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It's Never Different This Time - 1987 or 2014?

Tyler Durden's picture


While the price analogs of the last few year's exuberance in US equity markets are enough to worry all but the most systemically bullish "believer"; we suspect the following article from the LA Times In the Spring of 1987 will raise a few hairs on the back of the neck of perpetually optimistic extrapolator...



It's never different this time..

"One of the largest bullish factors is burgeoning worldwide liquidity, thanks to expansive monetary policies by central banks. That has helped fuel a surge of foreign investing that could propel US stocks higher, regardless of what happens to the American economy, some analysts say...


Low interest rates also help stocks by making Treasury securities, certificates of deposit and other interest-paying investments less attractive. The sluggish economy, meanwhile, keeps the Federal Reserve from driving up interest rates and prevents inflation from overheating...


Also, the sluggish economy--by keeping manufacturing rates low--discourages money from flowing out of financial assets into such investments as factories and machinery."

     - LA Times, March 8, 1987; a few months before the October 1987 crash

Read that again!!

Never different.


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Fri, 06/20/2014 - 12:58 | 4878364 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

It is different as before the crash in '87, there was no PPT.  Also I'm pretty sure global CB's were not selling Vol and buying ES through their Belgium proxy. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:00 | 4878380 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I think the PPT was created in Rayguns first term,so there was indeed one.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:03 | 4878394 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

ITS DIFFERENT THIS TIME.......This fall will make that fall look like a "trip".......There is no bottom for this mess thats been created

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:25 | 4878474 bag holder
bag holder's picture

Market goes up before it goes down, film at 11.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:31 | 4878742 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

But isn't liquidity 50% of where it was in 2007?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:27 | 4878972 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

According to this chart if correlation is right S&P has good 200 points in it before crashing and in 1987 stimulation of economy was nowhere near current criminal levels. So I think FED has ability to bring this to even more ABSURD valuations - according to granma look like Yellen (who I suspect knows very little about real economy) all is well 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 16:12 | 4879128 saveandsound
saveandsound's picture

Adjusted chart-over-chart don't tell you anything.

Those are at best accidently misleading.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 22:03 | 4879777 PT
PT's picture

This time it is different.
Last time, interest rates were 17%.  This time, interest rates are low but principal is 1000% of what anyone can afford.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 22:05 | 4879778 PT
PT's picture

It's a little bit like if the principal had stayed the same but now interest rates were 128%.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:25 | 4878476 max2205
max2205's picture

A ten bagger in less than 30 years. ...that's shocking

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:34 | 4878504 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Everytime my eyes read Bullish my mind says Bullshit....

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:17 | 4878679 Old Earth Chaos
Old Earth Chaos's picture

So, I know everyone is a big fan of gold here, but how do you know that gold will hold up during a crash like this?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:23 | 4878703 centerline
centerline's picture

It might not.  Depends on the severity of what is coming.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 19:35 | 4879513 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Old Earth asks a great question.  There is plenty of evidence that gold drops with the broader market as margin calls sink all ships.  A big drop in equities often has spillover effects causing liquidation effects in other markets and metals are no exception.  Thus many consider gold a lousy hedge against an overall bear market.  Gold also has proven a poor inflation hedge, except over very long periods of time.  Consider that for several years ('08-'10) everytime inflation was lower than expected gold surged.  Why?  Because everyone knows the Fed wants inflation and if it doesn't get it, monetary easing was next.  But when inflation started picking up a bit, gold hit the skids.  Again, why?  Because with inflation 'back to Fed targets' we got tapering.  I believe QE-Eternity was in large part a move against gold.  During the prior QE rounds, announced with limitations, gold surged and surged again.  It surged also with QE-Eternity, but once commenced, the Fed didn't have to "announce" another round of QE - it just kept open the spigots, thus staying out of the news.  Now look at what's happened this week - inflation up, Fed supposedly tapering but holy hell, gold surged!  Why?  ZH posits it is because of the hypothecation revelations and unwind of massive bad debt in China having potential spilover effects across the financial world.

Many hold gold as a hedge not against market declines or inflation, but rather as a hedge against currency failure.  That's why we talk about "paper gold" as being next to worthless and physical as the only way to go - you've heard it here many times, "physical gold has no counter-party risk."

THAT'S why gold surged in '08, why gold has slid in the last few years (well, that and central bank covert activity) and why many here maintain some portion of their financial wealth in metals - we believe that another, larger monetary crisis is coming.  We don't know when, and many (foolishly I think) are hoping for it soon.  Those who have lived or studied history are not "rooting" for a systemic failure, but we see it coming or at least lack confidence in the altruism of our so-called leaders to use the reigns of power judiciously.

The trick is, i think, to balance the rationale fear of a systemic crisis with having to live in the real world while waiting/expecting it to happen.  Some go all-in with gold, guns and preparation.  Some stay more in the current 'real world' but quietly add to their stacks while also contributing to 401k and IRA or just socking away cash.  Some play the market and take jabs at those who wring their hands, saying we've missed out on the great bull market of the last few years.

Like all things in life, stay balanced and stay awake.  It doesn't hurt to put some coins away and forget about them.  Their value will rise and fall but that's not why you stashed them away.  They are insurance against other insurances failng.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 20:14 | 4879579 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Excellent reply Oki, you should write an article for zerohedge. makes a change to see some common sense analysis.

