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How A Country Dies
Orighinally posted at Economic Noise blog,
A country dies slowly.
Those living during the decline of Rome were likely unaware that anything was happening. The decline took over a couple of hundred years. Anyone living during the decline only saw a small part of what was happening and likely never noticed it as anything other than ordinary.
Countries don’t have genetically determined life spans. Nor do they die quickly, unless the cataclysm of some great war does them in. Even in such extreme cases, there are usually warning signs, which are more obvious in hindsight than at the time.
Few citizens of a dying nation recognize the signs. Most are too busy trying to live their lives, sometimes not an easy task. If death occupies their mind, it is with respect to themselves, a relative or a friend. Most cannot conceive of the death of a nation.
A Country Dies Slowly First
For those interested, signs or symptoms precede death for a country often as they do for a person. There is a pattern that involves the following:
1. The Economy
Economically, people become poorer. It becomes harder to feed a family. Economic growth stalls and then reverses. Work opportunities decline. Disincentives to work rise as government tries to ease the burden on the unemployed and lower skilled. These efforts require more revenues which means higher taxes or debt financing. Disincentives to create jobs are magnified by attempts to address the problem. Higher taxes and other burdens are imposed on the productive making work less attractive.
The response should not be surprising. Capital flees first. It goes to areas where adequate returns are still available. Jobs are created but not in the host country. Finally a “brain drain” begins. Talented people leave the country for places that offer greater opportunity. In the case of the US, to escape US taxes these people must renounce their citizenship. Citizenship renouncements are currently at the highest levels in the history.
The flight of capital, both real and human, further lowers standards of living. Signs of stagnation become more apparent. They may begin as seemingly benign as roads which have too many potholes. “For rent” signs are seen more frequently. Classified job ads decrease. “Going out of Business” sales are no longer marketing gimmicks.
Initially, people dig into their savings or begin to borrow in order to retain their standard of living. Most believe it is a temporary situation. Eventually bankruptcies increase. Strip or full malls close. Large areas like Detroit become close to uninhabitable.
These conditions characterize the beginnings of the decline. As the decline continues, things get much worse.
2. The State
The State is threatened by a decline. Generally it moves into full pretend mode. Three behavioral traits characterize its behavior. The State must convince citizens:
- things are not as bad as they seem.
- the State is not responsible for the situation.
- the State must do more (grow bigger) in order to solve the problems.
Statistics issued by the State are fudged to convey a false image of well-being. Government spending soars in an effort to juice reported economic activity. Much of the spending is unproductive in terms of providing things that would have otherwise been bought. It is also counterproductive to a proper functioning economy as price discovery is disrupted and consumer and investment decisions are based on false signals.
Incentives are provided to encourage people to live beyond their means. Debt appears nearly free and readily available. Bubbles occur and then burst. New bubbles are necessary to replace old bubbles. People and businesses are encouraged to make imprudent decisions, all in the attempt to make the economy appear better.
The State has one objective and that is to remain in power. Laws and regulations multiply at ever faster rates. Tyrannical rules and legislation are passed under the pretense of protecting the people against some threat. In reality, these laws are passed to protect the leaders against the public when they finally understand what has been done to them.
“Bread and circuses” increase to divert peoples attention from the developing problems. Dependency increases reflecting an attempt to placate the masses. A “wag the dog” war or crisis is often used as a means to rally the public against some phony enemy.
3. Society
Society becomes coarsens as this process progresses. People increasingly are unable to provide properly for their families. Some desperately turn to unethical behavior, even criminal acts. Common decency declines.
The regulations imposed from above reduce the sphere of voluntary interactions between people. The government decides more and more what you must do, when and how you must do it. What you can say comes under attack. Finally how you must live is increasingly determined.
Free markets are slowly replaced by a command and control ordering of society. Coercion displaces freedom as the coordinating force for society. People increasingly do what they must rather than what they want.
Interest groups, i.e. politically preferred constituents, created in good times don’t demand less when there is less available. The inability to meet their demands creates political strife and eventually civil problems. Honoring their demands divides society even more. Not honoring demands may produce rioting and civil unrest.
Societybecomes increasingly divided in terms of the “makers” and the “takers.” As the takers grow in numbers, the makers shrink in numbers. Soon the parasites overwhelm the productive. Society collapses at that point.
Are The People Aware?
The United States, the once beacon of freedom and wealth, shows advanced deterioration in all three areas above. The rate of deterioration is accelerating. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway’s response to a bankruptcy question:
How did your country die? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.
Do people understand what is happening to them and their country? I suspect they are not aware of the full consequences. Most people are not trained to think in these terms, nor should they be. For most of us, it is a chore to get through each day. That is true of the dullards and the brilliant, for most of us end up at levels that tax our abilities.
People sense there is something wrong even though they may be unable to identify what that something might be. Many probably believe that whatever is happening is temporary, sort of like an economic slowdown that reverts back to normal. For them, it is tighten the belt until the good times return.
The results from a recent Gallup poll are interesting and illustrate the increasing dissatisfaction:
Numerous observations could be made regarding many of these institutions. All have decreased in favorability. Gallup was definitive in this regard:
The current 7% of Americans who place confidence in Congress is the lowest of the 17 institutions Gallup measured this year, and is the lowest Gallup has ever found for any of these institutions. The dearth of public confidence in their elected leaders on Capitol Hill is yet another sign of the challenges that could face incumbents in 2014′s midterm elections — as well as more broadly a challenge to the broad underpinnings of the nation’s representative democratic system.
The poll is not a direct measure of the health of the nation. However, it provides a very negative composite of public satisfaction. People know they are unhappy even if they don’t know the cause of their unhappiness.
This confusion and distrust always precedes the death of a nation.
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There is corn-pone Hitler out there somewhere who will claim to be able to "fix" things...
one way to promote growth after a bust is to try to conquer your neighbors. see hitler, stalin, hideki tojo, churchill, roosevelt, and every other dictator worth his salt
His name is Barry Soetero.
You clearly don't have a clue what "dictator" means...
BHO is a many things, some worse than others, but he is no dictator...
A dictator is a cross between a penis and a potato. What's so hard about that!
