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Initial Jobless Claims Drop; Continuing Claims New 7-Year Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Initial claims very slightly missed expectations (312 vs 311.9 exp) for the 3rd week in a row but the signal is no worse and no better as it sits near cycle lows. Continuing claims continue to drop; at 2.56 million, this is the lowest continuing claims since Nov 2007 - the last 4 months have seen continuing claims drop at the fastest rate in over 4 years. The bottom line is 'this is as good as it gets'...

 

 

And this is what last week's claims looked like broken down by state.

 

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Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:38 | 4873008 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Continuing claims dropping?  Elegibility runs out maybe?

BULLISH!

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:41 | 4873021 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah once you're a zombie, that's it for unemployment eligibility.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:44 | 4873033 CH1
CH1's picture

All is well.

This is the best of all possible worlds.

Obey your rulers.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:18 | 4873186 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I think you're dead on.  One of the many reasons they create these fictional numbers is to convey to the sheep that it is their own fault if they are out of a job.  If people blame themselves, they won't get angry at the status quo.  The average person is only aware of the topline numbers.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:27 | 4873224 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Welp, that was a fun 99 weeks.  Off to the SS office to sign up for disability.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:50 | 4873341 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Actually Congress never passed the federal unemployment extension. Most states only have 26 weeks of bebefits. What did they think this was going to do to the continuing claims number??  I'm sure CNBS mentioned that

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:58 | 4873363 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Of course the initial claims are dropping; people who aren't working can't be layed-off.

Of course continuing claims are dropping; people who collect unemployment too long exhaust their benefits.

Duh.

 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 12:08 | 4873945 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

"Of course the initial claims are dropping; people who aren't working can't be layed-off."

My point and you already made it.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:27 | 4873223 doctor10
doctor10's picture

Its becoming obvious that for many American businesses at this point -the Walmarts/McDonalds etc -that the fastest  route to more profit is through expansion of Food stamps/Welfare rollsand in geneal, Federal dependency

 

 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:35 | 4873274 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Businesses have learned that big government is their friend. They pay politicians to run up debt and provide people w just enough $ so they can hit Wal Mart, McD's and he'll even Red Lobster once a month. It's all coming to an end soon.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:32 | 4873244 intric8
intric8's picture

Lost for words

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 10:10 | 4873435 tempo
tempo's picture

part timers don't qualify for unemployment. eliminate 1 full time, create 3 part timers, wonderful headlines.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:39 | 4873009 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's the weather. It's too nice outside to bother filing.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:40 | 4873011 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Ah.  Let me be clear.  Ah.  If you like yourself being out of the job market, you can keep yourself out of the job market.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:41 | 4873022 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

When we reach zero will this be Obowelmovments " Mission accomplished " moment?

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:48 | 4873050 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Shit is getting very close to hitting said fan.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:55 | 4873079 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I agree... though I've been saying so for about 6 years now.

http://youtu.be/kRW7pITY5Cg - watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:29 | 4873235 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Shit did hit the fan 6 years ago. What has followed is the equivalent of wrapping a tourniquet around someone's neck after their head is chopped off. Eventually, the entire body will fail.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:48 | 4873052 youngman
youngman's picture

This is the new normal...with the lower amount of people working....and all the companies have done the cutting to the bone....this is it..and when you run out..you run over to disability...that is a life long payment..and then you can really get fat...

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:54 | 4873072 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Actually, disability checks are an incentive for getting fast; booze and drugs work too.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:55 | 4873076 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

I wonder who will break it to the political class that robots and automation don't pay no stinkin income tax?

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:15 | 4873171 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yet, Winston.  Yet.

I hear the Dems have a proposal being floated that will unionize all the automated manufacturing robots, give them citizenship and collect union dues from them.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:48 | 4873053 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Ahahahaha

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:48 | 4873054 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Well, it's all settled then.  We ARE recovered...

