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Roger Kubarych: Talking Points on Energy

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Here is the latest from Roger Kubarych c/o Craig Drill Capital -- Chris

Four key issues drive policy making in several major countries: national security, energy security, economic growth and prosperity, and global climate protection.  Despite the importance of each, they are often in conflict.

Impressive development over the past four or five years of shale gas and tight oil resources, mainly in the US or by US firms, has yielded broad benefits to global energy security, as well as to the US economy.  But it is not clear that overall US national security has been enhanced or that environmental resources have been adequately protected.

Energy security is not synonymous with energy independence.  The US, for example, is not and cannot be energy independent given the current fleet of over 250 million vehicles that burn gasoline or diesel.  A shift toward electric cars is unlikely to eliminate this oil dependence for at least 20 years, based on likely 15-year useful life of the current vehicle population and prospective additions to the fleet over the medium-term.

So energy independence will indefinitely depend on having some oil imports, admittedly at half or more below the peaks reached in the mid-2000s.  The US, however, could be readily energy independent from the perspective of electricity generation because of bountiful coal resources and growing availability of shale gas. 

Energy security for the US, therefore, must also hinge on providing for enhanced security of key sources of oil imports.  The same is true for China.  By contrast, for many countries in Europe and parts of Asia with more availability of mass transit and smaller distances for drivers generally, energy security hinges on inputs to electricity generation, notably natural gas.

National security requires healthy relations with strong, dependable allies.  Canada is a prime example of a strong US ally.  Retaining access to oil imports from Canada, now running at over 2 million barrels per day should remain a high priority for US energy security.  So too would efforts to engage Canada and Mexico in a hemisphere-wide initiative.

In the view of many Canadian private and public sector observers, however, Canada is being treated shabbily by serial delay in US approval of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline.  Delay is forcing transit via rail.  The latter is not as safe or as cost effective with the result that Canadian oil from Alberta faces discounts of up to $20 a barrel in the marketplace.

And from a purely domestic standpoint, the movement of 750,000 barrels per day of US tight oil is overstressing the rail system, resulting in both serious derailments of oil unit trains and creating other economically significant dislocations in the capacity of railroads to move other commodities, such as fertilizer, grains, and steel with a degree of efficiency.  

Losing the trust and respect of some Canadian leaders is now incentivizing them to reach out to China and other Asian energy-deficit countries jointly to develop pipelines to Canada’s West Coast for long-term shipments to the Asian market, either for oil, liquefied natural gas or both.  A deeper economic relationship between Canada and China, in particular, would seriously impair US energy security and further complicate US-China relations, already strained by Chinese belligerence in the east and south China seas.

Climate threats further confound energy and economic policy decisions.  For now, and well into the 2020s, the single largest contributor to CO2 emissions are coal-fired power plants, which are essential to sustaining rapid economic growth in energy-deficit Asian countries, especially China and India.  No meaningful response to concerns about climate change is feasible without large-scale cuts in coal use there and in several other emerging market countries. 

There is no obvious way for the US or European or other environmentally concerned countries to prod China and India to make convincing cuts in burning coal in the medium term.  Proposed cuts in US or European coal-fired power plants may assuage domestic critics, but will be viewed by Chinese and Indian leaders as largely symbolic. 

Technical advances to reduce greenhouse emissions are being pursued by research oriented universities and engineering centers in the US and elsewhere.  While several avenues appear promising, getting them out of the labs into industrial processes soon is proving to be nearly impossible.

European and Japanese business and academic experts are concerned that the US will practice a version of “resource nationalism” that the US normally strongly warns against elsewhere.  In part, this could take the form of worrying that the US Navy will withdraw from policing sea lanes, thereby jeopardizing the safe transport of merchandise across the globe.  In part, there is also a fear of shifting some of their industrial companies, and with it jobs, to the US due to the advantage of low natural gas and electricity prices.  These companies already own/control over half of the US chemical industry, so expansion is fairly straightforward.  This is described in the foreign media as unfair behavior by the US.

The US has a compelling comparative advantage in oil refining and has become a substantial net exporter of refined petroleum products, especially diesel.  Partly this is because of Europe’s own policies that discourage new or expanded refineries that are unpopular with voters.  Partly the US enjoys technical advantages gained through expertise in handling heavier Canadian and Venezuelan oil.  This competitive advantage would be further enhanced by construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.

The technological advantage that the US is currently enjoying in fracking will gradually wane and it is likely that numerous countries will begin to adopt the shale technologies in the coming years.  But by 2020, this will make only a modest contribution to global gas and tight oil supplies, given the various geological, water, legal and policy impediments that will not disappear overnight.

Technology on renewables continues to move ahead, but there is a big obstacle to a major shift in electricity generation:  the absence of sufficient storage battery capabilities.  Two CEOs of leading European energy companies cite this deficiency as the critical factor impeding wide market penetration by solar and wind generation.

Finally, it is worth noting that the world has experienced a number of major supply shocks during the same time period in which US tight oil development added over 2.5 million barrels per day to US output, with commensurate declines in US oil imports.  They include Libya, South Sudan, Iran (because of the impact of sanctions), Nigeria, and Syria.  Yet, volatility of global crude oil prices was less in those three years than in the previous twenty years.  This may have been a contributor to lessened US import demand. 

