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"An Unforgettable Winter" - Bank Of America's "Explanation" For The 17th Worst GDP Print In US History

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so the polar bears penguins come out of hibernation, "explaining" today's disastrous GDP print. Randomly selected for your reading pleasure, here is Bank of Frigid America's Ethan Harris spiking the Kool Aid with an above Surgeon General recommended dose of hopium.

An unforgettable winter

 

We caution against reading too much into the weakness, as it is clear that special factors during the quarter distorted growth. The severe winter weather weighed heavily on consumption, fixed investment and trade. Furthermore, there was a notable inventory drawdown that amounted to a 1.7pp drag on growth, following two strong quarters of inventory build in 3Q and 4Q of 2013. Despite the deeper contraction in this final release, we are not revising 2Q GDP growth. We continue to expect a 4.0% rebound in the second quarter, and the recent data suggest that we are headed in that direction. However, uncertainty around this number remains elevated: there could continue to be special factors at play stemming from the weakness in 1Q. Moreover, benchmark GDP revisions, released with the first estimate of 2Q GDP in July, could alter the trajectory.

 

Assuming 4.0% growth in 2Q and solid 3.0% growth in 2H, growth will still only average 1.7% this year. It certainly was not the start of the year we were hoping for.

Putting today's GDP print in context, here is J. Lyons Fund Management which shows that the final Q1 GDP print was the 17th worst in US history.

 

Or, said another way, it was their fault.

 

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Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:05 | 4894322 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Can't make this stuff up.  Incredible.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:08 | 4894333 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

And just wait for the El Nino and the apparent grand solar minimum coming. Should be an interesting decade or two ahead.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:11 | 4894356 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The future will be more interesting than ever.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:12 | 4894361 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Unforgettable Kondratiev winter.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:14 | 4894380 CH1
CH1's picture

Because Global Warming?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:17 | 4894406 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

At least stocks aren't affected by the weather...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:19 | 4894413 flacon
flacon's picture

Heads I win, tails I win. Extreme cold I win, extreme hot I win. 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:31 | 4894464 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Global warming causes record cold winters which cause the economy to shit a brick in the summer!

Being a Democrat means you have a mental disorder.....

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:34 | 4894486 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hedgetarderiffic!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:22 | 4895041 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Flak, say I am convinced, which I can be, if your side would quit cheating for 5 minutes of a warming planet, What is the specific energy source that the entire planet, 1st world and BRICS will use to adapt?  Energy density says if we abandon oil/coal we must halve the population I see no way around it, even if we live in mud huts and use solar ovens there are too many of us, who chooses the winners and losers, in detail please..

Your either a HUGE proponent of advanced nuclear energy or a Malthusian I would guess..

 

 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:35 | 4895086 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

We either figure out a combination of decentralized solar with a dispersed wind/solar/hydro baseline or die trying...

Existing nukes are part of the solution. Long term, Nukes ain't....

Coal is the real killer in more ways than one. Peak oil will wean us of indiscriminate burning of oil...

I wish the answers were obvious and easy. They ain't...

But to do nothing is simply calling for civilization to play a Thelma and Louise...

Or for those rockers out there, Bon Scott...

"death by misadventure"

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:43 | 4895127 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Wasn't it really cold and snowy 2 winters ago too ?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:52 | 4895163 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Always the solution giver...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 19:25 | 4895719 Enoch
Enoch's picture

check out FLIBE Energy and the thorium liquid salt reactor ;)

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 20:03 | 4895840 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sure, can you point me to a good commercial design?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 21:41 | 4896201 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Thorium is coming and the fuel is extracted from coal double win.. 

Fri, 06/27/2014 - 09:42 | 4901916 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

U-233 mid cycle will keep Thorium far away. - Ned

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:31 | 4894740 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

Obama has the scam of global warming as his No.#1 priority...

 

..in order to save him from cold winters and a collapsing GDP - can't make this looney tune leftist (Flak) stuff up.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:32 | 4895079 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Interesting to see durable orders drop 1% in May, and then read some dipshit state that data suggests a 4% increase on GDP Q2.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:20 | 4894417 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Or fundamentals.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:30 | 4894359 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

The Q1 rollout of Obamacare had nothing to do with it. It was the weather.  Honest.

