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The Baltic Dry Index Is Having Its Worst Year Ever

Tyler Durden's picture




 

At 906, the Baltic Dry Index slumped to 12-month lows showing absolutely no signs whatsoever of the Q2 renaissance in global growth that has been heralded by all the highly-paid meteoroconomists.

 

In fact, thanks to increasing fears over China's commodity financing ponzi scheme, this is the worst year for the Baltic Dry on record.

 

Of course, we will hear the echo chamber of 'over-supply' of ships rather than any 'under-demand' of actual aggregate product argument but the circularity of this argument is entirely lost on status quo huggers who viewed rising dry bulk commodity prices as indicative of growth (and built more ships) as opposed to the ponzi-financing scheme it really was... mal-investment writ large once again in a manipulated (and mismanaged) world.

 

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Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:33 | 4854565 Cattender
Cattender's picture

it means Nothing... Buy Fake Stock QUICKLY Before WWIII Starts!

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:48 | 4854573 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Baltic Dry is taking on some water.

If this downward trajectory persists in 6 months time they will have to pay you to ship your goods... which will likely arrive by submarine...

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:49 | 4854608 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Oh come on,  I thought everything was all better now.   They take every chance they get to tell us how all the jobs are back and that the great recession / depression is over.

 

And then there's this:

 

PENTAGON PREPARING FOR MASS CIVIL BREAKDOWN June 12, 2014
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SOURCE: THE GUARDIAN

Social science is being militarised to develop 'operational tools' to target peaceful activists and protest movements

A US Department of Defense (DoD) research programme is funding universities to model the dynamics, risks and tipping points for large-scale civil unrest across the world, under the supervision of various US military agencies. The multi-million dollar programme is designed to develop immediate and long-term "warfighter-relevant insights" for senior officials and decision makers in "the defense policy community," and to inform policy implemented by "combatant commands."

Launched in 2008 – the year of the global banking crisis – the DoD 'Minerva Research Initiative' partners with universities "to improve DoD's basic understanding of the social, cultural, behavioral, and political forces that shape regions of the world of strategic importance to the US."

Among the projects awarded for the period 2014-2017 is a Cornell University-led study managed by the US Air Force Office of Scientific Research which aims to develop an empirical model "of the dynamics of social movement mobilisation and contagions." The project will determine "the critical mass (tipping point)" of social contagians by studying their "digital traces" in the cases of "the 2011 Egyptian revolution, the 2011 Russian Duma elections, the 2012 Nigerian fuel subsidy crisis and the 2013 Gazi park protests in Turkey."

Twitter posts and conversations will be examined "to identify individuals mobilised in a social contagion and when they become mobilised."

Another project awarded this year to the University of Washington "seeks to uncover the conditions under which political movements aimed at large-scale political and economic change originate," along with their "characteristics and consequences." The project, managed by the US Army Research Office, focuses on "large-scale movements involving more than 1,000 participants in enduring activity," and will cover 58 countries in total.

 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 18:34 | 4855140 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Thought Processor... Thanks for these links. That is exactly what is about to happen.

And many hedgers here are talking about growth, socialism, and so much nonsense.

Get ready for major nations wars and major civil wars as oil and natural gas shortages start kicking in full gear.

Then, watch out for US default on its debt as the global reserve currency noses dive.

There is NO precedent for what is about to happen… beside plenty of ignorance!

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 18:39 | 4855152 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

And the link below should be a "Must Read" by all Americans.... and many Hedgers

http://www.voltairenet.org/article30031.html  

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:49 | 4854611 knukles
knukles's picture

Geh  uhc  hckhh   hagggg urrrmph  dry heaves   uhmppppppppppsss

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:55 | 4854628 max2205
max2205's picture

Maybe that's where all the copper is hiding. In those empty ships

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:50 | 4854613 flacon
flacon's picture

A non-managed world is ideal, as opposed to a "mis-managed" or even "well-managed" world. 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:07 | 4854669 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Not for the managers making a nice buck doing the managing.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 10:30 | 4856428 skidsmango1
skidsmango1's picture

it is a 'bottoming pattern' and there is nothing to fear...

