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Goldman's World Cup Prediction Track Record To Date: 34% Accurate
With 23 games behind us in the FIFA World Cup in Brazil, we stop to reflect on the success (or failure) of forecasts so far. As we showed here, Brazil began the tournament as more than 3 times more likely winners than any other team, and, according to Goldman's new estimations, remains the strong favorite with a 49.5% chance of raising the Jules Rimet trophy. England's disappointment leaves them a 3% chance of getting to the knockout phase (and USA a 0.7% chance of winning it all). Goldman, however, have severely over-estimated Brazil and Spain's performances (and under-estimated Holland and Spain) as their track-record so far is Stolper-esque at 34% win rate (8 right, 15 wrong).
Initial predictions...
The results (red) and new predictions..
For the knockout phase...
and odds of progressing...
Source: Golkdman Sachs
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That accuracy SHOULD match with their stock trading.
So, with 34% accuracy, Brazil has a 49.5% chance to win. Hmm, Bayesian.
b h, great obeservation! Sunday 6:00 PM US ET: we take on Portugal, on ESPN. Watch all the men running around kicking a ball!
Maybe we can get Flak to repurpose one of his global warming programs?
Just for you...
http://trololololololololololo.com/
Slow financial news day..??
What's next, Tyler, Maradonna's stock picks..??
We can make fun of you for the rest of the day.
/sarc
Then afterwards, watch the men talking about the men who ran around and kicked the ball!
I might watch it if they replaced the ball with a red laser dot. At least then it would be entertaining.
What's a FIFA World's Cup?
Is the soccer version of the World Series, but bigger and a real world contest.
So, the outcomes are not "managed" well enough?
At least the muppets are doing a little better if they follow the squid's soccer picks than they would if they followed Stolper's 0 and 11 FX recommendations.
who made this call- Abby Joseph Cohen
It's far to good to be Abby.
Just as the ANALyst do, Goldman Sucks will update their predictions after the final score. They will be 100% accurated.
Funny how having insider information can make you look like a genius.
In Hedgie land that is known as Alpha...
With ties, 38% isn't as bad as it looks. ...... I don't understand why they picked 1-1 tie for mist games.....look like they put about 30 seconds of thought into their picks
Seasmoke pick. Germany. (Had Spain last WC )
"ABB" (Anybody But Brazil) Smile,,,
Goldman Sach's opinion about who wins the world cup matters? Really guys?
is there ANY subject that you don't want to know Goldmans opinion on?
What's Goldmans opinion on how many times a day you should shit? The world eagerly awaits the answer....
Depends...
Too bad Goldman Sachs isnt a "primary dealer" for FIFA like they are for the FED. Then they would have inside knowledge on whats going on and who will win.
No sticks, no armor, no dirt, no seven-foot tall ghetto brawlers flying through the air, no rule that specifically forbids eye-gouging - so I ain't watching, bitchez!
Fucking England! Knocked out in record time. First by former Mancherster City player for Italy Mario Balotelli on a late game header. Then the Liverpool star "The Cannibal" Luis Suarez for Uruguay with two goals, one a game winning late game header.
FUCK!
The Bearing household like(s,d): USA, Italy, England (ouch!)
We do not like(d): Brazil, Spain (huzzah!)
ISDA Master Agreement
I take pride in doing God's work | Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein
nudge nudge wink wink
Costa Rica 1 - Italy 0
Fuck the experts.
COSTA RICA - THE LITTLE TEAM THAT COULD!!!!!
They missed again, Costa Rica defeated 1-0 to Italy, incredible result.
Chi chi chi Le le le, viva Chile, grande papa, pasamos el grupo y si ganamos a Holland sera a lo.campeones.
It's great to see how the small countries with all the misfortune they face on regular basis (most ofthe time by sociopaths) some times, just some times, have some victories that are the joy of the poor masses )
Next team going home: Italy, la pachorra charrua se los comera vivos.
Uruguay should beat Italy! )
Go ahead, emerging markets!
Way more accurate than their Muppet advice.
0.7% chance of success is better odds than the apollo mission had.
Goldman Sachs - We take all bets.
When our clients load up on too many bets we short those bets. We are a full service betting establishment.
Don't be hating on my favorite FDIC insured deposit bank with $0.00 total deposits!
Golkdman Sukhs
I T A L I A !
I was in a sports bar last evening and had no choice but to watch Japan and Greece "battle" to a scoreless tie!
WTF? How satisfying is that for a player: I just ran my ass off for two hours and there's no score.
I have two suggestions: give 1 point if the ball hits the frame of the goal.
Give 2 points for a goal.
Maybe that could make soccer (futball) worth watching. imho
Allez les Bleus !