Yellen: "No Bubble Here"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Moments ago, Janet Yellen was asked if there is something out of place with the S&P hitting all time highs at a time when even she (not to mention numerous other Fed presidents) discuss froth in the bond markets. Her answer: no. Specifically, based on some "model" the Fed watches to get a "feeling" for valuations, she concluded the equity valuations are not out of historical norms.

In other words, "no bubble here."

And here is what JPM had to say about that.

Even assuming trailing earnings are valid, sustainable, and not goosed by the Fed itself (not to mention non-GAAP accounting gimmickry): the most recent median S&P 500 Price to Earnings ratio as of this moment is higher than 89% of all P/E prints in the history of the market. Said otherwise, equities have only been more expensive just about 10% in the history of the S&P.

Nope, no bubble here.

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Wed, 06/18/2014 - 15:29 | 4870702 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Bubbles are an inescapable reality of rising dough. -Kirk

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 15:33 | 4870718 max2205
max2205's picture

Every day at 3:30 there is a bubble

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 15:48 | 4870799 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

ES 1950 --  Going once, going twice, SOLD!!!

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 15:55 | 4870834 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I mentioned in another thread that the Baltic Dry Index is at a one year low ($858), hinting at a slower economy worldwide.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:00 | 4870851 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Nothing matters except the Fed's trading desk.  JPM, Russia, fucking TD Ameritrade could sell all their assets and the Fed would buy them to stop gap the stock market.

What a fucking joke, but they do have an Executive Order to follow - 

Executive Order 12631--Working Group on Financial Markets:

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12...

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:05 | 4870879 pods
pods's picture

Nope, no bubbles at all Janet.

And your future looks nice and rosy and not guilliotinish at all.

pods

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:07 | 4870887 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

He's being sarcastic for those of you who couldn't tell.

She's a fucking Wall Street whore.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:22 | 4870911 remain calm
remain calm's picture

Is thst a bubble in your pocket or are you here to fuck me?

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:24 | 4870964 Manthong
Manthong's picture

OK, so you are pounding a street whore (not within my realm of experience) and a huge queef detonates..

I do not understand the mechanics but I don’t think it is a good thing.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:35 | 4871013 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Alright, I confess.

Lamp light ladies.. I have had a few.. the most ornery ones though, have a few years under them, white helmet heads and bubble butts.

A hooker by any other name…

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:43 | 4871040 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"let them eat bubbles"

"while we drink them"

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:11 | 4871053 Manthong
Manthong's picture

A certain gravity-fed angled cutting implement in a vertical slide with a weight attached compares with that allegory.

crap.. tough crowd tonight..

Tyler(s) can you get "queef" into the glossary?

..there are a lot of air pockets out there.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:16 | 4871141 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Why is everyone so uptight about this?  Why doesn't everyone just realize that all government officials lie to make things seem better than they are?  As soon as you do that you will be emancipated and your anger will dissipate.  If you leave the control of your wealth in their hands however, don't be angry when it disappears. I was pissed off after 2008 when I lost 75% of my net worth.  Now I know better and don't blame anyone and I protect the little I have left from forces beyond my control.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:22 | 4871157 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

My house is exactly 346% higher then it was valued in 2002.

Dat's a Bubble.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 18:05 | 4871263 Manthong
Manthong's picture

.. my property tax is over 600 percent of what it was when I bought the dump. 

OK.. so it is a half acre on a golf course, but that does not give the state the right to steal the little that is left after the fact that the few dollars I have in the bank are not worth renting out to the f'n bank mob. 

I will be out of here within a year.. I will close all of my f'n bank accounts and will owe nobody nuttin".

I have a dream..

 

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 18:07 | 4871272 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

It has been reckless speeding only, if you have an accident.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 23:36 | 4872339 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Why do you still own it?

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:13 | 4870912 pods
pods's picture

I'm still reeling from the 29 trillion number tossed out the other day.

All this QE crap is but a garnish if that is true.

People: We are going to regulate the banks!
Bankers: haha, too bad, so sad, we own you.  We got tired of pretending we are providing a service so we had the central banks (that we own) print up some currency and we bought the world.

pods 

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:17 | 4870940 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Fractional reserve lending.  You print 10 trillion and loan out 9 trillion, now you have 19 trillion.

Viola!

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:33 | 4871001 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

 

 

 

 

"Specifically, based on some "model" the Fed watches to get a "feeling" for valuations, she concluded the equity valuations are not out of historical norms."

