Why Q2 GDP Will Disappoint In 1 Chart

Tyler Durden's picture

Q1 was "weather" - extreme cold and storms that wiped out (according to the PhD meteoroconomists) hundreds of billions of GDP (and appears to be getting worse). Recent macro data suggests the Q2 bounce (from all that pent-up demand) is slow in appearing (if at all)... We suspect the following chart will be used as blame (and to reassure that Q3 or Q4 or Q10... will see the hockey-stick pick back up)



This is the 5th week in a row that 100% of California is in severe, extreme, or exceptional drought...

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kowalli's picture

reality is ever worse, they manipulate the water level indicators in lakes

Joe Davola's picture

Don't worry, Jake Gittes has a nose for these things.

ZerOhead's picture

If the Q2 problem stems from the drought then the next 200 or so Q1-Q4's are going to look absolutely awful...


Headbanger's picture

Welcome to the Hotel California..


What cracks me up is seeing you fucking la la land fuctards out there believing your own bullshit that it should and must be the land of milk and honey

When it's really just an arid coastal climate that was never meant to support millions of "nuts, fruits, and flakes" like the cereal bowl it's been!

Ta ta!


nightshiftsucks's picture

Yeah and I hope you like or high produce prices dickhead,oh yeah I forgot you only eat shit fuctard.That's okay I'll just sell my house for a fucking huge amount of moneytake my huge 401k and move somewhere cheaper,living in Ca has it's advanages.

drstrangelove73's picture

Gardener:"Bad for glass."

Gittes :"What did you say?"

Gardner(gestures at hose nozzle):"Bad for glass..."

LawsofPhysics's picture

Why?  Because the rest of the U.S. simply can't make anything or grow anything on their own.  Fuck California, they will be renegotiating water rights soon enough.  When it comes to food/water chains in the west, it's all about elevation.


Is there an ETF out there for rocky mountain water providers...

NidStyles's picture

Imagine that a drought when you live in a desert. 

ZerOhead's picture

"When it comes to food/water chains in the west, it's all about elevation."

By "elevation" you mean that water flows uphill towards money right?

Cymore Duttz's picture

Its a bullish indicator! Buy buy buy.

Cymore Duttz's picture

Its a bullish indicator! Buy buy buy.

Cymore Duttz's picture

Its a bullish indicator! Buy buy buy.

1fortheroad's picture

Brother, can you spare a head of lettuce?

FieldingMellish's picture

That's not good. Grow your own.

canonball's picture

Bullish indicator for Belgium to have waffles and then buy up all the treasuries

Wait What's picture

Paging captain obvious.

101 years and counting's picture

then, they'd have to admit there's inflation.  which is unpossible.  remember, people are (still) in sticker shock from their January heating bills.  

ebworthen's picture

Summer is almost here.

Come June 21st it will be too sweltering hot to work or shop.  HEAT in SUMMER! 

Just as soon as the Fall is here GDP will recover, unless falling leaves get in the way.

MarkD's picture

Californians won't have to travel to Black Rock Desert Nevada to experiance the Burning Man event.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Drought,  no worries.   We're still growing tons of RICE! 

1stepcloser's picture

Lets not panic until they run out of Brawndo!

machineh's picture

"I believe in California exceptionalism with every fiber of my being." -- Barack Obama

Mitch Comestein's picture

What do you expect living in a desert!  Out in the south central (Kansas that is) we have water pooling everywhere.  I haven't watered my lawn in over a month.


Interesting that someone up in the stack posted the 100 year drought article from the daily mail.  In the article it stated that it was the worst drought in CA since 1580.  Good to know that in 1580 the carbon reduction programs instituted my the Spanish and Indians worked back then to give the state 600 more years of prosperity!

Dr. Destructo's picture

You need massive amounts of fuel, water, and chemicals to sustain industrial agriculture, and eventually it'll all cave in on itself.

However, I would recommend spacing out your crops considerably next season. Yes the yields won't be as good but you'll still be able to grow something. I also recommend terrace farming. hardy, warm-weather crops such as Amaranth is recommended.

Learn biomimicry and pay attention to desert plants such as the agave, then tailor that to your irrigation system. When you build your irrigation system either use plastic sheet or a very thick clay (preferably both) to line the bottom of your reservoir to retain your water more effectively. This can all be done on your land if you have a backyard, and even works in the farm setting. We gotta stop approaching agriculture like Americans (Maximum profit, little work) and start adopting smarter practices.

Woodrox's picture

plastic reervoir?.....straight BPA intravenious through digestive absorption in the food source


orangegeek's picture

Q2 will disappoint because the USA is in a fucking depression.


When Yellen stops playing stupid grade school like games with the markets, we may see the markets reflect this reality.


But Yellen doesn't want to scare the children - so while Q1 GDP was forecast at 4.7%, and now sits at -1.6% and falling (even though it's June), markets are at all time highs.




Duke Dog's picture

You know what, I think as soon as people stop looking at graphs and charts, and instead their wallets, they will understand a lot more. Almost every household in my neighborhood (upper middle class for now) has a least one adult "child"/parent/grandparent living in their home due to economic reasons. The effect of this is not bad in IMO, but the cause is fucking frightening.

I know ZHr's don't need to be told, but just in case anyone else is lurking.

Policraticus's picture

People used to flock to California because of the weather and now California is doomed because of the weather. I will just have to think about this for a while. Alright, I am done thinking. Every problem we have is due to the weather. I am now forced to move to somewhere where there is no weather. Again, I will have to think about this for a while. Alright, I am done thinking. Perhaps a desert area would work. Let's see I have heard that California has some good areas where weather does not fluctuate. Yes, that is it, I will move to California. This seems like a circular argument to me which is hard to digest because, everyone who knows me will admit that I am your typical square.

Dazman's picture

Na, they will use "geopolitical events" as the excuse. Shit they probably engineered the Iraq thing just to have an excuse.