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Russia Halts Gas Supplies To Ukraine
After weeks of worthless foreplay whose outcome was known from the beginning despite just as worthless EU middleman Oettinger assuring everyone a deal was imminent any second now, overnight we got the long-anticipated mutual defection outcome and - as we warned - negotiations between Gazprom and Ukraine/EU fell apart with the Russian energy giant halting supplies to Ukraine unless Kiev prepays any and all gas deliveries from now on. Gazprom said it hadn't received payment for a debt it put at $4.458 billion by the Monday deadline it had set. "Ukraine will receive gas only in the amounts it has paid for," Gazprom said.
The reason for the collapse in talks: Kiev wants to pay $268.5 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas - the price it had been offered when Yanukovich was in power - but, in a compromise last week, said it would agree to pay $326 for an interim period until a lasting deal was reached. Moscow had sought to keep the price at the 2009 contract level of $485 per 1,000 cubic meters, but had offered to waive an export duty, bringing down prices by about one-fifth to $385, which brings it broadly into line with what Russia charges other European countries.
In other words, the delta was less than $60, and certainly a "fair" offer to Ukraine considering it is what Europe pays. However, it wasn't low enough for Kiev, which certainly is out of money once again having to spend the bulk of its IMF/EU aid to keep its military armed, and the only logical outcome - one in which the country would no longer receive something for nothing - transpired.
This hardly will be surprising to anyone: moments ago Gazprom CEO Miller added that Ukraine is unable to pay for its gas obligations in arrears, something the Ukraine side had confirmed previously when Miller added Kiev had been pumping Russian gas in its underground storage facilities at a blistering pace preparing for just this eventuality.
End result, a few hours ago, Gazprom made the following announcement: "Today, from 10:00 a.m. Moscow time, Gazprom, according to the existing contract, moved Naftogaz to prepayment for gas supplies ... Starting today, the Ukrainian company will only get the Russian gas it has paid for."
Gazprom also warned EU on "possible gas transit risks", meaning since all the gas sent to Europe transits Ukraine, it was quite possible Kiev would simply continue to siphon off Russian gas without paying for it. The problem there, however, is that the parties impacted would be Ukraine's BFFs: Germany, central Europe, and, of course, the UK. And what better way to sow discord among otherwise bosom friends than have them start fighting for Russia's energy scraps...
And now the question: how long before Ukraine's alleged 14 BCM in gas held in storage runs out and Kremlin once again has all the leverage. According to simple estimates, a few months at most, and certainly just in time for Ukraine's winter.
Gazprom said on Monday it had filed a lawsuit at the Stockholm arbitration court to try to recover the debt, while Ukraine's Naftogaz said it was filing a suit at the same court to recover $6 billion in what it said were overpayments.
A source at Gazprom said supplies to Ukraine had been reduced as soon as the deadline passed. EU data suggested that volumes were broadly stable as of 0630 GMT (7.30 a.m. BST), but it could take hours for data on Russian gas flows via Ukraine to reflect any reduction in supply in Slovakia or elsewhere.
Any reduction of supply could hit EU consumers, which get about a third of their gas needs from Russia, around half of it through pipelines that cross Ukraine. Earlier price disputes led to the 'gas wars' in 2006 and 2009 and Russian accusations that Ukraine stole gas destined for the rest of Europe.
"The gas for European consumers is being delivered at full volume and Naftogaz Ukraine is required to transit it," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told reporters.
Ukraine's Naftogaz declined to comment, saying it would issue a statement later in the day, but its pipeline operator Ukrtransgaz said it was operating normally.
The "market" was quick to react and "punish" Gazprom:
Russian shares fell on the talks' collapse, which will increase tensions between Moscow and the West and could make it harder to arrange a truce in east Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops are fighting rebels who want the region to be absorbed by Russia.
At 0740 GMT, the dollar-denominated RTS index was down 2.2 percent at 1344 points, while the rouble-based MICEX slid 1.7 percent to 1,476 points, with investors fearful of growing tensions after the failure of talks.
Western countries see the talks as a gauge of Putin's willingness to compromise and had been looking for signs that he was trying to avert the threat of more Western sanctions.
Tensions were already high following Russia's annexation of Crimea after Moscow-leaning president Viktor Yanukovich was ousted and pro-Western leaders took over power in Kiev.
And now that Russia has not only cut off Ukraine but is allegedly once again piling up troops at the border following this weekend's bloodiest escalation yet, it is surely time to BTFD and BTFATH at the same time, because very soon it will surely be time for "Mr Chairman/woman to get to work" and inject gobs more liquidity to give the impression that all is still well.
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Fuck you Kiev
A different twist on the Ukraine Crisis;
Having read ZeroHedge daily for a few years now, I can attest the few thousand of us who read this religiously are quite knowledgeable about BOTH sides of the Ukrainian conflict. We understand both Eastern and Western media are essentially propaganda outlets, we can accept the fact that both sides of the conflict have valid arguments, and can completely emphasize with the Western-Ukrainians not wanting a thing to do with Russia, and the Eastern-Ukrainians not wanting a thing to do with the EU. We understand why Russia acted quickly to take Crimea, both from a historic, cultural and military perspective – it makes sense, and they would be fools for not doing so.
