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Why Q2 GDP Will Disappoint In 1 Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Q1 was "weather" - extreme cold and storms that wiped out (according to the PhD meteoroconomists) hundreds of billions of GDP (and appears to be getting worse). Recent macro data suggests the Q2 bounce (from all that pent-up demand) is slow in appearing (if at all)... We suspect the following chart will be used as blame (and to reassure that Q3 or Q4 or Q10... will see the hockey-stick pick back up)

 

 

This is the 5th week in a row that 100% of California is in severe, extreme, or exceptional drought...

 

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Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:57 | 4854630 kowalli
kowalli's picture

reality is ever worse, they manipulate the water level indicators in lakes

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:08 | 4854670 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Don't worry, Jake Gittes has a nose for these things.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:23 | 4854729 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

If the Q2 problem stems from the drought then the next 200 or so Q1-Q4's are going to look absolutely awful...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2575591/California-mega-drought-...

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:49 | 4854806 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Welcome to the Hotel California..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0G1Ucw5HDg

What cracks me up is seeing you fucking la la land fuctards out there believing your own bullshit that it should and must be the land of milk and honey

When it's really just an arid coastal climate that was never meant to support millions of "nuts, fruits, and flakes" like the cereal bowl it's been!

Ta ta!

 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 19:39 | 4855305 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Yeah and I hope you like or high produce prices dickhead,oh yeah I forgot you only eat shit fuctard.That's okay I'll just sell my house for a fucking huge amount of moneytake my huge 401k and move somewhere cheaper,living in Ca has it's advanages.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 18:39 | 4855153 Ghostdog
Sat, 06/14/2014 - 09:39 | 4856338 drstrangelove73
drstrangelove73's picture

Gardener:"Bad for glass."

Gittes :"What did you say?"

Gardner(gestures at hose nozzle):"Bad for glass..."

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:59 | 4854635 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Why?  Because the rest of the U.S. simply can't make anything or grow anything on their own.  Fuck California, they will be renegotiating water rights soon enough.  When it comes to food/water chains in the west, it's all about elevation.

 

Is there an ETF out there for rocky mountain water providers...

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:59 | 4854638 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Imagine that a drought when you live in a desert. 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:24 | 4854667 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

"When it comes to food/water chains in the west, it's all about elevation."

By "elevation" you mean that water flows uphill towards money right?

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:06 | 4854663 Cymore Duttz
Cymore Duttz's picture

Its a bullish indicator! Buy buy buy.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:06 | 4854664 Cymore Duttz
Cymore Duttz's picture

Its a bullish indicator! Buy buy buy.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:06 | 4854666 Cymore Duttz
Cymore Duttz's picture

Its a bullish indicator! Buy buy buy.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:07 | 4854668 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Brother, can you spare a head of lettuce?

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:10 | 4854679 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

That's not good. Grow your own.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:12 | 4854688 canonball
canonball's picture

Bullish indicator for Belgium to have waffles and then buy up all the treasuries

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:13 | 4854693 Wait What
Wait What's picture

Paging captain obvious.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:13 | 4854694 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

then, they'd have to admit there's inflation.  which is unpossible.  remember, people are (still) in sticker shock from their January heating bills.  

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:17 | 4854709 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Summer is almost here.

Come June 21st it will be too sweltering hot to work or shop.  HEAT in SUMMER! 

Just as soon as the Fall is here GDP will recover, unless falling leaves get in the way.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:21 | 4854725 MarkD
MarkD's picture

Californians won't have to travel to Black Rock Desert Nevada to experiance the Burning Man event.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:33 | 4854756 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Drought,  no worries.   We're still growing tons of RICE! 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:34 | 4854762 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Lets not panic until they run out of Brawndo!

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:47 | 4854812 machineh
machineh's picture

"I believe in California exceptionalism with every fiber of my being." -- Barack Obama

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 16:54 | 4854829 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

What do you expect living in a desert!  Out in the south central (Kansas that is) we have water pooling everywhere.  I haven't watered my lawn in over a month.

 

Interesting that someone up in the stack posted the 100 year drought article from the daily mail.  In the article it stated that it was the worst drought in CA since 1580.  Good to know that in 1580 the carbon reduction programs instituted my the Spanish and Indians worked back then to give the state 600 more years of prosperity!

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:45 | 4854844 Dr. Destructo
Dr. Destructo's picture

You need massive amounts of fuel, water, and chemicals to sustain industrial agriculture, and eventually it'll all cave in on itself.

However, I would recommend spacing out your crops considerably next season. Yes the yields won't be as good but you'll still be able to grow something. I also recommend terrace farming. hardy, warm-weather crops such as Amaranth is recommended.

Learn biomimicry and pay attention to desert plants such as the agave, then tailor that to your irrigation system. When you build your irrigation system either use plastic sheet or a very thick clay (preferably both) to line the bottom of your reservoir to retain your water more effectively. This can all be done on your land if you have a backyard, and even works in the farm setting. We gotta stop approaching agriculture like Americans (Maximum profit, little work) and start adopting smarter practices.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 08:16 | 4856227 Woodrox
Woodrox's picture

plastic reervoir?.....straight BPA intravenious through digestive absorption in the food source

 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:06 | 4854871 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Q2 will disappoint because the USA is in a fucking depression.

 

When Yellen stops playing stupid grade school like games with the markets, we may see the markets reflect this reality.

 

But Yellen doesn't want to scare the children - so while Q1 GDP was forecast at 4.7%, and now sits at -1.6% and falling (even though it's June), markets are at all time highs.

 

 

 

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 18:07 | 4855033 Duke Dog
Duke Dog's picture

You know what, I think as soon as people stop looking at graphs and charts, and instead their wallets, they will understand a lot more. Almost every household in my neighborhood (upper middle class for now) has a least one adult "child"/parent/grandparent living in their home due to economic reasons. The effect of this is not bad in IMO, but the cause is fucking frightening.

I know ZHr's don't need to be told, but just in case anyone else is lurking.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 23:04 | 4855787 Policraticus
Policraticus's picture

People used to flock to California because of the weather and now California is doomed because of the weather. I will just have to think about this for a while. Alright, I am done thinking. Every problem we have is due to the weather. I am now forced to move to somewhere where there is no weather. Again, I will have to think about this for a while. Alright, I am done thinking. Perhaps a desert area would work. Let's see I have heard that California has some good areas where weather does not fluctuate. Yes, that is it, I will move to California. This seems like a circular argument to me which is hard to digest because, everyone who knows me will admit that I am your typical square.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 00:32 | 4855917 Dazman
Dazman's picture

Na, they will use "geopolitical events" as the excuse. Shit they probably engineered the Iraq thing just to have an excuse.

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