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Stick A Fork In Yet Another "Housing Recovery": Starts Tumble, Multi-Family Permits Collapse Most Since Lehman

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Blame it on the... spring?

Moments ago, in addition to reporting CPI numbers which showed that the Fed has already met and surpassed its 2.0% inflation target (credible or not), the Dept of HUD released Housing starts and Permits data for the month of May. It was, in a word, disappointing. It was so disappointing in fact, that both housing starts and permits not only missed expectations, but tumbled from the previous month by the most since January and the great "Polar Vortex" which was the kitchen sink used to explain the collapse in US GDP in Q1. Perhaps it was the early arrival of El Nino?

In deatil: May Housing starts, expected to print at 1030K, tumbled from a revised April print of 1071K to just 1001K.

This was driven by an almost equal decline in both single and multi-family units, which means that it is not only Wall Street investors pulling out of the rental housing (aka multifam) market, but builders continuing to be skeptical about the single-family housing market.

To say that this roundly refutes the soaring NAHB index is an understatement, because while on one hand builders say they have not been more confident since Lehman, their actions show something vastly different.

With permits, the situation was even worse: the headline number was supposed to print at 1050K, a modest decline from the pre-revised 1080K. Instead, not only was April revised lower to 1059K, but the actual headline number tumbled by 68K to 991K. This was the first triple digit permit number since January, and the biggest drop also since the winter when it was all the polar Vortex' fault.

 

What caused this collapse? Simple. The housing bubble, at least as observed by Wall Street, is well and firmly over, because while housing permits for single family units posted a modest increase from 597K to 619K, the monthly collapse in multi-family permits, which crashed from 436K to 346K, or a drop of 89K was the single largest monthly drop since, drumroll, Lehman.

 

Don't cry for the Blackstones of the world though: after giving an artificial impression for the past two years that housing was recovering (all thanks to the Fed's cheap money and Rent-To-REO program), Wall Street's landlords, having taken over the US, are now moving on to greener pastures, like Spain.

As for the US housing market, stick a fork in it.

 

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Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:14 | 4864520 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Not to worry, Goldman has Q2 GDP growing by 3.8%. More GM recalls will ensure that.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:23 | 4864577 JJdog
JJdog's picture

all weather related, when it's warm and sunny out, people are not going to house shopping, simple, Ask Yellen, she will confirm that. and you can ask Steve Liesman from CNBC, he will double confirm that! Lies Man! get it right! 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:28 | 4864605 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

the real facts behind this mess......hold on i have a call coming in.....ok im back, that was my real estate agent telling me this is the best time to buy and make sure my offers are 10% over asking, she doesnt want to see me lose out on a deal...who am i to question these experts...

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:34 | 4864631 knukles
knukles's picture

These are the geniuses bringing you your future.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/06/16/Michelle-Obama-I-Coul...

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:41 | 4864664 pods
pods's picture

"The First Lady recommended that schools make decisions for children because their parents struggle to feed their children well. "

Know it all cunt.  

pods

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:11 | 4864789 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is the slave mentality that master can do it better so we should let master make all our decisions.  Thant may apply to her.  But I have grown to realize the government and school system is full of complete dumbasses. 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:15 | 4864817 madcows
madcows's picture

At both the student and administrative levels.  There are some fucking stoopit kids in school.  And some seriously questionable adults.  Those who can, do, and those that can't teach.  Not that they're all bad.  But I'd say a good third of the teachers and administrators i've met are complete imbeciles.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:21 | 4864848 Shad_ow
Shad_ow's picture

Agreed.  While some are excellent teachers and humans, many are imbecillic control freaks on power trips who couldn't compete in the real world.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:13 | 4865102 JRobby
JRobby's picture

We are now 40 + years out from when the Trilateral Commission (now Bilderberger's) concluded that the US poulation was becoming too educated to be managed effectively.

So where is the surprise at where we have ended up?

 

Think for yourself, question authority

Throughout human history, as our species has faced the frightening, terrorizing fact that we do not know who we are, or where we are going in this ocean of chaos, it has been the authorities — the political, the religious, the educational authorities — who attempted to comfort us by giving us order, rules, regulations, informing — forming in our minds — their view of reality. To think for yourself you must question authority and learn how to put yourself in a state of vulnerable open-mindedness, chaotic, confused vulnerability to inform yourself.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:41 | 4864668 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Blame it on Uk-rain...at least it rhymes

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:42 | 4864670 madcows
madcows's picture