However, what happens when we compare the justifications for the annexation of Crimea with another goofy landmass in what is today Eastern Europe – that of Königsberg, erm, I mean, Kaliningrad?
Crimera came under Russian control in 1783 when Catherine the Great conquered and subsequently expelled the Khanate, a vassal of the Ottoman Empire who’s primary source of revenue was selling over 2 million Russians and Ukrainians into the Ottoman slave trade. For the most part, (save for a few years during the Russian Civil war and the Second World War) Crimera always “bended the knee” to Moscow, until, Khruschev in a drunken stupor, gave it away to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954. Russia’s historic claim to Crimea is one that is substantial – and is as valid as the United States’ historic claims to the original Thirteen Colonies. (The Treaty of Paris was signed in 1783 ending the Revolutionary War and Great Britain “granting”American independence.)
Königsberg, erm, Kaliningrad became a Prussian Duchy with ties to Poland in 1525 after Königsberg’s population became predominately Lutheran during the Protestant Reformation, resulting in the subsequent expulsion of the secular Teutonic Knights who founded the city 300 years before. Although a fief of the Kingdom of Poland, Prussia and Königsberg were distinctively“German” with their own culture, language (German), and religion (the Prussians were Lutheran while the Polish were Catholic). Then in 1701, before either Catherine the Great (1729), George Washington (1732), John Hancock (1737) or even Benjamin Franklin (1706) were born, Frederick Wilhelm’s son became the King of Prussia formally separating the Kingdom of Poland and the Kingdom of Prussia.
Although Prussia as a kingdom fought many wars with its neighbors from its founding in 1701 to its eventual destruction in 1945, the Prussians have found themselves at odds with various factions, having fought against the Russians (Seven Years War), the French (Napoleon) and even the Bavarians (War of the Fourth Coalition), now a part of Germany. Moreover, German unification was a Prussian idea, and the current state of Germany owes its roots to the liberalism espoused in places like Königsberg.
Another valid claim Putin lay on Crimea is that of culture, including language. In Crimea at the beginning of this year approximately 60% of the population was either Russian or their ancestors were Russian. The next largest demographic sub-segment was Ukrainians followed thereafter by the Tartars. Russian, at the time of annexation earlier this year was the predominate language in Crimea, and no one materially doubted the Russian population of Crimea voting to join the Russian Federation.
Unlike Crimea, contemporary Königsberg is overwhelmingly ethnically Russian, consisting of almost 85% of the population. The primary language in Königsberg today is Russian, and the overwhelming majority of people there identify themselves as Russian. However, like the Germans before the Russians, and the Prussians there before the Germans, the group of people who occupy this piece of ground do not see themselves as 100% Russian, but rather Russians living abroad, similar to the British who lived in Hong Kong before its return to China in 1999. There have been various attempts within, what is now the Kaliningrad Oblast to secede from the Russian, culminating with the Baltic Republican Party being officially banned in 2005. Lithuania has asserted claims to the territory since the fall of the Soviet Union. Poland has not produced any such movements, due to general fears that any changes in boundaries might “spawn competing claims on territory awarded to Poland at the end of World War II.” (Enlace to Exclave: Kaliningrad Between Russia And The European Union)
However, in recent years there has been a remigration of ethnic Lithuanians, Poles and Germans back into Königsberg, albeit slowly. If, however, Kaliningrad becomes “Königsberg” again (politically moreso than simply in name) – and somehow “opens up” to its neighbors, it is expected this pace would increase dramatically. Additionally, unlike Crimea, the Russian population in Königsberg is not native to the area, whereas the Russian population in Crimea is. This more or less negates the argument that “this land has always belonged to Russia” that was correctly used in the conflict in Crimea.
Lastly, the military comparison between Crimea and Königsberg/Kaliningrad exists, but works in differing directions. Both Crimea and Königsberg/Kaliningrad are warm-water ports for the Russian Navy, both have large Russian military garrisons, and while Crimea is of paramount strategic importance to the Russian Federation’s state security, so is Königsberg to the various EU-member states. It is a central European nation which can house the balance of the Russian military just a few hundred kilometers from Warsaw and less than 600 from Berlin.
So, while Putin has excellent historic, cultural and military claims to Crimea, Germany or a theoretical Prussian state has equally valid claims to what is now Kaliningrad. At first glance – it would appear I am advocating for the annexation of Kaliningrad or, in the alternative that Putin was wrong in annexing Crimea, this assumption is however, incorrect.
Putin must play his cards carefully; as the case he laid out for his Crimean annexation could be copy/pasted onto Kaliningrad with the greatest of ease. His own argument, could, and most likely will, be used against him. If recent history is any indicator, Russian warm-water ports keep getting thrown into a state of civil war, destruction, and chaos. Given that Kaliningrad has received more funding per capita ($159 per capita) than Ukraine ($109) from the West, since the fall of the USSR – it wouldn’t surprise me to see the West vs East shitstorm move north sooner rather than later.
I can think of nothing better than “Hey, dear people living in Kaliningrad, did you see what Germany did to the former DDR since the fall of the wall? Quality of life has improved, average income has gone up, environmental quality has improved, etc., etc., simply vote to join them, and you can receive all these benefits too.” If the EU could somehow collapse Kaliningrad’s economy, make quality of life quite difficult, and magically a civil war breaks out – this doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.