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:39 | 4854580 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

Ipad air is much thinner than older models, so fewer ships are needed.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:43 | 4854591 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Tasty too.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:41 | 4854589 hardmedicine
hardmedicine's picture

They haven't sold all the junk from 2009!  Shut down the Chinese Slave Junk ships.

 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:45 | 4854598 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

The end result of most of the trade being done on paper.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:50 | 4854616 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Hasn't the weather been pretty bad this year?

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:51 | 4854620 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

Unless I'm reading this wrong, how is this year worse than 9000 to 1000 in 2008

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:56 | 4854631 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

Actually *looking* at the charts is cheating, ya know...    ;)

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:55 | 4854625 semperfi
semperfi's picture

is it called "dry" because the ship shipping ships are being shipped by shipping ships (out of the water) ?

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:58 | 4854634 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

"status quo huggers" - is this the debut of this term?  If so I emphatically endorse it.  Nice one!

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:01 | 4854640 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

It's just going back to the 1983-2003 historical average.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index#mediaviewer/File:BDI.png

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:01 | 4854646 strangewalk
strangewalk's picture

It's good, there'll be an emtpy ship for all the CEO's who dismantled the American industrial base and sent it to the gulags, and another one for the bought-off politicians who enabled them. Free ride to Hell. 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:05 | 4854656 sharonsj
sharonsj's picture

Is this why Walmart's shelves have empty spaces?  Seriously, I saw a headline that broccoli was going to $7 thanks to climate change.  When the sheeple who can't afford today's prices get a load of what else they can't afford--that's why the goverment is arming itself.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:17 | 4854710 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"comme ci.....comme ca"

 

Too mnay ships due to too much free money.....too few goods due to too little 'recovery'.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:29 | 4854744 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The world doesn't need more Chinese Junk.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:30 | 4854748 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I'm so glad that the days are over where hard economic data like this would affect the price of my stocks.  

This is the easiest investment market in the history of the world to make money in (so easy even a banker could do it).  Buy what the Fed wants you to buy and you'll be richly rewarded.  Go against their wishes and you'll wish you hadn't.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:53 | 4854824 TVP
TVP's picture

So what you're saying is.....buy gold?

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 21:40 | 4855593 Angus McHugepenis
Angus McHugepenis's picture

No you twat, what NoDebt is saying is that the BDI is in "dry dock"... and buy paladium... and... and... oh fuck it.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:52 | 4854821 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Calm down, it's winter now in Australia.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:01 | 4854851 lex parsimoniae
lex parsimoniae's picture

cool! i've been looking for a new yacht, maybe I could by an idle cargo ship cheap and just add staterooms!

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:44 | 4855007 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

On the bright side- those of us who actually produce stuff, add value and then put container loads on ships every month can now do so cheaper, which lessens the FRB/inflation pain on buyers.

(unfortunately finding buyers is also getting more difficult in certain markets)

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 21:46 | 4855609 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

You can sell the surplus containers to CA, AZ and TX since thye might need portable, cheap, housing....especially units with the locks on the outside.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:15 | 4854916 venturen
venturen's picture

But Wall Street Bonuses are a record and so are printed Dollars....so Inflation is guaranteed when Goldman buys up every commodity 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:34 | 4854969 venturen
venturen's picture

gold bars weigh so much less now 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:42 | 4854998 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

...(and mismanaged) world.

 

The world is only mismanaged if you believe that their real goal is to restore the economy and assist the lower classes. However, if you take the position that theyt created the crisis to justify their looting of the Treasury, I'd say everything is going according to plan.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:42 | 4854999 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

...(and mismanaged) world.

