This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Hillary Clinton, NATO, Yanukovich, Uranium: What Wiki-Leaked Cables Reveal About Ukraine's New President

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While barely covered in the western media as a result of the curious blackout of recent developments in the Ukraine civil war, for nearly a month Ukraine has had a new president, 48 year old billionaire businessman, Petro Poroshenko. In order to cut through the fog, we decided to go straight to the source on what the US has to say about the country's new leader, who for now at least, appears to be in the good graces of both Putin and the US, namely the leaked Wikileaks cables. Readers will hardly be surprised to learn that he features quite prominently.

Here are some of the choice excerpts revealing what goes on inside Petro Poroshenko's head.

The Big Picture, From April 28, 2006: UKRAINE: OUR UKRAINE INSIDER POROSHENKO ON RADA MAJORITY COALITION TALKS, TYMOSHENKO

During an April 28 meeting with Ambassador, Our Ukraine (OU) insider Petro Poroshenko emphatically denied he was using his influence with the Prosecutor General to put pressure on Tymoshenko lieutenant Oleksandr Turchynov (refs A and B). Coalition talks with the Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) were continuing, but there was no progress to report; President Yushchenko still seemed unwilling to accept Tymoshenko as prime minister and was "listening" to influential advocates of cooperation with the Party of Regions. Poroshenko claimed that he was personally opposed to an "Orange-Blue" pairing. Poroshenko related that he had spoken at length with Tymoshenko on April 27; she had sought, and then spurned, his assistance in forming a BYuT-OU coalition in the Kiev city council. Poroshenko confided that he had spoken with Tymoshenko during the Orthodox Easter weekend (April 22-23); she had called him to ask "what he wanted" in return for his support for her serving again as PM. Poroshenko said he had replied that he wanted her to be more flexible and less high-handed in the coalition talks. Poroshenko groused that Tymoshenko could not be trusted, stressing that she was not candid and not "principled." It was very possible, Poroshenko warned, that there could be a crisis scenario in which Tymoshenko and Yushchenko simply could not get a coalition deal done. End summary.

The "Talking points" - running the show behind the scenes, from February 17, 2010: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH FM POROSHENKO

Ambassador called on Foreign Minister Petro Poroshenko February 12. Poroshenko had met earlier that day with Viktor Yanukovych, who was "elated" by President Obama's February 11 phone call of congratulations. Poroshenko said the President's call sent an important message to Yanukovych -- and also to Tymoshenko. It had helped foster stability in an uncertain post-election environment. Alluding to Tymoshenko, Poroshenko condemned "politicians who apply unacceptable methods" to undermine elections. The essential thing was to support democracy, as President Obama had done with his call. Poroshenko added that he had "tried to deliver such messages" himself. Poroshenko noted that he had prepared Yanukovych's talking points for the call.

On Poroshenko's closeness to ousted president yanukovich:

Poroshenko sought to use the meeting to highlight his closeness (or what he portrayed as closeness) to Yanukovych. He gave no signal that he planned to step down soon as FM; indeed, quite the opposite. While Poroshenko remains on the short list for prospective FMs under Yanukovych, other names figure more prominently. Ukraine's former FM and Ambassador to the U.S. and current Ambassador to Russia, Konstantin Gryshchenko, is the name senior Regions contacts mention to us most often.

Meeting with then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, from December 18, 2009, SECRETARY CLINTON'S DECEMBER 9, 2009 MEETING WITH UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER PETRO POROSHENKO

The Secretary discussed non- proliferation, security assurances, Ukraine's economic situation, and energy security with Foreign Minister Petro Poroshenko on December 9 in Washington. During the meeting, which followed the inaugural session of the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership Commission, the Secretary emphasized that, regardless of the presidential election outcome, Ukraine needs to end political infighting and implement economic reforms. She stressed the opportunity for Ukraine to make a significant contribution to the President's April nuclear security summit and urged Ukraine to make critical reforms in the energy sector. Poroshenko agreed to the Secretary's offer to send a team to Kyiv to discuss a U.S. proposal to remove Ukraine's highly enriched uranium fresh fuel. He emphasized the importance of the IMF's release of further disbursements from the Stand-By Agreement before the election to send a symbolic message, even if the disbursement is partial.