-- Haus-Targaryen
C'mon, the czech's in the mail.
And good for another 30 points up on the S&P. Just imagine the rebuilding contracts after WW3 is over.
Blood Lands reloaded.
http://www.amazon.com/Bloodlands-Europe-Between-Hitler-Stalin/dp/0465031471
"And like that... [poof]... it's gone!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkJqKOb0ZhY
I guess the White Stream Gas Line that was supposed to link up to the Ukraine via Crimea,making the Ukraine independent of russian gas, is no longer in the works, LOL
Vlad 1, Nuland 0
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Stream
Nulandstein.
(fixed. she has 2 passports?)
Cash n carry, like the corner store.
"I'll take a couple of these Snickers, a soda and give me 5 billion cubic yards of Nat Gas."
"You need a bag?"
"No, she's waiting in the car..."
Prepayment <> cut off.
I wonder how the Ukraine Free Shit 'Army' is gonna react to this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YThOJkDrCw
Should be an interesting instantiation of what LawsofPhysics frequently refers to re: supply lines, esp. energy supplies. Generally speaking, laying the hammer down on energy is as much an act of war as launching missiles, though it has substantially better political upside to it (ie., the only play left for the Ukraine/backers is to strike militarily via either direct assault or false flag, and with that carries the negative political/strategic implications of being the first combat mover).
I don't see how it's an act of war, and I honestly think people should stop viewing it as such. There is nothing wrong economically or morally with keeping your resources inside your borders and making use of them.
If you want to argue for abolition of borders, then sure you might have something there.
Cutting off food or water is considered a war crime under the Geneva accords.
Cutting off oil or gas is not listed as such. Nor is cutting off ammo. Nor would be cutting off flat screen TVs. Nor funding.
However, in contrast to all of this, a naval blockade is indeed considered an act of war.
It appears that there is no formal definition for such things past the Geneva accords.
Russia hasn't cut anything off. Ukraine can buy it at the price offered to everyone else.
Now, it might get interesting if they require payment in gold.
viva #Eritrea
"for signs that he was trying to avert the threat of more Western sanctions."
LOL!
That will go into the joke of the day book...
Thanks for giving plenty of time to collect wood for coming winter.
Naw... Obama can just give a speech and tell those pesky Ukrainians to take a pill and relax. We've got the extra gas and his speeches make getting it there a reality.
"Number 1, make it so."
Move along. This is not the major war the New York Times is looking for.
Be patient, the Ukies, manipulated by the USSA/Nudelmans, are dumb enough to make it a major war.
Bet we will see Dow 30,000 just before Multiple Mushroom clouds appear over the horizon.
I don't quite get you guys and your talk about "major war".
Where is the oil going to come from for Ukraine to fight a major war? Russia isn't going to fuel that and there is no other source.
"...and we estimate 1.2 Billion broken windows..Eh?"
"Joe, get the smelling salts! Dr Krugman has passed out."
If the Ukrainian government just paid what they owed Gazprom instead of using batshit crazy tactics to try and intimidate the Russians, we would not likely be having this discussion.
Nevertheless, thank you for an interesting post.
The Ukrainian puppet does what Washington DC tells him to do. And Obozo and his masters do not want to pay a penny to Gazprom.
Tabarnaque And Obozo and his masters do not want to pay a penny to Gazprom.
---
Um, Obozo already has. ANY dollar of aid osusidizes any cost Ukraine has, including Ukraine's gas bill.
Ukraine is bankrupt, but unlike bankrupt individuals, is unable to discharge her obligations in BK court.
Countries usually discharge obligations such as this with complete "regime change". Examples of this might be the Bolshevik government refusing to pay the debts of the deposed Czar or the Union's refusal to pay the Confederacy's debts after the War Between the States. These sort of "regime changes" seem to need to be violent rather than being done at the polls as Ukraine's apparently have (more or less).
Fuck you, Kiev
A different twist on the Ukraine Crisis;
Having read ZeroHedge daily for a few years now,
___________________________________________________
Best comical duo lines this day.
Always makes you wonder why 'americans' spend so much resources on funding an entertainment industry when their delusion lead them naturally to this type of lines.
LOL. Besides, what would you call the courtesy of Gazprom putting the Ukraine on a prepaid gas regime?
From Russia, with Love?
For someone who supposedly reads ZH for years, you would know that this is fight club and we don't pull our punches, bitchez.
LOL. Besides, what would you call the courtesy of Gazprom putting the Ukraine on a prepaid gas regime?
___________________________________________________________
Doing the 'american' work. 'Americans' have announced they are on the way to isolate Russia and in their typical ways of doing it, they require to sort out what the russian interests are and what they are not.
_______________________________
For someone who supposedly reads ZH for years, you would know that this is fight club and we don't pull our punches, bitchez.
_____________________________________
Been reading for years. Can confirm it is an 'american' fight club, with what it implies, like 'americans' prefer to stage fantasy fights instead of facing 'americanism'.
Speak of 'americanism' and reign supreme. 'Americans' are so in fear of 'americanism' that prefer to fight a staged version of you. Comfort and peace of mind.
Honestly Bro, I don't Grok you. Good try anyways.
