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New York Times Says "Lack Of Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It is no secret that as the Fed's centrally-planned New Normal has unfolded, one after another central-planner and virtually all economists, have been caught wrong-footed with their constant predictions of an "imminent" economic surge, any minute now, and always just around the corner. And yet, nearly six years after Lehman, five years after the end of the last "recession" (even as the depression for most rages on), America is about to have its worst quarter in decades (excluding the great financial crisis), with a -2% collapse in GDP, which has been blamed on... the weather.

That's right: economists are the only people who will look anyone in the eye, and suggest that it was harsh weather that smashed global trade, pounded retail sales (in the process freezing the internet because people it was so cold nobody shopped online), and even with soaring utility usage and the Obamacare induced capital misallocation still led to world's largest economy to a 5% plunge from initial estimates for 3% growth in Q1. In other words, a delta of hundreds of billion in "growth lost or uncreated" due to, well, snow in the winter.

Sadly for the same economists, now that Q2 is not shaping up to be much better than Q1, other, mostly climatic, excuses have arisen: such as El Nino, the California drought, and even suggestions that, gasp, as a result of the Fed's endless meddling in the economy, the terminal growth rate of the world has been permanently lowered to 2% or lower.

What is sadder for economists, even formerly respectable ones, is that overnight it was none other than Tyler Cowen who, writing in the New York Times, came up with yet another theory to explain the "continuing slowness of economic growth in high-income economies." In his own words: "An additional explanation of slow growth is now receiving attention, however. It is the persistence and expectation of peace."

That's right - blame it on the lack of war!

The world just hasn’t had that much warfare lately, at least not by historical standards. Some of the recent headlines about Iraq or South Sudan make our world sound like a very bloody place, but today’s casualties pale in light of the tens of millions of people killed in the two world wars in the first half of the 20th century. Even the Vietnam War had many more deaths than any recent war involving an affluent country.

Well, that's just unacceptable: surely all the world needs for some serious growth is for war casualties to be in the billions, not in the paltry hundreds of thousands.

Keynesianism 101 continues:

Counterintuitive though it may sound, the greater peacefulness of the world may make the attainment of higher rates of economic growth less urgent and thus less likely. This view does not claim that fighting wars improves economies, as of course the actual conflict brings death and destruction. The claim is also distinct from the Keynesian argument that preparing for war lifts government spending and puts people to work. Rather, the very possibility of war focuses the attention of governments on getting some basic decisions right — whether investing in science or simply liberalizing the economy. Such focus ends up improving a nation’s longer-run prospects.

To be sure, Cowen is quick covers his ass with some quick diplomacy. After all how dare he implicitly suggest that the only reason the US escaped the Great Depression is what some say was its orchestrated entry into World War 2:

It may seem repugnant to find a positive side to war in this regard, but a look at American history suggests we cannot dismiss the idea so easily. Fundamental innovations such as nuclear power, the computer and the modern aircraft were all pushed along by an American government eager to defeat the Axis powers or, later, to win the Cold War. The Internet was initially designed to help this country withstand a nuclear exchange, and Silicon Valley had its origins with military contracting, not today’s entrepreneurial social media start-ups. The Soviet launch of the Sputnik satellite spurred American interest in science and technology, to the benefit of later economic growth.

So what is it about war that makes economic "growth" that much greater. Apparently it has to do with an urgency in spending. As in urgently spending more than the trillions of dollars needed to support the US welfare state now, and spending even more trillions in hopes of, you guessed it, stumbling on the next "Internet" (which apparently wasn't created by Al Gore).

War brings an urgency that governments otherwise fail to summon. For instance, the Manhattan Project took six years to produce a working atomic bomb, starting from virtually nothing, and at its peak consumed 0.4 percent of American economic output. It is hard to imagine a comparably speedy and decisive achievement these days.

What we find surprising is that it took the econofrauds this long to scapegoat that last falsifiable boundary - the lack of war - for the lack of growth. But they are finally stirring:

Ian Morris, a professor of classics and history at Stanford, has revived the hypothesis that war is a significant factor behind economic growth in his recent book, “War! What Is it Good For? Conflict and the Progress of Civilization From Primates to Robots.” Morris considers a wide variety of cases, including the Roman Empire, the European state during its Renaissance rise and the contemporary United States. In each case there is good evidence that the desire to prepare for war spurred technological invention and also brought a higher degree of internal social order.

 

Another new book, Kwasi Kwarteng’s “War and Gold: A 500-Year History of Empires, Adventures, and Debt,” makes a similar argument but focuses on capital markets. Mr. Kwarteng, a Conservative member of British Parliament, argues that the need to finance wars led governments to help develop monetary and financial institutions, enabling the rise of the West. He does worry, however, that today many governments are abusing these institutions and using them to take on too much debt. (Both Mr. Kwarteng and Mr. Morris are extending themes from Azar Gat’s 820-page magnum opus, “War in Human Civilization,” published in 2006.)

 

Yet another investigation of the hypothesis appears in a recent working paper by the economists Chiu Yu Ko, Mark Koyama and Tuan-Hwee Sng. The paper argues that Europe evolved as more politically fragmented than China because China's risk of conquest from its western flank led it toward political centralization for purposes of defense. This centralization was useful at first but eventually held China back. The European countries invested more in technology and modernization, precisely because they were afraid of being taken over by their nearby rivals.

The fun part will be when economists finally do get their suddenly much desired war (just as they did with World War II, and World War I before it, the catalyst for the creation of the Fed of course), just as they got their much demanded trillions in monetary stimulus. Recall that according to Krugman the Fed has failed to stimulate the economy because it simply wasn't enough: apparently having the Fed hold 35% of all 10 Year equivalents, injecting nearly $3 trillion in reserves into the stock market, and creating a credit bubble that makes the 2007 debt bubble pale by comparison was not enough. One needs moar!

And so it will be with war. Because the first war will be blamed for having been too small - it is time for a bigger war. Then an even bigger war. And so on, until the most worthless human beings in existence - economists of course - get their armageddon, resulting in the death of billions. Perhaps only then will the much desired GDP explosion finally arrive?