Sun, 06/22/2014 - 00:40 | 4882018 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

If you are competely convinced the system will collapse sooner or later under its own weight then you should recognize that the longer it stays standing the worse the collapse will be.  Hence, wishing for it sooner is the more optimistic way about this.  Nobody wants it to happen but if it must, the sooner the better.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:29 | 4878724 walküre
walküre's picture

Nobody can say for sure but I'd have hard time believing that "weak" hands would dump physical gold massively into the market. Paper price may drop a bit but there won't be sellers of physical if prices collapse. There will be buyers on the other hand looking for the real stuff as this is 2014 and we had 10+ years of globalized communication via the web.

The web has pulled the curtain and exposed the lies and propaganda for many. Too many to try and pull a Volcker interest rate shock and subsequent sell off.

Any rise in rates can only be absorbed by defaults or haircuts or of course MORE DEBT.

Whatever happens, it's all favorable for physical currency.

Energy costs are a major factor as well. No drop here.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:55 | 4878866 daveO
daveO's picture

That which falls least, and is still available, wins. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 16:17 | 4879142 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Seems like gold (paper gold) will crash too as players try to meet margin called and sell everything they can. That will be a great time to add physical, if any is available and the premium isn't already through the roof. But no one can predict anything if the crash is as huge as it appears it will be. It'll be chaos and a very dangerous period worldwide...

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 17:55 | 4879326 Four chan
Four chan's picture

gold has no counter party risk, paper gold has all of it. take your pick.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 17:08 | 4879241 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

You can still out perform by holding what falls the least.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 18:49 | 4879417 NachoLiebor
NachoLiebor's picture

No, but I know what you'll be able to do with your paper contracts.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:01 | 4878883 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Bullshit.. maybe better than squirrel shit?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:00 | 4878595 WSP
WSP's picture

The market will never go down again. In 1987 we still had not perfected our ability to print money out of thin air.  Back then we still had all of these old fashioned people fighting us---they believed (falsely) that in order to have a prosperous nation you had to have productive use of capital and resources.  What they failed to understand is that we can print capital out of thin air.  The other thing is back then we still had to print certificates when we wanted to print money, and that required accountability and all of the other “problems” you had trying to market the securities, debt, etc. 

Everything has changed now. In 2014 we have mastered the art of printing money, AND, we also own the media.  You see, having a prosperous economy does not require the productive use of capital, it just requires the infinite printing, and now with electronic machines, we can add and subtract zero’s anywhere at any time.  If (we believe) one sector gets out of line, doesn’t agree with us, etc., we can just shut them down.  For those that go along with our way of thinking, we reward them with more digits in their accounts.  And for those that disagree that money printing is the way to prosperity, we just label them terrorists and let our goons take care of them.

So, you see Sir, it is quite different in 2014.  The laws of economics, going all the back to beginning of mankind, have finally changed. We can print digits and move them around --- that is the production of the 21s century.  And if you don’t agree with us---you are a terrorist and will be dealt with accordingly---capeesh!


Sat, 06/21/2014 - 00:57 | 4879378 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

Get Wise or otherwise.  Dwell on this cipher.  Most won't seek out the meaning.

RE: This dark Egyptian, babylonian art of Molech.  It was only golden calf when Big Mo came down from Sinai.  It was always "calves".

And what did they symbolize?  Remember this sytem, this matrix, is modeled only upon that of other times, nations, WORLDS.

That tired excuse absolves the command and controllers, the occupiers of commanding heights which despise freedom.

What are you doing here in this garden of good and evil?  "Only that which has been done in other nations, times, worlds among the children of men".

Known only to a very few wise men.  Really post-post graduate, grasshopper.  See feast of Sukkot, or festival of booths.  And think outside the box.

How to tear creation from the creator and make mundane.  Climb out of the crab pot, "do you know how hard it is just to move UP one rung of "He who strives with God's" ladder?".  Muckety-muck with the liars, whoremongers, fallen angels.


Kingdoms and principalities in discussion here, friends, bots, and administrators, eavesdroppers everywhere.  Probably no one, but 10000 will never unravel this eternal riddle.  Good luck my rabbit hole friends.

Sat, 06/21/2014 - 20:43 | 4881603 it aint easy
it aint easy's picture

"Eternal" things don't interest this nihilistic muppet, but the agenda is indeed multi-millennial in scope.

Sat, 06/21/2014 - 04:39 | 4880155 The Merovingian
The Merovingian's picture

Great points and I agree with everything except the first sentence.  As we all know, on a long enough timeline all things (change and) end.  So, there will be (at least) one more crash, sooner or later.  IMHO it looks to be a long way off in coming since TPTB can print to eternity, they control the media, and they have the ability to systematically destroy and discredit anyone who gets in their way or dares to challenge them directly. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:09 | 4878399 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The plunge protection team was created after the crash of 87. Reagan together a task force called the working group on financial markets and a PPT was created in 1988.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:10 | 4878422 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

A shame they didn't have the foresight to create PPT before that 87 crash

DOW could be trading in the quadrillions by now

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:56 | 4878579 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

and now they have an office in belgium?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:21 | 4878938 IcarusOnFire
IcarusOnFire's picture

The PPT was created AS A RESULT of the crash of 1987!