I am not entirely sure what you are getting at here, but your inability to articulate your point speaks volumes.
Anonymouse is one of the thousands who read here but one who doesn't understand anything except that he doesn't like 'american citizen citizenism'. He does understand how to iron shirts.
Anymouse has failed to say a single thing that convinces me he isn't a poorly crafted ChatBot. A classic Turing Test fail. Of course he may have real blood in his veins but he still fails the test of exhibiting human intelligence.
Telling who is a human being, who is not, who is a sub human or a non human, typical 'american' business.
The 'american' nature is eternal.
AnAnonymous Telling who is a human being, who is not, who is a sub human or a non human, typical 'american' business.
---
That is not even a complete sentence.
Where is AKAK when we need him?
For 'americans', the group is all.
Gaining social value by defending the group... That would be fantastic.
Not even a complete sentence.
Hmm... I think Yoda easier to understand is.
Uhura, can you help with the translation?
'Americans' revel in wanton, blind hatred. When an 'american' is asked of the causes of their hate,it comes out of a cesspool of fantasy.
On the other hand, in all their history, they've put a special effort in crushing people who hate with causes. Hating is bad, say 'americans'.
That is because they know that, them 'americans', have been doing many things that human beings usually answer to with hatred.
In summary, I think you are trying to say is that Americans hate haters, yet are wanton and blind in their hatred. Is this correct?
'Americans' do not hate haters as 'americans' are haters themselves. And 'americans' worship themselves.
'Americans' hate on haters who hate with justification.
That is because 'americans' do many things that draw justified hatred.
On the opposite side, 'americans' hate but with no justification.
Don't worry...it's AnAnonymous....it's pussy must be itching...
It explains it when 'americans' fail to recognize their own sense of humour.
Chaining up the two comments as it was done was excellent display of humour.
Humour bloobing up like citizenizm.
Place head in Dutch O-Van, await methane injection, bloobing up deep breath now.
Speaking of blobbing up, still now on this site about NAFTA.
Years ago, on this site, it was reported that 'americans' look to blob up.
Not only it was reported, but it was also announced that Europe was a done deal and that 'americans' were working at merging both north American and Europe.
Even better, it was foretold that 'americans' would prefer to talk about Europe (which is a done deal, they can pretend condemning at no risks, it wont stop the process) while avoiding to speak about the next step because this process is not yet beyond the point of return.
And what?
Still nothing about NAFTA.
The 'american' nature is eternal. And predictible.
Alas, alas, three times alas, I told a comment less than a week ago regards NAFTA.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-10/brazil-over-3-times-more-likely...
Sure, you can evaluate and disregards it as coming from an 'american'.
Still, cannot call it a nothing...
Is it very hard or is it impossible for an 'american' to face reality?
What next? Setting up a Wiki page to try to promote that fantasy made NAFTA in opposition to NAFTA reality?
It was already done in the past so why not?
Still nothing on NAFTA.
As predicted years ago now.
.
Come on, bro, do you even need to ask such a thing?
BTW, serious question here (yes, I know, not usually found on well trodden 'american' paths). In your opinion, is answering a rhetoricsal question with another rhetoricsal question an 'american' thing?
Not only is it not nothing, not even a fantasy cesspool, not a xcellent display of humour, it is in fact the mattering thing, and very much something not yet beyond the point of return.
By entertainment industry, do you mean the Federal Reserve?
Their comedy series has gone on since 1913....
Um...
This article was published on ZH at 7:41am, the first post was 7:42am, and your post was 7:45am? 1,132 words? Neglecting even the time required to read the article, you type at nearly 300wpm?
Shall I call you "Tyler" from this point forward?
yeah, and he got 9 up votes. mutherfucker, please
You can call me whatever you want to ...
If I was a Tyler, why would I post this in the comments section, and not just simply make my own entry?
I could care less, and if you are, then good on you.
If you tell me that you cut and pasted something you had previously written, then I'm good with that too.
But to read, comprehend, and write a thesis in 4 minutes - not happening unless you had a hand in writing.
I think there are a few who get new articles in the mail before it's posted here. For whatever reason. It's a big club and you ain't in it.
I'm inclined to go with the pre - written version.
Have to admit I've done that occasionally, because it made sense to capture and edit some thoughts at leisure, and then wait for the right article to come along.
Have you seen how fast LTER can post? First post on threads in which pro-gov, pro-enviromentalism can be successfully pushed. There are more than a few bots on this site with templates ready to go.
What is an LTER?
THAT is a good question.
ZH member "Let Them Eat Rand".
Heh heh - he said "member".
A dental hygiene products and services salesperson, I figger.
enitirely too long. i always look forward to a retardedly long comment near the top of every thread. /s
It seemed applicable to the conversation at hand, and presents a spin to the topic that hasn'T really been covered anywhere. You don'T have to read it. Free country and all ...
.
Where?
Well played.
What about that chunk of Japanese real estate whose current residents happen to like eating borsch?
Iceland
Bhutan
I used to know one of those but I seemed to have misplaced it.
a warning about the length of long comments is customary and a link is preferable. the first (long) paragraph is fluff. remember the saying about brevity.
There are not enough long analyses by the readers any more. This used to be one of the biggest draws to this site. I remember "reading" many articles posted by Tyler by basically skipping right to the comments section.