I saw that headline.  So, what, only the government is smart enough to feed us?  I mean, holy crap.  You're smart enough to get into Harvard (not smart enough to not go to Harvard, though) and you can't feed yourself a healthy diet?  It's so confusing and overwhelming.... we need government supplied shoppers and cooks and feeders to take care of us.  talk about depressing.   She's totalling doubling down on stupid.  No, no.  I'm highly educated at an elite university, and I can't even feed my kids.  We REALLY need the school lunch program to be expanded to the homes... breakfast, lunch and dinner.  Here, let me spoon feed you.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:52 | 4864712 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

f'ing spring.... messes up everything.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:03 | 4864763 toady
toady's picture

My brothers new girlfriend feeds him. She sits there holding the plate, putting food in his mouth. It's weird.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:38 | 4864940 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

What's she doing when you are not around?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:48 | 4864982 TVP
TVP's picture

I need to find me a woman like that.  Pronto.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:37 | 4865213 Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

The LSAT tests analytical ability and supposedly Harvard only takes the highest scorers.  What gives?  And after completing law school your ability should be even more developed, so that you can read information on a subject like nutrition and be able to make an educated conclusion.  It is not rocket science.  What were here grades, because this statement makes her sound like a complete imbecile?

 

 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 14:01 | 4865914 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Did you forget the affirmative action exceptions to the highest scores?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 16:14 | 4866538 madcows
madcows's picture

seriously.  the girl can't feed her children.  i mean, geez, look at how fat and stupid this country is.  she has to be so stupid that she is in a coma or drools.  even the dumbest folks now how to overfeed themselves.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:45 | 4864680 madcows
madcows's picture

Realtors, the only people that can simultaneously get the seller the most money for his house, and negotiate the best price for the buyer.  Overpaid, used car salesmen.  I'd like to see Larry Yun hung by has ball bag.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 12:04 | 4865374 Eastwood
Eastwood's picture

Susanne researched this! Buy buy buy and do it now or Susanne will bad mouth you to her whole gaggle of friends and you'll be sleeping on the couch for years!

If this commercial from the mid 2000's doesn't show you what's wrong, you should be beaten. Can't believe they actually made this! If it wasn't so sad it would be hysterical.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPIxrzmatq0

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:22 | 4864529 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Who wants to buy a house when the weather has been so nice lately? Everybody is outside playing. There, see how easy that was?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:23 | 4864574 Cangaroo.TNT
Cangaroo.TNT's picture

Add tents to the housing stats.  Problem solved.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:41 | 4864666 nink
nink's picture

Don't forget to count all the cardboard boxes and any location that doesn't have homeless spikes installed yet. https://www.google.ca/search?q=homeless+spikes&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:53 | 4865307 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Location, location, location.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:59 | 4864757 edifice
edifice's picture

If you add large cars, vans, RVs, longbed trucks, etc. into the Housing numbers, you would kill two birds with one stone. Increased auto demand, AND housing demand!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:40 | 4864656 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

The economy has to work through a surplus of habitable overpasses first.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:58 | 4864749 edifice
edifice's picture

In Colorado, most of the overpasses in the cities were re-designed, to prevent bums from sleeping under them. The old Cold War era ones looked rather comfy!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:12 | 4864796 813kml
813kml's picture

The BofA reverse mortgage on my new Palm Beach estate just came through, $0 down and they are paying me monthly based on projected property values 30 years hence.  The fine print requires me to recycle 50% of monthly proceeds back into BofA stawk but that's OK since I don't want my cash cow going the way of Lehman.

The balloon will be hefty, but I took out life insurance on all of my illegal alien gardeners.  Lawn mowin' and leaf blowin' is dangerous work, I foresee many "accidents" in the years to come.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:14 | 4864530 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

The only new houses needed are for the new crop of illegals.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:51 | 4864706 curbjob
curbjob's picture

Nope ... they just build them.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:59 | 4864752 autofixer
autofixer's picture

What is the English word for: Favela? 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:12 | 4865098 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

"Stockton"

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 13:03 | 4865607 twh99
twh99's picture

Watts?

 

The hood?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 18:25 | 4867054 Kprime
Kprime's picture

I don't know why they are not shipping all the south american inflow directly to detroit where all the empty homes are.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:15 | 4864531 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

my fork never came out of the housing "market"

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:16 | 4864538 shermacman
shermacman's picture

The Polar Vortex that destroyed the entire world's economy last winter has been replaced by the Pollen Vortex this spring. The Pollen Votex threatens to suck the life out of The Summer Of Recovery. We must fight Gullible Climate Warming Change. Only Leonardo DiCaprio and teh Kardashians can save us now.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:16 | 4864539 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

A Russian invasion in Oekraine on the other side of the world has prevented American's to start building houses.