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:49 | 4873055 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

People are too obese to apply for unemployment. Obesity and weather explain every economic statistic in USA today.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:49 | 4873056 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I find the CA and FL numbers disturbing since we are heading to the vacation season.  Seems like there is a shrinkage issue.  Water must be cold.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:54 | 4873073 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

cold and radioactive. little mutant jobs market.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:16 | 4873176 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

I think with the raising waterline there is less beach front, therefore, less tourism opportunity, fewer resorts & hotels, therefore less employment needs.  I think Al Gore warned about this right after inventing the internet.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 15:29 | 4874923 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Wouldn't it be easier just to send Flak an engraved invitation (the Honour of Your Presence ... .")?

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 08:56 | 4873085 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

classified adds in news papers used to be one tell on hiring or lack there of - now what do we watch to see if help wanted adds are growing? monster.com who knows? I do not hear adds on radio for help wanted, seems the days of the internet have taken us to unk territory...where are the help wanted adds of today??

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:06 | 4873125 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Many compaies are advertising "jobs" that they claim they are unable to fill. Why would that be? Perhaps the pay scale is below the actual "cost" of taking employment in the first place. You can expect this until ACA is fully implemented and all costs are known.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:26 | 4873219 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Propaganda that keeps the masses hopeful will keep them from loading their guns.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 12:38 | 4874109 laomei
laomei's picture

More reasons for it actually.  The data from a resume is valuable and can be sold to data brokers.  They are also basically fishing trying to replace existing workers with someone who magically has more skills and is willing to work for even less because they are desperate.  And finally, as long as they do this, they can claim they are "hiring" which boosts stock prices

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:11 | 4873148 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

no worries... the govt tells us everything we need to know. 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:02 | 4873110 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

With VIX in single digits, soon to go negative, it's time to put all your shit on eBay and hit the CoinStar machine and buy all the stawks you can!

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:13 | 4873145 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The time to do that was long ago. Now is the time to ride the wave taking profits and buying real stuff.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:08 | 4873135 replaceme
replaceme's picture

I feel better now.  This is what recovery feels like, and I am a fan.  Ease back, Jimbo - you got to get with the program.  Army of the 12 monkeys better.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:10 | 4873144 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The "Berlin" of this Administration is housing. If that thing tanks you're gonna see total mayhem.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:25 | 4873214 JRobby
JRobby's picture

if?

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:12 | 4873152 bescobar
bescobar's picture

Why is everyone crying wolf or screaming like chicken little.The economy, which has recovered all the 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession, has enjoyed four straight months of job gains above 200,000, a stretch last seen in early 2000. Sounds to me things are getting alot better. There are just over 2 million collecting unemployment benefits. I just dont understand the fear mongering thats going on with the collapse of the economy. 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:15 | 4873170 replaceme
replaceme's picture

There's someone that's with the program.  Just in case you're not teasing, what happens to people after long term unemployment runs out, do they A) go back to work or B) go to disability and or a noose?   For extra credit, does 8.7 million jobs "put everyone back to work" in a labor force that grows every year? 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:24 | 4873211 JRobby
JRobby's picture

There are more options than you listed.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:30 | 4873236 replaceme
replaceme's picture

Work or not work is pretty clear - if you lose a job, you either get a new one or you don't.  If you don't, you live off your own wealth or you go on assistance.  Easy peasy.

Workforce grows every year around .7%, which works out to around a million workers.  5 years of a million new workers, on top of 8.7 million workers that lost jobs does not get you back to zero by adding 8.7M jobs. 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 13:36 | 4874433 JRobby
JRobby's picture

You sell stuff

You declare BK

You move in with friends or family

You eat from the food bank

You ride the bus or a bicycle

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:17 | 4873182 Bernankenstein
Bernankenstein's picture

Where's your /sarc tag, sir?