More analysis by more people is good. If you don't want to read it, don't.
This is an interesting post HT but I am not sure how easy it is to get a population to vote against a government that has a massive military force based on top of that population. Germany is a good example of this. I don't think Germany would behave in the same manner as they have if there were not tens of thousands of American (and other Anglo American) forces based within its borders. Hard to say what they would do, but you can bet they are a whole lot more "pro-American" with those troops there than they would be otherwise.
Sure, without a doubt you are correct.
Wolfgang Schäuble has said essentially that;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlU2HLeGNwQ
I can verify that translation.
---
While populations don't tend to vote against dissolving themselves from their respective state all that often -- it does happen more often than we think. Sometimes it is done peacefully (See the Czechoslovakia breakup in 1991) other times, not so much (Baltics, Ukraine, Syria, etc., etc.,) and we needn'T forget the upcoming votes in Venice, Catalonia and Scotland.
What I do know is the human condition, -- that is the overwhelming majority of us want to provide a better lives for ourselves and our kids. While we all will hang onto a flag or banner, when it becomes hard to feed yourself, the voting public almost always turns on their leadership. Only in the USSA do we double down on the same mistakes over and over again.
Imagine this thing in Ukraine really does flair up into a regional "hot war." What would be an efficient use of Russian military resources -- having them sit in Kaliningrad or, in the alternative, deploy them to Ukraine? Kaliningrad is geographically isolated from the rest of Russia, and has no means of direct connection to it save the ocean, which does Russia no good in the winter. Its more isolated than West-Berlin was, as at least there was a highway and railroad tracks that connected West Berlin to West Germany. Kaliningrad enjoys no such luxury.
Given that 2 out of the 3 Russian warm water ports have fallen apart into a state of, in the best case -- civil war (Ukraine) and all out anarchy (Syria) -- for us to think that Kaliningrad will be left alone, when the West has spent more money per capita there than in either Syria or in Ukraine is telling. However, what is perhaps most telling is the following map, taken directly from the EU's website on Kaliningrad;
http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/neighbourhood/regional-cooperation/enpi-east/documents/annual_programmes/tacis_success_story_final_en.pdf
"lol oh fuck" should be the thought that comes to your mind when looking at that map, and given the error, and given that the topic of the PDF is on Kaliningrad -- seems too "ironic" to be true.
Expect fireworks there in the future.
Now that the Germans are in the driver's seat they need to get more aggressive about restoration of their 1914 borders, particularly the return and resettlement of East and West Prussia.
I am curious -- who downvoted this comment --- and why?
Woodrow's, Stalin's, and CIA/MI6/Mossad's sock puppets.
Why? There were rather large forced emigration and "resettlement" programs that still have not been totally successful at winning the hearts and minds of the German, Polish, Ashkenazi, and many other smaller ethnic groups.
Good post.
I think right now Kalingrad is bristling with Iskanders.
Which is hilarious -- because other than the port -- there is nothing really worth protecting there.
There is no "truce."
If Crimea were "all Russian" and all that he wouldn't have had to be the aggressor. Kiev was running Crimea...there were no threats to "indigenous Russians" as Kiev Rus and Russia are the same.
So now we have "fluidity." Borders being not changed but created by facts on the grounds. Millions of Germans wound up "in Germany" after World War II. (Czechoslovakia being one of the biggest cases.)
So here we go again.
There is always room for negotiations. Another "re-ordering of the East." But only through a clear and tough minded assessment of what in fact is the methods that are being used (unprovoked aggression) can these negotiations proceed.
Putin has learned nothing from History. He's making enemies not just in the totality of the West from within Russia itself.
Western Europe has in my opinion learned something...but very little really...of the post war creations to make sure Europe would remain at peace with one another. "Collective security" means in order to stop the aggressor you have to band together and start "laying down the gauntlet" (if necessary) to get the aggressor to understand you're serious about not wanting these ways to ever happen again.
Not even the United States...incredibly...has made this argument. This is "all about Ukraine"...or "Konigsberg" if you will...but should be about protecting borders and making sure movements "along the frontier" are explained to show intent.
This so far is a total failure...or I should say failing... of the post World War structures put in place to prevent such things.'
The unwillingness to give voice to these structures is really a crime in my view. The lack of "intellectual will" is...well, it seems willful in my view.
So I upvoted you, because even though I don'T necessarily agree with you -- I like the discourse.
If you were in charge -- what would you do differently?
Honestly, Disabledvet, I am sure if you are an Ukie shill, a Russian hater, or just another deluded american brain burned by too many SSRI's.
Crimea voted to separate from the Ukraine in 1993 and the Kiev government said no. Russia did not intervene, and let Crimea alone until a hard CIA led coup overthrew the president of the Ukraine and replaced him with state department stooges. Those fascist stooges then planned to evict Russia from Sevastopol and replace them with an American/NATO fleet. Had this happened, with Russia now facing an existential threat, Putin would been forced to attack, possibly launchig WW3. As it stands, we are still on dangerous ground given the outrageous provocations against Russia from the Kiev Kriminals.