But more significant was the timely and robust responses of Saudi Arabia -- and until very recently Iraq -- as the swing producers in the OPEC cartel.  US diplomatic overtures to the Saudis were helpful in persuading them to play this market stabilizing role, even as the two countries do not always see eye-to-eye on many foreign policy challenges.

 

 

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Mon, 06/23/2014 - 20:52 | 4887739 Seer
Seer's picture

Here, jump into bed with this other fucker:

The rebirth of the American shopping mall

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/the-rebirth-of-the-american-...

You pimps are disgusting.

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 20:02 | 4887565 Seer
Seer's picture

<rant>

Can we put bullets through the skulls of these idiots?  I'm not a violent person, but somewhere along the line we've got to do something about them...

"The US, however, could be readily energy independent from the perspective of electricity generation because of bountiful coal resources and growing availability of shale gas. "

No, you dumb fucker, you cannot make this into any meaningful statement unless you factor in growth rates!  You, who probably commands a far greater revenue than most humans on this planet, are unable to apply simple fucking logic/math, and you're an "expert?"  You want to meet me on a stage some place and I'll offer up all that I have against all that you have in a debate on who the fuck understands REAL logic and MATH.  The likes of you need to be hung up and humiliated as an example of why you don't deserve to waste anyone else's time, or suck money off of others!

Fucking two-dimensional thinkers!

</rant>

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 14:37 | 4886386 VangelV
VangelV's picture

Impressive development over the past four or five years of shale gas and tight oil resources, mainly in the US or by US firms, has yielded broad benefits to global energy security, as well as to the US economy.  

Impressive?  I suggest that all of the naive optimists look at the 10-K filings and the changes made by the SEC.  The great shale boom has been fuled by an even bigger credit boom in the sector and the only place where shale makes sense are the small core areas in the decent formations.  Most shale formations are not economic, which is why the debt in the sector has been exploding and why the accountants are using depreciation schedules derived from thoretical models that estimate ultimte returns rather than conclusions derived from the actual produciton data.  

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 14:57 | 4886456 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  Never before has so much CAPEX been deployed by the energy companies in order to simply maintain current production levels...

 

Hedge accordingly.

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 12:45 | 4885949 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Take a look at the miles driven you moron. This is the biggest collapse in the US economy in history.

"Driving" has been a commercial and Government activity for some time. The problem is that these two are working at cross purposes...where the Government is wasting energy beyond belief and the commercial side is throwing everything into not using fossil fuels ever again.

Production has soared, energy prices have moved closer to the "global norm" and the dollar is having spectacular moves against the yen.

The amount of cash being raised by corporate interests are the greatest in history. This capital is no longer "merely" being used to buy back stock but now to buy entire foreign capital entities. (Alstom, attempt on Glaxo.)

In the meantime the cash just sits there as the spending bender " runs it's course" with US growth choking on Wall Street shit paper.

"More extreme measures will be called for shortly."

Tue, 06/24/2014 - 13:30 | 4889882 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

this is something i've tried drawing attention to disabled vet. 

 

so many corporate deals recently have been an attempt at essentially buying entities of national or multi-regional importance. 

 

these 'size' deals are not simply 'capitalism' they are something more complicated and akin to a secret game of oligarchs trying to force each other to sell. 

when this game of musical chairs ends, much supply will be taken offline to keep prices up, which means things will get far more expensive for whomever is left of the middle class that can afford to pay for goods. 

and i mean this, on an international level as applied to the west. the east can have 10 collapses and stil grow as they are starting from a point of poverty so low, that their path forward is one of growing pains, not death throws. 

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 20:04 | 4887579 Seer
Seer's picture

Up arrow!

Yes, it's pretty indicative of the end of growth, isn't it?

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 12:06 | 4885803 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

http://i.imgur.com/1k7TRq6.gif

 

Flake whe she discovers it IS the sun after all

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 15:00 | 4886474 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Here is your chance to win $10,000

http://dialoguesonglobalwarming.blogspot.com/p/1000-global-warming-skept...

Put your money where your mouth is....

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 20:47 | 4887721 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture
India to open civilian nuclear programme to greater scrutiny

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/23/uk-india-nuclear-idINKBN0EY14O2...

 

 

(Reuters) - India said on Monday it was ratifying an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to expand oversight of its civilian nuclear programme, in a move aimed at unblocking a major nuclear partnership with the United States.

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 17:29 | 4887093 doctor10
doctor10's picture

relaaxxx. Gaia is accomodating nicely. without a few more billions of Fedbux being tossed into the human science mill. Without a carbon tax.  Without Al Gore.

See "peak oil" is nature's way of dealing with it-it just happens in a time frame and on a scale that is barely humanly comprehensible. Which is why "studying" it is not a particularly productivve exercise and arguably may be a waste of money.

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 19:56 | 4887536 Seer
Seer's picture

And smoking was good for you too!  (until studies proved otherwise)

Mon, 06/23/2014 - 19:53 | 4887524 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

That is what I always thought as well until I studied the problem more closely...

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