Reagan didn't want the markets to ever do THAT again.....


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:02 | 4878387 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

Question one: What stops TPTB from using zirp to purchase all stock assets and then collapsing the currency?   The end game is to own the stock certificates regardless of the currency that will be used eventually.


Question two: What stops TPTB from naked selling gold futures and using the cash to scoop up the physical?  They then collapse the USD and own the gold.



Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:08 | 4878413 maskone909
maskone909's picture

to answer q2:  tptb are more interested in proping up the dollar than owning phys. i dont think they are too concerned with owning the metal.  if they were, the price would be much higher imho.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:25 | 4878472 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

He's referring to after the dollar collapse. They only continue to prop up the dollar until some event occurs which allows them to escape blame (as even they know this shit isn't sustainable much longer).

Also, while the abstractions d.b.a. "institutions" are fully engaged in such machinations, the individuals who understand the fraud du jour are absolutely doing their best to obtain title to all tangible things.

As for the prices of PMs, well, that's just paper. Not to mention they use it as leverage to obtain cheap physical (while there's still an offer).

Smoke and mirrors.

(and, as always, I did not junk you)

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:49 | 4878548 maskone909
maskone909's picture

no prob the junks are always welcome ;) but yeah i get your pointe

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:42 | 4878800 walküre
walküre's picture

tptb are predominantly Jewish. Now that may be news to some newbies, but if you're reading here long enough it shouldn't be news to you.

The story about the golden calf that they built in the desert has been enshrined into their cultural and ethnical history for thousands of years. The calf wasn't built with paper mache.

They control the paper. As long as the paper gets accepted w/o shots being fired, fine. If necessary shots will get fired. If shots don't deter the world from accepting the paper, then it is up to their perogative and theirs only to crash the system, go back to the foundation of a gold standard and restart the cycle.

This has been going on for many more moons than you or I have been privy to experience.

Any attempts by outsiders to create paper w/o their blessing (involvement aka "take") is doomed to fail. Also confirmed by countless non Jewish based attempts at creating a financial system throughout more recent history.

C'est la vie.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:04 | 4878890 daveO
daveO's picture

Gold is money, all else is credit. JPMorgan They will ride the paper bull until it dies of a heart attack (Hyperinflation). We're nearly there, already. See Argentina, 12 yrs ago. Mexico, almost 30 yrs. ago, is another example. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 19:25 | 4879493 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

"What stops TPTB"? Those REAL (TRUE) Americans with guns that understand what they (TPTB) have done. Woe to them...

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:34 | 4878505 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

1982 was when the 401k programs started right ? Allowing everybody into the equity markets with their savings.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:21 | 4878944 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Allowing or mandating?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 19:02 | 4879439 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Neither. Individuals have always been able to own stocks, and 401k's can be invested in assets other than stocks.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:15 | 4878672 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"It is different as before the crash in '87, there was no PPT.  Also I'm pretty sure global CB's were not selling Vol and buying ES through their Belgium proxy."


The 1987 crash was different, as in 1929 there was not the regulation there was before 1929, yet the the DOW crashed a record 22% in one day, in 1987.

Don't make the false assumption that the market cannot crash because X isn't the same as last time.  Belgium proxy may suddenly stop buying for whatever reason, or some other event may occur.



Fri, 06/20/2014 - 17:43 | 4879303 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

They've all collaborated so there will never be a market crash. The only solution is abandoment.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:03 | 4878374 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It is different this time, because instead of days it will all be over in nano-seconds and, everybody will be standing around with blank stares on their faces.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:04 | 4878402 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture


Humpty Dumpty is just a fucking egg they will say. Shit happens, capiche. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:07 | 4878407 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

That will be something.  10,000 point Dow flash crash should set off some pacemakers.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:49 | 4878549 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Crap, just the thought of it....I gotta' go change my undies...

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:06 | 4878637 Shad_ow
Shad_ow's picture

Go long on sidewalk cleaners.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:45 | 4878814 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

then they can blame it all on the HFT firms and vow to hang them all.  Any wonder why GS got out of the game.  HFT or Cyber attacks will be the blame for the next massive rip off....i mean sell of

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:07 | 4878901 daveO
daveO's picture

Exactly! That was the first thought that came to mind when 60 Minutes aired that interview, last month, about HFT. They're setting up the straw man.

Sat, 06/21/2014 - 07:52 | 4880234 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

That will be one Hell of A currency swap to bring the market back up then, Honda Civics will be going for US$100K.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:34 | 4879002 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Drop is capped at 10% then stop for 30 mins and another 10% that is all what is allowed

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:33 | 4878503 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Dr E

more better technology may allow it to collapse in fractions of a nano second...have faith in technology...