The Crimeans wanted to separate from the Ukraine, most of whom are ethnic Russian. Kiev constantly drain them of billions every year, allowed the infrastructure to fall apart, and also created special environmental zones on the south coast, giving prime land to insiders while denying any access to the locals. Notice how more than 80% of the Ukrainian Military in Crimea defected and joined Russia rather than return to the Motherland. During the reunion with Russia, no one was killed. That should tell you all you need to know about the love 'lost' between Crimea and Kiev.
If you feel so strongly about Crimea, why don't you take a plane to Sevastopol, and join the resistance movement? You will find them in the local bars drinking vodka, pretending to chase girls, and talking shit like yourself.
You are quite a KGB shill, then. There was no vote in 1993 in Crimea to separate from Ukraine. True, Crimea got a special status within Ukraine then. True, most of the people there are ethnic Russians, mostly the retired best guard dogs of the old soviet regime (it was a huge privilege to be allowed to retire into Crimea back then). These people have been moved into the peninsula to basically populate it after WW2 and Tatar deportation. Shortly after the war, it became clear that Russia cannot manage the peninsula, so it was moved to Ukraine.
Twenty or so years from now, the current old Russians will be dying out, and the Tatars will multiply. Guess who is going to be the majority then, and guess what is going to happen? Like then, now Russia cannot manage Crimea - moreover, the place is outside of the international law, and therefore cannot take part in international trade legally (read up on what happened to all those ports in Crimea which used to handle stuff coming from Turkey - CLOSED). Even the airspace over the place is effectively closed, and there are flights into SIP only because ICAO is too busy scratching its balls over the issue.
the russians wanted to give it back in the early 90s but germany didnt wanted it...
Yes, Kohl later said it was one of his largest mistakes. Also, had those comminiques been made public, in the ferver of Reunification at the time, its likely Kaliningrad would be one again, Königsburg.
To think this little piece of land will remain Russia forever seems foolish though. I could see one of three things happening in order of likelihood:
1) Latvia gets it
2) Germany gets it
3) It becomes its own state.
Poland would have to have huge balls and no sense of history to even make a play for it.
Haus,
You correctly point out there have been shifting ethnic compositions in European lands.
Were that the ONLY factor involved, perhaps the best mediation might be open and fair elections and/or federalism.
BUT that is NOT THE ONLY FACTOR nowadays. The Ukraine-Crimea situation arose because of aggressive NATO/EU/US expansionism intended to gain full-spectrum dominance over a weakened Russia.
Were those factors removed, ethnic/territorial disputes would be less incited and provoked (by NATO/Nuland/McCain/CIA/Mossad etc.) to violence, and corrupted and motivated by base (global militarist/TBTF financial) motives,
and likely could better be handled through negotiations and elections.
Not saying there would then be all harmony and happiness throughout Europe,
but that the nationalist/ethnic/religious differences and disputes are being used to manipulate and divide average europeans in order to serve the interests of the US/EU TBTF oligarchy.
A peaceful resolution of conflicts and territorial governance is not possible along historical, ethnic, or any other grounds so long as that violence-based and driven expansionism continues.
Oh absolutely. I am not exactly sure you could consider the Crimean takeover violent, per se. I think only one person was killed --- right?
Most people here just want to live in peace, and be masters of their own house. However The East/West conflict is making this difficult in many instances.
I do not consider Crimea to be an example of Russian expansionism. The matter was handled in a most peaceful manner. ( I named the principal belligerent expansionists in my prior comment, and Russia is not now one of them).
however, it has still not been resolved given US and Kiev pledges to NEVER recognize the Crimean vote for independence and annexation, and the ongoing US/NATO threats and economic warfare.
I'm sure our owners consider that a very bad precedent. They don't like the idea of the livestock dictating to them how and where the corral fences will be constructed.
How will Washington feel if/when the future Mexican majority in the Southwest wants to vote on a reunification with Mexico? Why hasn't Gaza and the West Bank become an independent country? There are many other examples, many of them in the EU, like Catalonia. Our owners don't want any more UN members unless those members are constructs and vassals of the current western PTB.
this is the kind of thoughtful commentary that keeps me coming back to the zh comment boards for years.
kalliningrad is a fascinating thing to study as i too have read much about it.
a few points
1) it is rumored russia keeps nukes in kaliningrad. if the iron curtain pulled back over mother russia she left one of her primary outposts there.
2) demographics are destiny. the idea of what land is 'traditionally' belonging to someone is mostly if not entirely a fabrication that leverages the idea of 'history'. case in point, my fellow zionists are frequently choked up when i blanketly state that israel is a colonial outpost and that 2000 years old residence of a hebrew kingdom is nothing but nonsense propaganda pulled out of the asses of people who wanted a homeland for themselves. a fair number of zionists will even admit this to be the case. -----'historical' ties to a land are nonsense.
i use the case of israel because so many people, driven by their unknowing brainwashing by other people who are anti-semites, believe that jews should not inhabit israel because the historical excuse is bullshit. it is so 'obvious' for liberals to see this reality , is their intellectual laziness that prevents them for realizing this applies to ALL people's and situations. all territories of this earth were once inhabited by other people's or species for the purposes of measuring modern civilization. claiming a historical 'tie' is nothing more than claiming that because a people had controlled a territory in the past, they SHOULD in the future. there is no moral claim on territory. there is only a present claim based on current or desired control. that is the 'might makes right' argument. if you control a territory now , you can only rightly claim to be the one who is 'entitled' to control it. of course, the present is very much connected to the past in terms of the most recent 'history' of the control.