The curious case of Ukraine Uranium, and its transfer to the US:

The Secretary applauded the non-proliferation initiative Ukraine presented at the OSCE ministerial, adding that Kyiv could truly demonstrate its commitment to non-proliferation by agreeing to give up its highly enriched uranium (HEU). She suggested our two countries work together to reach agreement on a plan before the April nuclear security summit. The Secretary suggested a new proposal -- to transfer HEU fresh fuel out of Ukraine by December 2010, and she offered to send a team to Kyiv to discuss the details. The Secretary noted that, while some in Ukraine felt keeping HEU was a security blanket, the U.S. believed that this could have the opposite effect.

On NATO:

Secretary Clinton reiterated that the United States stood behind the Budapest Memorandum security assurances and that these assurances had not changed with the expiration of the START Treaty. She emphasized that the United States envisioned multiple pathways to NATO membership. The United States, however, had received mixed messages from Ukraine during its presidential campaign, and Ukraine's friends wondered whether Ukrainians really wanted NATO membership. The United States continued to support Ukraine's eventual membership in NATO, but the Secretary reminded Poroshenko that all aspirants must meet NATO standards. She noted that during the December 3 NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting, Allies commended Ukraine on the finalization of its first Annual National Program and urged Ukraine to make further progress through its 2010 program.

About those protests taking place this weekend before the Russian embassy? Guess who arranged the current ambassdor, Mikhail Zurabov. From January 26, 2010. LAVROV-POROSHENKO DEAL ON NEW RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE

At a January 26 meeting with the Ambassador, Ukrainian FM Poroshenko explained how he had cut a deal with Russian FM Lavrov to facilitate the arrival of the new Russian ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov. Moscow had burned all bridges with Ukrainian President Yushchenko and had not wanted to send a new ambassador to Kyiv until Yushchenko left office following the February 7 Ukrainian runoff election. On the other hand, both sides were interested in moving forward expeditiously on a number of bilateral issues. Poroshenko therefore got Lavrov to agree that Amb. Zurabov would arrive in Kyiv bearing written credentials addressed to Ukrainian President Yushchenko, as required by protocol and Ukrainian national sensitivities. Indeed, FM Poroshenko even showed the credential document, with Yushchenko's name, to Ukrainian TV cameras. However, Zurabov will not formally present his credentials until the new Ukrainian president has taken office, at which time he will have a new document with the new Ukrainian president's name written in place of Yushchenko's. In this way, a) the sitting Ukrainian president was shown due respect; and b) Zurabov was allowed to arrive and begin working; but c) the Russians were not required to suffer the indignity of Zurabov presenting his credentials to Yushchenko.

And finally, here is what was (formerly) the US State Department's bio of Poroshenko, from October 9, 2009: POROSHENKO CONFIRMED AS NEW FOREIGN MINISTER:

COALITION BACKS PRESIDENT'S NEW PICK

------------------------------------

(U) The Rada on October 9 approved Petro Poroshenko as Ukraine's new Foreign Minister. President Yushchenko announced Poroshenko's nomination the previous day when he withdrew his earlier nomination of the current Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S., Oleg Shamshur. Poroshenko was backed by 240 of 450 MPs, including two from the opposition. Yushchenko and the coalition led by Prime Minister Tymoshenko have been at loggerheads over a replacement for former FM Volodomyr Oryzhko who was ousted by the Rada on March 3 (ref). The Rada's refusal to consider Yushchenko's nomination of Ambassador Shamshur left the position vacant for more than six months. After his Rada confirmation, Poroshenko called for Ukraine to continue its efforts at European integration and for "pragmatic, mutually beneficial relations with Russia, based on respect for mutual sovereignty."