Luckily for Cowen, he stops from advocating war as the ultimate panacea to a slow growth (at least for now: once the US enters a recession with a nother quarter of negative growth, one can only imagine what lunacy Krugman columns will carry). Instead he frames it as an issue of trade offs: "We can prefer higher rates of economic growth and progress, even while recognizing that recent G.D.P. figures do not adequately measure all of the gains we have been enjoying. In addition to more peace, we also have a cleaner environment (along most but not all dimensions), more leisure time and a higher degree of social tolerance for minorities and formerly persecuted groups. Our more peaceful and — yes — more slacker-oriented world is in fact better than our economic measures acknowledge."

And let's not forget that GDP is nothing but economic bullshit, confirmed when in recent weeks Europe - seemingly tired of waiting for war - arbitrarily decided to add the "benefits" of prostitution and narcotics. And there you have all the meaningless growth you can dream of. If only on paper. Because hundreds of million of people in the developed world, without a job, out of the labor force, can only be placated with dreams of "hope and change" for so long. And certainly not once they get hungry, or realize that the biggest lie of all in the Bismarckian welfare state - guaranteed welfare - is long broke.

Cowen's conclusion:

Living in a largely peaceful world with 2 percent G.D.P. growth has some big advantages that you don’t get with 4 percent growth and many more war deaths. Economic stasis may not feel very impressive, but it’s something our ancestors never quite managed to pull off. The real questions are whether we can do any better, and whether the recent prevalence of peace is a mere temporary bubble just waiting to be burst.

That's great. Now all we need is some economist and/or central-planner who actually gets top billing and determines policy to have a different conclusion, and decide that 4% growth is actually worth m(b)illions of dead people.

Judging by recent events in Ukraine and the middle-east that announcement may be just around the corner.

 

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Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:06 | 4857147 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I think the NY TImes "wish" along with the desire of the banksters to thin the heard is about to be cured on many fronts. The latest:

 

06.14 1600 ET – New Video Purports to Show ISIL (ISIS) Terrorists Entering Baghdad
Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:10 | 4857157 svayambhu108
svayambhu108's picture

Fuck their economy

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:13 | 4857163 max2205
max2205's picture

Peace train keeps rolling....come on peace train.

 

Libs.  First they hate war. Then they ignore war.  Then they love war.

 

 

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.........\.................'...../ 

..........''...\.......... _.·´ 

............\..............( 

..............\.............\...

 

 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:17 | 4857180 graneros
graneros's picture

I suggest we all top off our tanks and fill all fuel containers. Just sayin'.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:24 | 4857192 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Forget the war. Just randomly blow things up then fix them. That is exactly the same isn't it?

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:33 | 4857206 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

NEW YORK TIMES BECAME BRAIN-DEAD SEVERAL YEARS AGO.  It's nothing more than one of the U.S. Govt political rags.

That being said, WHY GOLD'S BASE PRICE SHOULD BE NORTH OF $2,000

http://srsroccoreport.com/why-golds-base-price-should-be-north-of-2000/why-golds-base-price-should-be-north-of-2000/

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:39 | 4857212 svayambhu108
svayambhu108's picture

They blow things up then fix them, I think the people are bodering them.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:51 | 4857234 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

GOD have mercy on the Congressman or Senator who votes to draft my son into WWIII.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:35 | 4857317 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Against the cost of massive destruction and waste of war is the benefit of hastening the realization of applications and inventions that were already under development.

Very little gain for very great costs.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:42 | 4857342 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Poor MIC, not moving enough shrapnel to keep things interesting.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:24 | 4857517 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Who would have foreseen that printing a bunch of pieces of paper and IOU's wasn't all there was to jump-starting the economy?

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:14 | 4857593 economics9698
economics9698's picture

The next war we draft all the tribe member kids between 17-35 and put them on the front line. 

 

Result, no more war.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:48 | 4857668 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

When your economy doesnt grow without wars you are oficially an 'EMPIRE'

We need a new economical index, like Kinetic Strikes on Children that will be the best economic indicator for this nation.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 22:01 | 4857809 Chief Wonder Bread
Chief Wonder Bread's picture

OR, the War Party could just stage an EMP event.

Nobody would be any the wiser; it would be easy to subsequently seize control of most communications channels.

 

The referenced article by Tyler Cowen appears to be the first salvo in a propaganda campaign to sway public sentiment into support for the next phase of the Iraq War.

This link to a piece by Justin Raimondo explains why.

 

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-war-party-never-leans-gulf-war...

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 23:18 | 4857919 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
Nancy Pelosi Keeps Title as Wealthiest U.S. House Leader

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-14/nancy-pelosi-keeps-title-as-wea...

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 02:38 | 4858057 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

War works because you take all the crybabies that don't have a job and send them off to die in a foreign country...

^.^

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 04:17 | 4858100 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Posted Elsewhere:

"

1) The taxes are not worth the value being returned.

I don't have a problem paying taxes, so long as they go to something worthwhile. I will end up paying around 33% - an entire 1/3rd of my income - in my 2013 tax return. Yes, I am getting a refund, but when I am paying tens of thousands of dollars and not getting the services I should receive for that investment in my country, celebrating the return of a few hundred dollars seems absurd.

Where is my benefit from my government for all of this? Do I have free healthcare? No. Do I have a world class education for my child? No. Do I have any kind of guaranteed income should I lose my job? No.

No, instead, I have a country which is the only one in the world to tax its overseas citizens. A country that bails out banks who prey on those who just want a home to raise a family when they become insolvent - but when it happens to me, and I short sell my home, the IRS is there, ready to tax me on "phantom income" - forgiven debt.

I have a country that spends billions on fighting wars for political gain, but does nothing when there actually is evidence of WMD use against others. A country that hemorrhages so much money on military spending, it must turn around and take loans against my child's future - her income - in order to continue to pay for programs we don't need.

2) I'm tired of people being surprised that I'm American because I have manners, common courtesy, and the ability to see the other side of issues.

Seriously, the number of people I meet who think Americans are rascal-riding land whales (like in the movie Wall-E) with handle-bar mounted machine guns, a sack of Big Macs in the front basket, a clinical addiction to NASCAR, and a passion for the modern day artist that is Jerry Springer - it's just too much. I've been introducing myself as Canadian because apparently I'm so polite, that's where they mostly assume I'm from.