thus 'demographics is destiny' . given enough people, and enough reproduction over time, a territory is likely to gain a 'character' of the people in habiting it.
this is the very basis of colonization. it is THE REASON you send people to live in conquered territories rather than merely rule them as satrap; IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE CHARACTER SO THAT THE TERRITORY BECOMES MORE CLOSELY IDENTITIFED AND ALLIGNED WITH THE CENTER 'MOTHER STATE'.
the united states is nothing but the most succesful example of this police.
china in tibet, russians taking crimea and shipping tatars out to siberia.
the past is littered with 'events' of this nature used to set up a decades and century long demographic pattern to recharachterize a land.
in the pre-civilizatoin past ---this would happen at a much smaller scale and in a far more distributed manner as groups of human beings expanded all over the planet in every direction as far as they could walk.
with civilization came the mass use of horses, boats, then many many years later, bicycles trains trucks and airplanes.
kaliningrad is only what the people there say it is until it is conquered. and until that happens IT IS russian with a baltic flavor as defined by its current demographics , which as a small highly strategic city state, is unlikely to change soon. PLUS_--they make good money and are better off financially than russians----so it's not a bad spot and is stable...
Haus - - - might ultimately makes right, don't you know that ?
Poroshenko is a ”fuc#er”!
Yatsenyuk is a ”dic#head”!
Some folks write like Alan Greespan talks & when you get done listening or reading you realize they said nothing & it was a waste of your time.
Siphon off that bitch. Add it to the EU bill. Hell, we pay it anyway thru IMF.
It's KYIV, you ignorant twat. Puck Futin, btw
Kiev? I think you are blaming an unskilled laborer for what is being done by a rich cabal. Kiev is nothing but a pawn trying to survive.
Invade the Ukraine already.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_gst-Ryh3g
So buy OGZPY?
I will be curious to see what OGZPY does today. It sold down last week, probably insiders who knew what was coming. I sold Thursday because I did not think it was acting right vis-a-vis Iraq.
OGZPY would be a buy here, at 2 p/e; and at a 1 p/e which it may well see. I am in no rush; things are very tuchy right now. It's a great value.
I was thinking the same thing. It's has a very un-American-like PE Ratio. I will look for a hammer formation off the multi-month support.
Wake me up when Russia sets up a no-fly zone over Ukraine
I don't think they would put up a NFZ unless the UNSC at least votes on it. If the US vetoes ten they might do it anyway. Putin has shown that he is pretty dedicated to doing overt actions within the bounds of international law.
All you Putin haters can say what you will at that. They provided clear and sound reasoning to both accept the independence of Crimea and the voluntary entrance of Crimea into their country.
@ your 2nd paragraph: Yes they did. The standards were extremely low and most likely there was outside interference (little green men?). The only reason they came off looking clean in any way is because the western leaders acted like such baffoons instead of countering with something like demanding international observers and full journalistic access. Instead they condemned the actions outright and as such forfeited all access and ability to show the voting was rigged (or not) and so on.
I do not like Putin. He is not a good guy. He is smarter than our guys. He is smart enough to ensure that his corruption investigators jump from windows when they are no longer useful. Our guys actually think people are dumb enough to believe that the government does not archive and backup all emails at the IRS and even when they do it takes years to fish them out of the system. On second thought...
The ramifications of this move by Russia are massive and will imeditaly effect all of Europe. The idea of America getting involved or jumping into a war in Ukraine would have been hard to imagine a few years ago. As I write this the potential for this to escalate into a major shooting war is real. Allowing events to deteriorate into a major war or possibly into what some see as World War III is becoming a reality.
As insane as it appears this could become the final outcome. The location of this as a military confrontation is right in Putin's backyard and this is a strong advantage for Russia. It is silly to think Putin and Russia will back down. This means poking the bear is not a smart move. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/war-in-ukraine-bad-idea_26.html
'Americans' are looking for war in Ukraine?
.
Another confirmation (not that any is needed at this point) that Ukraine junta is 'american':
"They lost their lives because they defended men and women, children and the elderly who found themselves in a situation facing a threat to be killed by invaders and sponsored by them subhumans. First, we will commemorate the heroes by wiping out those who killed them and then by cleaning our land from the evil."
-- Arsenic Yatsenyuk, Nuland-appointed prime minister of Kiev junta
'Americans' are spreading 'americanism'. No news.
What relation with 'americans' looking for war in Ukraine?
'Americans' do not look for war in Ukraine.
'Americans' do not look for war in Ukraine? Time to get on the page.
Perpetual war is an integrated to 'americanism' feature. Should not require repeation as it is not a piece of news to any one.
Ukraine is pre-'american', reads that blobbing up is in the process but not giving yet full capacitance.
Kiev junta displays eagerness of duplicity. Preaching peace while artillerant shelling of homes, schools, hospitals. Tell they are fighting terror while shooting white phosphorated shells and dropping clustered bombs on civilians areas.
This will soon make Ukraine proto-'american'. One might infer a good start.
