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Four Dimensions to the FOMC Meeting

Marc To Market's picture




 

The FOMC meeting is the week's highlight even though policy outcome seems a foregone conclusion.  It will continue with the tapering course that Bernanke put on the Fed on before he left.  However, there are more moving parts than usual, and it is worth reviewing.
 
Essentially, there are four elements of the FOMC meeting:  composition, statement, forecasts and press conference. 
 
Composition
 
Conventional wisdom holds that the Fed differs from the ECB in that it has two mandates instead of one and focuses on core inflation rather than headline inflation.  We argue these are superficial differences.  It is ironic, though,  how easy, even now, that the Fed's third mandate--financial stability--is not included.   In any event, the Fed takes into account headline inflation and the ECB does not ignore core inflation. 

The more significant difference we argue is that the ECB has a small governing board, and the national central banks are more numerous.  The Federal Reserve has a strong central governing board and weaker representation of the regional presidents.  However, because of arguably excessive partisanship in congress, there the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has been understaffed.  Even with the latest confirmations there are two vacancies on the seven-member board.   This has given the regional presidents more attention, and their views tend to be more extreme as the record of dissents shows. 
 
Generally speaking, the composition changes have led most to see a slight dovish tilt.  The retirement of Stein, who was seen as to the hawkish side of the narrow spectrum of the ECB and the arrival of Brainard, a perceived dove, is the source of the judgment.  We demur and suggest the Board of Governors remain pragmatic centrists.   While there may be fifty shades of gray, in this context gray may be gray.   And what does it really mean to be dovish amid a winding down of QE3+ and preparing for a normalization of monetary policy?   
 
There has been some suggestion that Brainard having just been confirmed late yesterday may not be ready to participate in the forecasting exercise.  This may not matter when it comes to the crunching the numbers. 

Statement 
 
The economy has largely unfolded as the Federal Reserve expected since the April meeting.  The headwinds evident in Q1 were perhaps more than the FOMC anticipated, but the factors were transitory as it suggested, and growth has rebounded well.  The labor market has continued its gradual improvement, but broader indicators suggest that slack remains.   The housing sector continues to disappoint, and business investment remains soft.  Some minor tweak of this assessment may be in the statement. 

The forward guidance that see interest rates remaining low for "a considerable" period of time after the asset purchase program ends is likely to remain.   The Fed will most certainly announce another $10 bln of tapering to bring the asset purchases to $35 bln a month through the end of July, when it will taper another $10 bln.  The Fed will argue that accommodation is still necessary. 
 
Forecasts

There is a high degree of uncertainty about the economic outlook.  Consider what we have already experienced this year.  When Q1 GDP was initially estimated, it grew a miniscule 0.1%.  That was revised to a 1% contraction, and now it appears set for another sharp downward revision following the recent consumer services spending report.  However, there is considerably less uncertainty about the Fed ceasing asset purchases later this year. 

So, arguing backwards, organizational behavior, if not consistency, suggest that in order to change policy, Fed officials have to believe that it is approaching its mandates.  To be clear, these mandate are not growth per se, but full employment and stable prices.  This is what the forecasts are likely to reflect. 

First, dismal Q1 GDP is going to force the Fed to cut this year's forecasts from the 2.8-3.0% expected in March.  The IMF can a preview of what to expect when it announced yesterday was cutting US growth from 2.8% to 2.0%.  The Fed may also take advantage of the opportunity to lower its 2015 and 2016 forecasts as well.  The issue here is that the Fed has habitually been more optimistic than the market and has consistently revised down its forecasts.  The central tendency for 2015 was at 3.0-3.2%, which seems to be on the high side, for example.  The combination of slower labor market growth and lower productivity translates into prospects for sub-3% growth on a sustained basis. 

Second, if the Fed has been too optimistic on growth, it has not been optimistic enough on employment.  In March, it offered a central tendency on of 6.1-6.3% for 2014 unemployment.  In May unemployment stood at 6.3%.    Seemingly paradoxically, while the Fed cuts its growth forecasts, it will reduce its unemployment forecasts.  The lower end of the range is likely to be 5.8-5.9%.  There may be a knock-on effect on the 2015 forecast of 5.6-5.9% as well. 

Third, the core PCE deflator forecast may be tweaked higher.  The central tendency in both the December 2013 and March 2014 forecasting exercises put it at 1.4-1.6% this year.  It stood at 1.4% in April.  A small upward adjustment seems warranted.  Benchmark effects alone will likely see core PCE firm. 

Press Conference 

Yellen's press conference in March will be remembered for her momentary lapse from the strategic ambiguity and the use of purposely vague words like "considerable period."   Yellen will likely emphasize that the Federal Reserve continues to believe accommodation is needed. 

After the Bank of England Governor appeared to shift from a dovish to a bearish forward guidance stance, many observers wonder if Yellen will play the same card.  Color us highly skeptical.  Some measures of the UK labor market show greater recovery than the US and its housing market is considerably stronger.    The UK economy also did not contract in Q1, while the US contraction could have been close to 2% on an annualized basis.  

Carney and other central bankers have tried to play up forward guidance, but it is not really that different from what central banks have long done; namely help shape business and investor expectations.  It was never a commitment, and it always has been flawed by what economists euphemistically call "time inconsistencies."    We expect Yellen to stay on message, the tapering continues in a measured way to ensure the economic recovery remains on track. 