BHO is a dictator if you follow what the word means...from Latin dict...to say, as in dictator, as in you do what he says. If you can't see that he wants to tell you and everybody else what to do, then you are either brainwashed or plain stupid. The only person he doesn't dictate to is his roommate (no, not Reggie), the other one.
Or an up-and-coming cackling* psychopath, currently working hard to distance herself from the current psychopath.
* View the first 47 seconds of this video, and then the final 27 seconds of the Iran segment (01:38 - 03:22):
'5-minute video: US ‘leaders’ JOKE about OBVIOUS War Crimes, war lies, war murders: Arrest them'
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/02/5-minute-video-us-leaders-joke-ob...
The real purpose of the military. To protect the possessions of the 1%ers when their sham puppet government system fails.
“I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”
Smedley D. Butler, War is a Racket: The Antiwar Classic by America's Most Decorated Soldier
Sigh, control ALWAYS tightens; and given that resource scarcity is upon us the "system" needs to increase its control- this, of course, ultimately fails.
It like Waiting on death row. Take the fight to them now.
And what would people be fighting against? And idea? And if people are failing to understand the REAL problem?
I'm afraid that it would be nothing more than a populist uprising demanding on MOAR growth (we live on growth, until, that is, we completely run out of it).
Meh. As early as 200 AD Rome knew it could no longer defend itself. It was never that "big" (as a people) anyways. The location of Rome renedered her Capital basically defenseless. Which of course makes what the Romans did all the more amazing.
"America" is very similar. It's a very open society with seemingly weak to non existent defenses for its population. The most powerful system of "defense" is in fact a system of alliances and notions of "collective security"...a political solution to peace that creates "preventative war" by not having wars start in the first place.
What is different with the USA is the lack of any "Imperial Glory." We've got lots of "Romes" basically...and since from out birth the winners were those who hated Government, didn't pay their taxes, worked the land and told the Jews and the war Mongers who loved them to go to hell...the problem really isn't with the Empire but with all the trappings of Empire which quite simply Americans have no understanding of.
Simply put when push comes to shove raising chickens and goats will be The Great Imperial Victory insofar as Americans are concerned. (Hence the true affinity in America with Russia and Russian poets and writers.)
Americans just want to be left alone and buy their land cheap.
Wall Street collapsing, trillion dollar deficits, "Wars against entire population Centers"...this is just anathema to the American Experience.
Cable bills for a dollar a month would move things in the right direction.
Yeah like 2 vast oceans, one on either side and an Arctic ocean on top are just making us so vulnerable. DC is the new Rome.
You forget about the millions of "poor and huddled masses" on the Southern border.
LOL true, everyone has a soft underbelly hahahha
Thanks for pointing that one out.
The "nation"/"government" dies. The "country" continues...
"DC is the new Rome."
I'd have to agree that that's pretty much on target.
We'll have gone from George H. Bush's "new world order" to regionalism. Expansion always gives way to contraction...
It's not the words they mouth, but rather, what they do about that which they don't trust. A country dies when the distrust is acted upon in sufficient numbers.
Real history will never be taught again in the U.S. or world’s classrooms. Politicians believe it is too dangerous in this present world. Most who read history today look at it as a simple record of mans wickedness in the past. They fail to see where that wickedness originates. They never realize the wickedness of government run astray is the main component for most of mankind’s misery.
Citizens either control government in the present or history repeats itself. Some of these lessons are:
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When you look to government for economic security, government will take what you have, distribute it to the needier and make you one of the needier.
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When you look to government for political security for your freedom, government will build security forces that limit your freedom.
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Government does not care about its citizens first. Governments first priority is to keep government and its cronies going and continue in power,
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The majority of deaths in this world are not from natural causes or disease but rather deaths from governments trying to survive (that is wars, dictators, etc…).
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Given the choice between letting its citizens prosper or taking from its citizens wealth government and its cronies will take its citizens wealth and blame others for the confiscation.
When you look at governments in the world today few are controlled by their citizens. The present U.K. government follows all the rules above for complete control for its citizenry. The U.S. is not far behind. We have forgotten that goverment must be limited because as others have said it is a "necessary evil".
Good Post. You can be my neighbor. In the meantime have a green arrow.
"The majority of deaths in this world are not from natural causes or disease but rather deaths from governments trying to survive (that is wars, dictators, etc…)."
Um... most deaths have been from starvation. Govts can do nothing about starvation other than to make others starve (invade other countries) or kill its own (in some pre-emptive way).
The PROIBLEM is firmly anchored in our quest for perpetual growth. That's the built-in doomsday device, as it is mathematical certainty that eventual failure/collapse awaits such a strategy/paradigm. No matter how "noble" or "informed" a cluster of humans might be, as long as they keep expaning their numbers they will eventually exhaust their ability to acquire the necessary natural resources from which to live. "History" is mostly a means of making up stories that hide this reality.
I enjoyed your post ... buuut, it seems to be a logical impossibility for the citizen to control the government.
How can you be both Master and Slave?
AFAICS, it never has worked; and, it never will work.
This is hyperbole.
When there's a crash, tremendous wealth transfer occurs - yes, even the 1% take a beating.
And once we hit bottom, there's a new guard.
This being said, the MSM needs a house cleaning. Sites like ZH would never exist if MSM did what they are supposed to do.
TARP was all about more American debt to buy time for the top of the ponzi to get positioned for the crash. Its called front running.
sounds like a country ready for a military coup. Like for Spain 1936 or Chile 1973.
Military 72% should give a lot of generals a furious hard-on.
Is that the subliminal message of this post?
The message is that 74% of the people don't mind killing others and destroying their property.
That one sure played out by the book in Rwanda. Not bad to be armed in times of instability if you dont want to end up decaying as a bloated corpse down a river or dried up in the sun on terra firma.
And there it is!
People, when they feel they have been "shorted," will strike out at others in order to garner what they believe is their entitled bounty.
Pretty easy to map this one out. ALL WARS are about resources. And there's a dearth of reasons why people will accept the killing and pilliaging of other peoples, none of which are to include the real underlying reason (because the champions of the wars require others pull in that fresh "growth" fodder from which they keep themselves high in the resurected/new structure- the peons are kept distracted and in line because they'll get some crumbs).