3) The fact that none of this is ever going to change, regardless of what party is in charge, and the fact that the American government continues to shred the constitution a little more each year, until it doesn't even matter anymore.

You may not think of America as a police state, but it is. Nobody's going to come grab you in the middle of the night, unless you're reported as a terrorist of some kind. At that point, just forget about "police work" and get ready for the SWAT team.

Nobody is going to take your children way from you, unless Child Protective Services is called, and someone decides - for whatever reason - that it's "in the child's best interest" to be removed.

Nobody is ever going to interfere with your access to medicine, unless you're trying to get something that isn't ridiculously expensive from another country; in that case, get ready for being charged as a drug trafficker.

Nobody is going to freeze your bank accounts, passport, and other means of movement, unless the IRS believes you haven't given them enough money. Suddenly you have debt to prove isn't there, and it will all get "sorted out" at the blistering fast speed of government efficiency. Or you could just pay the amount they say and it all ends quickly.

4) The fact that the future for my child in the US is so dark.

All this debt, and it's going to fall on her and her children. She's broke, and she doesn't even know it yet. Disgusting.

Well, I count myself fortunate that I don't own a home in the US - it affords me the ability to even consider leaving it all behind. There's so much propaganda about how wonderful America is but, when you look at it without those rosy lenses on, what you really see is horrifying.

"

 

 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 10:02 | 4858290 SMG
SMG's picture

Start identifying the Luciferian Oligarchs and fighting them now,  or we'll be too busy fighting for survival if they get away with WWIII.

APC

"Let's Have A War"

There's so many of us,
So many of us,
So many, there's so many, there's so many

Let's have a war,
So you can go and die,
Let's have a war,
We could all use the money,
Let's have a war,
We need the space,
Let's have a war,
Clean out this place

It already started in the city,
Suburbia will be just as easy

Let's have a war,
Jack up the Dow Jones,
Let's have a war,
It can start in New Jersey,
Let's have a war,
Blame it on the middle-class,
Let's have a war,
We're like rats in a cage

It already started in the city,
Suburbia will be just as easy

Let's have a war,
Sell the rights to the networks,
Let's have a war,
Let our wallets get fat like last time,
Let's have a war,
Give guns to the queers,
Let's have a war,
The enemy's within

It already started in the city,
Suburbia will be just as easy
Sun, 06/15/2014 - 19:32 | 4859485 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

All I read in that post was "gimmy gimmy gimmy moar free stuff"...

 

Gimmy free healthcare, gimmy free education, hell, gimmy free prostitutes... AFTER the free healthcare kicks in of course...

 

>_>

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 04:29 | 4860507 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Maritimine Body County Index: How many kids in black glad bags returning home on freighters indicates the momentum and direction of economic activity according to the NYT. 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 09:41 | 4858262 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

economics9698      The next war we draft all the tribe member kids between 17-35 and put them on the front line. 

 Result, no more war.

---

I wonder why people say things like this. Yes, it gets a great emotional response. It's like saying cancer is bad. You bet.

But election after election, the majority of incumbents are voted in. And are their kids going to the front line? No.

 

So rah rah, I cheer you on for your wishful thinking. Your realism leaves lots to be desired. How about planning and executing a life based on what is real, not what is wishful just to be emotionally correct and get gratification for it. Yea, I'm a downer and deserve the down votes. But I say it like it is.

And BTW, where are all the leftist talking about how the right wing are the war mongerers (not directed at economics9698)?

My point: It's not about left or right. Whomever is in power wants to keep power.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 10:03 | 4858293 darkpool2
darkpool2's picture

And the rest stay home and.........subvert.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:32 | 4857529 Greyhat
Greyhat's picture

They are playing on that trumpet at least since Broders "Look back at FDR and the Great Depression. What finally resolved that economic crisis? World War II" war mongering in 2010. :)

This time shrink wrapped as an economic professors witzdom. They wanted seven countries in five years. Since 9/13.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/jinsa-this-goes-beyond-bin-laden...

 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:45 | 4857550 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"They have no plan...and their ideas are madness!"

Of course...they were not prepared for GrosAdmiral Raeder either.

"He was surprised after his capture in Berlin by the Russians that he wasn't sentenced to death at Nuremberg but mere life in Prison."

Due to ill health he was released and lived well into his 90's.

The Soviets were very interested in his "U Boats" after the War.

Unfortunately all the good...indeed GREAT chemists...were Americans.

"Building a bomb" and "building an engine" are two very different things.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:46 | 4857664 Greyhat
Greyhat's picture

You are right, it's all about the chemistry of great steel. U-Boats, Towers, aircraft carriers...

http://money.cnn.com/2001/10/15/companies/bethsteel/

Bethlehem Steel lost its bid to provide the steel for the WTC. But even 9/11 didn't save them in Oct. 2001.

But the Joint Strike Fighter and CVX aircraft carrier programs survived the PNAC cancellation plans.

 

And of cause it's about money to, old money, new money. And about doing gods work. And so on.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:43 | 4857343 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Tyler Cowen, proudly sponsored by the Koch brothers.

Cowen is director of the Mercatus Center. Main sponsors are no others than the Koch brothers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercatus_Center

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koch_Brothers_Exposed

 

 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:23 | 4857516 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

Just did some due diligence, and yup, there they are.

it's the "Give War a Chance" a crowd. Remember the days when that was the title of a HUMOR book.

http://www.amazon.com/Give-War-Chance-Eyewitness-Alcohol-Free/dp/0802140319/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1402788145&sr=8-1&keywords=give+war+a+chance

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 00:44 | 4858002 illyia
illyia's picture

I believe that this was the conclusion drawn by the "Report from Iron Mountain" - and pardon my vagueness, it's been a while.

Basically, from what I recall, war is necessary for maintaining the cohesion of the nation. Without it, ie., if peace were to break out, there would be little to hold the peoples together as a unit (recall the unity produced from 911). The conclusion was that, if people were allowed too much leisure without a pressing war to unify them, they will not be herdable - from the nationalist viewpoint.