 

CAREER MIXES BUSINESS AND POLITICS

----------------------------------

(U) Poroshenko is one of Ukraine's richest businessmen. Estimates vary, but many consider him a (dollar) billionaire. Poroshenko controls Ukrprominvest, which has interests in bus manufacturing, shipyards, banking, and media. He also owns Roshen, Ukraine's largest confectionery company, which has factories in both Ukraine and Russia. Poroshenko served as a member of parliament from 1998 to 2005 in various political parties and was the Chairman of the National Security and Defense Council in 2005. Since 2007 he has served as the Chairman of the National Bank's Supervisory Council. In addition to his business and political activities, in 2002 Poroshenko completed his doctoral studies at the Kyiv Institute of International Relations. He speaks English.

 

COMPROMISE CARETAKER?

---------------------

(C) Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT) MP Valeriy Pysarenko told us BYuT backed Poroshenko's nomination because he may be able to help normalize relations with Russia. Pysarenko explained that unlike previous FM Oryzhko, Poroshenko can engage constructively with Moscow and would not needlessly provoke the Kremlin. Pysarenko said that Poroshenko is also willing to cooperate with the Prime Minister on foreign policy rather than oppose her as Oryzhko had. Ihor Kohut, Director of the Agency for Legislative Initiatives told us that Poroshenko was a good compromise candidate for the FM job. He said that Poroshenko has good personal relations with both the President and PM and was strong enough to balance between each of their demands. Kohut described Poroshenko as a "caretaker" Foreign Minister who has the chance to "steady the weak Ministry of Foreign Affairs" until a new president is elected.

 

OR PM CURRYING FAVOR?

---------------------

(SBU) Party of Regions MP Nestor Shufrych criticized PM Tymoshenko's bloc for its support of Poroshenko's nomination. He said that Tymoshenko's sole reason for backing Poroshenko was to gain access to his media and financial resources, including the popular television station Kanal 5, for the upcoming presidential election. Kohut agreed that Tymoshenko likely considered the benefits of Poroshenko's media and financial resources, but doubted that this was the most important factor in his approval.

 

NEMYRIA

-------

(C) Deputy Prime Minister Nemyria, commenting to visiting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Wallander October 8, noted that Poroshenko's wealth -- he called him a billionaire -- created potential conflicts of interest. While Poroshenko was National Security and Defense Council Secretary, he came under criticism that his business interests in Russia had created a conflict. Nemyria said that Yushchenko had consulted more on Poroshenko's nomination than he had Shamshur's. The President had floated the nomination with Poroshenko a month to two before and gave time for Poroshenko to build support. Nemyria highlighted Poroshenko's ambitious nature but added that there was no "ideal candidate" at this juncture.

So... is Poroshenko playing Russia, or is he really playing the US? or both.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 06/15/2014 - 12:59 | 4858699 crazzziecanuck
crazzziecanuck's picture

Playing his game.  Not holding out for anything constructive though.  Whether that's his fault or the entrenched political class is something to keep in mind too.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 14:05 | 4858833 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"Hillary Clinton, NATO, Yanukovich, Uranium: What Wiki-Leaked Cables Reveal About Ukraine's New President"

Seems to reveal jack shit, other than that he's not the gas oligarch-tress and wants the job himself. Because it's good to be king.

And we pay good money for this shit?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:08 | 4858955 strannick
strannick's picture

A land of agricultural abundance and beautiful women, America is transforming into a civil war zone and Europe's nuclear dumping ground. America ruins the world to rule it. Maybe cause Americas jealous its women are like Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:54 | 4858977 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

Hillary was a good looking woman in her day.   Bat shit crazy....but a pretty girl.

Unfortunately, the bat shit crazy part isn't the part that changes.

 

http://www.hillaryclintonquarterly.com/images/Yearbook%20Hillary%20for%2...

http://blog.timesunion.com/hottopics/wp-content/blogs.dir/565/files/star...

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:55 | 4859065 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

re Hillary was a good looking woman in her day.