If people could see how our senior military leadership operates (05 and above) they would be horrified. I guarantee that 74% would reduce.
Acropolis, metropolis, necropolis. We have known how societies
die since the Greeks invented the concept of death. Americans
may actually be the most ignorant boobs on the face of the planet.
OCCUPY THE IGNORANT MASSES - OCCUPY EVERYTHING
Bobby Jindal seems to be fired up. But then again he is a politician so the the motivation can be suspect. He did mention hostile takeover.
http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2014/06/21/jindal-says-rebe...
You said it, Jindal is a politician. What he says now is great but just watch if and when he gets real power at Federal level. He'll jettison everything he supposedly stands for.
Learn how to defend yourselves.
$1,260,000 in debt and unfunded liabilities per taxpayer and rising at $69,000 per year per taxpayer. No chance of ever escaping debt default.
Keep buying US Treasuries - safe as the Titanic, only much bigger. Would Yellen lie to you?
The country dies when a people become corrupt. It generally starts from the top down.
Laws are made for the relative few who violate them. It cannot be for more than that, as the law becomes unenforceable and "martial law" (which is actually a suspension of law) is instituted. Or there is no law at all (except the law of the jungle). Most in civil society do not commit crimes because they are afraid of the consequences. They don't commit crimes because it is wrong.
When you have just enough illegal activity, it doesn't even have to be near a majority of the populace, a tipping point occurs, and you have societal breakdown. A death spiral ensues.
Everyone "gets mines" and politicians appeal to that sentiment. While none are innocent, one political party and persuasion has that down to absolutely diabolical art form.
Of course, the money from the "rich" (or anyone else for that matter) never comes in, and the crumbs that do filter down has to be split amongst the swelling ranks of the unwashed.
People work under the table, shack up, etc. to stay under the economic guillotine to receive state bribes, er....bennies in exchange for votes.
I watched the series "John Adams" on cable. He had a quote I wish I could remember precisely, but went something like "a republic cannot survive unless the people are moral. It cannot stand under any other".
P.T. Barnum said you cannot cheat an honest man.
That's because an honest man easliy spots lies. This includes getting something for nothing.
Our nation stopped being honest long ago.
"Without morals a republic cannot subsist any length of time; they therefore who are decrying the Christian religion…are undermining the solid morals, the best security for the duration of free government." (Charles Carroll. Signer of the Declaration of Independence.)
Free and government are contradictory terms.
Mutually-exclusive terms, I would say.
While Adams sounded smart he was still lacking in true comprehension of the human condition.
As Sir John Glubb (having a few more data points to review than did Adams) discovered looking through 3,000 years of human empires- it doesn't matter what ideology or what kind of rulers that an empire has, they ALL fail. As I've been hammering on for YEARS, being the best-looking horse at the glue factory doesn't do shit for long-term survival; long-term survival is DOA if the society is predicated on perpetual growth.
"Honesty" is a casualty, it's a symptom and is not the disease. Besides, nature works by deception, and, humans are OF nature (and are pretty damned good at the game of deception [technology really gives us another boost up that ladder]).
I've noticed that everyone's wrong but you, cheesedick.
Thanks ZH. I was having a good day until I read this. I think I'll cheer myself up by going to the flea market and buying some stuff for pennies on the dollar that some poor SOB has to sell to feed his family.
Go buy some guns and ammo instead, when the time comes that poor SOB will be coming for you...
Then you won't wan to watch this.
http://youtu.be/oqB4L-V67iM
An excellent article. Add to the author's essay:
1. In my opinion, the death of a nation doesn't happen only due to gross mis-government (although that certainly affects it). Decline and death is inevitable, in just the same way that human life comes to an end. Nothing can be done to prevent it, only to delay it.
2. Do not underestimate the ingenuity that the ruling elites will employ to extend the life of a nation and their reign of power & control. Britain has been in decline for all of my life (and for a very long period before) but still manages to stagger on thru the growth in taxation, debt and ever more government. It won't finally implode until I'm history.
England will implode within two years IMHO. Not even God can help
the Satanists now. God's 'double edged sword' was used to
cut the throats of the evil rich 1 % that have oppressed the 99 %
to the point of financial ruin throughout the world. When the masses rise up in the UK where do you think the Whore of Babylon
is going to run to?
HINT: I suspect she will run into a drainage ditch culvert like her
counterpart in Libya and then get shot between the eyes by
some poor slob that lives on the streets of England.
OCCUPY THE DOUCHEBAG 1% RULING CLASSLESS KLEPTOCRATS - OCCUPY EVERYTHING
England will be the next to fall to ISIS.
It was a Paki infested shithole when i left 20 years ago.
"It [Britain] was a Paki infested shithole when i left 20 years ago."
The big debate going on in Britain recently is all about "immigration" or as the PC crowd like to call it "migration". The debate is tightly focused by MSM and political elites towards people coming from other EU countries into Britain. These EU migrants have a right to come to Britain under the Single Market Treaty.
What the debate has never been allowed to cover are the vast numbers of people who live in Britain - 2nd and 3rd generation families - who came from Asia and the Indian sub-continent - India and Pakistan - during the latter days of the British Empire and since. Yet it is these people who come to mind whenever people on the street think about "Britain's immigration problem".
This problem never had anything to do with the British people, it was a policy imposed by successive governments without the peoples' consent. I recently pointed this out to the Home Secretary Theresa May but she never had the courtesy of even replying. Meanwhile, the coalition govt and UKIP focus public attention on EU migrants, who are far less of a problem.
Got nothing to do with "satanism," or any other "ism" other than gowth-ism.
As the wheel of perpetual growth grinds to a halt we will increasingly become more and more deceptive in order to survive. Each of us will be more aware of the deceptions: deceptions have always abounded, but when the table is set for a feast we tend to not focus on this point that much; only when the table is sparse (because more and more people are seated at it and the kitchen never increased in size) do we start noticing, and, unfortunately, we have to resort to deception or vileness in order to "rectify" the situation (we shall become what we abhor).