ISN'T IT CLEAR??

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:24 | 4864582 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

i thought it was fear of the pending el nino?  i lose sleep every night when i think about the warmer pacific waters creeping closer to s america.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:17 | 4864546 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Oh no. Winter is coming soon.  

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:37 | 4864646 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

Summer is even worse. Who wants to buy a house when it's 100 degrees outside, plus global warming for god's sake.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:49 | 4864700 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Yeah, give me three feet of snow any day for house hunting!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:54 | 4864724 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Its already winter somewhere...

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:18 | 4864548 edifice
edifice's picture

"Blame It On The Rain"

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:19 | 4864551 zeronero
zeronero's picture

Tell me more about this please:

which means that it is not only Wall Street investors pulling out of the rental housing (aka multifam) market

Is Homes4Rent a screaming short?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:19 | 4864556 Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

nahh, its the fifa's fault.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:20 | 4864561 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Buy a sailboat, get some bow candy and head for tropical waters...
http://www.naturegirls.com/natural-nude-girls/wp-content/uploads/2008/05...
Nsfw

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:23 | 4864572 nink
nink's picture

I guess they will spin this as home investors are moving their funds to the stock market because of the booming economy. Everyone know's it's a much better investment to buy shares in facebook then a family home.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:24 | 4864579 madcows
madcows's picture

Summer of Recovery 6?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:25 | 4864589 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Housing bubble #2 (Fed induced) busting. Max out debt eventually working through the system where the sheeple realize they have been scammed again.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:26 | 4864595 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Crank up zero down 100 year mgts. To anyone that can fog a mirror, or not. The how much a month crowd would be camping out to "snap" them up!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:33 | 4864625 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Time to crank up the reverse mortgages on the elderly so that they help their grandkids on a down payment, regardless if the grandkid has a job, let alone a job that pays them enough.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 18:22 | 4867046 Kprime
Kprime's picture

can I get a reverse mortgage on my 70,000 vehicle (30K plus 8 years of interest, 70K total payments)

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:34 | 4864633 madcows
madcows's picture

I love the new chevy commercials..."  I lost my job, I drive a Chevy.  My home was foreclosed, I drive a Chevy.  Buy now, zero down. No income, no problem. " 

I actually, just bought a GMC product.  The pusher, I mean salesman's first question was "Well, what monthly payment are you looking for?  We could get you a 72 month loan if you'd like."  Awesome, a 72 month loan for a used vehicle.  Way to go, GMC.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:21 | 4865146 JRobby
JRobby's picture

HD was doing 86 month loans on the over priced, vibration a given, tighten all bolts before you ride, "open road of my youth" fix for boomers who were "payment sensitive"

 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:29 | 4864607 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Time for another tax credit for becoming a lifetime debt serf.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 18:07 | 4866995 Kprime
Kprime's picture

time for a housing cash for clunkers

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:32 | 4864616 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The reason for the reduction in home permits is that more people are looking to buy older homes for their nostalgic designs.

That was easy to make up.  I should'a been an economist at some bank.  I believe the above sentence would be worth $300k.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:33 | 4864623 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Die housing, die!  I'm not buying jack shit until the fraud, corruption, and lies reduce to a sane level.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:44 | 4864679 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

With the MERS clouded title issues, when would that be Col. ?

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 13:04 | 4865603 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

All the more reason to buy a piece of land and general contract your own house.  Cheaper and avoids the MERS issue.

EDIT:  It's not just a MERS issue.  There's the broken pool status, lender's being paid who aren't the actual title holder because of improper procedure.  Note too, most title companies don't provide MERS clouded title coverage either.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:33 | 4864624 MWizard
MWizard's picture

3 ways to become a frustrated investor. 1. Try to become perfect 2. Try to never lose. 3. Plan to make a specific amount of money in a specific period of time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6fZYR8_j5I 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:33 | 4864627 CerpherJoe
CerpherJoe's picture

BTFATH

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:35 | 4864636 RiskyBidness
RiskyBidness's picture

BTFD.......What else is there to do??  S&P 2000 and DOW 17,000 by July 4th weekend!  All is well.....move along!!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:45 | 4864682 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

It's Michael Jackson's fault:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkBS4zUjJZo

 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:53 | 4864710 hairball48
hairball48's picture

No worries. A couple good hurricanes this summer will destroy a bunch houses and other infrastructure. Then we can have another building boom!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:52 | 4864711 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

The freaks from B.L.A.M.E. love to spin the BS Excuse roulette wheel....