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:38 | 4878522 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

A certain poster woke me up regarding this. When and if the big one hits who the fuck is going to be around to pay the shorts?  Crickets........ That was my real wake up moment.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:08 | 4878645 maskone909
maskone909's picture

i have always wondered the same.  especially those bond short ETF's (TBT TMV JGBD ect)  in fact, thats why i exited my positions.  deutchabank owns the JGBD japan bond short- if japan blew up so would their bank ect imho

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:19 | 4878692 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture is nice to sleep at night too!  Let Rome burn....but keep me away from the fire. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:00 | 4878378 maskone909
maskone909's picture

the fed is being led by wallstreet.  traders know that the fed cant afford to cut back.  the fed cant afford to let asset prices, like stocks and housing, decline.  the more obvious this becomes, the more panic we will see.  the emporer is streaking through the quad, so-to-speak.  what a fucking disaster.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:19 | 4878456 TVP
TVP's picture

Brilliant.  You sir, are a true wordsmith.  


The streaking through the quad metaphor works quite well.  And right now, we are at the point where joe schmo is just starting to sit up and think, "hey wait a minute, that guy ain't got no clothes..."

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:28 | 4878478 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Joe schmo is not that fast on the uptake. Perhaps when the emperor's ballsack is on top of his wife's head he will understand the nature of his predicament. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:55 | 4878572 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

you said a mouthful.......and btw so will he

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:04 | 4878612 gdiamond22
gdiamond22's picture

"Is KFC open?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:01 | 4878381 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture 'em!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:02 | 4878385 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

in 1987, there was no POMO and Yellen was just a little boy back then

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:14 | 4878426 Duke Dog
Duke Dog's picture

Perfect - I was about to comment but it would have been much wordier - you said it in the first six words. Then threw in another truth at the end.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:08 | 4878648 Chump
Chump's picture

Zactly.  I think we hit 18K on the DOW and push 19 before it all starts to fall out*.




*I am wrong on everything related to finance, all the time, every time.  I buy silver, silver drops 2%.  I go into cash in '09, the market marches to 17K.  Plan accordingly.  Or don't, I'm just some freaking dude (maybe?) on the internet.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 17:54 | 4879313 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

Isnt it different this time because we now have a fed who owns $29T or half the market....and can print at will?


there is no market like there was in 87.  it's musical chairs now... who knows when it's gonna stop...but they're selling the chairs to pay for another tune or two in the when it does stop, a lot of people will be on their arses.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:02 | 4878386 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

but dizzam that's a purdy good lookin' chart yo.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:02 | 4878388 jomama
jomama's picture

Those assholes will never let it crash again.  They'll kill the currency first.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:28 | 4878484 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Not so sure. I bet there's plenty of millionaires "not in the club" who will be liquidated along with the rest of us.

Besides, it will provide a "mandate for change."

Bitches love mandates!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:13 | 4878920 daveO
daveO's picture

Which do the banks own more of? Treasuries or stocks? The market will be sacrificed if they can't drive foreign investors into Treasuries via Ukraine and ME instigation.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 19:35 | 4879514 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

The markets will collapse BEFORE the currency does..

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:03 | 4878396 SmilinJoeFizzion
SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

tptb will not let this presidency fail- so the market is not crashing unti 2017 at the earliest-  



Fri, 06/20/2014 - 16:32 | 4879179 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

This presidency failed a long time ago.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:04 | 4878397 giorgioorwell
giorgioorwell's picture

That would be great if one of our congressional retards could just read that word for word to Mrs. Yellen at the next Congressional hearing and ask her why it is different this time.  

Maybe if this Mr. Brat gentleman manages to get elected he can attempt this kind of truthiness before he is either completetly corrupted or outed in some fake scandal

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 18:32 | 4879389 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Not so.  Ron Paul spoke the truth week after week, month after month, year after year, and he was simply ignored or labeled a weirdo.  Same will happen for Mr. Brat, and he's not even a gold bug that I'm aware of.  Yeah, he's an econ professor, but that means squat these days.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:04 | 4878401 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

No one in their right mind would enter this ponzi scheme.  The Federal Reserve has destroyed this country along with a spend group of fools in DC.  Come on people, lets get rid of all of them and put them in chains!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:07 | 4878408 CarrierWave
CarrierWave's picture

Good. So we have a few more months to stay invested and enjoy even more gains.

The more the stock market goes up, the more desperate are ZH writers and readers, seeking extreme scenarios to justify NOT having made any money in this uptrending market.

Further yet.. you can overlay and shifts graphs in so many ways to show similarities, yet NO ONE knows when the markets will top. For all we know it could be a year or 2 from now.



Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:13 | 4878433 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

"yet NO ONE knows when the markets will top."

You're a fucking genius.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:14 | 4878439 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

Or 10 years from now. Some very smart traders figured out 6 years ago that TPTB will not lose control again like they did in 2008. The Fed is in a bullish box, they have put all of their eggs in the basket of increasing asset prices and hoping that trickles down. It's not working, which just means they will try more and more and more ala Japan. The alternative is global depression that even their statistics couldn't hide. This will not stop until rampant inflation causes rioting in the streets

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:30 | 4878490 TVP
TVP's picture

I get the point being made here, and it's valid.

A few points of contention

1) the Japan parallel isn't exactly parallel, and 2) it appears as though a global depression reigns supreme despite massive "monetary easing". (e.g. 50% youth unemployment in Spain, pretty much all EU countries in extreme poverty, one person a day committing suicide in Greece, etc.)

back to 1), Japan's currency holds no reserve status last time I checked, and their economy had to re-build itself over decades after the pentagram in Washington reigned down ultimate death and destruction in the form of not one but two mushroom clouds.  