Furthermore, this was the conclusion of non-aligned members appointed to foresee outcomes without reservation (no pun intended) during the Kennedy administration.

Of course, this whole thing was denied and was condemned as a stupid prank. Anyone who believes this stuff to be true is just a conspiracy theorist and should be disregarded (or removed)....

;o)

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:09 | 4859095 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

For your refreshment, here is the movie made regarding 'The Report From Iron Mountain'.

It is 2 hours 21 minutes long.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY2VQtGgAJA

It's about a lot more than war, though. There has to be some unifying enemy, either real or imagined, artificially created or not, that will keep the masses enslaved and beholden to the 'Masters of the Universe' (couldn't help using the Jules Verne reference. Have you ever read his writings?).

They had REAL issues after the Soviet Union collapsed. Without an enemy to fight, everything was done to create another one. The WTC bombing in '93, the startup of comprehensive stratospheric geoengineering to try the 'climate change' thing, the shootdown of the Pan Am over Lockerbie, the various false flags like Waco, Ruby Ridge and OKC, and so many other incidents; none of them had enough cohesiveness behind them to stir the pot sufficiently. What about the PNAC, calling for another 'Pearl harbor'? GREAT IDEA! Let's try THAT one, they said...

"Let us not entertain wild conspiracy theories regarding the attacks of 9/11." ('My Pet Goat')

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 23:39 | 4867886 Seeing Red
Seeing Red's picture

I've read some of the "Report from Iron Mountain" ... and I after a very brief skimming of that video, I do not see any relationship whatsoever.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 09:49 | 4858274 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

cpnscarlet    Just did some due diligence, and yup, there they are.

----

then do some more due diligence. The Koch brothers donated to Mercatus in support of less regulation from Washington. The overwhelming support for other activities comes from the left.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:59 | 4857569 soontobeblocked
soontobeblocked's picture

"GOD have mercy on the Congressman or Senator who votes to draft my son into WWIII.

May I suggest using their own pre-emptive war doctrine, and that you take a few* of them out now?

I'll cheerfully vote "not guilty" at your trial.

The logic is there, and yours wouldn't be a big freaking lie as theors have been.  We all know where this ends for us; might as well start now.

* "few" is left to your own judgement.  1, 2, 500, I'm ok with your judgement

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:18 | 4857600 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Everyone is a bad ass until it's time to throw down.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:02 | 4857253 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i guess being at war for 214 years of this countrys 232 yr history just aint enough....and what the fuck have we been doing for the last 12 yrs and counting....send these cocksuckers and their wives kids and dogs into iraq to help us out...

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 05:15 | 4858125 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Yes, and all wiped away in one week by 7000-10000 rebels! Seriously! It's hard to admit but Iraq would've been better off with Saddam still in power. We created a vacuum of power and now these brainwashed, well armed, well funded rebels have filled it. I cannot believe we've spent a trillion FRNs and countless lives and wounded souls only to have it erased by a few barbarians.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 09:58 | 4858287 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

smlbizman    i guess being at war for 214 years of this countrys 232 yr history just aint enough....and what the fuck have we been doing for the last 12 yrs and counting....send these cocksuckers and their wives kids and dogs into iraq to help us out...

----

America has not been in a real war for decades. They were conflicts. And before you blow your top let me explain. Leftist redefined war to conflict to soften the tone, the sound of it and make it more acceptable. Everyone gets a trophy.

How long are you gonna say, "send these cocksuckers and their wives kids and dogs into iraq to help us out..." before you realize that the odds are more that you or your kids will be sent over there? It's called being realistic, not wishful.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:42 | 4857216 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

*cough**expensiveoil**cough*cough*

It's not really that hard to understand people at the NYTimes.  The economy is a freakin' abstraction.  High net energy is the real deal.  Surplus energy allows all organisms to expand at a fast rate.

Humans are organisms.   The economy is our fancy way of counting our growth.  No more easy oil = no more easy growth.

What the interminably stupid Cohen at the NYT has missed, then, is the idea that prior wars were all conducted during times of expanding net energy.  the next one will be conducted during a time of contracting net energy.  

Thus, the next war is likely to only be destructive, not stimulative.  Break it and it's gone.  No more rebuilding the great works of the past, just cheap facsimilies if we can even be bothered to clear the rubble.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:13 | 4857269 deflator
deflator's picture

 Maybe they are construeing a great increase in deaths as a decrease in demand restoring the past 150 years of excess energy and abundance of growth from its excess. Here I go again, getting drunk and posting stupid shit on ZH.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 06:33 | 4858151 what's that smell
what's that smell's picture

fat finger, cold and snow in winter, too much peace, rogue trader, black swan, blah blah blah.

the economic cycle she goes up and down, up and down, up and down.

the economic cycle she goes up and down you silly blogging clowns.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 18:00 | 4857370 rbg81
rbg81's picture

The other thing is nukes.  Luckily, the last big "stimulative" war (WWII) only saw nukes introduced in the final act--and only our side possessed them.  Now lots of actors have nukes, so the destructive potential of war is much greater.  So the next BIG WAR is likely to be nuclear, which would be an absolute disaster for everyone.

Ultimately, what makes BIG WAR stimulative, is the fact that it drastically alters the competitve landscape.  At the end of WWII, America was the only country whose industrial might been enhanced (vs. degraded) and had not suffered signficant manpower losses.  In contrast, German and Japanese factories were almost totally decimated.  As a result, those countries had much greater rates of economic growth over the next 30-40 years than even America.  It was the fact that they had to rebuild their industries from scratch that helped make them more competitive.  In contrast, America got the Rust Belt.

My two cents:  the only way to get the levels of growth of yesteryear is to start colonizing other planets.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 01:25 | 4858027 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I agree with that last sentence so emphatically. 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 05:18 | 4858127 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Why do you think Bush II was so big on going to Mars! :)

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 05:58 | 4858135 August
August's picture

I up-voted you, but please look up "decimated" when you get a chance.

_ The Dictionary Police

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 07:54 | 4858183 rbg81
rbg81's picture

I was referring to the contemporary meaning, not the Roman meaning (e.g., kill every 10th).  Geeze.....