Yeah right... and I'm the the Queen Of Sheba.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:24 | 4859083 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

But it is true.   The Slickster himself....the poonhound of poonhounds saw her hotness back in the day and made her his his own.....

http://dc616.4shared.com/img/LdOc4Noq/s7/0.8227196642794354/hillary_clin...

http://s-ak.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/terminal01/2011/5/12/17/enhanced...

 

And Willerized her....

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_gijz-IcaZ50/SoJky0k_NGI/AAAAAAAAAC0/ydDMJJRRdY...

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:40 | 4859156 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

So after reading about Porkyschenko, one can easily conclude he is a political whore, and will sell himself to the highest bidder.  But for some reason, Putin does not want to purchase him...could it be that Porky's sell by date is approaching?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 18:59 | 4859423 Aussie V
Aussie V's picture

She aint no Sharon Tait!

All I can see is Hilary Clinton. She does the opposite of what photo's of young girls are supposed to do.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 17:22 | 4859264 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

My friend had a crush on Cagney from Cagney and Lacey. That doesn't mean she's good-looking

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 19:13 | 4859449 studfinder
studfinder's picture

I think we need to quote Lil Wayne when it comes to Mrs. Clinton:

 

"I get her on top, she drop it like it's hot. And when I'm at the bottom, she Hillary Rodham"

 

Lollipop...she lick it like a lollipop... 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 19:37 | 4859500 jez
jez's picture

Nah. Good-looking relative to the way she looks now. But that ain't saying much. Ordinary looking compared to young American women at that time.

 

She's completely shapeless now. Even her no doubt expensive tailoring can't hide it. It makes me wonder if she is in poor health, because the very top level of modern politicians (and I empty my nose in their general direction) all know that staying in reasonable shape is part of the job.

 

She always looks to me like she's wearing a huge, wraparound colostomy bag under those pantsuits. And it's really, really full.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 22:28 | 4859969 TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

You must have a thing for lesbians. She has ALWAYS had that lezzie look about her, and speaking for myself, I don't find that attarctive at all. Bet you watch Ellen and Maddow {or Mad-cow as I call her}, and spank the monkey.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:19 | 4858982 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

So what if Porkyschenko is a crypto jew, in prostitution, white slavery, drugs, illegal weapons sales etc.? Sounds like he is the perfect presidential figurehead for the USSA state of Ukrainistan.  

Meanwhile the Ukies overthrew one corrupt oligarch, and are now ruled by another, who will give them IMF shock treatment while pocketing billions. 

Hey Ukies, how do like the feel of Uncle Sams dick up you ass?

 

 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 17:48 | 4859316 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Have your women discovered tooth brushes yet?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:25 | 4858999 BigJim
BigJim's picture

As a dual-citizen, I'm sure his interests are exactly where you might expect them to be.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:04 | 4858716 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

He is, openly or secretly, depending on who one asks, from Ashkenazi. Enough revealed for me.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:12 | 4858733 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Can't spell Ashkenazi without NAZI, seems ironic doesn't it?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:15 | 4858740 Rory_Breaker
Rory_Breaker's picture

Ask a NAZI!

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:49 | 4858809 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

Let us not forget there are many vile people of all Denominations involved in ill deeds. Look at the sunnis in the middle east and people like bush and hillary etc.  True there is a strong jewish mafia presence but they are a very small minority relative to the population at large, they are enabled by guilty parties of all faiths.  Case and point look at the Jewish and Italian mafias in the 1900s

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:04 | 4858952 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1, good comment.  There are vile people everywhere.  The mafias are a great example.  They are a scourge upon humanity.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:53 | 4859178 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

the mafia only killed their own

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 23:30 | 4860141 Hmmmmm
Hmmmmm's picture

<i>Case and point look at the Jewish and Italian mafias in the 1900s</i>

Take the jewish out of that sentence and you probably would have never heard of the italians.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 14:15 | 4858856 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

And who would you suggest I ask?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:14 | 4858737 Rory_Breaker
Rory_Breaker's picture

Bottom line is that he is going to shaft the Ukrainians up the ass

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:50 | 4858811 Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

Balls deep.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 20:48 | 4859700 intric8
intric8's picture

Balls deep and to the hilt. Hes jewish so dont expect too much prowess down there

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 23:02 | 4860070 -.-
-.-'s picture

Ron Jeremy

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 14:04 | 4858832 crazzziecanuck
crazzziecanuck's picture

No, the IMF and EU will.  The question is whether or not he's a good enough leader to steer the nation away from it all.