Bottom line is this right here: This monetary experiment is massive and unprecedented.  NEVER in history has so much fiat been printed into existence at once, at a time of such EPIC financial and geopolitical instabilitiy.  

Any by the way, there already has been "rioting in the streets", for many years, all across the Eurozone.  

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:35 | 4878509 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  pretty much all EU countries in extreme poverty

Funny thing is, they say the same thing about us.  But when you are here (or there)...   no extreme poverty.  

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:19 | 4878934 daveO
daveO's picture

Reserve currency status acts as pressure relief valve. Our inflation rioting has been out sourced to Egypt, for one. Then, our rate increase pain, last year, was outsourced to Ukraine(defaults). Putin's support of Iraq is an possible attempt to eventually reflect that 'out sourcing' back at US. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:30 | 4878492 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You mean that the alternative is war that can be blamed for the coming global depression.

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:42 | 4878536 centerline
centerline's picture


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:31 | 4878493 centerline
centerline's picture

inflation in the things people need as the system wipes out the middle class due to what could be termed economic cannabalism.  At some point the yield derived from spanking the middle class and cost of keeping a lid on things will cross.  That is where shit gets real...  when real math catches up with real needs (e.g. the bread and/or circuses falls short of pacification).  primary real world trend is deflation.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:38 | 4878517 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture


Sure one could ride this bull 'til the crash but unless one has some hedge they could wind up with a wallet full of trillion dollar bills.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:12 | 4878658 nash
nash's picture

I heard the same comments from fellow real estate sales people just before the market crashed started in 2005. I was sending warnings to friends and relatives not to buy into the real estate bubble. My fellow realtors said to me, "you just say what you are saying because you aren't making money like we are." I said, "My purpose is to protect my clients from making serious mistakes." I was right for the right reasons. Buying this market now is buying for the wrong reasons. I agree it may still take time but sell-offs can wipe out an entire month's gain in a New York minute.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:26 | 4878964 jomama
jomama's picture

who says we're not 'making' yellenbux in the stawk market as well?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:09 | 4878417 atthelake
atthelake's picture

Will the stock markets tank or will they go to a million (or more) from hyperinflation?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:13 | 4878430 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't try and predict what the "market" will do.  That's impossible.  Simply try and recognize the truth.  There is no market for true price discovery.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:33 | 4878498 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Same reason people don't bet on "professional wrestling" as it's a soap opera, not a sport.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:13 | 4878431 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

S&P 4000, you heard it hear first!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:33 | 4878502 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Where hear?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:59 | 4878528 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Well that is a pretty easy call considering it has to trade through 4000 on its way to the infation adjusted target of 6000 within the next five years of this bull market.


Besides the massive printing programs around the world this time is different by every metric.  


Rather than write a dissertation of it I will give you a couple examples.  Fastest growing companies now sell not tangible goods but fake clicks of banner adds and page views.  Not only do the CBs generate money out of thin air but so does the "industry" in the US.


Another example: Say Russia strikes NY and DC with nukes, trading halted, market re-opens 5% higher of relief that trading has resumed and hope for more CB stimulus to fix all those broken windows: JNJ halted up 200% on speculation of strong demand for supplies.  


This time is different, we have reached a new paradigm, there is no conceivable event that could bring this market down, none. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:10 | 4878652 WSP
WSP's picture

Now you are talking---somebody that finally gets it.  TheRideNeverEnds, you know what the problem with most people’s analysis?  They are still stuck in the old pre-21st century way of thinking where things like capital, resources, cash flow, supply and demand, and other esoterical economic terms get in the way of the new paradigm.   You simply cannot use old ways of thinking in a world of electronic digits and centralized control. 

Yes, actually the centralized control is part of the problem.  In the past we were not able to have a few people make decisions for everyone because the markets were just too complex.  But that has all changed now with computers we can give these overlords all the necessary information they need to shuffle digits out of thin air from one account to another.  These people at the Federal Reserve and their overlords know MUCH, MUCH better what we need than we do, and finally they have the tools to efficiently control everything which we so desperately needed.  We have demonstrated over and over again our inability to manage ourselves and finally we have these people at the Federal Reserve who so graciously give of themselves and their time to make decisions on all those complex economic problems.  Now, we just have to make sure we never say anything bad about them and listen to them and they will take care of us because they are our Gods and worship them.

Today’s markets are as close to utopia as civilization can get---thank God for the dedicated hard working loyal and caring people at the Federal Reserve who so graciously print digits up out of thin air and make our economy work so well.  Now we no longer have to worry about analyzing businesses or anything---the Federal Reserve has computers to pick winners and losers we just need to be the robots we were designed to be and listen to our masters. 



Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:24 | 4878956 daveO
daveO's picture

51% of oil traded outside of dollars. It won't have to get nearly that far before everyone jumps off the band wagon. Just ask Saddam or Qadahfi. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:14 | 4878436 novictim
novictim's picture

Hey!  Here's a thought!

Change the tax policy to force wealth out of the speculative markets/stocks and into productive enterprises (factories, construction, small business).

This is RADICALLY OBVIOUS.  Bingo.  