The higher premiums, higher deductibles, higher co-insurance, and lower physician reimbursements were not a factor, and neither were the higher taxes and other higher costs of hiring workers.  Ignore United Healthcare's kick-ass profits and rocketing stock price.  It was slightly higher and lower temperatures in certain places.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:33 | 4894470 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Here was a historically cold winter in 1978-79

Winter 78-79 

Compare that the one linked elsewhere in this thread for last winter...

Notice how the rest of the world compares...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:46 | 4894534 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

FRAUD ALERT !!!

"Goddard shows how, in recent years, NOAA’s US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has been “adjusting” its record by replacing real temperatures with data “fabricated” by computer models. The effect of this has been to downgrade earlier temperatures and to exaggerate those from recent decades, to give the impression that the Earth has been warming up much more than is justified by the actual data. In several posts headed “Data tampering at USHCN/GISS”, Goddard compares the currently published temperature graphs with those based only on temperatures measured at the time. These show that the US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record; whereas the latest graph, nearly half of it based on “fabricated” data, shows it to have been warming at a rate equivalent to more than 3 degrees centigrade per century."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/10916086/The-scandal-of-fid...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:48 | 4894563 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Seasonal adjustments for the seasons?  Makes perfect sense to me.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:00 | 4894607 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Check out Flakemaster & Friends adjustments to the US temperature record for the period up to 2000.

The temperatures show in the comparison are US RAW VS ADJUSTED TEMPS

http://www.coyoteblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/1998changesannotate...

 

Anything to add Flakey?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:17 | 4894659 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Don't forget the higher postal rates; hiked twice in a 12 month period. Plus, the internet sales tax (which, incidentally was supported by bnoth Repugnicans and Demobrats)....

Sent many already struggling small businesses down the tube. All part of Barry's Summa of Recovery.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:19 | 4894684 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Like I said, why don't these guys contact Judith or Roy, the only two remaining climate scientists at odds with AGW and get either of them to co-author somehting...

The fact that they don't should be telling you all you need to know...

-----

Just like AW over at WUWT in 2012:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/watts_new_paper_critique.html

Here is the money plot

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/temps.png 

If you don't know what the TOBS bias in in the data, you really should STFU and listen to the experts...

Watts paper has still not be submitted to a real journal...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:39 | 4894774 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

WOW!!!

Only two holdouts.

Anyway... good luck with the fraud and your climate models...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:46 | 4894784 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Actually you are correct, I forget Spencer's colleague at UAH, John Christy....

Who else did I miss?

Ones that have any semblance of credibiliy left are in very short supply...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:57 | 4894885 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Enjoy your 60% probablity of an El Nino.

After that heat exits the system in 2015 you guys are toast.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:33 | 4894757 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

But the AGW cult religion told Flak it was so...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:57 | 4894861 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I can't say it better than this: The latest poster boy for the denialista has been Richard Tol who managed to get a paper published in a third rate journal that questioned the 97% concensus that exists among active climate scientists:

 

Here is Richard Tol's web site and here is a quote in his own words:

"There is no doubt in my mind that the literature on climate change overwhelmingly supports the hypothesis that climate change is caused by humans. I have very little reason to doubt that the consensus is indeed correct." 

http://richardtol.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/draft-comment-on-97-consensus-p...

You are one dumb Hedgetard....

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:20 | 4895030 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Appeal to authority. 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:36 | 4895091 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

\facepalm....

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:29 | 4895069 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

sic ("thus"; in full: sic erat scriptum, "thus was it written")

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 17:31 | 4895331 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

Call me names all you want...

 

..I'm not the one who fell for the false and now completely failed Global Warming (AGW) theory.  The 17+ yrs of non-warming is now longer than the short uptick that lead to this whole scam - how embarrassing for your cult.

 

 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 18:07 | 4895403 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well then demonstrate it with the data taking account the error in the fitted trend...

Once you can do that, I'll remove you from the Hedgetard list..

Because hedgetards who talk about 17 years have demonstrated they have zero credibility...

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/t5.jpg

The line are 67% and 95% CL contours from 1979-1999 fitted trend...

From

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/02/25/by-request/

and

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/uncertain-t/

Finally, for those interested in what I consider a good visual portrayal of the situation, here’s my now-”standard” display of the trend from 1975 through the end of 1999, projected into the future, with dashed lines 1 and 2 standard deviations (of the residuals) above and below the projected trend, compared to the data from 2000 to the present:

Quelle Faux Pause.... 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 21:54 | 4896264 malek
malek's picture

A 97% consensus on such a complex matter has about the significance of a 97% yes vote in the politburo...

and don't get me started who and in which way even measured such a "97% consensus" on AGW.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 23:12 | 4896542 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

How about the 100% concensus on gravity?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 23:36 | 4896603 malek
malek's picture

Not sure where there's a forecast involved in that one...