Not bloodly likely but...

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:11 | 4858730 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

"What difference, at this point, does it make"

Fry in the boiling water pant suit cunt.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:14 | 4858736 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

You had me at pant suit cunt, everyone who knows anything would know who you're talking about.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:16 | 4858742 Reaper
Reaper's picture

Is there honor among oligarchs and politicians, if they're Ukrainian? Only temporarily.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:18 | 4858746 suteibu
suteibu's picture

"Poroshenko condemned "politicians who apply unacceptable methods" to undermine elections"

Apparently, there are acceptable methods to undermining elections.  There must be a manual on that somewhere.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:22 | 4858752 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

To me it's a question of honor.

As an outspoken and very explicit opponent of the current diplomatic approach to me the Regime in the USA either starts backing up their big mouths...or resigns.

Sorry if that's not "diplo speak" but the bottom line is that Russia does have historical claim "of" Kiev Rus. And while Czar Poopie Pants might not be the brightest bulb in the basket...but he sure knows the what the business end of an AK is.

Instead of respecting that we've gone in "pea shooters ablazing!"

Hanging this Kiev dude out to dry like these feckless phucks did to all of France vis a vis Syria pisses me off! "Time to hide behind the skirts of your women"?

Man up you phucking whores!

"According to the historical determinist inevitability of the Imperial Capitalist contradiction those that will have vengeance done upon them for their sneaky and underhanded traitorous ways will be dealt with in due time! The Great Battle comes henceforth! The time to strike is nigh!"

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:26 | 4858759 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

speaking of clintons did anyone see that picture of chelsea in the leather pants? omg lol

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:39 | 4858789 chunga
chunga's picture

She really does look a lot like Webb Hubbell.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:51 | 4858812 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"speaking of clintons did anyone see that picture of chelsea in the leather pants? omg lol"

That's a female Bill Clinton  in her early 30s.    Removes any doubt for me about who donated the DNA.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:21 | 4858988 flacon
flacon's picture

Chelsea isn't as ugly as her parents though. But one article said that she is pregnant.... ewww... imagine Bill or HiLIARy as your child's grandparents.... yuck. 

http://usatlife.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/chelsea_clinton.jpg

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:46 | 4859164 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

The ho high heels are a nice touch!!

And I suppose the ass and thighs are worth the $600,000 per year she is paid for "occasional work"

You can't make this stuff up!!

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:59 | 4859195 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

the apple doesn't fall far from the tree...

a radical mix of dr evil and the red queen

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 21:38 | 4859843 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Bill: "You look hot, Chelsea!"

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:58 | 4859191 BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

Chelsea sure is ugly.

Money and breeding does not mean you have any class. Didn't anyone tell her that pouring herself into leather pants (that wont fit again if she gains even one more pound), without even combing her hair would make her look somewhat like a prostitute?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 22:39 | 4860006 TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

Ugly, yes, but at least she is not outright hidious like Jimmy Carter's girl was {and is}.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:07 | 4858957 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

buzz, chunga

Scary!

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 21:37 | 4859842 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Arrrgh! Hard to get that photo out of my mind.