We need to rebuild bridges, roadways, retrofit homes with good insulation, solar panels in the West and wind energy in the midwest and East.  That creates jobs and a lower unemployment rate and wage increases.

A building boom of single family homes is needed in the West as well.  But the flow of money into the real estate market is the indirect result of a few wealthy investors with more money than they literally know what to do with dumping that cash on the housing market.  All cash buyers are KILLING the home ownership rates in this country.  

Who would go fight and die in a war for this country that doesn't even provide enough wealth to buy a home?  Only idiots.

The wealth gap and the tax policy are hand in glove.  That is the populist cause we should all be fighting for.

(But tax policy is currently written by the campaign finance reform is the first priority).


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:22 | 4878462 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Change the tax policy to force wealth out of the speculative markets/stocks and into productive enterprises (factories, construction, small business)." -

Sounds great on paper.  Unfortunately, unlike useless paper-pushing (financial "products") these endeavors require that real resources and energy (calories) be consumed.  With respect to energy, have you taken a look at the CAPEX for the largest energy companies over the last 15 years?  Please do that and compare it with the energy available for consumption that they have brought to the marketplace.  If CAPEX is going up, but the energy available for consumption is not growing, then humanity will simply be lucky  to maintain the current status quo, much less grow.

I won't bias your findings, do your own homework and then hedge accordingly.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:37 | 4878511 centerline
centerline's picture

Always comes back around real resources and the problem of "growth."  I would go one step further and add in social complexity as another wonderful limit we are currently grinding up against.  The real tragedy in this one is the JIT nature of most things we need (food, water, energy, etc.).  Disruptions can be cause a catestrophic domino effect.  But, I know that you know this.  Just standing on my soap box today in disgust of how such simple concepts are lost on the majority.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:33 | 4878499 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  so campaign finance reform is the first priority

Campaign finance reform won't keep the dumbasses from responding to the Red Teams fear and the Blue Teams hope.    We've got the only system possible.   The smart-n-savvy manipulate the dumbasses with bullshit for fun-n-profit. 

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:48 | 4879044 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Nothing changes until K Street burns.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:17 | 4878447 B2u
B2u's picture


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:19 | 4878452 atthelake
atthelake's picture

On YouTube, on Scott Wilhelmsen's Channel dated Jan 28, 2013  "Senior Obama Official Says "We Are Going To Kill The Dollar".

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:19 | 4878460 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

So GOLD UP to 2000 and oil to 50?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:22 | 4878465 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Analogs are interesting, but most of the time they do not pan out.  

With 1929 busted, my new SPX target is 1984 


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:45 | 4878542 machineh
machineh's picture

Moreover, the chart does not use commensurate scales.

1987 doubles from 150 to 300, while 2014 goes from 1200 to 2000, a 67% increase instead of 100%.

When you're trying to predict a crash, this shit matters.

Rule #1 is don't bullshit yourself with misleading charts.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:24 | 4878471 asking4it2k
asking4it2k's picture

There wont be a crash for a while. Small investor money is still pouring into the stock market. People are getting out of boring 0.80% CDs and into stocks. Until ZIRP is ended, the stock market will continue to be bullish.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:45 | 4878541 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Is this confirmed by mutual fund inflows? Because I sure can't imagine those E-trade babies are still solvent, let alone betting on the come.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 22:11 | 4878582 Kprime
Kprime's picture

"small investor money is still pouring into the stock market"

huh?  what? have you lost your mind?

from 1993 through 2009 the DJIA volume averaged north of 5 billion monthly. Volume has been in decline ever since and now trades south of 2 billion monthly. 

Do you really believe that ever declining volume trending down for nearly 5 years, represents small investors pouring into the market?

for an even more shocking view look at DJIA volume for the past 10 years on a weekly basis.  The only ones trading are the FEDs, the Foreign governments buying the market, company buybacks, and the computers doing HFT.  Take those four traders out and there is almost no stock market.  Why do you think they are trying to scare investors out of bonds by threatening to start a redemption tax on bond funds?

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:26 | 4878480 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I vividly remember the day the markets crashed in 1987.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:06 | 4878636 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep and everyone was all 'OMG! No one could have seen this coming!' Same as next time they pull out the rug one of these mornings.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:34 | 4878996 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I vividly remember gas cost $1.58 / gallon in 1987.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:38 | 4878523 Jethro
Jethro's picture

It seems like HFT's would trade all the way down if left unattended. Lock Limit Down would stop them first, but it seems to me that it'd kick off a cascade effect on the way down.

If Russia/China were so inclined, it seems like they could goose the trades one way or another, or hijack a HFT platform to force it.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:44 | 4878539 WhateverBullshi...
WhateverBullshitYouSay's picture

one more usuless chart matching that has been used over and over the last 18 month, without failing to prove that it is totally irrelevant ...

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:50 | 4878551 machineh
machineh's picture

Obviously the S&P is going to test the round number of 2,000 ... perhaps as soon as next week.

Its Internet Bubble high of 1,527 times the 39% increase in CPI since then equals 2,123. 

That's 8 percent from here, to reach a new record real high.