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:35 | 4859106 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

When did the meaning of 'decimate' change? I must have missed that one. I MUST go back and read Alinsky. HE can tell me.

It depends on what the definition of 'IS' is.

Wiped out, made impotent, destroyed, eradicated, annialated, flattened, subsumed, made of no effect, wiped off the face of the map... Is THAT what you meant?

Yeah, the term 'decimate' has been rendered impotentent as of late (that was the whole idea behind the Tribe taking control of education in the first place).

Now, you two kiss and make up, will you? There are more important things to consider.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 12:37 | 4858665 rbg81
rbg81's picture

I am convinced that nukes DO act as a deterrent against "casual" war.  Of course, maybe that's why Obama really wants to go to zero nukes?  The resulting economic growth from all the resulting wars would be stupendous!

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 18:50 | 4857450 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Protocols of Elders of Zion states all nation states to be destroyed. So much for the rebuilding of Iraq, Libya, you name it. Progress!

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 00:12 | 4857980 Riprake
Riprake's picture

Yeah, yeah. That Czarist anti-Semitic propaganda crap isn't even fit to use for toilet paper. Here's my response to all you farm-animal-humping pole-smoking brain-dead goose-steppers who fill your empty craniums with blatant forgeries like that:

............../´¯/) 

............,/¯../ 

.........../..../ 

...../´¯/'...'/´¯¯`·¸ 

../'/.../..../......./¨¯\ 

('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...') 

.\.................'...../ 

..''...\.......... _.·´ 

....\..............( 

......\.............\...

Same goes for the Turner Diaries, Mein Kampf, and all the other racist garbage you goat-blowing Stormfronter trolls believe in.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 06:35 | 4858153 what's that smell
what's that smell's picture

i am crushed!

the finger penis of perfect enlightenment and right thinking.

behold!

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:24 | 4859128 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

How's the weather in Haifa? Have you fucked any three-year-olds lately? Ashkenazim, or Kazarim?

AH, the 'religion of peace'. A peace of this, a peace of that...

Kicked out of every nation in Eastern and Western Europe, and gee, I wonder WHY.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 08:50 | 4858223 red_pill
red_pill's picture

1000 you really understand what's going on!

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 08:52 | 4858226 red_pill
red_pill's picture

+ 1000 you really understand what's going on!

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:43 | 4857225 Reaper
Reaper's picture

The Times is the government's mouthpiece. The Times is preparing the sheeple to see the war to begin under Obama as economically beneficial with all the windows and more to be destroyed. Since Krugman's aliens haven't arrived, Obama will start a war to fix the the economy.

How many will die for the glorious economic recovery created by the just war of the Nobel Prince of Peace. When will we ever learn?

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:51 | 4857355 TheSecondLaw
TheSecondLaw's picture

Forget the war. Just randomly blow things up then fix them.

Isn't that what the US has been doing around the globe for decades?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 03:13 | 4858079 Euro Monster
Euro Monster's picture

That's what they did in The Lego Movie. Everything is awesome! :D

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 09:59 | 4858288 strangewalk
strangewalk's picture

Blowing things up and fixing is not the same as real war, it doesn't have an air of urgent emergency, there is no chance at heroism, survival of the motherland is not at stake, it's just not as fun or exicting and finally, the  girls go for real uniforms, not utility overalls. 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 19:33 | 4859491 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

As long as those tanks are "hybrids"...

 

Can't pollute da planet ya know...

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:32 | 4857194 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

I don't take swipes at anyone who endured billy clubs or beanbag rounds/dowls for a good cause. By the way- their sacrifice didn't work. 

The USS George HW Bush is moving into the gulf.  Of course it is.  This will make one epic epic.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:53 | 4857238 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

“I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”
? Smedley D. Butler, War is a Racket: The Antiwar Classic by America's Most Decorated Soldier

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:24 | 4857295 DLux
DLux's picture

He stopped an attempted military coup as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/history/document/document_20070723.shtml

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:35 | 4857318 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

The coup was aimed at toppling President Franklin D Roosevelt with the help of half-a-million war veterans. The plotters, who were alleged to involve some of the most famous families in America, (owners of Heinz, Birds Eye, Goodtea, Maxwell Hse & George Bush’s Grandfather, Prescott) believed that their country should adopt the policies of Hitler and Mussolini to beat the great depression.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:59 | 4857570 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

And, to complete the bitter irony, FDR *did* adopt many of the policies of Mussolini and they clearly did NOT work. Politics is an even worse racket.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:24 | 4857614 economics9698
economics9698's picture

FDR and don't leave out the scum at the Fed.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:53 | 4857365 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Gummint - ctrl-alt-del

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:29 | 4857527 Malachi Constant
Malachi Constant's picture

Del is enough.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:42 | 4857224 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

WE all know its the weather....the idiot box told me so....

 

RIPS

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 18:12 | 4857382 rbg81
rbg81's picture

Our leaders these daze seem to think that economic growth comes from importing tons of unskilled immigrants.  Especially favored are those who help balloon the Welfare state and are hostile to the prevailing culture.  

The corporate world looks at each consumer as a machine that BUYS SHIT -- and he more SHIT they BUY, the more profit the corporation makes.  They have become so shortsighted, that they no longer care if the SHIT gets purchased by employed members of the middle class or parasitic clients of the welfare state.  To them, a $ is a $ regardless of how they come by it.  In that way, welfare given to people to live on ultimately becomes corporate welfare.

No doubt they communicate this idea to the Politicians, which causes them to double down on this strategy.  So, we need to mint more people, citizens or not, debt be damned.

What could go wrong?

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:20 | 4857604 soontobeblocked
soontobeblocked's picture

"Our leaders these daze seem to think that economic growth comes from importing tons of unskilled immigrants"

NONSENSE.  Our leaders want YOU to think that.  Their paymasters at Satan's Synagogue are just doing more divide and conquer work. 

They keep pissing on you and their schools and MSM tell you that its raining.  You know differently but the collective "you" are no match for cognitive dissonance, Stockholm Syndrome, re-education, and circus distractions.

http://rense.com/  Their current splash screen from DDees is spot on.

 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 10:22 | 4857677 rbg81
rbg81's picture

Huh?  Pretty sure they want us to believe the OPPOSITE of what I said.

