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What Growth?

StalingradandPoorski's picture




 

So here we are yet again, another FOMC day, and more new all-time highs as Yellen goes on to say that all is well, the economy is growing (which according to the FED itself it is not), she doesn't see a bubble in the stock market, and that we still need more highly accommodative policy for years to come. The Fed has yet again tapered, reducing the rate of purchases by $10B to $35B/month. Yet the SPX exploded to the 20th new ATH this year, while bonds also made a move higher. The funniest part about the whole press confernce, after the release of the statement, was that nobody asked Yellen how the economy is still growing despite the following headline: 

  • FED: 2014 GDP GROWTH OF 2.1%-2.3% VS 2.8%-3.0% IN MARCH

 

 

 

 

GDP (tradingeconomics.com)

And the comedy doesn't end there. She continues by saying:

  • YELLEN UNSURE 'COMPLACENY' IS REASON FOR LOW VOLATILITY

So here is Yellen, saying that the low volatilty we are seeing across all markets, is not due to complacency. What is it due to then? Is she talking about the same markets that do not price in any risk, climb on a daily basis with no pullbacks, and rip higher on any chance of central bank intervention? Today we also saw the June VIX settlement, which came in at 11.74, making that the lowest print since Feb 2007. VIX cash also collapsed to Feb 2007 levels, closing at 10.61. We are truly doomed. Until then, just BTFATH's. 

 

Yellen Sees No Bubbles, and "doesn't see stock prices outside historic norms today"

SPX

 

CNN's Fear & Greed Index

 

Chart: @Not_Jim_Cramer

DIMES/SPX

 

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Thu, 06/19/2014 - 11:04 | 4873715 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"Yellen goes on to say that all is well, the economy is growing (which according to the FED itself it is not), she doesn't see a bubble in the stock market, and that we still need more highly accommodative policy for years to come."

Fungi and plants are more tuned in than fed heads...

Fed and its spawn--eat shite and die!

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:59 | 4873372 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

I'm tired of hearing about how the US economy is "growing". It is not growing, it is shrinking dramatically. If someone losing their job, is not working, but runs up debt more and more each year to support their lifestyle is growth, then ok we are growing.

The US topped out in 1999 and were it not for wars, unprecedented social spending and an outright move from capitalism to full blown centrally planned crony communism all done on the backs of future generations all markets would reflect a much different reality. If we had taken our medicine and let the economy contract naturally we would already be on the road to recovery. But no, the greedy mother fuckers with the power and the assets refuse to unclench their fists of their unearned and ill-gotten "wealth".

Youth of today must engage and get off YouTube for just 5 seconds or they face a very bleak future unlike anything we have seen in recent times. It will be up to them.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 11:22 | 4873797 aquarian1
aquarian1's picture

Yes the economy is not growing.

The US govt outsourced the US economy to China in 1990 when it gave a brtutal totalitarain regime "preferred trading status" which it did because the large corps and bacnks control the govt.

The Fed is privtely owned and run by the large banks for the benefit of the large banks (see Creature of Jeylk Isand). The Fed did not and never takes action for the interest of the economy - it is to benefit the banks, as seen by buying their toxic debt.

To say the youth must do something is silly.

The voting system in the US is a placebo so the masses think they live in a democracy.

Until the party system is eliminated (ie everyone runs for office as independants) and election campaigns limited to $100,000 and their are ways for people to directly participate in their governing - none of which I expect to happen - the govt will continue to be run by banks and large corp for their interests.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:40 | 4873295 worbsid
worbsid's picture

There never is a bubble until it pops.  Since there never was a bubble, no one saw the pop coming.  Silly Wabit. 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:23 | 4872948 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

"Strafing the Life Boats"....

First, they suppressed fixed income, but I own no bonds so I didn't notice.

They came for the gold bugs, but I was not a gold bug so I ignored them.

Then, they came for the shorts. But I don't short so I paid no attention.

Next, they came after Vix traders, but I don't trade Vix so I didn't notice.

When they finally came after me, there was no one left to protest that the market was rigged against me.

--adapted from Victor Frankl

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 07:33 | 4872843 Racer
Racer's picture

These Fed morons never see anything coming, so why anyone takes any notice of the rubbish they spout I have no idea!

'Sub-prime is well contanined' Bernanke to 'no bubble' Yellen

All they care about is their bankster partners in crime

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 10:04 | 4873410 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

They see it coming. They just added well over $3 trillion to their balance sheet the last several years and ZIRP for 6 years. The real minutes would show the true nature of what they know and believe. That shit they release and their lies are no different than Mary Barra lying through her teeth but then when she gets caught apologizing profusely. That cunt should be in jail and the sooner we can rid ourselves of the Fed the better we will all be.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 07:41 | 4872854 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Out of my S&P shorts at zero-zero on a stop loss order @1951. Market watch says "Investors have got a grip"; not quite the way I would have put it, but I suppose it's all a matter of opinion.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 00:45 | 4872481 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

The stock market isn't in a bubble unless they're NOT going to amortize all the currency printing, in that case its grossly overvalued, the truth is printing causes inflation, equities are the only safe harbor because their earnings are based on margins of whatever happens to be inflating.

Inflation drives earnings.