Go-go, Janet B. Goode!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:51 | 4878555 WSP
WSP's picture

Today's market is much, much different than in 1987.  Frankly, one of the biggest differences was in 1987 there was still the pretense of a free market.  Most businesses, even those part of the corrupt establishment, had to produce earnings and while accounting fraud was used it generally was reported by the mainstream media.  In fact, that is another big difference --- back in the 1980's the media was more balanced and couldn't easily get away with the outright fraud it does today.   Others have pointed out no PPT back then which is also true.  In short, there are a lot of factors.

In the end, the biggest factor is that in 1987 we had not yet figured out that as a country we no longer needed to produce anything in order to have prosperity.  Back in 1987 we still falsely believe that economies needed to use the laws of economics to function.  We foolishly believed that in order to prosper we had to produce something.  While it is true that we were on to the “money printing” in 1987, we still were not sure that an economy could function by money printing alone.  We also never in a million years would have imagined that we could use accounting fraud and other accounting tricks to mislead people---and they would actually believe it.  

The bottom line is prior to 2008 we were still not convinced that fraud, corruption, and money printing was the “nirvana” that we all were looking for.  We all wanted to defy the laws of nature, to be able to print money, to lie, cheat, steal, and screw over everyone that does not have the ability to print money or stock certificates to enrich themselves and their friends----but even we didn’t think it would work.  In 2014 we finally know better.  As a nation we can enrich the 1% by printing money out of thin air and handing it to them, all the while encouraging them to commit accounting fraud and other misdeeds to enrich themselves at the 99% expense.  We just have to control the media, which is easy because they are all just prostitutes who will say anything to make money. 

This is the new nirvana----we can print our way to prosperity and never again have to worry about what the market thinks because we control the market and all the accounting standards boards.   The 1% can use accounting fraud to jack their numbers, but if the 99% do it we will throw them in jail so that we can say the system is fair.  That’s how we roll!  Don’t like it?  You are a terrorist!



Fri, 06/20/2014 - 16:23 | 4879153 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 13:57 | 4878578 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

1987 was based on the myth of portfolio insurance. For those who forget, that was a theoretical construct that assumed continuous markets and the presence of a deep pool of liquidity on one side. It also assumed instant communication. Maybe more available today, but not available back then. I remember calling in futures orders to the guy in Chicago who then relayed them to a local while I waited to hear if I had a fill or not. Obviously, that broke down totally during the crash. So what is really different these days? Continuous market assumption? Nope, they still are using it. Deep pool of contras willing to buy your risk? Nope, they are still using it. Instant communication? Yeah, that one is different now. So at least 2/3rds of the stuff that was around in 1987 is around today. Portfolio insurance isn't, but very complex hedging strategies are. A difference without a distinction. What will trigger the massive run on the exits? I haven't the foggiest idea. All I know is that at some point the stampede will start when something spooks the herd.

Does that mean that I am totally out of equities? No, but I am darn sure that I am buying them at a price that I would if I were to buy the whole company and never sell it in order to enjoy its free cash flow stream. I was trading during 1987 you see.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:24 | 4878710 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh ok so then pretty much just the same today with 'endless liquidity' and 'Fed put' etc.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 16:32 | 4879177 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

That is my take. What little liquidity there is has been provided by the HFT algos too. Those will be gone the second the market takes a noser. I think that putting a chart up and saying that things are the same can be misleading. Looking at why they are the same is more fruitful.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 17:45 | 4879306 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

isnt this time different BECAUSE we now (unlike 1987, etc) have a fed that owns half the market....and can increase their share/buoy the price at will...with an endless printing press??


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:04 | 4878610 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nothing new under the sun, invisible hands have been pumping it up and crashing it for centuries, and they will again.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:05 | 4878626 topspinslicer
topspinslicer's picture

It's never different because there is always the slave plantation owner called the Federal Reserve central bank

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:46 | 4878809 Manthong
Manthong's picture

BTW.. 1913

Worst year in U.S, history.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:35 | 4878762 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

what was that, sorry, I was distracted by Stacy Keibler and 25 hottest cheerleaders.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:50 | 4878843 Manthong
Manthong's picture

ok.. hotties are a good distraction from the reality/sham  of the market nowadays.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 16:33 | 4879183 ShrNfr
Fri, 06/20/2014 - 14:49 | 4878834 Spungo
Spungo's picture

It's different because I wasn't an investor back then and therefore couldn't profit from everybody losing their shit.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:00 | 4878878 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

Looking at those two charts, it appears there is still plenty of opportunity for the current S&P runup to go even moar "parabolic-er"...

Better BTFATH, Bitchez....

Otherwise you'll miss your chance to panic-sell into the imminent waterfall;  and NOTHING make a person/algo feel more "alive" than a good old fashioned 1929-style panic...

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 20:27 | 4879602 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Yes I found the 1987 crash absolutely exhilarating as my holdings went into freefall and you could not get hold of a broker let alone a buyer.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:28 | 4878985 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

It will be different this time, as there will be guillotines this time.


"My guillotine always calls heads in a coin-toss."

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 15:55 | 4879063 Magooo
Magooo's picture

Oh but it is VERY different this time.


Because the Fed and other central banks will not allow the market to crash - as it rightly should.  They will do EVERYTHING that they possibly can to prevent a crash --- as we are seeing nothing is too absurd --- nothing to illegal --- nothing too insane ---- anything goes


And that is why this mad situation goes on and on --- 6 years of it now....  when by all rights this fukker should have gone down multiple times.