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 00:20 | 4896687 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

How about thermodynamics? Is 100% good enough for you there?

The *thermodynamics* predicts the earth is going to warm and the real question is exactly how much and how fast. We know that even the lower bound on the amount warming that will occur is enough to put a serious fucking smackdown on the fauna and flora of this world, including us. And in the grand scheme of things, it'll be but a blink of the eye....

You want to bet that it will 200 years instead 100 years?

BTW, Forecasts are for "afternoon showers"...

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 01:24 | 4896766 malek
malek's picture

I give it about a 50% chance that the prediction "the earth is going to warm" is correct. (It's for sure not going to remain constant.)

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 09:16 | 4897276 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Dude, it has been warming against the natural non-anthropogenic trend for well over 100 years....

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 13:08 | 4898405 malek
malek's picture

The medieval warm period lasted hundreds of years - and who again defined what the natural non-anthropogenic trend currently would be?

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 14:06 | 4898732 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

MWP was local not global...

Here is the last 11,000 years, the Milankovitch cycle is clear...

http://skepticalscience.com//pics/regemcrufull.jpg

From earlier, it is now safe to say that you are now claiming thermodynamics is wrong...

Now spare us your descredited memes....

 

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 14:16 | 4898809 malek
malek's picture

0.4 degrees Centigrade - I'm deeply impressed! Oh, and is that a curve on local or global temperatures?

It is now safe to say you will read into statements whatever suits you best...

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 19:38 | 4900243 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Until we found coal that was what "natural cycles" looked like....

Or did you miss that part?

And did you notice the MWP and LIA? 

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 23:52 | 4901077 malek
malek's picture

Coal?
Used for many centuries, heavily used since 1870 - you say AGW actually started back then?

Fri, 06/27/2014 - 09:30 | 4901203 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Funny that you mention it...

http://www.whoi.edu/pclift/Ruddiman.pdf

AGW started the moment our effect on the planet became larger than the variation due to natural processes (which involve slow changes over long periods)...

Clearly at some times, there are processes that will dominate relative to the human impact, like some solar extrema, volcanoes, etc...

Sat, 06/28/2014 - 19:02 | 4905598 malek
malek's picture

 the moment our effect on the planet became larger than the variation due to natural processes

That's a pretty big statement you're making boy.

1. So much is "our effect"? I've read something between 2% and 4% of all annual carbondioxide emissions is nowadays from human activity.

2. "the variation due to natural processes"
a) That variation is less than 4%? (Or actually even much smaller, as you are believe our effect became larger than natural variation long time ago.)
b) Do you truly believe we even know understand all natural processes that lead to variations?

Sun, 06/29/2014 - 01:16 | 4906559 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Read the paper...

And Don;t play games with C02... It is NET emissions that matters...

4% is huge BTW, the 11 year solar cycle is 2-3 parts in a thousand peak to trough...

Compare that the forcing from a change of C02eq from 275 to 278...

It is easy enough to figure out if you are being serious about learning...

Sun, 06/29/2014 - 14:51 | 4907511 malek
malek's picture

Only NET matters - LOL, you mean like the bullshit "only Net of outstanding [financial] derivatives counts"?

The one playing games is your ilk.
You really fumbled with your comparison: "2-3 parts in a thousand" is 0.3%, but CO2 275 to 278 are actually ppms - so a 0.3% increase of CO2 would be 275 * 1.003 = 275.825 ppm
and that doesn't even touch on the logical fallacies underlying that line of thought: why would an increase in solar energy showering the earth equal (or even result in?) a same-factor increase in CO2  in the first place...

So now back to the variation [in CO2 emissions] due to natural processes you brought up:
To even give an estimate on that, one would need to look across the last 1 billion years of earth history, when the formation of oxygen-producers (plants) and oxygen-users (animals) had been basically established. Not just pick the last 10,000 years because its more convenient.
Otherwise one should beware of using such big terms.

Mon, 06/30/2014 - 09:23 | 4909250 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Give it up, you have no idea what you are talking about...