 

The world is only mismanaged if you believe that their real goal is to restore the economy and assist the lower classes. However, if you take the position that theyt created the crisis to justify their looting of the Treasury, I'd say everything is going according to plan.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 18:27 | 4855118 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Can you say the "Greatest Depression"... 2007- ?

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 18:27 | 4855119 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Can you say the "Greatest Depression"... 2007- ?

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 18:46 | 4855167 novictim
novictim's picture

If companies around the world continue to follow their natural instincts and pay the peeps shit wages then, of course (!), all indices of  trade will falter.

You have to have consumers with money to spend before they can spend money!

(I hope this is not too controversial for ZH.)

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 19:03 | 4855210 Alananda
Alananda's picture

QUICK!  Telegraph to Brandon Smith @ alt-market.com!  BS has used this index to predict the financial denoument of the US, Inc., and perhaps even the whole of Western World's financial system.  Perhaps we'll get an even better fix on the disaster promised for June, including June 22 (divided by 2, 3/11, Fukushima).  For the predictive programming detected for June 22, try Vigilant Citizen, Veterans Today, and other observant, if not absolutely prescient sites!

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 20:00 | 4855355 kurt
kurt's picture

ZeroHedge Monthly Retelling of a Non-Story

BDI has been dead and is bumping along the bottom like an unused ship in an abandoned port. Nothing changed, nothing new. Obviously a checklist item on the intern's calendar app.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 21:53 | 4855633 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Perhaps the shipping companies might wish to re-route a few extra score of carriers off the Somalia coast? Of course, after they are adequately insured by LLoyds.

 

That would help remove some of the excess carrying capacity and once the Somalies are up to their ears in ships with no one paying for them, they might quit taking them. A win win.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 22:11 | 4855687 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

We're entering the deflation stage of the bust. The second part of the "W" shaped depression. No, the Central Banks won't keep doing QE as a rule. They may make a couple injections to slow the decent of the correction in equities though so consider timing of this leg down as a couple years verse "collapse". The collapse already happened we are entering a correction phase. The good news is that if geopolitics don't spin out of control (why I hedge it ia very possible) then by 2016 things should begin to show improvement.

The IMF is denominating dollars to Yuan as they are bew deserve currency so no "rushing of dollars creating hyperinflation" scenario. Don't make that trade or you will get slaughtered. Commodity prices should start easing by fall but will bounce around a little on the decline. Gold is not where I will be investinf I expect it to decline a bit and move sidways for years.

For me doing RE already, some light commodity shorts soon and revisiting stocks in 2016. Voter revolution is happening and I hope real revolution is avoided which as many already have pointed out why DHS and other agencies are prepared for the contigency. Read Russian revolution history and learn as the Russians did. Your better pretending to work as they pretend to pay you then be misled into a revolution which would be manipulated by foreign powers all under the umbrella of CFR and BIS.
I am no coward but even Jesus Christ knew when to run or advise people of Jerusalem to flee when he knew the Romans would squash there rebellion. There is a time and place for everything and I am at least encouraged that those with real money are now arguing for reform. A monetary revolution. That happens when growth stops for this class.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 13:02 | 4856755 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The TPTB are going to get what they wanted but not what they intended.....

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 14:24 | 4856931 screw face
screw face's picture

Those EGGHEADS are full of shit.....brace thy selves.

zerohedge #FUKU

fc

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 08:16 | 4858198 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

A big shift is occurring in what consumers are buying. Recently we are witnessing a shift from general consumer goods to more purchases of autos and healthcare. The first quarter GDP just came out down 1% yet these two sectors have been outperforming the economy. 

If indeed online and auto sales are roaring up double digits at the same time healthcare spending has increased 4.2% it is only fair to assume small business and someone else is getting their ass kicked. Interestingly, this is all occurring as the government continues to pour out billions of dollars each month in student loans, many of these loans will never be repaid. This can be viewed as more proof we are on the wrong path, more on this subject in the article below.

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/consumption-of-autos-healthcare-a...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!