Never in history has this happened --- so this time is different.


That said --- something will eventually give (what cannot continue will stop) and the crash is going obliterate civilization as we know it.   This will dwarf the Great Depression.   The global economy is going to shatter.



Fri, 06/20/2014 - 22:11 | 4879794 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Agreed. But once the 'market' you entered, you'll never be able to leave. See my post below.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 16:00 | 4879085 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

All i know is that in 1987 ZeroHedge didn't deliver ads whcih crashed my browser. This place can go fuck off.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 20:25 | 4879598 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Load ADBLOCK to your Browser.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 16:30 | 4879172 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Germany gets half of its power from solar? The more dependant we are, the more  we are controlled. 

Wall I said, musical chairs while playing Russian roulette. Fraudulent accounting rules!

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 17:37 | 4879289 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

WASHINGTON — THE Federal Reserve is poised to keep purchasing large volumes of mortgage bonds, and potentially Treasury securities too, even after the likely conclusion of its prominent bond-buying program later this year.

It is a prospect that reflects both the breadth of the Fed’s campaign to stimulate the economy — one initiative ending, others still running — and the concern among many Fed officials that the central bank should not pull back too quickly.

The Fed is gradually curtailing the expansion of its enormous portfolio of Treasuries and mortgage bonds, from $85 billion a month last year to $35 billion a month starting in July. It plans to end the expansion by the end of the year.

At the same time, however, the Fed reinvests billions of dollars from maturing securities — about $16 billion each month this year — to maintain the size of its holdings.



Fri, 06/20/2014 - 18:38 | 4879400 Magooo
Magooo's picture

Yep - like I said --- they will do absolutely anything to stop this crash.




High energy prices = less consumption because everything including the fuel in your tank costs more = layoffs = less tax revenue = government cutbacks, layoffs and debt increases = less consumption = more layoffs = less taxes =====  economic death spiral.


Compounding the problem is the fact that a weak labour market means real wages drop - as they are across the world right now - that means everything is more expensive and your buying power is dropping at the same time.


Governments recognize this and are trying to offset with debt, easy lending (they are purposely inflating bubbles), lower interest rates and money printing.


This all started in 2002 when oil went from $12 a barrel to nearly $40 (and of course has never looked back)


Of course they will fail - because the disease is expensive oil.  And there is no substitute


The economic death spiral will accelerate when the QE and ZIRP no longer have any effect and the confidence game collapses.


This moment will be known as the end of the industrial revolution by the few who survive.


This is not a Hollywood movie where the hero saves the day.  This is the reality we are facing.



According to the OECD Economics Department and the International Monetary Fund Research Department, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices.


 The global economy simply cannot operate on 100+ oil.... 

They will not stop stimulating to counter this because that will bring on end of days.


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 18:48 | 4879415 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

I agreed ugliness lies ahead. I love the way it is always being kicked out a year or two and never going to happen tomorrow. It is as if we can't handle what is coming at us and need more time.

For a long time I have been trying to develop a scenario for a market "super crash" and a reasonable map that would arrive at such a situation. Below is an article looking at how it could happen sooner rather than later.


Fri, 06/20/2014 - 20:21 | 4879589 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

haven't they got Electronic stops they can apply to the market now in the event of a crash? and can't they then get the MSM cranked up and throw another few trillion dollars at the market to pump it back up again....just saying, hard to have a major market crash when the FED has the market by the balls.

Black swans optional.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 19:10 | 4879455 CouldBeWorse
CouldBeWorse's picture

I thought we were tracing out the 1929 crash.  You mean its the 1987 crash?   Next you're going to tell me we're tracing out the dot com bubble crash.   Can you just pick a crash and make it happen so we can get on with life.  The suspense is ruining my health.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 20:01 | 4879549 Magooo
Magooo's picture

This will be bigger than every crash in history COMBINED. I guarantee that


Can you point to a time when literally tens of trillions of dollars were printed --- where most of the major economic powers are printing --- where interest rates were 0 --- where corruption has been so epic across the world ---- where every little trick in the book is being used to try to make it appear as if there was growth or recovery?




We have sadly --- reached the END OF GROWTH.  


When the fire brigade runs out of water ---- mad max begins.  Well actually mad max is what comes after the initial period of utter mayhem, starvation and suffering --- mad max will be a period of relative calm.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 20:16 | 4879582 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

In the future we will look back on the tens of trillions of dollars being printed now as just being pocket change.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 21:50 | 4879746 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Pity they didn't put 1988 on the chart.  The market went right back up.  Must have been different that time too.

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 22:11 | 4879790 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Bonds are getting an exit fee...only a matter of time until equities get an exit fee, even more likely now that the sovereigns through their CBs are buying equities to the tune of $29T and counting.

The Eagles' 'Hotel California' comes to mind: you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.

And for good measure:

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 22:22 | 4879819 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

This should be apparent to kids, and older:

Fri, 06/20/2014 - 22:22 | 4879821 jameswvu99
jameswvu99's picture

This is like being in the waiting room at the dentist knowing you will have to get major dental work and the pain will be immense.  You just want it to be over with already and if you will have anything left after.

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