Mon, 06/30/2014 - 13:20 | 4910197 malek
malek's picture

I am still awaiting any succinct response from your side to the points I brought up.

And don't project from your character onto others...

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 13:51 | 4914469 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

What points?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:00 | 4894604 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Zerohead, absolutely, Goddard and his work is indeed fraudulent at some level...

Why is that Judith Curry or Roy Spencer never team up with Goddard and publish a block buster paper? After all they are the two climate scientists that are publically at odds with AGW...

That should be telling you something about SGs intellectual honesty....

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:05 | 4894621 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Everybody with a brain and without a research grant is at odds with CAGW Flakey...

Speaking of honesty... care to go over the Climategate Emails sometime?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:08 | 4894638 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

That dog done quit hunting a long time ago...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:33 | 4894710 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Heres some leaked emails from your self described dogs discussing how to prevent anyone from finding out how they were engaging in fraud and preventing the public from accessing publicly funded data so they couldn't be caught...

 

“I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI [Freedom of Information] Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process,”writes Phil Jones, a scientist working with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in a newly released email.

“Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden,” Jones writes in another newly released email. “I’ve discussed this with the main funder (U.S. Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data.”

 

Care to comment? 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:37 | 4894772 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Recycling snippets of e-mails from 2009 from a 2011 blog post in 2014...

That dog is definately not huntin anymore...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:49 | 4894817 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Fraud in 2009 is still considered fraud in 2011 or 2014 for that matter.

You should go do some PR work for JPM and GS and the rest of the banksters using the same argument... you know... no need to prosecute because banker theft in the 2000's was soooo last decade...

Let me help you...

U R an IDIOT

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:50 | 4894840 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

What fraud?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:52 | 4894852 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Exactly.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:54 | 4894867 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

So we agree, there is no evidence of fraud....

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:10 | 4894940 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture
fraud

[frawd] Show IPA noun
1. deceit, trickery, sharp practice, or breach of confidence, perpetrated for profit or to gain some unfair or dishonest advantage. 2. a particular instance of such deceit or trickery: mail fraud; election frauds. 3. any deception, trickery, or humbug: That diet book is a fraud and a waste of time. 4. a climate scientist; sham; poseur.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 20:16 | 4895880 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

My dog froze to death in the Polar Vortex.

Fri, 06/27/2014 - 09:47 | 4901942 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

0head:

"... has been “adjusting” its record by replacing real temperatures with data “fabricated” by computer models."

Let's translate that for the flakdude:the data have been subjected to rigorous Quality Assurance processes.  We know this because the source code of the computer models shows comments pointing that out.

- Ned

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:56 | 4894591 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Where I grew up (1979 was the year I graduated) the temperature did not go above 0F the entire month of Janaury 1979. This winter, while tough, was a piece of cake.

Back then it was about the new "ice age". Then came the ozone layer, now this.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 17:15 | 4895245 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

No grant money for old theories.Milk it, and move on.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:34 | 4894472 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Next year when the ACA/Obamacare bites harder as certain Executive Exemptions for favored Big Biz and Labor Unions roll off, and those who didn't sign up because they just didn't have the coin are fined/fucked out of 1% gross anyway; -things are gonna get better, right?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:08 | 4894334 nink
nink's picture

Worst Winter ever so all US stocks to the moon (ignore all the red in Europe and Asia) 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:08 | 4894337 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Yes they can and do

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:15 | 4894386 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Market is up today. What recession? The Fed learned in 2008 to never let the markets go down. As long as they are up, the rich are richer and the poor feel like it is all temporary and a good job is around the corner. Efficient markets........

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:24 | 4894438 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....and the poor are lead to believe it is their fault for not trying harder, working longer, getting a better education, etc....which, of couse, is quite often the case.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:36 | 4894768 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

If the poor were to learn a bit more about money, the would fight against central banks that make them poorer and weaker and would not accept economy based on corruption and political bullshit. Which of course, is almost never the case because banksters have bought also the popular knowledge and science, just to make sure disinformation rule the world.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:08 | 4894628 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

screw them-I spent the winter in Phoenix and the weather was perfect--yet house sales decliend and inventories stacked up--I guess the weather was too good to go househunting.

 

A friend of ours rented there this winter and saw the house they wanted to buy. They thought it was too much and the house sat and sat--finally they put in a bid in April well below already reduced  asking price and the bid was accepted.

