Homebuilder Confidence Beats; Remains Negative For 5th Month

Tyler Durden's picture


After 5 months of missed expectations and tumbling to one-year lows, the NAHB sentiment index jumped 4 points to 49 (still below the 'positive' 50 level). The Northeast - most troubled supposedly by the weather - saw prosepctive buyer traffic drop, but the otheer 3 regions rose with the West spiking. Just as we have seen in the last 2 cycles, NAHB survey data remains far adrift of the reality of sales, but that won't stop the algos extrapolating this jump to new highs and a recovery in housing that is back on...as HANB Chair confirms "is a welcome sign and shows renewed confidence in the industry."


NAHB remains adrift of reality...again


notably Northeast dropped as the other 3 regions rose...


“Consumers are still hesitant, and are waiting for clear signals of full-fledged economic recovery before making a home purchase,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Builders are reacting accordingly, and are moving cautiously in adding inventory.”

Perhaps MDC's CFO summed it up best...

“While we’ve made improvements, we’re still well off of what would be considered maybe average or more of a normal basis,” John Stephens, chief financial officer, said during a June 5 conference presentation. “We need to see improvements in consumer confidence and job growth, really, which is really going to drive homebuilding at the end of the day.”

Charts: Bloomberg

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Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:18 | 4861085 Stoploss
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Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:19 | 4861088 BobTheSlob
BobTheSlob's picture

Why would you buy a house when you could be like goatherder and buy moar bitcoin?

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:21 | 4861098 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

do they have a 1 bedroom apartment builders index?


if so, this number is rocketing!!!

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:24 | 4861114 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Tractor trailer home conversions are up.

Prime real estate along railroad tracks.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:28 | 4861131 BobTheSlob
BobTheSlob's picture

Get over yourself. Real estate is a local phenomenon. Where I live they can't build fast enough. There's no such thing as a $200K house here anymore. Always has been this way, always will be...until the baby boomers are all dead.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:28 | 4861128 Nue
Nue's picture

I'm not sure but the "The Newspaper lined cardboard box" is at an all time record.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:29 | 4861132 BobTheSlob
BobTheSlob's picture

Sounds like you need to MOVE.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:22 | 4861101 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Below average is the new normal for most Americans.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:45 | 4861183 NoDebt
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Beating expectations ALL the way down.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 11:38 | 4861358 pods
pods's picture

They are making it up on volume, quite literally from what I have seen lately.  

Fat is the new skinny.


Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:22 | 4861103 ilovemilken
ilovemilken's picture

Prolonged low interest rates has encouraged more people to play "Flip this House"

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:26 | 4861121 BobTheSlob
BobTheSlob's picture

Get used to it. ZIRP and NIRP are the new normal. We missed the boat on being able to have normal interest rates when we passed the 10 Trillion in debt threshold.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:28 | 4861129 Bosch
Bosch's picture

To flip things around, their lack of confidence might be a good thing.  Like Wall Street telling us now is a good time to buy. 

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:32 | 4861148 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Amazing how companies and industries can beat estimates all the way down to zero. What a joke of a market btw.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:46 | 4861190 MFL8240
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Mon, 06/16/2014 - 10:55 | 4861209 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

""is a welcome sign and shows renewed confidence in the industry."

ha, ha, ha....


Mon, 06/16/2014 - 11:38 | 4861359 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Let the homebuilders burn!  There is no recovery, only bullshit and lies.

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 14:21 | 4862006 novictim
novictim's picture

Why haven't home builders started building when home pirces on the California coast are sky high?  It is because they know this is all BULLSHIT.

Home builders see a phony market place teatering on a ruinous bubble collapse and don't want to commit to the year long process of building a developement community and then lose their shirts.

But they will build Rental Units.  That is right, USA has become a rental country run by oligarchs.

All hail the oligarchs!

Mon, 06/16/2014 - 15:07 | 4862221 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Somebody needs to find out who is charge of the weather and get them some re-training.

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