They want us to believe that this country will be a land of milk and honey if only we flood it with hordes from the Third World.  Sorry, but I'm not drinking that Kool-aid.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 18:24 | 4857409 kurt
kurt's picture

I agree with your sentiment. I'd say I'm liberal as it shares a root word with Liberty and I DON'T want this fucking war mongering! I shit in the decapitated neck hole of the New York Times.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:16 | 4857177 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

Humans are a means, but never the end.  Subjugated to growth.  history.  The will of god. 

A stranger in our own house.

Yeah.  Fuck it.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:22 | 4857189 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Man, in the aspiration of being God, does wack shit.

The end.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 21:45 | 4857767 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

Exactly why at the age of late 30s my wife and I sorta-maybe-don't want kids.

You know that blood giving is a great industry. No thank you. Leave it to the bastards in trailer parks who listen to Chris Brown - who's parent grew up listening to Eminem.

 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:11 | 4857160 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

The destruction of capital does not create real wealth.

Financing the destruction of capital with debt does not create real wealth.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:23 | 4857191 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

And this is news to the New York Times?

Bwhahahahahahahahahaha.

I've already given up on the capacity for abstract thought with these clowns.

Just waiting on the JWT headline HITLER'S FURY!!!! and see how many pack their bags and hit the "Forward Soviet!" Button.

Republicrats Unite!

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:35 | 4857208 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

The destruction of capital may not create real wealth, but it will make a few really wealthy.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:56 | 4857563 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I down arrowed myself due to "surprising neutrality on the disabledvet issue."

My meeting with the "Fuhrer" went as expected of course.

He charged my entire Navy with "traitorism"! I didn't know to say actually. "I'm an Admiral and they're just a bunch of phucking fly boys"?

Any who he didn't order my execution...I was the highest ranking person in the Reich...so I left "with orders to scuttle my Fleet."

I found the order...well, irrational actually. My Fleet was still acting under orders and certainly was not in a State of Mutiny...so I offered my resignation (which was accepted) flew to Berlin to "see how the War Effort was going."

The SS did finally get my finest Admiral.

That wouldn't be Donetz who was a complete idiot.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:21 | 4857186 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

See, I don't think that would be enough.  We already fought a war in Iraq once and that didn't do the trick.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:58 | 4857246 Freddie
Freddie's picture

The liberals and Democrats newspaper.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:00 | 4857249 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

"Lack Of Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth"

Sure, the same way the "lack of rape may be hurting population growth"

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 03:08 | 4858074 mc225
mc225's picture

'liberalizing the economy'... what kind of paint thinner do these people huff?

 

 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:47 | 4857352 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

"War is peace. Peace is war."

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:59 | 4857572 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Give me the Jihad and I'll give you the news!"

Let's start moving ink bitchez!

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:45 | 4857548 Rehyponzicated
Rehyponzicated's picture

Is Cowen a Jewish name?

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:24 | 4857616 soontobeblocked
soontobeblocked's picture

probably just a cohencidence ;)

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:06 | 4857580 soontobeblocked
soontobeblocked's picture

"An additional explanation of slow growth is now receiving attention, however. It is the persistence and expectation of peace."

Alex, I'll take "More Obvious Answers" for $2000 and say, "What is, spending trillions on armaments that we neither need nor use."

If we're a few trillion short, maybe ask the Rabbi Dov Zakheim wtf he did with the trillions that went missing from the Pentagram during his watch as comptroller.  You'll need to go to the Zio-Dual citizen's true country ISR to ask him.  Meanwhile none of us will hold our breaths waiting.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 23:03 | 4857897 Lionhearted
Lionhearted's picture

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." Mike Tyson.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 11:09 | 4858438 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

NY Times is upset because their advertising revenue is headed down. The paper needs a good injection of capital to grow their business model. War = capital spending so let the bombs fly. What is good for the NYT is good for America.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:06 | 4857148 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Rothschilds: "At a time of our choosing"

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:09 | 4857154 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Rothschilds: "At a time of our choosing"

Oh how true that quote is. Too few realize the evil, vile history of these souls....

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:14 | 4857167 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Amazing how supervillians really do exist huh.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:28 | 4857195 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Men must be molded...BAKED if you will...

IN THE BLAZING SUN OF BATTLE!!!!!"

I mean the sheer imbecility of it all defies imagination.
Hitler's Generals had put"Operation Overthrow" into effect in 1939!
And there in lies the mystery indeed.

However...I have been reading up on it.

Just in case.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:41 | 4857219 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

What does "at a time of our choosing" refer to?

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:09 | 4857583 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Hmmm. Well...always grateful for the negativity..and a fellow Commentarian. "The War is lost" of course...but my understanding of "time and place of our choosing" refers to "command and control."

That when the order is given it is understood as such ("Acthung baby!") and then obeyed. "Forward!." No one "going Rogue." No..."mavericks."

This must be done with a complete understanding of the sacrifices to be made as well.

"That's why Lincoln sits where (and how) he does."

Sure..."he was nothing more than the Town Crier." But the number of dead...with such a small population.

Everyone was known to one another back then. "They were neighbors." Such a slaughter could not go unanswered though Victory was certain.

Only through prayer and God could such things even be explained.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:29 | 4857199 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Yep, and super heroes don't.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:33 | 4857634 soontobeblocked
soontobeblocked's picture

I'd like to believe that they will arise eventually when the circumstances dictate it. 

Then again, I find myself asking, "WTF are they waiting for?"

Meanwhile, stop the presses, one of the Kardashians did something of great import.

The mass psychologists know that within a divided people the individual is reluctant to stand out. 

Revolution: some assembly required.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:23 | 4857214 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

The NYT I am at the point where I hate anything in that soulless City

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:03 | 4857475 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Even Sienfeld reruns?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 03:11 | 4858076 mc225
mc225's picture

how about that new show, louie?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 06:10 | 4858140 August
August's picture

But how we would all weep if the Rooskies, or the ChiComs, or the Norks, or the Muzzies took the place out.

/s

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:09 | 4857263 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

@ johngaltfla,

Anyone who believes that all this upheaval in the Middle East transpired spontaneously is nieve.