 

Besides, for comparison purposes, did we not have winters in the past? I remember plenty of delays in flying into midwest and east in prior years. This years felt just like other years. I guess its a matter of when the storms hit. Its not everyday.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:10 | 4894976 ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

I remember a chap named David Lereah who made it a point to snicker publicly at anyone who thought there was a housing bubble in the 2005-2008 era.

 

When it finally collapsed he said that nobody could have seen it coming and went on at some length about the loose underwriting standards and the sheer scope of the thing which no one out there realized.  He actually enumerated everything the bloggers had been begging the media to cover as he discussed all the things no one saw.

 

The point is, the elites are having a bit of a laugh at us right now.  By replacing, "unusually cold" winter with "unforgettable" winter, they are showcasing their ability to, if required, invoke "ludicras spring" or "Sassifras Summer" to explain the next missed forcast.  All the while the media that they own, will print the current concensus as truth and the previous disaster as being priced in because thats what the elites pay them to print.

 

And you'll sit there and like it.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:26 | 4895053 doctor10
doctor10's picture

no wonder these idiots are so preoccupied with "climate change"; it distracts them from the consequences of their corrupt business practices!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:06 | 4894330 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

Why is it so hard to admit recession?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:13 | 4894375 ENTP
ENTP's picture

Because they blew trillions of dollars on an experiment trying to prove Keyensian economics could grow the economy and it did just the opposite.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:15 | 4894385 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Cuz a black guy is runnin things.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:25 | 4894443 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Right into the ground.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:01 | 4894612 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Bernanke, Yellin, and Lew are not black.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:51 | 4894843 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

Down vote this

W was a white guy and he started this mess

I know.....the pres today and congrezzzzz....finish it

I don't blame the people....there are no good choices

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:18 | 4894405 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And how will they call it than when it gets worse?
Recession XXX ?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:32 | 4894473 ENTP
ENTP's picture

Summer of Recover Part VI

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:08 | 4894959 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

Main-street....Let see....I'm taxed to death....Insurance on my car my house and everything else...food does cost more in the last 3 months...Oh shit...I wanna drive my car....now I have to buy gas....where did all my money go

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:12 | 4894994 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

Oh and If I don't pay the prop tax on my house(I own it)....you will take it away from me

 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:18 | 4894407 CH1
CH1's picture

Why is it so hard to admit recession?

Because it might break the wall of denial that stands from sea to shining sea.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:32 | 4894475 devo
devo's picture

Easy one: no bonuses.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:33 | 4894481 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Kneegrow President......

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:34 | 4894489 Shad_ow
Shad_ow's picture

Because that might open the door to a peek into the truth, depression.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:09 | 4894341 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

It's cold outside unless you're Al Gore and grant funded climate "scientists."

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:16 | 4894396 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Gubmits and 'conmists spewing global warming and harshest winter ever to explain poor econ data. Gotta love the double speak. 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:24 | 4894436 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Gotta love that one of the above is a clown and the other appears to be a clay-mation sheep...

Just wait until the climate gives us a real bitch slap...

BTW, note that the just about the only place below average in temps last winter was  central North America....

Global Temperature Anomaly Dec-2013-Feb-2014

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:34 | 4894484 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

While i personally think GW is real,  I've got to admit you're a real gluton for punishment on this topic on here.   (Keep up the good work!)

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:35 | 4894493 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hedgetards are so cute when they bloviate....

I can't help it...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:08 | 4894639 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Wow, TWO idiots on the same thread.

Global warming isn't global warming. It's "climate change" now, stick. Before it was the "ozone layer", then before that it was the new ice age. Back in 1930s, the warmest decade on record, it was just one hot SOB'in summer. 

Catching on yet?

 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:24 | 4894700 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It was Frank Luntz, a paid focus group guru, that convinced the W adminstration to sell it as climate change...

As for decadal averages, you really should get up to speed...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_temperature_change_-_decadal_av...(NOAA).png

Classic Hedgetard nonsense on your part...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:08 | 4894342 madbraz
madbraz's picture

polar bears will be around 10 years from now...Bank of America, not so sure

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:23 | 4894435 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is a reason why they moved 75 trillion worth of derivatives over to the banking side of the business and de facto the taxpayer via the FDIC.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:28 | 4894454 madbraz
madbraz's picture

Amen.  Perhaps also the reason why they are shitting on their pants with falling yields and engaging in non-stop bond-bear propaganda.  