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 09:56 | 4864741 kw2012
kw2012's picture

Good THing Obama is flooding the country with illegals. I'm certain they will all go work for Bill Gates and become contributing members of society eager to purchase their first homes.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:12 | 4864795 yogibear
yogibear's picture

After the Federal Reserve's conversion to SDRs the illegals will able to buy more house with the Pesos.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:05 | 4864771 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly Housing Index jumped to 207 and fell sharply back to 200 - even the central banks couldn't keep the propped up.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-philly-housing-index-moves-sharp...

 

Keep an eye on the bond market - volume is drying up quickly.  Rates changes coming.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:16 | 4864823 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Yeah but cardboard box developments going up everywhere...  McBox!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:17 | 4864830 Ewtman
Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:22 | 4864856 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Um, excuse me, but, I am the barometer of the housing market, marking 59 months of living not only rent-free, but also tax-free and homeowner's insurance-free, thanks to CUNTryWIDE and BofA, who pay for everything in my foreclosed-upon-inherited 1642 sq. ft. home.

Just got a letter from BofA, saying that according to the terms of my (dead father's) mortgage, I must carry homeowner's insurance. Well, since I am not in any way, shape or form in agreement with said mortgage (and, BTW, where's the fucking NOTE, you morons?), I prefer not to insure, so BofA, in their letter, says that if they don't hear from me - for the fourth year in a row - they will apply homeowner's insurance at the cut-rate, discount, get-it-while-it's-hot price of a mere $1995.

This, my friends, is on a home appraised in 2009 at $81,500, well below the bank's appraisal of $120,000 which they undertook to swindle my dead father out of his money in 2007 (when he was actually still alive). At least now, the bank is addressing correspondence to "the Estate of" rather than to my dead father himself, so, I assume they are getting the drift of things.

I await the day the bank decides to move its foreclosure action forward, which, commenced in March, 2010, has not moved one iota, thanks to the courts in the great state of New York. I made sure to countersue before the SOL ran out, so... we go nowhere. When the bank makes a motion or does anything to try to get me out of the house (which, I believe they no longer want). I'll let everyone here on ZH know, because that may signal the true beginning of a housing "recovery."

However, I note with interest (not the bank kind, the intellectual kind), the many and various homes in my immediate area (around Rochester, NY) that are vacant and either for sale or just sitting, collecting dust, rodents, bugs, leaves, tall grass and odd looks from the neighbors. Supposedly, should the bank make motions to remove me from my current residence, I would ask them if I could relocate into one of the other homes in the area. I am prepared for the blank stares and/or stunned silence on the other end of the phone, but I am not prepared to move until December 2015, at which time a number of things will, or will be about to, occur. I will turn 62 and be eligible for a reverse mortgage (think of it... the bank could actually just deed back the property, put a reverse on it, await my death and then actually own it F&C), and the SOL on foreclosure will have run out (6 years). Since I would be making a motion for dismissal due to lack of prosecution, and there's some case law (your mileage may vary) that says a dismissal under such circumstances does not stop the clock on the SOL, I (me, me, and me) would be able to obtain - at some point - clear title.

When anything happens, I will let ZH readers know, so they can respond accordingly, either by buying or selling their massive real estate portfolios. Unfortunately, most real estate cannot be lost in a tragic boating accident, even though many homeowners claim to be "underwater."

Until next time, hookers and blow for everyone. Oh, yeah, and FREE HOMES FOR EVERYONE! EXCELSIOR!

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:21 | 4865147 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

FNE

u r my hero

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:23 | 4864861 Kickaha
Kickaha's picture

A large percentage of potential first time buyers just had to add a health insurance premium the size of a house payment to their budget.  Hardly anybody talked about the opportunity cost of Obamacare, but we are seeing it now.  Homes going unsold, restaurants shutting down, retail stores in the red, etc.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:30 | 4864908 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Extremely bullish! 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 10:47 | 4864978 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Here in my neck of the woods you only have to look at the number of concrete trucks on the road to see how this economy is doing. You used to pass three in a row and see them all the time until the Depression. Now you notice if one is on the road. 

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 11:17 | 4865119 starman
starman's picture

Can I take out a loan on my unborn grandchildren? Oh  I already did , sorry.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 12:33 | 4865490 adr
adr's picture

If you don't have the cash to pay for a $250k house in full, try to get a mortgage. It isn't happening.

I just got denied with a 785 and 25% down because I've only been at my new job for two months. The bank claims I need six months of employment

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 13:01 | 4865597 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

just a normal "everybody's on the beach this week" blip. Chart is just about to go out of sight signaling a strong recovery. Bend over and spread your cheeks, the recovery is coming fast.

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