It will collapse down to city-states. Anyone living outside of the city-states will either support the city-state they are nearest, or be on their own.
Almost exactly what the Founding Fathers set up - with virtually independent states in control of their own destiny and a very limited central government!
Yeah, almost like the structures utilized by the previous inhabitants!
Glad that people are starting to drift away from all the paranoia about NWO/OWG. Common sense indicates that we're decentralizing (regionalism), and that's what's starting to show.
I recently found myself thinking about the decline or collapse of great empires and realized that it is often hard to predict when or how their demise will occur. One sign of the end is a massive growth in crony capitalism and corruption. Many analogies can be taken from this idea, the empire need not be great and timing is always hard to correctly gauge.
The signs of decline may be everywhere but that does not guarantee the end is near. As the foundation crumbles away it is not uncommon for those in power to extend their rule by many tricks and changing the rules in order to gain a new lease on life. More on the subject of how empires collapse in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/how-empires-collapse.html
Why must people seek to always reinvent the wheel?
THE FATE OF EMPIRES and SEARCH FOR SURVIVAL Sir John Glubbhttp://www.rexresearch.com/glubb/glubb-empire.pdf
"Disincentives to work rise as government tries to ease the burden on the unemployed and lower skilled."
What the governments motives are for doing this is a guess. I think this author guesses wrong. They do not care about the poor. They send them off to wars, they prohibit feeding the poor. They only pretend to care about the poor in order to extract wealth. They only extract wealth because there are some things they can not command yet and need to buy. Once they control everyone, they can tax everyone for whatever they want.
Their ultimate goal is not wealth, but power. Governments let 260 million of their own citizens die in the 20th century. Instead of exploiting them, they just destroyed them. Their goal is power and domination and nothing else.
"Their ultimate goal is not wealth, but power."
Yup. POWER.
But... as governments can NOT create anything I don't know why people bother to expect them to "do something."
POWER creates the deception that allows those holding it to ride upon the backs/shoulders of everyone else (as they breed their next generation of "leaders"). If folks don't like this then they should stop giving it their seal of approval by voting FOR it (voting for the System; i.e. "govt" [and voting for a "small govt" is like asking to be just a little pregnant!]).
PCRS your one of the good guys and you got balls like coconuts man.
Watch your back brother.
why is the US sending $557MM to Egypt
Poorly reasoned article. A country dies because FIRST laws are written and modified to give ever-increasing amounts of wealth and power to a select (and undeserving) few. The economic hardship and everything that follows is but the natural consequences of that initial action.
If you read the article, you'd find that the author's views are no different to what you've just written.
Wrong. The article completely fails to recognize that the government was the cause for economic instability in the first place. It puts the government in the role of a well-intentioned, but failing rebalancer. The imbalances (making incompetants rich and powerful) were initially created by the legislature. Unfair distribution of wealth always precedes attempted redistrubution of wealth, and you aren't smart enough to recognize the difference.
"The article completely fails to recognize that the government was the cause for economic instability in the first place."
Growth is NOT sustainable, therefore all that derives from it will eventually display instability. Stability != growth.
"Unfair distribution of wealth always precedes attempted redistrubution of wealth, and you aren't smart enough to recognize the difference."
Life is not "fair." Humans are deceptive. I don't believe that you/I/anyone is going to "correct" this. That leaves us with only ONE thing in which we could have any bearing on- GROWTH, rather, an understanding that we cannot predicate ourselves on perpetual growth (on a finite planet) if we wish to truly become "stable." I don't profess to have any answers; but, unlike most, at least I know what the REAL question is.
You keep blaming "unsustainable growth". Looks like growth has been pretty sustainable for the past 5,000 or so years. Sure, there have been bumps along the way, but our population has kept growing century over century.
And we're not in a closed system, but even if we were, so long as we can discover new ways to use old resources, growth is still sustainable.
I believe the "unsustainable growth" arguments are primarily based upon planet Earth's non-replaceable natural resources, many of which have played a central role in industrial growth and wealth creation over the past few generations. Stuff like oil, gas, water and other minerals etc.
If you run out of them as we are doing, slowly, economic growth falters and soon grinds to a relative halt. Add to that, the physical garbage mankind produces which nobody knows what to do with. You can see why people say we are locked into an unsustainable growth paradigm.
Sitting behind a lot of the arguments is the global growth in population, but very few people are willing to talk about that for obvious reasons.
There are a few things which need to happen to avert the catastrophe mankind has created if we are to avoid ever more wars fighting over what's left. Finding alternative sources of energy being high up the list.
How can you believe that the Earth is not limited in resources? It is an adiabat.
Perhaps the more efficient use of a resource will extend the time to the exhaustion of the resource but this will not prevent the exhaustion of the resource.
The sad truth is that the failure of people to understand the Exponential Function will lead to the collapse.
There is a simple analogy with a culture of Bacteria in a jar of nutrient which I can use to illustrate the point.
"A jar of Nutrient is innoculated with a culture of Bacteria. The population doubles every minute so that after 60 Minutes the jar is exhausted of nutrient and filled with Bacteria.
At 52 Minutes...What Fraction of Nutrient is left in the jar? The truth is that 255 out of 256 parts of that jar is Nutrient. One part in 256 parts of the jar is Bacteria.
This can be demonstrated MATHEMATICALLY.
The jar has lasted for 52 out of 60 Minutes (a large percentage of the 60 Minute life span of the jar of Bacteria Nutrient Solution) and yet we know that the Nutrient will be exhausted within 60 Minutes and the Bacteria will be dead.
This is analagous to your statement that "...growth has been pretty sustainable for the past 5000 years".
It seems like, it appears like, that there is an abundance of Nutrient (abundance of Resources) and yet we can extrapolate exhaustion due to the rate of Growth.
Just because it APPEARS that growth has been sustainable for the past 5000 years does not mean that it will continue to be sustainable. Appearances can be deceiving.
And the Growth function is actually worse as the Base for the Exponential Growth is not 2, as used in my illustration, but is the Natural Logarithmic Base 'e' which is 2.71
Unfortunately those who wil argue with the Math, deny the Math, are in for one hell of a rude awakening. Thomas Malthus was correct.