Gross.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:30 | 4858769 Tracerfan
Tracerfan's picture

Now, he is just a 100% puppet of Washington.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:37 | 4858786 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

you know things are bad when the maggots take the reins themselves. a billionaire, yeah, the people of ukraine are REALLY FUCKED now.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:43 | 4858800 crazzziecanuck
crazzziecanuck's picture

Only if he gets assassinated will people know he's legit.  He's only one man likely facing a well-oiled oligarch-corrupted political system which he must follow.  If he doesn't follow, the precedent is set: he will be Yanukovitched.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 14:28 | 4858883 CuttingEdge
CuttingEdge's picture

And remember who now has all his country's phys au...

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 13:56 | 4858821 ChiangMai
ChiangMai's picture

 

The Saker (with whom I have no connection), writing from Florida/USA at The Vineyard of the Saker, provides, in my opinion, by far the most penetrating and incisive coverage* of the USA empowering vicious Nazis in Ukraine. Even the comments are informative and perceptive. 

* You can confirm this by skimming his RSS feed page. Note particularly the COMBAT SITREPS.

I particularly recommend (the first is extremely powerful — WARNING: very graphic live footage beginning at [02:31], and the second opens with Poroshenko):

 

[04:39] '"For Inna" - a video which should be circulated worldwide'

 

[VIDEO: 01:18] Save Donbass People from Ukrainian Army!

 

 

 

Translation of the "must read" article of worldcrisis.ru explaining why there is no Russian intervention in the Ukraine

 

Considering the "what ifs" and "then whats" of a direct Russian intervention in the Donbass

 

 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:00 | 4858933 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I followed with interest the very sudden and nearly complete black out by western media of the news out of Ukraine, both Kiev and the rebellion in the east. It seemed to me that immidiately the Kiev government began their assaults in the east, that was the instant the west shut down coverage of Ukraine. The Kiev forces first sent in were engaged in little action, and many defected to the east and many others just left and went home. A second wave of Kiev forces sent in were a mix of Ukrainian reserves and Right Sector newly formed so called National Guard units. These units set up around Self Defense postions and began to slowly escalate their actions. Such as 1 day a single mortar round onto a town, next day several mortar rounds, next day a single artillery shell, followed next day by a few dozen. Then a helicopter gun ship overfly, followed next day by a firing run. Then several gunship launched repeated attacks on Self Defense postions. Next day a ground attack aircraft overfly, follwed by escalated bombing runs to finally a broad daylight rocket attack on the center of a city. Now there are multiple rocket launcher barrages, mortar and heavy artillery shelling with repeated airstrikes, white phosphorus etc. etc.

Each escalation appeared to be a test of Russian response. After two weeks with zero response from Russia, Kiev felt confident in the use of all weapons short of chemical weapons. Russia has done nothing, and hardly even gone to the UN for resolutions. Basically the green light has been given to Kiev to carry on.

The Self Defense forces gained a victory when they captured and took control of border posts from the Ukrainian border police. Some Kiev forces defected and went on into  Russia asking for asylum others were allowed to go home where ever that might be. The result is  many kilometers of Self Defense force control of the border. These postions are being held, and allow Russian arms to easily pass into the rebel's hands. Up to and including small air defense radars, anti aircraft guns. Most importantly are the new versions of Russian army shoulder fired AA missiles and the new and deadly anti armour missile systems. The Kiev helicopters and fixed wing bombers and transports have paid a heavy price. There is even talk of a rebel "no fly " zone enforced by these radars guns and missiles.

So far, Kiev has accomplished nothing after two months of fighting. The Russians and rebels are referring to these front line towns and villages as Hero Cities. And this creates great press and moral is sky high. If you watch many of the youtube videos, even when under fire the moral seems excellent. Ukrianian youtube videos are fewer from the battle field and more from Kiev. About what you would expect from fighting forces with a 10 to 1 advantage and their own air force, but unable to accomplish jack shit. Moral? It is figured to be low, only the Right Sector National Guard seems fired with desire for a fight, and when they get a fight, that moral sinks fast.