Yea, its called the printing press, MONEY printing, and the last time they humped US.... it worked JUUUSSST FIIIINNe. 

Ben Dover, Mr Ben Dover that is your name.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:53 | 4871071 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Fool faith and CREDIT printing.. unlike real money.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:15 | 4870930 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Ask Belgium about bubbles

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:22 | 4871158 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

They're ALL criminals (major or minor).

They're ALL liars.

The various 'isms' are bullshit - nothing but a cover for the crimes of parasites.

Their 'intellectuals' are hired to spread the bullshit, provide the smoke & mirrors. Most economists, govt lawyers, media people, and 'scientist' insiders are whores.

Bother with charts or analysis ?

Really ?

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 20:46 | 4871806 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

She's not a whore. To be a whore you would have to offer sexual favors for some sort of recomepense. No one has ever asked for a sexual favor from that she-beast

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:01 | 4870857 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Who cares when S&P is at all time high? "They" are clearly winning and they kind of boxed market in positive uptrend with no matter what they do. I just can't figure out how people as evil as Fed members have everything going their way always? And they are never punished for mistakes they make - their mistakes actualy are presented as moves of geniuses

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:05 | 4870883 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

They own the media, they pay college prfessors their salaries and give them their tenure, they write the books, sell the books, and cook the books.

While energy remains "cheap' ($4.00 gas is just noise) they will play their game, but if erergy inches up any further they are fucked.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:09 | 4870884 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Posted this on the other Yellin taper article, but its just as appropriate to what you are asking.

Yep, corner the bond market with unlimited fiat printing and CB shell games to take out the bond vigilantes. A perpetual ponzi with no downside for the elites. Pump equities and high end assets, and force any residual carryover inflation to low end assets and staples (food, energy, utilities, housing, HC) to be absorbed by the masses tightening their belt. Meanwhile the elites don't even notice the rise in staple cost becaue they dine on Kobe Beef, Lobster and Caviar at the bubble trough. Siphon off some of that largesse to benefit the Govt. in 2 ways - benefits to the sheep to soften the higher Ponzi induced staple costs, plus expand the Security State to insure any "complaints" by the masses are controlled. Welcome to the New Feudal World Order.

This has all been brilliantly planned by sociopath bankers for years, really gaining traction beginning in the 70's, becoming entrenched in the 90's, and unremoveable now. A Perpetual Ponzi. The only threat is REAL shortages of staples (food, water, energy, housing) for the masses. Central planning always results in shortages because of misallocation of resources (ie Soviet Union). But we are years, maybe decades, from Mad Max or Soylent Green shortages that will be needed for the catalyst for real revolution.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:12 | 4870894 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Oil production has been flat of late.  You get a downturn now and the lights go off.  Good luck on your "decades" timing.  Projections are rising, but it is flat, look....

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

Me, I've learned to farm, I'm in the shape I was when I was 25, and can still drink almost anyone under the table.

Cheers!

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:13 | 4870919 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

his decades timing may be a lot closer than all the "imminent crash" timing that has been off for 5 years.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:15 | 4870933 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Meh.  I see a whiteness of black swans approaching.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:21 | 4870949 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Meh blech. You said gold was about to go parabolic months ago when it was close to $1,400 and I said it was heading south from there. You yelled at me....You yelled at me. 

I'd listen to SDShack...we may be here a while. I'd at least put even money odds on it.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:26 | 4870973 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Well I didn't yell at you.  Fact is only a few years ago they almost lost control of the entire shitstorm.  You wanna give them decades going forward?  Great, I'll short you.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:29 | 4870991 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I was not talking to you. I was talking to soul glow and he knows what I am talkin abooot. 

Are you certain they almost lost control of the shitstorm? 

