Stick A Fork In Yet Another "Housing Recovery": Starts Tumble, Multi-Family Permits Collapse Most Since Lehman

Tyler Durden's picture


Blame it on the... spring?

Moments ago, in addition to reporting CPI numbers which showed that the Fed has already met and surpassed its 2.0% inflation target (credible or not), the Dept of HUD released Housing starts and Permits data for the month of May. It was, in a word, disappointing. It was so disappointing in fact, that both housing starts and permits not only missed expectations, but tumbled from the previous month by the most since January and the great "Polar Vortex" which was the kitchen sink used to explain the collapse in US GDP in Q1. Perhaps it was the early arrival of El Nino?

In deatil: May Housing starts, expected to print at 1030K, tumbled from a revised April print of 1071K to just 1001K.

This was driven by an almost equal decline in both single and multi-family units, which means that it is not only Wall Street investors pulling out of the rental housing (aka multifam) market, but builders continuing to be skeptical about the single-family housing market.

To say that this roundly refutes the soaring NAHB index is an understatement, because while on one hand builders say they have not been more confident since Lehman, their actions show something vastly different.

With permits, the situation was even worse: the headline number was supposed to print at 1050K, a modest decline from the pre-revised 1080K. Instead, not only was April revised lower to 1059K, but the actual headline number tumbled by 68K to 991K. This was the first triple digit permit number since January, and the biggest drop also since the winter when it was all the polar Vortex' fault.


What caused this collapse? Simple. The housing bubble, at least as observed by Wall Street, is well and firmly over, because while housing permits for single family units posted a modest increase from 597K to 619K, the monthly collapse in multi-family permits, which crashed from 436K to 346K, or a drop of 89K was the single largest monthly drop since, drumroll, Lehman.


Don't cry for the Blackstones of the world though: after giving an artificial impression for the past two years that housing was recovering (all thanks to the Fed's cheap money and Rent-To-REO program), Wall Street's landlords, having taken over the US, are now moving on to greener pastures, like Spain.

As for the US housing market, stick a fork in it.

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Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:14 | 4864520 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Not to worry, Goldman has Q2 GDP growing by 3.8%. More GM recalls will ensure that.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:23 | 4864577 JJdog
JJdog's picture

all weather related, when it's warm and sunny out, people are not going to house shopping, simple, Ask Yellen, she will confirm that. and you can ask Steve Liesman from CNBC, he will double confirm that! Lies Man! get it right! 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:28 | 4864605 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

the real facts behind this mess......hold on i have a call coming in.....ok im back, that was my real estate agent telling me this is the best time to buy and make sure my offers are 10% over asking, she doesnt want to see me lose out on a deal...who am i to question these experts...

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:34 | 4864631 knukles
knukles's picture

These are the geniuses bringing you your future.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:41 | 4864664 pods
pods's picture

"The First Lady recommended that schools make decisions for children because their parents struggle to feed their children well. "

Know it all cunt.  


Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:11 | 4864789 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is the slave mentality that master can do it better so we should let master make all our decisions.  Thant may apply to her.  But I have grown to realize the government and school system is full of complete dumbasses. 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:15 | 4864817 madcows
madcows's picture

At both the student and administrative levels.  There are some fucking stoopit kids in school.  And some seriously questionable adults.  Those who can, do, and those that can't teach.  Not that they're all bad.  But I'd say a good third of the teachers and administrators i've met are complete imbeciles.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:21 | 4864848 Shad_ow
Shad_ow's picture

Agreed.  While some are excellent teachers and humans, many are imbecillic control freaks on power trips who couldn't compete in the real world.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:13 | 4865102 JRobby
JRobby's picture

We are now 40 + years out from when the Trilateral Commission (now Bilderberger's) concluded that the US poulation was becoming too educated to be managed effectively.

So where is the surprise at where we have ended up?


Think for yourself, question authority

Throughout human history, as our species has faced the frightening, terrorizing fact that we do not know who we are, or where we are going in this ocean of chaos, it has been the authorities — the political, the religious, the educational authorities — who attempted to comfort us by giving us order, rules, regulations, informing — forming in our minds — their view of reality. To think for yourself you must question authority and learn how to put yourself in a state of vulnerable open-mindedness, chaotic, confused vulnerability to inform yourself.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:41 | 4864668 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Blame it on least it rhymes

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:42 | 4864670 madcows
madcows's picture

I saw that headline.  So, what, only the government is smart enough to feed us?  I mean, holy crap.  You're smart enough to get into Harvard (not smart enough to not go to Harvard, though) and you can't feed yourself a healthy diet?  It's so confusing and overwhelming.... we need government supplied shoppers and cooks and feeders to take care of us.  talk about depressing.   She's totalling doubling down on stupid.  No, no.  I'm highly educated at an elite university, and I can't even feed my kids.  We REALLY need the school lunch program to be expanded to the homes... breakfast, lunch and dinner.  Here, let me spoon feed you.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:52 | 4864712 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

f'ing spring.... messes up everything.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:03 | 4864763 toady
toady's picture

My brothers new girlfriend feeds him. She sits there holding the plate, putting food in his mouth. It's weird.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:38 | 4864940 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

What's she doing when you are not around?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:48 | 4864982 TVP
TVP's picture

I need to find me a woman like that.  Pronto.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:37 | 4865213 Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

The LSAT tests analytical ability and supposedly Harvard only takes the highest scorers.  What gives?  And after completing law school your ability should be even more developed, so that you can read information on a subject like nutrition and be able to make an educated conclusion.  It is not rocket science.  What were here grades, because this statement makes her sound like a complete imbecile?