Exponential Growth in any adiabatic system will ALWAYS, WITHOUT FAILURE, lead to an Exponential Collapse.
Tommy you need to incr you zoloft, (no don't), just wake up to the unlimited possiblities that will allow growth, of course if you liked bronze age vistas, you might be disappointed. Man must first find a way to remove the tumor of elite reptiles who create misery, where ever they have control. Man is a very young species and you can be blinded by all the false narratives fed us by the overlords in power. They (reptiles I call them) have created the options for us understand THEY want you to see pollution and poverty as the result of growth, it keeps them in control of scarce resources, get it?
Your argument appears to be based upon unequal distribution of wealth being the primary reason of a nation's decline and that this is caused by government. Or something to that effect. You place the laws that get passed by the elites to enrich themselves on top. You then assert that because this process creates inequality, it becomes necessary to activate wealth "redistribution" policies to achieve some sort of rebalancing after the event. I won't deny that some of that goes on.
But redistribution is not always preceded by initial unfair distribution caused by government, as you claim. It can actually be caused by inadequate regulation of the money-making machine. (EG: Microsoft dominate the global op/sys market - not thru government policy/action to create inequality - but thru inadequate regulation of MS's dubious bully-boy business practices). One could argue that the mistake here is not government action but government inaction. A failure to apply anti-trust laws.
Truth is there are many reasons for a nation's decline and the article sets out some of the major reasons. Inequality of wealth is only one. Social distraction is another. IE: the mass of society focusing its attention on petty and trivial topics and ignoring far more important issues.
My own comment further back also implies that a nation has some things in common with human life: it has a life span and its death is inevitable and unavoidable. And this would be the case whatever government policies are enacted.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-22/how-country-dies#comment-488304...
One sign that Heinlein points out relates to the condition of public bathrooms/toilets. I thought that sounded a bit silly when I first read it some years ago but old Robert was clearly an astute observer (or heard/read it from someone else who was). Certainly here in the UK, there has been a drastic decline in public toilets - where they still even exist, that is. Many have been quietly closed down, without replacement. The ones that are still around are cleaned infrequently, in poor repair and most often havens for druggies/dealers, prostitutes and others of a seedy bent that need a few minutes out of the public eye (the crapper being one of the few places where the governement can't install CCTV very easily - yet! They'll come up with a justification soon, I'm sure!) to conduct whatever business they are engaged in.
And why are people needing "toilets" provided by others?
It's a tough issue for sure. Having pay toilets would seem like a good idea, but I figure, as people are people, some will USE more than others and that then would bring up the issue of some sort of enforcement.
Sad part of this is that one dauy we'll look back on all this as quite insignificant...
Homeless
Tourist/Has a home, but not here.
Just gotta go and can't make it home.
"Tourist/Has a home, but not here."
That's an issue for the local tourism council. I'd think that as a tourist one would be paying to stay somewhere where there's a toilet; and, if they're "not there" then they're likely patronizing some place that does.
Eventually the "few" won't be able to pay for toilets for everyone. That'll end up being fact. I leave everyone else to promote "solutions" (I do not).
hey bro, can u spare a quarter for a shit?
will work for crapper money
I can't spare a square.
,,,,elaine.
Where did Heinlein write that?
in an upscale Detroit suburb the working mom reviewing her pre-schooler's homework sees the phrase written by her child "How a frog grow."
at school pick-up next day she sees "How a frog grow" hung on all the walls, on all the children's papers. realizing the minority teacher's ebonic mistake, said parent approaches school supervisor and is told there is nothing they can do because it's culturally sensitive.
mom finds new pre-school.
America's dead already.
So, how a frog grow?
he grow in stages, from da tadpole to da full-blowed frog.
Empires collapse in stages. No single thing (other than a failure to continue to pull growth out of the finite hat) is the CAUSE. But, hey, if you want to blame others for the built-in wall-hitting collapse then go ahead. Oh, and I'm sture that TPTB are laughing at people like you too...
word
You said it wrongly...
"So How do a frog Grow?"
Fixed it for ya...
r u axing how da frogg growed?
It be growen day by day mufucker.
30% of all teens are on a prescription drug LONG TERM, according to the Wall street Journal. Some are on more than one drug.
As everyone knows one drug leads to two, and three, and five, and so on.
There is no stat that tells us the future of America more than the 30% stat above.
The nation is sick and growing sicker with each pill taken.
By the time those teens are in their early 30's, most will become invalids.
America is dying from within.
PS. Digestive diseases have doubled since the introduction of GMO's into foods. IOW, it's going to get worse faster than it has already gotten.
And any schoolboy who acts like a schoolboy is immediately prescribed Ritalin.
And then a very small % on the meds(thankfully very small) start acting out violent behavior and shooting up schools and stuff.
That's right.
Some of them graduate to SSRI's.
Every school mass shooting except one has involved a shooter who was either on one of those drugs or had abruptly stopped taking them. In the one exception, the medical history was not made known.
Quote From a Famous Patriot & War-Decorated Leader
"Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.
"But, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
John McCain? John Kerry? Wonder who said it (Sarc)
John Hermann Kerry Goering McCain?
And on the Nazi's belt buckle: Gott Mit Uns.
Stunning how much confidence they have in the military. They are just the enforment arm of the congress.
Yeah, noticed that too. Also why so much more confidence in president. Not just this one, but president is always higher than congress.
Because the serfs naturally gravitate toward a lord master.
Does homeland security count as military?
All countries die the same way, "fraud finance."
Fixed it.
A Message to George W. Bush and Dick Cheney From a Dying Veteran
http://www.truthdig.com/dig/item/the_last_letter_20130318
To me this poll and article both show overall what a paranoid bunch the american people have become. The mainstream is playing catch up to the tinfoil hat crowd, it seems.
Yes, the world is a scary place...
I don't trust patriots or nationalists. People that say they want to do good for the country. I especially distrust people that want to restore X to former glory Y from the past. Flag waving, chest thumping idiots. Never trust someone willing to die for some abstract notion like god or lines or the sand, red or otherwise.