 

Someone may be on the wrong side of a very large interest rate off-balance sheet, derivative bet.  If so, certainly the NY FED is aware.

 

My suspicion is that Dudley started these gigantic reverse repos to provide collateral amunition to his friends.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:26 | 4894715 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"Someone may be on the wrong side of a very large interest rate off-balance sheet, derivative bet.  If so, certainly the NY FED is aware."

 

That would be The FED.  -&, Yes; they are aware that THEY wrote those derivatives.

No, I am NOT kidding.  

 

"My suspicion is that Dudley started these gigantic reverse repos to provide collateral amunition to his friends."

 

Oh, yeah; the Commercial Banks have been writing and selling piles of them to each other.

-THAT is where The FED got the idea to do it: the Member Banks...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:08 | 4894343 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Bullshit!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:29 | 4894729 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Nice call.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:11 | 4894350 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Yet another carbon related global warming ...   er cooling catastrophe!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:19 | 4895026 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

Global Warming is true...It is just not happening fast enuff for you

 

 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:24 | 4895044 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

So it's not true....lets keep fuck-n shit up

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:38 | 4895100 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

I mean...wall(big wall)street and gov and .....Lets not get the Po-Po...Involved

I gotta go sheer the sheeple

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:16 | 4894353 khakuda
khakuda's picture

The real economy has been punk for years, though QE and ZIRP have allowed corporate profits, stock, bond and home prices to march merrily higher.

Today's action sums it up with negative growth in the real world greeted by another bond and stock rally.  This show has been playing for years and is driven by our friends at the Fed.  When the SHTF this time around, the Fed's encore is really going to scare all of us.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:12 | 4894360 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

It's different this time! 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:12 | 4894363 ENTP
ENTP's picture

People need to seriously ask themselves how stable the economy is if some cold weather can completely crash growth.  Seems very fragile, people are being very naive for believing there is no risk in this market, very naive.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:16 | 4894392 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Speaking of naive, people should recognize that infinite growth of any one species in a closed system with finite resources is impossible.

 

BTW, what people "believe" is completely irrelevant as that which cannot be sustained, won't be.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:39 | 4894517 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Well,  that's kind-of-a long term look at things tho.   The yeast feasting on sugar aren't worried about the sugar running out.  They are buying stocks.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:04 | 4894626 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There are always a few yeast that understand how exponential equations work and sporulate before the big die off.

same as it ever was.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:19 | 4894683 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Fucking yeast.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:18 | 4894679 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

This story rings true AFAIC. I personally couldn't leave my house for 2 weeks in January due to the cold and snow and sadly as a result I died of thirst, exposure and cheesy poof-withdrawal.

So this is why I've not been pukping the economy with credit card spending. I'm deceased. Sorry!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:21 | 4894695 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Seriously...this 'blame winter' shit is over the top. They are running out of excuses...I suppose if 2nd quarter GDP disappoints, we will be told that the markets are going down because their feelings are hurt.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:19 | 4894370 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well yes, the winter and the cost of bailing out these useless paper-pushing fucks. 

The capital mis-allocation and mal-investment continues...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:12 | 4894371 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Delayed purchases than?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:12 | 4894373 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

For fucks sakes! The winter wasn't THAT bad!! It's not like the world was buried under 50 feet of snow or anything, we had a few cold snaps and a few degrees colder than normal, THAT'S ALL fuckin bankster retards snap out of your delusion! Everyones broke, and not even thinking of taking out loans from you so YOU'RE FUCKED, end of story!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:21 | 4894424 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Dude, in some places the snow was at least a pinky deep!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:25 | 4894701 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Well Sheepdog it sounds like you were one of the fortunates to survive the most Hellacious Winter in recorded history with it's endless series of polar vortexes falling upon our stalwart redoubt like a hail of artillery.

Good for you! As for myself, my family, my pets and outbuildings - we all died in the polar vortexes.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:16 | 4894383 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

These people crack me up. I guess they've never been to a store before a storm and watched as the shoppers stripped the shelves bare to stockpile pulling demand forward, or that they have never heard of this thingy called the internet which hosts retailers like Amazon.... idiots. Snow in the winter.....shocking!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:16 | 4894384 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Seems like the TBTF bankster received their talking points today.