Just "Co incidence" all this occurred at the close of Bilderburg. Not only is the Criminal UNITES STARES, CORP. INC., CIA / State Dept. arming, funding & training AL CIA duh terror organizations via Libia, Syria, Turkey, NATO & Saudi Arabia.

But we're now actually fighting the exact same AL CAI duh terror organizations the Criminal UNITED STATES, CORP. INC. destabilized Iraq, Lybia & Syria to begin with.

So, we 're in bed & aligned with known Nazi Fascist in the Ukraine & Islamic AL CIA duh terror organizations in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Lybia, Syria but not Iraq.

What a Mind Fuck!

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:29 | 4857309 ronron
ronron's picture

look son. to win you have to be on both sides.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 06:51 | 4858155 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

That is what hedging your wagers is all about. So you make the profit from the spread.

 

So it does not matter whom emerges victorious as the combatants, the victor and the victim, both lose and you win?

 

That just reads a bit psychopathic and right out of the playbook for an oligarch.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:07 | 4857150 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Oh Dear

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:34 | 4857207 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

GDP= greatly depleted population.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:08 | 4857152 css1971
css1971's picture

Yup here it comes. The economic argument for war. Almost exactly 1 century after the last time they went to war for economic reasons.

 

War always and everywhere is the people vs their own leaders. You don't want war? You got to start hanging them from lamposts. It's a habit we've fallen out of.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:31 | 4857159 blindman
blindman's picture

the paper of record has standards and priorities
and as everyone knows they stand on principles.
.
now we know what they are.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 20:35 | 4857638 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

"Those are my principles, and if you don't like them, well, I have others."

G.Marx

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 21:48 | 4857778 blindman
blindman's picture

principles are exported to the financial backers.
the only one the media obeys is the principle of
adherence to the system f "money". our god.
our funny g od ,

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:13 | 4857164 gimli
gimli's picture

If it's in the NY Times, then by all means, let's get to it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k26hmRbDQFw

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:33 | 4857205 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Jihadis.

Everywhere.

"So much history that's total bullshit. So little time."

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:16 | 4857168 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Well tell the editors of the NYT to grab their guns and form a battalion. They certainly have plenty of choices to deploy. Right behind you mates.

Why anyone still subscribes to that phony rag is beyond me.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:18 | 4857182 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

"The object of war is not to die for your country, but to make another bastard die for his."  --Patton

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:02 | 4857256 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Patton used tanks against The Bonus Army on orders from MacArthur and the banksters.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonus_Army

The only supporter was General Smedley Butler.   Ike, MacArthur, Mitcheel, Patton were scum.  Along with Hoover and FDR. 

Joe Angelo, a decorated hero from the war who saved Patton's life, approached him the day after to sway him. Rather than accept and listen to the man whom he had decorated himself for his bravery under fire, Patton coldly rejected him and stated "I do not know this man. Take him away and under no circumstances permit him to return." This episode was said to represent the proverbial essence of the Bonus Army, each man the face of each side; Angelo the dejected loyal soldier, Patton the unmoved government instrument unconcerned with past duties.[20]

Patton would have been at Waco running the tanks.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:55 | 4857297 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

NYT: the official State propaganda organ for the ever-so-progressive neo-con chicken-hawks and aspiring war economists.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 18:57 | 4857459 machineh
machineh's picture

Saddam's WMDs: we are still searching for them! 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:36 | 4857319 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

I would not wipe my ass with the New York Times.

 

But I might wipe dog shit from the floor of a kennel.

 

 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:27 | 4857522 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Krugman would spend a million on a beard trim if his sorry ass could afford it, and then he'd claim he was doing his part to help the economy.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 06:14 | 4858143 August
August's picture

In Seattle, people subscibe to the NYT in order to appear sophisticated.

Tells you a lot about Seattle.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:15 | 4857169 Five8Charlie
Five8Charlie's picture

"The Internet was initially designed to help this country withstand a nuclear exchange..."

Let's hope NYC is the first part of the exchange. "a nuclear exchange" - talking about it like two kids trading marbles.  Glad he eventually talks himself into war being a bad idea. Do idiots like this actually think the next World War won't be fought - at least in part - on U.S. soil?

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:17 | 4857178 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

The job market for decontamination would keep generations busy.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:34 | 4857204 The man with po...
The man with pointy horns's picture

You wouldn't even need to nuke the US, twenty or so well placed upper atmosphere nuclear detonations will be enough to knock out the entire electrical grid and every civilian electrical appliance. No internet, no communication, no electricity, no cell phones, no refrigeration, no working vehicles, no air conditioning, no working bank accounts or money transfers. Within days people will be eating each other.

End of the US.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:08 | 4857264 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Wouldn't take 20 my frined. 2 at a high enough altitude and strong enough, with the right material as a casing, and it's lights out for the whole country. Parts of Mexico and Canada as well. 

 

I believe, in the book "ONE SECOND AFTER", only one was used, detonated over Kansas. Wiped out the grid nationwide. Book was written by a man who knows EMP.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:46 | 4857347 The man with po...
The man with pointy horns's picture

I didn't realise it took so few.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:38 | 4857327 Uskatex
Uskatex's picture

Within a couple of days, tens of nuclear centrals would go "a la Fukushima", but this time with no rescue squads. 

Within a couple of years, end of whole Mankind.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:15 | 4857172 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

I want  to see all the pork included in any new war funding.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:15 | 4857173 deflator
deflator's picture

 I think they are bluffing, they already claim a majority of available resources. If they start a major war then they will control all available resources leaving nothing for the homefront. Chaos is the enemy of command and control.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:16 | 4857176 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

Seriously?  Cowen is either trolling or a source of pure stupidity so rich it could power the planet for decades.  Countries that prepare for war move tend to move toward socialism, not market liberalization, and oh yeah the US has been involved in three or four wars in the past decade, while the 90s economic boom had basically no wars.