What does the future hold. It looks like stalemate, as long as the rebels hold out, they are winning. Ukrain's nearly bankrupt coup government can't afford to pay it's bills, can't afford the continued flow of gas. Is broke and requires the IMF loans that are only going to come IF they take the east. This looks unlikely. Time is on the side of the east, Kiev's economy is a wreck and growing worse every minute. Ukraine's major industrial assets are in the east and the gas is from Russia, Kiev controls neither of these critical elements. The majority of taxes are paid by the industrial east, held by pro Russian rebels. This means tax revenues are in the shitter, the west is already suffering from heat and some drought brought on by weather systems that look bad for the future.

Kiev is going to exist as an entity and a coup government only as a direct result of American financial hand outs of money and weapons. The IMF will print Euros for Kiev, but Kiev has no means to service the loans. The strict austerity of the IMF and EU will strip west Ukrainians of much of their support and no jobs are growing. Pensions and health care will be gutted. Gas prices will soar and workers with jobs are being stripped of about half of their wages by the IMF demands.

Kiev is fucked, the coup leaders are going to be hung from lamp posts before this austerity and civil war thing ends in a ruined nation already looted to the bones by the elites who have billions each and great flats in London and Paris. The ordinary Ukrainians is entering a new dark age, they will suffer and their best bet will to become refugees and flood west aiming for Germany and France, with quick connections to the welfare offices in Britain via the channel tunnel rail service. In the end, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will be headed for Britain, just like millions from Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Sorry this is so long. But it is my take of Ukraine from the last months developments. Sort of a summing up for the period of the ast 4-6 weeks of events.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 16:47 | 4859166 Gadfly
Gadfly's picture

No need to apologize.  Excellent take.  Informative and probably sums it up as well as anything I've read on the subject.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 17:31 | 4859288 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Always good posts Jack, keep 'em coming. What's your take on ISIS? Hersh says it's a US/Saudi/Israeli experiment gone wrong, they built them up to counter Iran, now like Frankenstein they are turning on their masters. Their objectives are Mecca and Medina, and the Saudis can't do what they usually do which is bribe people to keep them in line. The US has an un-juggle-able mess on their hands, how to keep Israel and Saudi happy while keeping Iraq crude flowing while containing Iran. The "opening" of Iran is worth billions so the US wants to feed at that trough without pissing off Tel Aviv too much. Saudi will fall like a drunk sailor with the slightest nudge, then how do we get the black stuff?

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 18:30 | 4859376 NZ Watcher
NZ Watcher's picture

Very good - very good indeed.

Have copied and pasted into Word to send to some of my Kiwi followers who seem "slightly" interested in learning the "other sides" view

Not happy about you having my girlfriend as your avatar - but  :-((((

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 19:23 | 4859463 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Yes it looks like just as we did when gettting involved in Iraq America has again backed another winner. Let us hope we don't pour a great deal down this rat hole. America should stay out of this.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 19:36 | 4859497 ChiangMai
ChiangMai's picture

Apropos, latest from The Vineyard of the Saker, writing from Florida/USA (not my blog; no connection):

A scorecard for the US "lukewarm war" on Russia - strategic and tactical levels

15 June (today)

(Skim his RSS feed page to understand why I consider this source the best for Ukraine info.)

 

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:12 | 4858967 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Ukraine is going through its reset. And what do you get. One oligarch replaces another. Not much else changes.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:36 | 4859022 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"Ukranium."

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 15:46 | 4859046 Jano
Jano's picture

Porosenko - (born/father's name) Waltzman is like Nuland - (Father's name)Nudelman.
The person is a holder of Israeli passport.
Very bad for Ua.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 20:32 | 4859650 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Maybe in a last ditch effort to save the petro-dollar the US is going to install puppet regimes led by people with the name "Petro". US expects this strategy to be a bit more challenging Middle East countries and Asia but have high hopes for Mexico.

Sun, 06/15/2014 - 21:48 | 4859867 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

So Clinton had been offering Ukraine multiple paths into NATO as far back as 2010, and have always worked on Ukraine joining NATO, ok, that's all I needed to know.

 

Russia was right, Ukraine had always been about pushing NATO to Russia's door and expanding the US hegemon.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!