Goldman's World Cup Prediction Track Record To Date: 34% Accurate

Tyler Durden's picture

With 23 games behind us in the FIFA World Cup in Brazil, we stop to reflect on the success (or failure) of forecasts so far. As we showed here, Brazil began the tournament as more than 3 times more likely winners than any other team, and, according to Goldman's new estimations, remains the strong favorite with a 49.5% chance of raising the Jules Rimet trophy. England's disappointment leaves them a 3% chance of getting to the knockout phase (and USA a 0.7% chance of winning it all). Goldman, however, have severely over-estimated Brazil and Spain's performances (and under-estimated Holland and Spain) as their track-record so far is Stolper-esque at 34% win rate (8 right, 15 wrong).

 

 

Initial predictions...

 

The results (red) and new predictions..

 

For the knockout phase...

 

and odds of progressing...

 

Source: Golkdman Sachs

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wstrub's picture

That accuracy SHOULD match with their stock trading.

bag holder's picture

So, with 34% accuracy, Brazil has a 49.5% chance to win. Hmm, Bayesian.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

b h, great obeservation!  Sunday 6:00 PM US ET: we take on Portugal, on ESPN.  Watch all the men running around kicking a ball!

MisterMousePotato's picture

Maybe we can get Flak to repurpose one of his global warming programs?

MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

Slow financial news day..??

What's next, Tyler, Maradonna's stock picks..?? 

 

Atomizer's picture

We can make fun of you for the rest of the day.

/sarc

bag holder's picture

Then afterwards, watch the men talking about the men who ran around and kicked the ball!

NotApplicable's picture

I might watch it if they replaced the ball with a red laser dot. At least then it would be entertaining.

OldPhart's picture

What's a FIFA World's Cup?

Mauricio6401's picture

Is the soccer version of the World Series, but bigger and a real world contest.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

So, the outcomes are not "managed" well enough?

Dr. Engali's picture

At least the muppets are doing a little better if they follow the squid's soccer picks than they would if they followed Stolper's 0 and 11 FX recommendations.

SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

who made this call- Abby Joseph Cohen

B2u's picture

Just as the ANALyst do, Goldman Sucks will update their predictions after the final score.  They will be 100% accurated.  

greatbeard's picture

Funny how having insider information can make you look like a genius.

 

 

Flakmeister's picture

In Hedgie land that is known as Alpha...

Seasmoke's picture

With ties,  38% isn't as bad as it looks. ...... I don't understand why they picked 1-1 tie for mist games.....look like they put about 30 seconds of thought into their picks

 

Seasmoke pick.  Germany. (Had Spain last WC )

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"ABB"  (Anybody But Brazil)  Smile,,,

alien-IQ's picture

Goldman Sach's opinion about who wins the world cup matters? Really guys?

is there ANY subject that you don't want to know Goldmans opinion on?

What's Goldmans opinion on how many times a day you should shit? The world eagerly awaits the answer....

asking4it2k's picture

Too bad Goldman Sachs isnt a "primary dealer" for FIFA like they are for the FED. Then they would have inside knowledge on whats going on and who will win.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

No sticks, no armor, no dirt, no seven-foot tall ghetto brawlers flying through the air, no rule that specifically forbids eye-gouging - so I ain't watching, bitchez!

Jack Burton's picture

Fucking England! Knocked out in record time. First by former Mancherster City player for Italy Mario Balotelli on a late game header. Then the Liverpool star "The Cannibal" Luis Suarez for Uruguay with two goals, one a game winning late game header.

FUCK!

 

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The Bearing household like(s,d): USA, Italy, England (ouch!)

We do not like(d): Brazil, Spain (huzzah!)

Atomizer's picture

ISDA Master Agreement

I take pride in doing God's work | Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein

 

nudge nudge wink wink

TicoTiger's picture

Costa Rica 1 - Italy 0

Fuck the experts.

COSTA RICA - THE LITTLE TEAM THAT COULD!!!!!

Mauricio6401's picture

They missed again, Costa Rica defeated 1-0 to Italy, incredible result. 

Chi chi chi Le le le, viva Chile, grande papa, pasamos el grupo y si ganamos a Holland sera a lo.campeones.   

It's great to see how the small countries with all the misfortune they face on regular basis (most ofthe time by sociopaths) some times, just some times, have some victories that are the joy of the poor masses )

Next team going home:  Italy, la pachorra charrua se los comera vivos.

Tristan's picture

Uruguay should beat Italy! )

Go ahead, emerging markets!

Winston of Oceania's picture

Way more accurate than their Muppet advice.

explosivo's picture

0.7% chance of success is better odds than the apollo mission had. 

JRobby's picture

Goldman Sachs - We take all bets.

When our clients load up on too many bets we short those bets. We are a full service betting establishment.

syntaxterror's picture

Don't be hating on my favorite FDIC insured deposit bank with $0.00 total deposits!

d edwards's picture

I was in a sports bar last evening and had no choice but to watch Japan and Greece "battle" to a scoreless tie!

 

WTF? How satisfying is that for a player: I just ran my ass off for two hours and there's no score.

 

I have two suggestions: give 1 point if the ball hits the frame of the goal.

Give 2 points for a goal.

 

Maybe that could make soccer (futball) worth watching. imho

pacrim888's picture

Allez les Bleus !