Tue, 06/17/2014 - 14:01 | 4865914 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Did you forget the affirmative action exceptions to the highest scores?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 16:14 | 4866538 madcows
madcows's picture

seriously.  the girl can't feed her children.  i mean, geez, look at how fat and stupid this country is.  she has to be so stupid that she is in a coma or drools.  even the dumbest folks now how to overfeed themselves.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:45 | 4864680 madcows
madcows's picture

Realtors, the only people that can simultaneously get the seller the most money for his house, and negotiate the best price for the buyer.  Overpaid, used car salesmen.  I'd like to see Larry Yun hung by has ball bag.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 12:04 | 4865374 Eastwood
Eastwood's picture

Susanne researched this! Buy buy buy and do it now or Susanne will bad mouth you to her whole gaggle of friends and you'll be sleeping on the couch for years!

If this commercial from the mid 2000's doesn't show you what's wrong, you should be beaten. Can't believe they actually made this! If it wasn't so sad it would be hysterical.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:22 | 4864529 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Who wants to buy a house when the weather has been so nice lately? Everybody is outside playing. There, see how easy that was?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:23 | 4864574 Cangaroo.TNT
Cangaroo.TNT's picture

Add tents to the housing stats.  Problem solved.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:41 | 4864666 nink
nink's picture

Don't forget to count all the cardboard boxes and any location that doesn't have homeless spikes installed yet.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:53 | 4865307 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Location, location, location.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:59 | 4864757 edifice
edifice's picture

If you add large cars, vans, RVs, longbed trucks, etc. into the Housing numbers, you would kill two birds with one stone. Increased auto demand, AND housing demand!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:40 | 4864656 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

The economy has to work through a surplus of habitable overpasses first.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:58 | 4864749 edifice
edifice's picture

In Colorado, most of the overpasses in the cities were re-designed, to prevent bums from sleeping under them. The old Cold War era ones looked rather comfy!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:12 | 4864796 813kml
813kml's picture

The BofA reverse mortgage on my new Palm Beach estate just came through, $0 down and they are paying me monthly based on projected property values 30 years hence.  The fine print requires me to recycle 50% of monthly proceeds back into BofA stawk but that's OK since I don't want my cash cow going the way of Lehman.

The balloon will be hefty, but I took out life insurance on all of my illegal alien gardeners.  Lawn mowin' and leaf blowin' is dangerous work, I foresee many "accidents" in the years to come.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:14 | 4864530 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

The only new houses needed are for the new crop of illegals.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:51 | 4864706 curbjob
curbjob's picture

Nope ... they just build them.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:59 | 4864752 autofixer
autofixer's picture

What is the English word for: Favela? 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:12 | 4865098 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture


Tue, 06/17/2014 - 13:03 | 4865607 twh99
twh99's picture



The hood?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 18:25 | 4867054 Kprime
Kprime's picture

I don't know why they are not shipping all the south american inflow directly to detroit where all the empty homes are.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:15 | 4864531 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

my fork never came out of the housing "market"

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:16 | 4864538 shermacman
shermacman's picture

The Polar Vortex that destroyed the entire world's economy last winter has been replaced by the Pollen Vortex this spring. The Pollen Votex threatens to suck the life out of The Summer Of Recovery. We must fight Gullible Climate Warming Change. Only Leonardo DiCaprio and teh Kardashians can save us now.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:16 | 4864539 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

A Russian invasion in Oekraine on the other side of the world has prevented American's to start building houses.


Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:24 | 4864582 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

i thought it was fear of the pending el nino?  i lose sleep every night when i think about the warmer pacific waters creeping closer to s america.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:17 | 4864546 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Oh no. Winter is coming soon.  

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:37 | 4864646 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

Summer is even worse. Who wants to buy a house when it's 100 degrees outside, plus global warming for god's sake.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:49 | 4864700 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Yeah, give me three feet of snow any day for house hunting!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:54 | 4864724 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Its already winter somewhere...

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:18 | 4864548 edifice
edifice's picture

"Blame It On The Rain"

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:19 | 4864551 zeronero
zeronero's picture

Tell me more about this please:

which means that it is not only Wall Street investors pulling out of the rental housing (aka multifam) market

Is Homes4Rent a screaming short?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:19 | 4864556 Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

nahh, its the fifa's fault.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:20 | 4864561 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Buy a sailboat, get some bow candy and head for tropical waters...

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:23 | 4864572 nink
nink's picture

I guess they will spin this as home investors are moving their funds to the stock market because of the booming economy. Everyone know's it's a much better investment to buy shares in facebook then a family home.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:24 | 4864579 madcows
madcows's picture

Summer of Recovery 6?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:25 | 4864589 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Housing bubble #2 (Fed induced) busting. Max out debt eventually working through the system where the sheeple realize they have been scammed again.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:26 | 4864595 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Crank up zero down 100 year mgts. To anyone that can fog a mirror, or not. The how much a month crowd would be camping out to "snap" them up!

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