Politics is narcissism. Economy is the politics of getting shit you want.
Totally correct!
"Yes, the world is a scary place..."
Not as scary as it's going to be. And if "you want to see something really scary:" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETC6NSxpFFE
Americans have always been a pretty paranoid bunch who distrusted and took it out on the local inhabitants where they went (sorry Native Americans) and on the latest groups to emigrate to the US. I agree with you especially about the chest-bumping, flag-lapel idiots especially among the political crowd when it comes to politicians although we could use a bit more nationalism on the economic side. Long-been a 'I got mine' and screw the rest mentality which has had disasterous effects from top-to-bottom.
The Police? 53%??
Perhaps the respondents were thinking of the Sumner, Copeland and Summers trio and their chances of another reunion tour?
Bla Bla Bla
What about the actual "take down" of a country from within? How about the country that sends its manufacturing overseas, deregulates its worst financial offenders, makes undead corporations "people" with unlimited ability to bribe the idiot legislators, or the supreme legal authority complicity with the above and affliliated in unholy ways with external enemies who are so rich and jaded they can decide to destroy a nation like a spoiled brat who wants a new toy?
Yawn... it's what's called an "empire," it's what happens to ALL empires. Read Glubb:
http://www.rexresearch.com/glubb/glubb-empire.pdf
El Wrongo. There's no likely about it, they knew it well. This dude Shakespeare wrote a play about it, check it out, it must be on Instagram or something, the old Republic falling into tyranny. They knew it intimately for hundreds of years as each new dictator raised taxes because of failing programs, because hordes of immigrants slowly moved into town - or burned it down. It was nothing subtle.
" They knew it intimately for hundreds of years as each new dictator raised taxes because of failing programs, because hordes of immigrants slowly moved into town - or burned it down. It was nothing subtle."
No, they thought that those were the reasons for the collapse. The actual CAIUSE was in their own over-consumption, their inability to grow as promoted by ALL rulers. The trick has always been to fool people into the work-your-asses-off-for-growth-so-that-TPTB-can-rule-over-you meme. And when this starts to fail, as it ALWAYS does, the next big trick is to blame it on anything other than the flawed premise of growth: TPTB believe that if they keep this lie hidden that they can pull it out and work it to their advantage again, after the dust settles- it also keeps them from being the main targets (the "hordes of immigrants" become the promoted distraction/targets). And, yes, this time it's NOT different...
Folks should consider Japan's current situation:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/03/14/national/politics-diplomacy/...
Bring in "immigrants" to serve as the lightning rod for when growth eventually fails (certainty). That's the function that they don't want to bring awareness to. But, for sure, TPTB there will gain from it, just as all do that employ required labor at low wages. It'll happen, all that is necessary is to first program everyone to accept it...
I'm just citing evidence they knew about the decline, the reasons for it were likely as many and as complex as in Gibbon and then some, and they didn't even have twitter.
verse #8 from Desolation Row c 1965
Now at midnight all the agents
And the superhuman crew
Come out and round up everyone
That knows more than they do
Then they bring them to the factory
Where the heart attack machine
Is strapped across their shoulders
And then the kerosene
Is brought down from the castles
By insurance men who go
Check to see that nobody is escaping
to Desolation Row
I'm aware. I'm leaving.
I'm aware. I'm "not there."
Leaving... but to where? I would like to leave, but there seems to be nowhere to go.
The death of a country occurs even faster when its own government is complicit in its destruction:
Stunning: DHS solicited bids for vendor to handle 65,000 unaccompanied minors -- IN JANUARY!American Thinker, June 20, 2014
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/06/stunning_dhs_solicited_bids_...
FBO Solicitation: https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=c6d7c0050b912fbc917...
Escort Services for Unaccompanied Alien ChildrenSolicitation Number: BERKS-RFI Agency: Department of Homeland Security Office: Immigration & Customs Enforcement Location: ICE-OAQ-DM Synopsis : Added: Jan 29, 2014 3:19 pm See Attachment.
General Information: Notice Type: Sources Sought, Posted Date: January 29, 2014, Response Date: Feb 19, 2014 11:59 pm Eastern
The increase in taxes is for the children. The children just happen to be illegal aliens.
Suicide of a nation.
Countries die because a small group of people "capture" the economy by using massive amounts of fiat illegally gained to continue to do so. If they are not invaded, by war, then the taxable 90% is lost due to gross over taxation and no money velocity. The programs to help the not so lucky and underprivileged are there to collect their votes in order to maintain the system status quo. Bread and circus, it's nothing new, it's how you control a civilization. Until they rise up and chop your head off.
Um... no. That's the "effects." The "cause" is overrunning your abilities to provide from within your land mass/country. It happens to all that seek perpetual growth, it leads to all sorts of games/stories aimed at covering up why things are not holding up (or making stories proclaiming that things are fine when in fact they are not).
WAY too many people get hooked on the ideological BS (think you're not programmed? ha!).
Two FACTS:
1. ALL empires collapse (and the reasons have NOTHING to do with the kinds of rulers OR what ideology is/was practiced- read: http://www.rexresearch.com/glubb/glubb-empire.pdf).
2. ANY group of people or system predicated on perpetual growth WILL fail, as we're on a finite planet (yes, it's not a totally closed system, but for all purposes other than mental masturbation it can be considered closed). (I leave folks to find the most convenient literature on the "exponential function" for confirming why this is a fact.)
Fact #2 is what effectively drives/causes Fact #1.
Got it for you SEER.
(Yes, You got it. GROWTH ! is the problem)
Of course it's Albert Bartlett.
The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (part 1 of 8)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
"The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See" is in no way an exaggeration!
From the moment I watched it (I actually sent off for a paid copy of the video and the book) my life changed dramatically. I was able to accept it because I've tended to have an open mind: adhering to Bertrand Russell's "I wouldn't die for my beliefs because I might be wrong" philosophy- I search out for facts and trust only logic.
