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Empire Fed Hits 4 Year High Despite Tumble In Employee Index

Tyler Durden's picture


It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Empire Fed jumped to 19.28, notably better than the 15.00 expectation and reached highs not seen since June 2010, and up from the 19.01 last month. It doesn't get much better than that - even in the V-shaped recovery off the recession lows: if only sentiment surveys were the same as hard data - the US recovery would never be stronger. Alas, despite all this exuberant cycle high-ness - if only in the eyes of beholders, and certainly not in Q1 US GDP of -2.0%, the number of employees index tumbles from 20.88 to 10.75 and worse still the forward-looking index dropped after 3 months of gains.



However, the worst news, comes for those who continue to, incorrectly, predict a CapEx renaissance:

As in May, indexes for the six-month outlook conveyed a strong degree of optimism about future business con-ditions. The index for future general business conditions fell four points, but remained high at 39.8. The future new orders index climbed to 44.5, and the index for expected shipments rose eleven points to 45.2. Indexes for expected prices were somewhat higher, with the future prices paid index ris-ing five points to 36.6 and the index for future prices received climbing two points to 16.1. The index for expected number of employees rose to 20.4, and the future average workweek index rose to zero. The capital expenditures index fell for a second consecutive month, dropping to 11.8—a sign that while capital spending plans were generally positive, spending growth was expected to slow.

In other words, hopefully offshore markets will keep demand strong, because local businesses sure aren't investing in capacity expansion. And why should they: their shareholders get a far greater immediate benefit when instead of investing in the future, companies reward shareholders with (debt-funded) stock buybacks here and now.

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Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:42 | 4860777 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What is this?  Inflation without an increase in wages or salaries or employment?  Unpossible!

Let me be clear; roll the motherfucking guillotines, nothing changes otherwise.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:51 | 4860808 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

You keep saying that guillotine line.  Why don't you get one and lead the way?

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:12 | 4860876 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

same as it ever was...

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:21 | 4860899 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

Most people still have too much to lose, including you it seems.

Gotta be willing to die before you can have a revolution.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:26 | 4860918 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Income gap widens as American factories shut down


The downfall of manufacturing in the U.S. has done more than displace workers and leave communities searching for ways to rebuild devastated economies. In Reading and other American factory towns, manufacturing's decline is a key factor in the widening income gap between the rich and everyone else, as people like the Ludwigs have been forced into far lower-paying work.



Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:23 | 4860910 game theory
game theory's picture

Guillotines? It's already almost six years since that thing happened...I'd have thought most people would realize there will be no reckoning to come. None. Plus, even if there *was* a reckoning with some head-chopping, the financial guys would suddenly own FastBlades Inc. and HeadChopper LLC and we'd all find ourselves suddenly hunted down as patsies. 

And as for rising wages...I see several groups still doing very well: gov't employees, university employees, police/firemen, financial execs, all other execs, hedge funders (2/20...what a deal), and more recently...students loaded with debt (which will soon to be written off). 

If you are like me...then you aren't on the list of "winners" of this crony-ponzi-scheme. Maybe they'll offer a bailout for "cranky old men that are tired of all this bullshit". I ain't holding my breath though.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:43 | 4860780 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

When green shoots are weeds.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:05 | 4860845 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Does any of this really matter? I saw on the TV that all eyes this week are focused on the produst Amazon will be rolling out on Wednesday. Fuck the mass media and fuck Amazon.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:43 | 4860783 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

In case of emergency  BREAK GLASS

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:13 | 4860880 yogibear
yogibear's picture

In an emergency use the launch codes.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:43 | 4860786 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

All you need to know about what shapes policy from the Fed and govt:


Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:49 | 4860799 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The study of economics is often baffling and confusing. Many economic theories exist but many are full of holes and conundrums. Much of how people react to a policy may have to do with timing and perception instead of reality. Economics is full of loops that feed back upon themselves and unexpected pitfalls based on expectations.

All this can become quite abstract. Economist predict events that never tend to unfold as expected or planned. Many of the "modern monetary theories" in use today have not been proven over time, but reflect an attitude that we can control  economic cycles better than in the past. More on how few people really understand this very important part of our lives in the article below.


Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:52 | 4860810 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

2014 GDP as of Q42013.  +4,7%


Q1 GDP as of today:  -2.0%


Nice miss - a mere 6.7% miss - or about a 1.2T miss in GDP.


So now the Empire shitbag index is riding high in Q2 (April, May retail in the tank) because as we know, as GDP tanks, these fuck off indexes go higher.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:55 | 4860816 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

I can only assume they are letting higher stock prices and wishful thinking seep into their ideas as to how strong this economy really is. The economic recovery that the media and talking heads have been bantering around does not exist and is just a myth. A manipulated stock market distorted by recent economic policy hides and mask the real truth, in many ways it is ground zero in the war to convince us all is well.

The American people and Main Street will tell you they are far from convinced that it is smooth sailing ahead. Huge weakness in the economy has been shown by numbers that barely get by even after record amounts of stimulus. Fact is if QE or the massive government deficit spending that props up our economy is removed it will fold like a cheap umbrella.

Recent changes in how the GDP is figured , which boosted growth thus reducing the debt to growth ratio, and attempts to spin poor numbers regarding employment have been met with skepticism. More on this subject in the article below.


Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:58 | 4860827 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

It may get lots worse with some commodities seeing much higher prices like cotton, merino wool, cashmere, for example. Those 100% cotton mens dress shirts have gone from $45 to $55 and this year 100% cotton mens dress shirts $65 and up.


Merino wool seaters have gone from $55 way up to $85 in the past three years. The local store manager said his buyer told him they will be higher next year and we will see more synthetics that are much cheaper but not as comfortable to wear.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:10 | 4860861 yogibear
yogibear's picture

But the Obama media says there is no inflation.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 08:59 | 4860833 Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

Just more baffle em with bullshit.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:07 | 4860849 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

One day in the future, someone will conclude that faulty estimates feeding into other faulty estimates generated a feedback loop that destroyed the profession of economics for generations.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:09 | 4860857 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Keep spinning the news and numbers until something sticks.

In the meantime the banksters suck up any remaing wealth by devaling the US dollar. Transfering wealth is the name of tis game.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:10 | 4860860 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Don't know why we stress on these numbers. Whatever the outcome, traders press "BUY". (both ibot and carbon based)

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:12 | 4860873 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The cemtral banks own so much stock what could go wrong?

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:14 | 4860885 nakki
nakki's picture

Its a survey that will be revised in the future

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:14 | 4860890 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

The definition of the word Conundrum is: something that is puzzling or confusing.
Here are six Conundrums of socialism in the United States of America :

1. America is capitalist and greedy - yet half of the population is subsidized.

2. Half of the population is subsidized - yet they think they are victims.

3. They think they are victims - yet their representatives run the government.

4. Their representatives run the government - yet the poor keep getting poorer.

5. The poor keep getting poorer - yet they have things that people in other countries only dream about.

6. They have things that people in other countries only dream about - yet they want America to be more like those other countries.
Think about it! That pretty much sums up the USA in the 21st Century.
Makes you wonder who is doing the math.

These three, short sentences tell you a lot about the direction of our current government and cultural environment:

1. We are advised to NOT judge ALL Muslims by the actions of a few lunatics, but we are encouraged to judge ALL gun owners by the actions of a few lunatics.

Funny how that works.

And here's another one worth considering ..

2. Seems we constantly hear about how Social Security is going to run out of money. How come we never hear about welfare or food stamps running out of money?

What's interesting is the first group "worked for" their money, but the second didn't.

Think about it.....and Last but not least,

3. Why are we cutting benefits for our veterans, no pay raises for our military and cutting our army to a level lower than before WWII, but we are not stopping the payments or benefits to illegal aliens or countries that clearly hate us?

Am I the only one missing something?

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:14 | 4861076 Possible Impact
Possible Impact's picture

Clearly stated points! Thanks. (Gonna pass this on to others...)




Mon, 06/16/2014 - 09:22 | 4860907 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

With the economy doing so well now, I don't understand why the Fed doesn't phase out QE and go ahead with a 50 basis point rate hike this week.  It looks like the economy will soon be overheating otherwise!

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