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Goldman's World Cup Prediction Track Record To Date: 34% Accurate

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With 23 games behind us in the FIFA World Cup in Brazil, we stop to reflect on the success (or failure) of forecasts so far. As we showed here, Brazil began the tournament as more than 3 times more likely winners than any other team, and, according to Goldman's new estimations, remains the strong favorite with a 49.5% chance of raising the Jules Rimet trophy. England's disappointment leaves them a 3% chance of getting to the knockout phase (and USA a 0.7% chance of winning it all). Goldman, however, have severely over-estimated Brazil and Spain's performances (and under-estimated Holland and Spain) as their track-record so far is Stolper-esque at 34% win rate (8 right, 15 wrong).

 

 

Initial predictions...

 

The results (red) and new predictions..

 

For the knockout phase...

 

and odds of progressing...

 

Source: Golkdman Sachs

 

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Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:26 | 4878479 wstrub
wstrub's picture

That accuracy SHOULD match with their stock trading.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:32 | 4878494 bag holder
bag holder's picture

So, with 34% accuracy, Brazil has a 49.5% chance to win. Hmm, Bayesian.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:38 | 4878520 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

b h, great obeservation!  Sunday 6:00 PM US ET: we take on Portugal, on ESPN.  Watch all the men running around kicking a ball!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:39 | 4878527 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Maybe we can get Flak to repurpose one of his global warming programs?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:41 | 4878532 Flakmeister
Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:45 | 4878540 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

Slow financial news day..??

What's next, Tyler, Maradonna's stock picks..?? 

 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:05 | 4878619 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

We can make fun of you for the rest of the day.

/sarc

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:56 | 4878573 bag holder
bag holder's picture

Then afterwards, watch the men talking about the men who ran around and kicked the ball!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:04 | 4878618 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I might watch it if they replaced the ball with a red laser dot. At least then it would be entertaining.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:42 | 4878534 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

What's a FIFA World's Cup?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:12 | 4878916 Mauricio6401
Mauricio6401's picture

Is the soccer version of the World Series, but bigger and a real world contest.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:10 | 4878906 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

So, the outcomes are not "managed" well enough?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:37 | 4878481 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

At least the muppets are doing a little better if they follow the squid's soccer picks than they would if they followed Stolper's 0 and 11 FX recommendations.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:28 | 4878486 SmilinJoeFizzion
SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

who made this call- Abby Joseph Cohen

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:29 | 4878488 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's far to good to be Abby.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:30 | 4878491 B2u
B2u's picture

Just as the ANALyst do, Goldman Sucks will update their predictions after the final score.  They will be 100% accurated.  

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:31 | 4878495 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

Funny how having insider information can make you look like a genius.

 

 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:43 | 4878538 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

In Hedgie land that is known as Alpha...

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:32 | 4878496 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

With ties,  38% isn't as bad as it looks. ...... I don't understand why they picked 1-1 tie for mist games.....look like they put about 30 seconds of thought into their picks

 

Seasmoke pick.  Germany. (Had Spain last WC )

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:48 | 4878547 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"ABB"  (Anybody But Brazil)  Smile,,,

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:35 | 4878507 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Goldman Sach's opinion about who wins the world cup matters? Really guys?

is there ANY subject that you don't want to know Goldmans opinion on?

What's Goldmans opinion on how many times a day you should shit? The world eagerly awaits the answer....

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:05 | 4878628 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Depends...

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:44 | 4878508 asking4it2k
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Too bad Goldman Sachs isnt a "primary dealer" for FIFA like they are for the FED. Then they would have inside knowledge on whats going on and who will win.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:38 | 4878516 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

No sticks, no armor, no dirt, no seven-foot tall ghetto brawlers flying through the air, no rule that specifically forbids eye-gouging - so I ain't watching, bitchez!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:55 | 4878567 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Fucking England! Knocked out in record time. First by former Mancherster City player for Italy Mario Balotelli on a late game header. Then the Liverpool star "The Cannibal" Luis Suarez for Uruguay with two goals, one a game winning late game header.

FUCK!

 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:03 | 4878609 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The Bearing household like(s,d): USA, Italy, England (ouch!)

We do not like(d): Brazil, Spain (huzzah!)

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:03 | 4878603 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

ISDA Master Agreement

I take pride in doing God's work | Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein

 

nudge nudge wink wink

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:28 | 4878730 TicoTiger
TicoTiger's picture

Costa Rica 1 - Italy 0

Fuck the experts.

COSTA RICA - THE LITTLE TEAM THAT COULD!!!!!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:42 | 4878801 Mauricio6401
Mauricio6401's picture

They missed again, Costa Rica defeated 1-0 to Italy, incredible result. 

Chi chi chi Le le le, viva Chile, grande papa, pasamos el grupo y si ganamos a Holland sera a lo.campeones.   

It's great to see how the small countries with all the misfortune they face on regular basis (most ofthe time by sociopaths) some times, just some times, have some victories that are the joy of the poor masses )

Next team going home:  Italy, la pachorra charrua se los comera vivos.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:43 | 4878805 Tristan
Tristan's picture

Uruguay should beat Italy! )

Go ahead, emerging markets!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:53 | 4878852 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Way more accurate than their Muppet advice.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:34 | 4878997 explosivo
explosivo's picture

0.7% chance of success is better odds than the apollo mission had. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:34 | 4879001 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Goldman Sachs - We take all bets.

When our clients load up on too many bets we short those bets. We are a full service betting establishment.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:37 | 4879013 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Don't be hating on my favorite FDIC insured deposit bank with $0.00 total deposits!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 17:26 | 4879270 zerocash
zerocash's picture

Golkdman Sukhs

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 18:51 | 4879420 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

I T A L I A !

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 19:01 | 4879436 d edwards
d edwards's picture

I was in a sports bar last evening and had no choice but to watch Japan and Greece "battle" to a scoreless tie!

 

WTF? How satisfying is that for a player: I just ran my ass off for two hours and there's no score.

 

I have two suggestions: give 1 point if the ball hits the frame of the goal.

Give 2 points for a goal.

 

Maybe that could make soccer (futball) worth watching. imho

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 19:24 | 4879491 pacrim888
pacrim888's picture

Allez les Bleus !

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