They will print not because of their models and charts but because printing is power and they're greedy fucks.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 05:24 | 4872725 SunRise
SunRise's picture

Upticked you - Neat insight; however, currency printing destroys purchasing power.  When people are unable to buy, production decreases, earnings decrease, and equity safe-haven boats hear the roar of Niagara falls.  Nature will not be denied.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 22:14 | 4872085 starman
starman's picture

Tick tock

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 19:05 | 4871504 Crawdaddy
Crawdaddy's picture

Did someone tag an article with Jim Cramer? Admitted market manipulator Jim Cramer? That Jim Cramer?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI

Maybe its a different Jim Cramer. A Jim Cramer that doesn't suck balls.

BTW, I noticed a guy jumped to Jim Cramer's defense the last time I mentioned him.I only say he jumped to his defense because the article was named:

In Defense of Jim Cramer

http://www.benzinga.com/media/jim-cramer/11/11/2145412/jim-cramer-gets-b...

Granted, I was not not going out of my way to highlight was a douchecriminal Jim Cramer is, I was just commenting to a group of peole who are well aware what he is all about. What Jim Cramer is about can usually go unsaid. Apparently Benzinga staff writers are unaware. To provide clarity and background, from now on, anytime I mention Jim Cramer, I promise to include a link to this:

http://www.deepcapturethemovie.com

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:56 | 4873356 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

deepcapture seems to sum up the way things have been going with the world-wide financial markets for the past 10 years or more.  I got hit by this kind of stuff for a 5-figure loss concerning a company called Immune Response (Jonas Salk co-founder).  The broker holding my interest took a yearly fee and over a few years time period the stock went to zero.  I called NY about the last account charge they sent me telling them I was not going to pay for an account that had gone to zero value.  Literally lost the entire amount.  I know that there is (or at least was) risk in buying stock.  But in this case, what Byrne describes seems to fit what happened to Immune Response - and to me. 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 00:01 | 4872402 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Crawdaddy

Man, I love a new word or "portmanteau."

"Douchecriminal."

It just rolls off the tongue.

Oh and by the way, that deep capture thing is freakin' awesome.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:48 | 4873051 Australian Economist
Australian Economist's picture

I have a new word 'Manipuflation'

 

It sums up all asset classes pretty neatly, except gold, thats 'Demanipuflation'

 

 

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 19:29 | 4871577 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

He posts under the name @NOT_Jim_Cramer.

 

Hope that helps ya.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 18:57 | 4871479 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

To say the market is rigged is an understatement. After over 30 years of trading commodities I will flat out state without any reservations that lies and manipulation run rampant. If you think anyone is looking out for the small independent trader you are wrong. An unholy alliance of the Federal Reserve, the government, and the too big to fail has left the rest of us in a precarious position.

For the big boys, its insider information and computer trading, this includes computing patterns that exploit where stops are placed, this improves their ability to wash the weak out of their positions. The bottom-line is that the higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward move. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/markets-more-lies-and-munipulatio...

 

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 18:22 | 4871325 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

S&P last ATH in August, then stairstep down to 1000 in 2015

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 19:53 | 4871675 tempo
tempo's picture

Remember Christians have believed Jesus would return any day for over 2000 years. So maybe the unending ATH and zirp will continue for many many years. Just be thankful you don't live in Iraq.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:57 | 4871237 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

for a 2.1 at year end, we need 4.1 growth over 9 months - april/may retail was shit

 

so that leaves 7 months

 

spewin' yellen can spin all she wants, but the economy is shrinking

 

stop spending folks - it fucks yellen and all the other bankers

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:49 | 4871218 duo
duo's picture

No one has the balls to short this market anymore.  What could go wrong?

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 22:02 | 4872056 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

The SPX goes straight to 2500?  Cause that is sure what it looks like.

 

pic related, fixed the chart in the OP.  http://tinypic.com/r/30hr23d/8

 

 

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 21:18 | 4871899 litemine
litemine's picture

No.....Smart money is waiting.......When the stocks that are over inflated by free money hit an increase of sales due to higher interest rates or increases in Gold/Silver which I bet will goes though the roof. I think Gold again will back Real Money. I will short stupid stocks that are Bubbles. I invest in stocks with low P/E.  Twitter and Facebook hold no real value to me whereas OIL or Miners do.   Believe me.....when this happens I will short  what I want and take profits from those holding what I consider Stupid Positions afterall......it is the Stock Market .............pay your money and take your chances.    ;0)

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 21:30 | 4871936 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

That does seem more like a Wall Street problem than a Fed problem.

And I dis agree... you want to be fully invested here.  "The Nazis are gonna take Moscow!"

The biggest threat is another shot of inflation followed by yet another...even bigger...default.

 

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 19:02 | 4871498 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

It seems no suggestion of weakness no matter how subtle can exist because it may begin to unravel the already fragile consumer confidence. They don't want to enter the weekend or a holiday with a bad market. While I think the market is way to high and distorted it is difficult to time a top. More on the reason for bears to be cautious in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/bears-have-little-reason-for-conf...

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 21:31 | 4871940 philipat
philipat's picture

There's still only one exit door. But don't worry, we have the HFT's to provide liquidity.......

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!