Between Bartlett and that Sir John Glubb writing on empires the two pretty much give it all away. Makes being a "Seer" pretty easy: the Big Picture is quite clear.
don't worry we in the US are still a long ways off. the tylers still free to push their chickenlittle b.s. amateur hour sedition on this site...the day you guys get rounded up in the middle of the night and machine guned into a ditch is when people can start becoming concerned...hell US will probably last a good 500 years after that. So what if the the reuplic is dead? long live the m fking empire.
Empires might continue on in name, but as far as influence goes... And let's face it, the US's power has been all about its ability to control the world's economy through the manipulation of currency (USD). The contraction will, as the saying goes, happen slowly and then all at once. This isn't the old world of carts and horses, this is the computerized world where EVERYTHING happens quickly.
Feel free to use whatever denigrations you feel you must in order to support your inactions. For sure, thinking and acting proactively takes a bit of mental acuity and hard work, things that not all are capable of.
The 'system' is a big, bad liar. It does these massive deceptions by omission, which do great harm in our democracy.
Intro
http://www.showrealhist.com/yTRIAL.html
The Public Be Suckered
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1230886
I am certain that it is a far, far better thing for our nation if the people have their heads OUT of their fuming darknesses.
TRUE history:
http://www.rexresearch.com/glubb/glubb-empire.pdf
ALL empires collapse, and it's got NOTHING to do with being "liars*" or whatnotl.
* Unless one actually goes to the REAL source of the lie: that we can have perpetual growth on a finite planet. I challenge readers to identify ANY known system that does not necessitate/promote growth at its core. All that one can claim of their "superior" ideological premise is that it's the best looking horse at the glue factory...
But it is about liars. Think about putting efforts, energy and resources to organize ourselves instead of the infinite struggle, the massacres, the slaughtering, the killing, the poisenings, the huge waste of everything going on.
Thing is there are many theories, lots of "news" and gvt statements but each one of us with our knowledge, skills, good faith, honesty and intentions to contribute to society etc. have little chances of knowing what a hell is actually going on, why, how.
Too much sh...t.- Cognitive dissonance.
Frustration grows exponentially.
"But it is about liars. Think about putting efforts, energy and resources to organize ourselves instead of the infinite struggle, the massacres, the slaughtering, the killing, the poisenings, the huge waste of everything going on."
ABSTRACTIONS!
I'm talking PURE math here. Organizing for what? To steal more? Are you going to lobby for the 750 MILLION folks in India living on$0.50/day? 2/3s of the world's popluation lives on $3/day or less. Remove ALL the "liars" and these numbers get changed how?
"the massacres, the slaughtering, the killing, the poisenings, the huge waste of everything going on."
In no way am I going to defend these, but if we don't do it to ourselves nature WILL. There's 7+ BILLION of us. We didn't get to this size of a population being primarily barbarians: Peter Kropotkin's "Mutal Aid" is an intersting read on an argument that humans are far more cooperative than competitive. To the heart of the matter, here's Dr. Albert Bartlett (http://old.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645):
"infinite struggle, the massacres, the slaughtering, the killing, the poisenings, the huge waste of everything "
Abstractions?
life is but a dream.
Hans Rosling attacked this issue in a recent TED talk. (https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth)
He predicts that birth rates will go down as women become more educated. Death rates have more or less stabilized outside of war torn areas, and absent any new push in medical technology (not a given, but not unforeseeable, either) will remain about where they are.
As Rosling shows, population should level out around 9 billion. I'm not suggesting that's a picnic, but it's not quite the doom described above.
As a nation dies its people are numbed by various forces including their own dis-belief that it is possible. Those that see the writing on the wall and fight until its a lost cause and then leave, are seen negatively by even those who fight but remain. Many of those who remain hide in their enclaves, meanwhile easy targets are picked off first like farmers (thank God it not me they think). Over time the misery spreads to the enclaves and most suffer while quite a few adapt to a new normal and a new system that they must grasp to survive and get by in. History repeating nation after nation, there is no exceptional-ism except in short term memory.
"Many of those who remain hide in their enclaves, meanwhile easy targets are picked off first like farmers"
Were you aware that there's some 2 billion people living and working on small farms in the "undeveloped" world? In the US there's something like 3 million involved in small farm agriculture and livestock.
The greatest opposition "forces" are always to be found out in rural areas.
Food, Shelter and Water. Community. Simple life.
You speak a simple truth that the refined city dwellers will not understnd.
Predator drones were designed with rural areas in mind.
Everyone hates Congress but they keep sending the same assholes back to Washington!
No, they don't.
Diebold does.
Rome lasted another 1000 years you stupid f ks, it was called Byzantium
It wasn't called Byzantium, it was called the Roman Empire. Byzantium was the old name of the eastern capital, which was renamed Constaninople in the 4th century. The name Byzantine Empire became popular among historians in the 18th or 19th century, it wasn't used by the inhabitants of the empire or anyone else during that time. The empire itself became more of a weird Greek/Slavic hybrid as time passed.
Err.. no. Byzantium was the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire, which became Constantinople and now Istanbul. A sign of the decline in itself when the Roman empire became too large to manage and the east got separated from the west and for most practical purposes lasted longer than Rome's Roman Empire.
this country is dying quickly
For some reason this list kept presenting itself, and then I realized there is a HUGE REASON TO HAVE HOPE------if you look at the groups people have confidence in, they are the least retarded, so perhaps there is still hope for humanity---hey, I will take positive when I can get it----military, small business, the police------well, that is reason for hope my friends because I don't very many retarded military and small business (real small busines, not paper traded) people to speak of---they are some of the most well-informed citizens we have. So, perhaps there is hope from this survey---let's rejoice in a small victory!
Not to destroy your hope, these organizations act rationally as long as they are being financially supported, just like the sheeple on govt assistance. You can only print fiat for so long. If, and a big if, Russia and China and India got their shit together, they could destroy the USD in less than 6 months.
I think Russell Brand hit the nail on the head when he spoke up at the Austerity Rally in London this weekend – about where power is...
"Power isn't there, it is here, within us," he added. "The revolution that's required isn't a revolution of radical ideas, but the implementation of ideas we already have."
We have Jails, Judges & Judiciaries but we are not using them.
All These Corporate & State raiders should be in prison.
It is as simple as the implementation of ideas we already have.