Not good enough for 'americans'. 'Americans' are impatients and want instant results. War in Ukraine is 'american' blobbing accelerant. Makes the unweak into weaks, makes the unpoor into poors.
The famous 'american' racket of extorting the weak, farming the poor is lokking for expansion in Ukraine bigtime. When running an extortion and farming racket, bigger than the biggest is not big enough. You want increasing fields of weaks and poors to fuel the endeavor.
War in Ukraine is the petrol poured on the 'american' extortion/farming fire.
Perpetual war is indeed 'american'
Does it mean global war?
No, immediate to anyone who can face 'americanism'
There are multiple ongoing wars so the criterion of perpetual war is met without Ukraine.
As for the rest (that is submitted to the same remark: impossibility to face 'americanism'), 'americans' can develop their business of farming the poor, extorting the weak in Ukraine without resorting to war.
Actually, in the first stage, 'americans' do not rely on war to establish their business.
An 'american' that would grow a spine and be able to face 'americanism' is something so rare you'll have to kill him/her and stuff her/him to put into a museum...
An 'american' farmed poor citizen being stuffed to put into a museum will need a crisply ironed shirt for display purpose. This is a 'americanism' opportunity for you to blob up to 'citizenism' criterionism.
Hunter Biden needed something to do.
Oh yeah, and Bruce needed to pimp his blog. It seems the click-count from ZH is way down.
Let Hunter fight. Americans do not want a war.
Send Hunter to Cambodia, the mob there has use for him.
Nuland is American. Let her go and fight.
AHA!!! EUROPE NOW HAS RUSSIA BY THE BALLS!!!
And dares not to let them go.
I thought Nobel Prize winner Obama already solved this issue...what???...he went golfing instead?
As long as he is golfing we have nothing to fear, right?
I have a great fear that Obama will try to sell a workout video. His workout routine make Richard Simmons look like Rich Froning.
this will be considered an act of war by the we......,i mean, uhhh, the usa. curious, they didn't think it was an act of war when the usa, brits and the shell guys cut japan off for less reason.
The world needs to be pay as you go !!!!
the usa should pay for ukraine's natty in perpetuity. we pay for everything else in the world with worthless clownbux, why not? [/sarc]
So does everyone else it seems. As long as we are playing poker with a bunch of cheats and cheating ourselves we should at least be using the clownbux to buy real stuff like land and mineral rights. Instead we pay of things that are disposable (chinese crap) and consumable (oil).
No ticket, no laundry.
Roll on Ms Lagarde and her open IMF cheque(loan)book.
Paying cash? That's unAmerican.
Besides, how are they going to resell the excess gas at a profit to the rest of Europe if they are paying the same price?
EU pays for its own gas.
Ukraine doesn't buy and then re-sell the EU-purchased gas.
Ukraine has only to pay for its own gas.
Looks like Ukraine may be able to purchase at least $3 billion a year for itself if it would honestly just pass through/transit the EU gas.
According to Wikipedia:
"Ukraine remains the main transit route for Russian natural gas sold to Europe, which earns Ukraine about $3 billion a year in transit fees, making it the country’s most lucrative export service."
Gazprom says "no gas for you"
Russia has a legit reason to turn off the gas.
Russian's back Putin 100%.
No they don't.
Russia is divided right now. There are those who see Putin as God. And there are those who simply can't imagine anything good from Russia.
The centrists in Russia, those who think Putin is good in some ways bad in others, are getting squeezed between the two groups.
The 'official' position in Russia is that Putin's popularity is higher than ever...and it is with the first group. The second group and the centrists are simply excluded from the 'official' news.
There are also reports of 'official' reprisals against those who criticize Putin.
Putin is not a white hat guy, but at least he is not intentionally driving his country over a cliff, as some people we know.
Putin is Nationalist.
He protects his people from Rothschild banksters.
Americans admire a solid Nationalist.
Keep dreaming gcjohns. Putins popularity is double that of the Mulatto Messiah. As for official reprisals, just try exercising your first amendment rights in front of any bank in the USSA.
Thats $13.50 a million BTU's if I am punchin gthat right.... Wholesale. YIKES......
Groundhog Day
The Queen has no intention of winning this war.
He's driving America 100 mph down a dead end street.
He knows it too.
He doesn't care because he hates America.
I wish the military would wake up and stop this insanity.
what he said^
I have not been able to figure out why the military hasn't stopped this yet. Especially at the border.
Top brass must have an excellent benefits plan.
Everyone is paid off.
Soon that gas line will be scrap metal....it sells for about a dollar a pound....they can sell it to China...they buy scrap metal
Russian nuclear sub. 16 missiles (missile range 9,000km) each 6 warheads and 4 decoys ....160 objects to shoot down.....total of 14,400 kiloton per submarine. Hiroshima was a 16kilton bomb.
So.....you wanna start a hot war with Russia....better make sure you get all those subs as well.
Sorry Kina.
That works both ways.
Sorry about what? Global destruction? I am sorry too. The world has gone insane.
Putin should demand any future payments in gold.
I would lol so hard.
If Putin wants to replace the corrupt fiat money regime then that is EXACTLY what he MUST do.
If Putin does not demand payment in Gold it means he does NOT WANT TO REPLACE the fiat money regime, but only shuffle which fiat is the king.