America's Most Important Housing Market Signals A Red Alert For Housing Bubble Watchers

Tyler Durden's picture

When it comes to critical housing markets in the US, none is more important than San Francisco.

Courtesy of its location, not only does it reflect the general Fed-driven liquidity bubble which is the tide rising all housing boats across the US, but due to its proximity to both Silicon Valley and China, it also benefits from two other liquidity bubbles: that of tech, and of course, the Chinese $25 trillion financial debt monster, where since the local housing bubble has burst, local oligarchs have no choice but to dump their cash abroad.

It is no surprise that during ever single previous bubble peak, San Francisco home prices managed to post a 20% annual increase, starting with the dot com bubble in the year 2000, and certainly the first (not to be confused with the current) housing bubble peaking around 2005.

Which is why, while today's Case Shiller data was widely disappointing across the board, indicating a significant slowdown in price gains (and on a sequential seasonally adjusted basis, practically a decline), the one market we paid particular attention to was San Francisco. What we found is a red flag for everyone waiting to time the bursting of the latest housing bubble. Because after an unlucky 13 months of posting consecutive 20% Y/Y price gains, the San Francisco bubble appears to have finally burst, posting "just" an 18.2% price increase, the lowest since January of 2013.

So, has the global coordinated credit bubble burst? Judging by stocks, which just traded at their all time highs, ironically based on housing data from the West (as we just reported) not yet. As for the wealthiest buyers of homes, usually the best leading indicator of easy financial conditions: they appear to be quietly putting up for sales signs in front of their bay area mansions.