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:06 | 4871101 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

I think thats the point at which they took full control of the "shitstorm" by taking full control of the printing press.  How do we know that they aren't just saying they are tapering to 35 billion a month in bond purchases, when in fact they are buying who knows how much?  Do we really know what the Feds balance sheet is?  We only know what they tell us it is.  They could be printing a trillion a year or 10 trillion a year and we have no idea.  With infinite money both printed and digital, they can goal seek absolutely any number they want in any market they want.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:36 | 4871020 SDShack
SDShack's picture

They gave you the ILLUSION of almost losing control in 2008. I bought it too. I have since seen the error of my ways because I now understand what type of people they are. The 2008 illusion was just a plan to establish more control. And it has worked brilliantly for them. Just like AIG was an illusion. GM was an illusion. Greece was an illusion. CDS are an illusion. 0zer0care is an illusion. DHS is an illusion. NSA is an illusion. IRS is an illusion, and on and on and on. It's been going on 6 years of nothing but more control. 6 years is on the downside of a decade. I see nothing on the short term horizon to stop them.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:28 | 4870987 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Why do a black swan when you are winning? If the bankers are achieving a perpetual ponzi, then they don't need a black swan. The only justification for them to launch a black swan is to take out a potential threat TO THEM. This means a black swan to expand the Security State and control the masses even more. This feeds the ponzi. Black swans are not going to save anyone. Even if a black swan gets out of their control (like Syria, Iraq, or Ukraine, or fill in the blank....), they will just double down on MORE control to compensate. Learn to think like a socipathic banker, and you will see where this is going and why. They only exist to win in their mind, and will sacrifice everything and everyone to achieve it. We have years of destruction ahead of us.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:31 | 4870995 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I don't think they want to hear it. 

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 18:29 | 4871353 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

...as long as all the elites are on the same team.  So Russia, China, at some level would need to be already fully coopted for your scenario to play out.  I don't know if that's the situation or not.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 23:17 | 4872298 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Not.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:20 | 4870951 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Irrational exuberance" writ large.

By the time the Fed's done we're gonna have to reserve The Joker as "an entire class of super villains."

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:25 | 4870968 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

LOL, decades....

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:13 | 4870917 MountainsRoam
MountainsRoam's picture

Give it time.. I mightg go broke buying July and August puts, but even if I lose all my gambling money, I will witness the downfall of the FED soon..

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 18:30 | 4871357 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You'd be better off just staying out or outright shorting.  Buying puts is like donating money to the banks.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:26 | 4870974 tecno242
tecno242's picture

That is what happens when you are in a bull market run.  That is what happens when you are in a large elliot wave to the upside. 

EXCEPT.. in the past, it was companies and earnings can do no wrong, everything looks great, as in the 1999 tech bubble, even companies with zero earnings look like golden tickets ready to rake in the riches.

NOW.. it's the FED can do no wrong, the FED is the golden ticket, the FED has our back, the FED is riskless, the FED will never fuck up.

The problem being,.. these things always turn.  Bull runs end, Elliot waves turn down.  And when it does.. it's the exact opposite.  In 1999 though, that was companies with no earnings are worthless, everything is risky, stocks can bankrupt you, etc...

This time.. it will be The FED can't win, Everything the FED does is wrong, The FED is sinking the market, The FED has injected the maret with massive risk, The FED has completely fucked up.

I'm not quite sure what that's going to do, but most likely the outcome will be a total loss of all credibility by the central bank itself.

And its of their own making. 

But they are academics, not traders.  They know not what they do.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:27 | 4871167 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

But my broker told me, "Stock prices never drop."

 

..oh wait, or ... Was that was my realtor about my house?

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 18:33 | 4871366 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

The public faces are academics. The owners are sociopathic criminals who will change the rules they originally created whenever it suits them in order to win.  If your scenario plays out, it will be intentional, and the real powers behind the FED will profit from it, even as they hang their academic spokespeople out to dry.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:08 | 4870891 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

HARPEX though, went vertical and blew through the 2 yr average (granted way below the 5yr). Somebody moved alot of something. Perhaps its all that missing Chinese metal.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 16:14 | 4870926 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Probably Bernanke's dickcheese he left in the Eccles Board room.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:35 | 4871178 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I was just out driving and had CNBC radio on, post press conference and post market close.

One of the guests said:

"Look, it's what, 5 years?  Six years since the smash?  How can it be good that we have to sit here parsing Fed language about how much money is being created per month?  How can that still be required?  How can it be good that this is what we have to do now?"

A CNBC person, dunno who it was (radio) replied:

"It's good because I keep my job!"

NO LAUGHTER.

The guest said: "No, I mean in an important sense.  How can this be good?"

Reply: "It's damned important I keep my job.  It's ALL important that I keep my job!"

I had to be careful I didn't drive off the road.  That was quite the laugh for me, but dead silence in their studio.

Wed, 06/18/2014 - 17:27 | 4871168 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

8th percentile....so we have some ways to go then

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