Not to mention that the expectation of war leads people to not invest in the future because (1) they're more likely to die, (2) there are likely going to be fewer things to buy during the war, and (3) whatever the investment earns is more likely to be taken from them by force.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:25 | 4857298 rainingFrogs
rainingFrogs's picture

"... and oh yeah the US has been involved in three or four wars in the past decade"

If the direct costs of US misadventure in the middle east since 2000 exceeds $3 trillion [1], and QE since 2008 > $5 trillion [2], add a couple trllion for the war on terror and the war on drugs = $10 trillion.  That's a mountain of cash.  How can Tyler Cowen suggest that a "real war" would inject any more cash into the economy?   Unless of course the $10 trillion did not find its way into the real economy, which clearly it did not.

Perhaps as someone suggested, the NYT is priming for another misadventure, perhaps in ... Syria?  nah ... umm ... Ukraine?  nah ... Iran??  nah ....  Iraq?  bingo.  Belfast Telegraph is reporting the Saudi's set this up.  I wonder ...


[1] from Wikipedia:

The costs of the 2003-2010 Iraq War are often contested, as academics and critics have unearthed many hidden costs not represented in official estimates. The most recent major report on these costs come from Brown University in the form of the Costs of War project,which said the total for wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan is at least $3.2-4 trillion. The report disavowed previous estimates of the Iraq War's cost as being under $1 trillion, saying the Department of Defense's direct spending on Iraq totaled at least $757.8 billion, but also highlighting the complementary costs at home, such as interest paid on the funds borrowed to finance the wars and a potential nearly $1 trillion in extra spending to care for veterans returning from combat through 2050. An update in 2013 topped this at US$6 trillion.

[2] $85B x 5 years x 12 months = $5.1 trllion

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:17 | 4857179 orez65
orez65's picture

"none other than Tyler Cowen ... It is the persistence and expectation of peace."

Tyler Cowen should experience first hand what he is advocating:

Send him to Iraq to fight the ISIS.


Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:19 | 4857183 MountainsRoam
MountainsRoam's picture

The war the United States Federal Government is about to wage on its people, will make Ukraine bombing its civilians look very tame and peaceful..

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 17:15 | 4857274 Freddie
Freddie's picture

The United States has over 14 million licensed hunters.  I bet most have .308 scoped rifles or a similiar caliber.

The link to the Fed web site with the 2013 counts is down.  A load of NE and Rust Belt plus midwest states are over 500,000 per state including NY. PA is almost 1 million.

http://www.petersenshunting.com/2012/08/16/number-of-hunters-in-us-rises...

In 2013, 13.7 million people went hunting.

I would say that is the biggest army in the world and most have scoped rifles that are dialed in for 300 + yards. 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 19:49 | 4857557 flyingcaveman
flyingcaveman's picture

That doesn't matter if none of them are aware of whats going on.  Its not like the us gov is going to declare war.  SWAT team will just show up one night on a wrong adress raid and just shoot you because they are already there.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 03:13 | 4858081 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

I would say that MANY of the hunters know whats going on - being gun owners/hunters they are accutely watching how local, state, and federal laws affect them.

I volunteer as a Range Safety Officer once a month at my local rifle range and talk to 30-some shooters every month. From enlisteds, to retireds, to hunters and those just honing self defence skills, those that come to the range are well attuned to "whats going on".

And that says a lot, coming from SoCal

So I'd guess percentages are higher in "fly over country", in the South, and where a Country Boy Can Survive.

Don't matter that the .gov is or isn't going to declare war - buying 2billion rounds is warning enough.

Oath Keepers is trying to save 'their' lives by warning, do NOT try that Katrina bull shit again - ignoring your oath by attempting to take our right to protect ourselves will end badly for both sides.

http://www.oathkeepers.org

http://www.299days.com

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:22 | 4857188 Saratoga
Saratoga's picture

This is why 3 people read that paper.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:32 | 4857203 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

No way in Hell that many people read it.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:31 | 4857200 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So breaking windows is now breaking skulls?

Genius.  "Reduce the surplus population" and all that.

"Banks not tanks" has been working in Europe for awhile, but when the banks are threatened they'll get the tanks and war going again.

Get the masses focused on "the enemy" instead of the enemy right in front of their noses.

Has worked great for Wall Street and the "war on terror" so far.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:31 | 4857201 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

It's amazing.

First of all, the bullshit.

Second, the concept behind the words.

I wonder what the Hell do those journalists have in their minds, hearths and souls in order to write that kind of sh..t.-

 

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:48 | 4857231 kowalli
kowalli's picture

I wonder what the Hell do those journalists have in their minds - money

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 18:14 | 4857395 Incubus
Incubus's picture

What does everyone in have in 99% of their decisions as the primary motivator? -- Personal Gain / Wealth acquisition

 

The only people who don't use money as a factor in their motivations would be antiestablishment folk, genuinely pious religous folk, and the 1%.

 

The exception is still the 1%.  They aren't concerned with money as a goal. They have money.  Their currency is power. 

 

Whole 'nother ballgame once you reach the upper echelon.

 

Like it or not, in this cycle, us useless eaters have failed to save ourselves through innovation. 

 

TPTB  are going to hit the reset switch and start the great culliing.  Better luck next cycle.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 10:29 | 4858336 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What does everyone in have in 99% of their decisions as the primary motivator? -- Personal Gain / Wealth acquisition

Dubious hypothesis.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:31 | 4857202 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

How does a war help a hotdog vender, or a maid or movie sales or... Ya it only may help "newspaper" sales, maybe...

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:39 | 4857215 Cycle
Cycle's picture

"Everything that fits* we print"

*primary operating falsehoods - as per Edward Herman

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:46 | 4857226 jukin
jukin's picture

Communism/Fascism/Socialism/Progressivism was responsible for 100+ million dead in the twencen. How many will this failed ideology kill in the 21st?

 

That's a lot of dead consumers. Throw in the 60+ million abortions and pretty soon you are talking about a lot of people.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:52 | 4857236 TeethVillage88s
Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:47 | 4857228 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

HELL YEAH! - Let's have another war, if Johnny comes home in a box, ma and pa get $100K!  What parent wouldn't love that?  Hell, if you had 10 kids and they all got iced, you'd be a MILLIONAIRE!.... HOOAH!....

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:48 | 4857232 monkman
monkman's picture

Just another two-bit neocon cocksucker.

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 16:49 | 4857233 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Dear NYT:

 

Your kids first.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!