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:23 | 4873207 JRobby
JRobby's picture

If you don't mark it "sarcasm" you will be junked by trolls that piss red or blue. Ya' know that Kool Aide is all food coloring.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 12:01 | 4873959 bescobar
bescobar's picture

Lol, sorry guys. Yes I was being very facetious. I will be sure to mention that next time.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 13:39 | 4874449 JRobby
JRobby's picture

It was better the way you did it. The lurkers just had to jump on it. They could not stop themselves.

Kind of like a cat watching HO cars going around and around the track for a while. Pounce!!!!

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:40 | 4873299 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

OK Mister 7 weeks....sounds like you are a Fuckbama douche....so go do your job there....and stay there

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 10:08 | 4873420 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That is some funny sarcasm you are spewing there. Tell that to the part time worker who is now holding down two jobs because Zerocare forced his company to downsize. 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:13 | 4873153 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

There's almost no one left to fire and still run industry.

The criminal element in the District of Crime is #winning at killing the middle class.

Stay obedient sheeple.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:17 | 4873183 Platinum
Platinum's picture

Moar people got approved for SSDI!

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:59 | 4873194 nink
nink's picture

We have a new method for handling jobless claims. It is called prison.  Once your unemployed we will find a raason to fine you.  When you can't pay the fine we put you in jail.  When you are in jail we have a new correctional labor pool Please do not refer to this as free labor or slave labor it is all the people who don't have jobs and commit crimes like not paying fines or steal food in order to survive. 

 

 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:21 | 4873196 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Everyone exhausted their claims months ago. What bullshit. 

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 09:21 | 4873200 Cattender
Cattender's picture

i Feel i am Lucky to still have the SAME Low paying job i had Before the Explosion of 08/09...

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 10:15 | 4873470 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

So, claims are falling...but what does that mean? Maybe it means things are getting better...but too many other indicators say it's not.
Claims might be down for another reason though. People on unemployment do see their benefits exhaust after a time, and are then forced into low-wage jobs that don't provide enough work-hours to qualify for a new claim should they lose that job. Those newly unemployed will NOT be reflected in unemployment claims.
The long-term unemployed are NOT reflected in those numbers either.
And of course, there is the question of just WHAT are all these folks doing for money? Sure, they are getting some assistance, but I'll bet folding money that many of them have gone on to the 'underground economy'. The message boards at our development are filled with ads from all sorts of folks...plumbing, carpentry, electrical work, landscaping, etc. All cash only, *wink wink! nudge nudge!" The guy I used when I needed a refrigerator repair was very reasonable in his prices, and did a very good job. Paying him with cash felt very good as well, almost like a revolutionary act...we were dealing directly with each other, no government interferences. And no tax revenue for the government...
Starve the Beast!

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 10:20 | 4873495 Hohum
Hohum's picture

We're muddling along, that's all.  Credit keeps the labor market in a drowsy state.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 10:33 | 4873555 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

TOTAL FUCKING BULLSHIT!

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 11:02 | 4873713 kenezen
kenezen's picture

the American people know lies when they hear them or read them. Unemployment is at 6%,  All the e-mails were accidentally deleted.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 11:02 | 4873717 kenezen
kenezen's picture

the American people know lies when they hear them or read them. Unemployment is at 6%,  All the e-mails were accidentally deleted.

Thu, 06/19/2014 - 13:13 | 4874317 laomei
laomei's picture

The problem boils down to the fact that everything has become so utterly driven by metrics and spreadsheets and targets that as long as the numbers add up within scope and the output is acceptable, everyone gets to claim they are not to blame for the real result.  No one's ever to blame you see, everyone was just doing their own little part just as they were instructed to do according to the manual.  Let's just ignore the fact that the jobs created are all crap, the jobs vanished were good, ignore the labor force increase, ignore the fact that all the created jobs are going to seniors who lost their retirement, ignore the fact that a workforce in prime earning years and peak productivity potential is being lost, and ignore the fact that participation rates are low and government benefit numbers are at an all time high and growing.  Yep, ignore the full picture and everything is glorious.  Also ignore the fact that the metric used for "recovery" is bullshit, as the IT bubble crash was never actually recovered from.

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