The December 2015 Fed funds futures implied an effective funds rate of 71 bp on April 30, when the FOMC last met.  At the end of May, it stood at 55 bp.  As the 2-day FOMC meeting gets underway, the contract implies a 77 bp effective funds rate at the end of next year, which is essentially two hikes.  Given that the dot plot in March showed a 1% Fed funds rate by the end of next year, it seems prudent that the implied rate has increased ahead of this FOMC meeting.  However, we would not be surprised if the dot-plot eases back to 75 bp (perhaps with the help of the changed composition and the steep contraction in Q1 GDP and the same factors that prompted the IMF yesterday to suggest the Fed has room to keep the funds rate near zero beyond current expectations).

 

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Tue, 06/17/2014 - 22:02 | 4867615 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Anybody Ever Slip and call Janet "Yeltsin"? Like for Boris Yeltsin.

Just might fit. Like calling Pelosi a Nattering Nabob. Or calling Congress "nattering nabobs of nepotism."

Joke: What is the Difference Between the Politburo of the USSR & the USA?

Answer: Not sure. Maybe in the USA they have to hide the Members which are either Extremely Rich or Members of the Business Community. We know we have a Star Chamber. We know TBTF Bankers Rotate through the Treasury & Federal Reserve. We know Bankers serve on the Presidents Staff (unintended Pun). We know Congressional Intelligence Committees are in the dark, corrupted, or inept. Either there is a US Politburo like the USSR had, OR we have a Fascist Government.

We have a command and control economy, Central Government, where the Federal Government runs the Economy, Pick Corporation to get Contracts & Relief, Where these same Corporations "Own" large aspects of our Universities,

AND where the Premiers make statements of what we should believe rather than illuminate and enlighten.

Fact:

A) More people go bankrupt from Health Care Debt than any other
B) 90,000 People die in Hospitals each year from Adverse Drug Reactions
C) Bankruptcy Laws have become even stricter since 2005 for Individuals, whereas Corporations get more and more bailouts and if you go into business you can fail over and over again and apparently regularly get new loans
D) Currently Corporate Tax Rate works out to be 14.4%, this seems to indicate a change in Business culture where corporations are seen as more important than individuals even though it is individuals that fight wars and corporations can never perform an act of "Patriotism", such an act of charity toward a war would be called "building loyalty"

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 19:01 | 4867161 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

 Janet Yellen has been head of the Federal Reserve bank long enough that we no longer need to speculate as to her job performance. As we begin to critique her ability to perform we must remember perception is often just as important as reality. Another issue that comes into play is how you stack up or compare to the person who held the position previously, this often extends to style as much as it does to substance.

As expected it appears Janet Yellen has chosen to take us down the same the rabbit hole as Bernanke on a journey to prove that if we just continue doing what is not working, all will turn out fine. Caution, this path leads down, and down, and down, farther and deeper then most can ever imagine. If asked to critique "Old Yellar" now playing in theaters everywhere I would by way of the reasoning above have to give her the maximum two solid thumbs down. More on this subject in the article below.

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/yellens-job-critique.html

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 17:02 | 4866730 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Fed officials have to believe that it is approaching its mandates.  To be clear, these mandate are not growth per se, but full employment and stable prices.  This is what the forecasts are likely to reflect."

 

A stable price is ZERO % inflation.  At 2%, the FED will be well beyond its mandate to prevent price increases.

The FED is no where near full employment, with 92 million not working and an employment participation rate in the toilet.  The FED mandates are a HUGE FAIL.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 16:09 | 4866517 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

There are also four possible outcomes for tomorrow and they are as follows.

 

S&P up 0.25%

S&P up 0.50%

S&P up 0.75%

S&P up 1.00%

 

There is no scenario which would cause the market to go down, none; any news is good news.  Also no news is good news. 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 18:23 | 4867048 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"There is no scenario which would cause the market to go down, none; any news is good news."

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was confident at one time that housing prices, on national average, would not decline on a year-over-year basis.  That was one of several prognostications he got wrong.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 14:56 | 4866226 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

1. Herd these motherfuckers in a big room.

2. Back up a truck to the front door, thus blocking it, and in the bed of it, lies one pissed off Gulf War veteran that has had his legs blown off - and equip him with a water cooled, Thompson sub machine gun - with o....say...50+ clips....

3. Lock the doors. All of them. Barracade the bastards.

4. Commence firing...fire at will.

5. Come in with pressure washers after to clean up the goo.....

The end of the Fed...for good!

A pleasant fiction...I can dream still can't I?

dammit!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 19:37 | 4867261 old naughty
old naughty's picture

why waste the 50+ ?

Just drop them in fuk-u-island.

so their half-lives are unpredictably extended.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 13:23 | 4865700 NaN
NaN's picture

Thanks for the report, M2M.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 12:04 | 4865373 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Da blah, da blah, da blahhhh.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 13:01 | 4865602 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Is the Fourth Dimension the one Tinkerbelle operates in; or is it the one with the rainbow colored Unicorns? This shit is seriously hard to keep up with.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 16:26 | 4865139 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:06 | 4865058 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I'll just leave this here:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-16/keynesian-jabberwocky-gets-downright-dumb

p.s. - There is no economic recovery.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 12:11 | 4865394 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

They'll be a bandersnatch beaming on this one sure.  Depressive.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!