needs oil at Zero Hedge when you have Peak Stupidy."
Total now has a 700K a day platform coming on line in Angola...with expectations of 2 million.
A DAY.
Stock price even popped on the news.
Of course natural gas is shooting higher today...as with Tesla, as with Solar City.
Too bad the USA has none of that.
Oh, wait...
A broken clock is correct twice per day, but a perfectly functioning clock that is set 5 minutes fast is wrong 100% of the time.
Mr. Gartman's "Golden Rules":
1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position... not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading's carcinogen; it is trading's driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!
2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.
3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.
4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.
5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in Bear Markets, One Can Only Be Short or Neutral—This may seem self-evident; few understand it, however, and fewer still embrace it.
6. "Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent." -These are Keynes' words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish, we need to throw rocks into the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish, we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.
8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors turn to profits; in "bad times," the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we've known have the simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!
11. In Trading/Investing, an Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, "When they are cryin', you should be buyin'! And when they are yellin', you should be sellin'!"
12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are; we accept it as fact and we move on.
13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.
14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year... and our profits grow accordingly.
15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a "secret" to trading (and of life), this is it.
16. All Rules Are Meant to Be Broken.... but Only Very, Very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and still prosper.
As my Dad would say............. what a jack-ass-hole.
Anyone who puts their ideas about the future out for all to see is going to be wrong. Alot. I do not see a problem with that. Gartman does make an easy target for snarking and so he gets snarked here at ZH. I do not have a problem with that. But Four chan talked about the fact that he trades units as meaning he has no cash. What that really demonstrates is how very little Four chan understands about trading. If you know anything about Richard Dennis (maybe you shoould look it up) or the Turtle experiment, or really any bet sizing system related to either gambling or trading you would know that one speaks in Units because different people will have different pools of capital and so you size your trades in units that scale relative to the size of your account or you can have them as units of risk if you prefer. The money he trades is his own mostly in my understanding, so unlike Keith McCullogh, Gartman has skin in the game.
Tyler missed the really quirky and self-contradictory part of today;s Gartman Letter. And that is that what he wrote right before the crude trade presented here. Gartman wants to add to his long gold/short euro trade but is at a small loss and so cannot do so because his trading rules say to add to winners and never to losers. A good rule. But the long KE/short ZW trade is going against him yet he is adding to that trade today, so isn't that contradictory? The reason I think it is not is that he is probably ahead on the wheat trade and so is not adding ot a loser but adding to a winner on a retracement, thus consistent with the rules..
It ain't what Mr. Gartman says. It's the pompous-ass, smug way he says it.
point taken. fair enough.
I'm Long "Oh long Johnson" the talking cat.
Learn the secret formula which in easy way will make you a perfect investor and trader;) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l85Ms85A0QQ
I bet Gartman and Krugman have lunch and talk about broken windows.
Bet on human greed and basic stupity, you'll win more often than not...