IMPLEMENTATION.
Unfortunately the "changing of the guard" always, eventually results in the "same old."
Humans have proven time and time again incapable of managing power. I'd like to think that some day we'd figure this out and opt to not create hierarchical structures that endowed anyone with more power than that of an individual (oh, and not the joke that has become the person "corporate entity").
I sometimes wonder whether there were any/many Romans who were sick of the system and actually muttered to themselves "Why don't these fucking barbarians get their act together and put an end to it all?"
They did exactly that.
Taxes went up and up. The government clipped coins. Demands from government increased until people fled Rome for the barbarian tribes. Whole regions simply invited the 'Barbarians' to rule in place of the Roman governors.
This became such a problem for Rome, who could not afford to repeatedly re-conquer these regions, that they raised taxes, and clipped coins to economically depress the Empire. And then they generously 'lent' the money back to the people from whom it had originated.
Next they declared that it was illegal for anyone with such a debt to move or to change professsions until their 'debts' had been paid. Children of the indebted were held liable for their parents debt, and were intentionally taxed such that the debt could not be repaid.
SOUND FAMILIAR?
This law required the indebted to remain 'tied to the land' for which their back taxes were due. And, of course, this was the genesis of Feudalism.
When Rome 'fell' to Odoacer, it was actually a revolt and not a Barbarian attack.
Odoacer had been named a patrician by a previous Emperor - Emperor Zeno. A very pragmatic action given that the bulk of the Roman Army was made up of 'Barbarians' who politically followed Odoacer. Specifically, Odoacer was a Scirian, a germanic tribe probably from what is today Holland and Sweden.
The Roman Army had become majority foreign, made up mostly of Herulian, Rugian, and Scirian soldiers.
The Roman elite had become consumed by looting via the treasury, and then consumed by internicine struggles and conspiracies amongst themselves to capture loot and power. They were not interested in anything like real governance - only in their money, power and pleasure.
SOUND FAMILIAR?
Augustulus - the last emperor - was just the son of a rebelious general who had declared himself emperor by fiat and left the Empire to his son when he was subsequently killed.
So, when the Roman elite were too self consumed to manage themselves, much less their country, Odoacer led the revolt of the foreign-born Roman soldiers and captured Rome.
The Senate was more than happy to do as Odoacer wished. He was the most stable leader Rome had had in decades if not centuries.
When the elite of society take an attitude of "Apres Moi, le Deluge" and focus on laying hands on whatever they can by whatever means they can, they guarantee that the Deluge will come.
In the West it can now come any day.
The issue is the moral decay of society. When everyone is consumed with behaviors that are not sustainable, they dont get sustained.
Civiliazations come and civilizations go. But quality of human life has consistently improved over time. So what if the Roman empire is dead, I think a Italian guy today is better off than his counterpart 2000 years ago. Somethings have not changed - Berlusconi still gets his orgies. And now they have synthetic drugs too and counted as part of the GDP.
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21603073-italys-incl...
Given the level of globalization that we have today, we should not be worried too much about the death of one nation. Of more concern, would be the decline of human civilization as a whole.
Government and those that are corrupt control Your MONEY...............................................................
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=293288306
Bonuses for the Cronies at the VA.
Politics is a part of any transaction in which more than one person is a party.
The problem arises when a job is ALL politics, ALL the time. as it is in so many corporations, and nearly 100% in government and nearly all institutional jobs. So if you kiss the right asses, eat the crow, and otherwise use your time to curry favor with your superiors, you can't help but fail to carry out your duties and responsibilities. There isn't enough time in a day to do both.
The downfall of any entity can be traced dot for dot to the per cent that politics plays in the work.
It has always been all politics at the VA all the time, so it should come as no surprise that bonuses were paid to the suckups. And will not be taken away from them.
At the CDC today, the person ultimately responsible for the fuckup with Anthrax, instead of being fired outright, is "reassigned". Even in a highly political company in the Fortune 500, someone who screws up royally is likely to be "reassigned" based on what church he attends, whose bowling team needs him, what cookies she bakes and for whom. It's only the apolitical animal in a primarily politically oriented organization, dedicated to the work, duty, and responsibility that gets fired for "Ineffective Communications".
In four days the Battle of the Little Bighorn will remembered once again after 138 years.
On June 26, 1876, George Armstrong Custer was stupid enough to think that the natives were too stupid to do anything about the oppression and atrocities suffered by native Americans, and all he had to do was to continue business as usual and all would be well.
It works until it doesn't.
All empires have a begining and an end. The US is heading toward an end point fast.
Like "is", you need to define, "fast".
A country dies when its women spread their legs for the invaders.
Insightful article! The signs of our decline are all around us. But the last crisis, that will result from a national apostasy and which will seal our doom, will come as an overwhelming surprise. The United States helped lead the world out of the Dark Ages, it is now leading the world back. A minority will be singled out as the cause of our problems and the United States world will lead the world in stirring up enmity against it to the point of attempted genocide. Right now most can not handle the truth and would laugh it to scorn if they heard it, but they will be awakened from their fatal security when it is too late to escape the snare. In the rapid repudiation of our civil liberties, our leaders are working in blindness. They do not see that if a government sacrifices the principles that have made them a free, independent nation, and through legislation brings into the laws principles at war with that grand old document, our Constitution, they are plunging into the horrors of the Dark Ages.
The Good Book says that "at the time of the end" there will be "a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time: and at that time thy people shall be delivered, every one that shall be found written in the book." Daniel 12:1. Our nation's increasing national apostasy is a sure sign that the prophesied "time of trouble" is not far off.
"The United States helped lead the world out of the Dark Ages, it is now leading the world back. "
Typical American-centric viewpoint. The US didn't lead anyone out of the Dark Ages; they were done some 300 years before the US became a nation.
The US is founded on Barbarism (limey kind)
This country is dying by lies.
Here is a young man on the ground in Iraq who says ISIS is only 5% of the fighters
the rest are tribal. Even the Shites are fed up with the Iraqi government.
The photos of the ISIS looked staged to me from day one. Bright white tennis shoes
look like they haven't been fighting at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVf1QEVIcdE