 

GS - Worst quarterly q/q number outside a recession since 1947 - but GS says not to read too much in to it

 

BOA -We caution against reading too much into the weakness

 

It's a good thing kids in public high schools 'read' at a 4th grade level, huh?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:23 | 4894434 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Don't read too much into the horrible economic data, in fact, WTF are all you damn peasants doing reading anyway? Stop reading and get back on those oars and ROW HARDER, dammit!

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:15 | 4894389 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yeah, sure, whatever.

Q2 better blow the doors off before the "deadly heat" of Q3 Summer stops all activity.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:25 | 4894415 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They have a ready made excuse....Iraq.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:29 | 4894727 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

No!

The deadly Equatorial Vortexes of Summer, bringing unbelievable heat right up into Amurika's grill will suppress consumer spending!

I fear the heat of summer may kill me and mine should we reanimate by August.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:15 | 4894393 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

On top of that, the winter wasn't even THAT bad.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:31 | 4894463 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

True.  People's perceptions are totally warped because of the "news" media sensationalism and exaggeration.

No one listens to the old timers who could tell them about the past and bad winters.

If Brian Williams on NBC Nightly News says "worst Winter ever" it becomes gospel truth.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:21 | 4894409 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

The problem is obvious to me and should be to you too.   Someone forgot to add back the "bad winter" seasonal adjustment to compensate for a poor GDP blamed on a bad winter.   Whomever it is should lose their job over this because they once again caused the fed show their hand when they stepped into the market this morning to stop the the muppets from hurting themselves.    

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:19 | 4894414 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Underlying "logic" - warmer temps makes people buy moar stuf.

Bueller?  Bueller?  Anyone?  Anyone?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:21 | 4894422 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Time to start a war on polar bears.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 18:22 | 4895463 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Been there done that, so it would seem...

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/greenland-melt.png

Notice that the Y-axis is in GigaTonnes...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:21 | 4894425 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

We may soon be forced to face our economic Armageddon. The forces that have driven stock markets ever-higher and upward may be beginning to wane. Many markets became distorted years ago when QE and super low interest rates hit the economy in an effort to lessen many of the missteps of recent years.

This has been more helpful in holding up the underlying value of assets and derivatives it now appears than helping to repair a wounded economy. QE has up to now stopped an implosion of derivatives including the resulting contagion and shock that would have spread throughout the financial system. Unfortunately the economy has not fared as well as these asset prices and in many ways these policies have harmed Main Street. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/facing-our-economic-armageddon.ht...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:22 | 4894426 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

I dont see any winter conditions on the horizon for at least the next 5 months

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:30 | 4894465 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Winter is coming bitchez.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:21 | 4894690 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

That's the problem.  We never see it coming.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:24 | 4894437 madbraz
madbraz's picture

According to science, not spin, average temperatures during winter were 1F below historical averages and only the 34th coldest winter in the last 100+ years.

 

"unforgetable spin" is more like it

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:24 | 4894439 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Point of reference: the 4Q 1969 print of -1.73% was the front end of one of the most brutal winters ever (look it up).  Fast-forward a year, the economy never "bounced back" and the 4Q 1970 printed at -4.12%.  Jus sayin'...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:24 | 4894440 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

please point out the commonality in the chart of Silver over the last 3 days...

hint: the NY close....

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:33 | 4894445 kristian01
kristian01's picture

uh...were there no quarterly figures during the Great Depression?  I'm all for ZH's outrageous, all-caps, hair-on-fire headlines, but you can't cite the "history" of US GDP and exclude figures from 1929-1933. please. 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:35 | 4894490 madbraz
madbraz's picture

GDP fell by 6% in the first quarter of 1930.

 

Must have been so cold that stockbrokers jumped from their buildings with their coats on.

 

 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:39 | 4894516 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Based on recent modifications, and current methodoligies, of how recessions are calculated, retroactive adjustments to said GDP figures eliminate the entire Great Depression.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:27 | 4894449 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The GDP numbers released today are more proof the economic recovery that the media and talking heads have been bantering around does not exist and is just a myth. A manipulated stock market distorted by recent economic policy hides and mask the real truth, in many ways it is ground zero in the war to convince us all is well.

The American people and Main Street will tell you they are far from convinced that it is smooth sailing ahead. Huge weakness in the economy has been shown by numbers that barely get by even after record amounts of stimulus. Fact is if QE or the massive government deficit spending that props up our economy is removed it will fold like a cheap umbrella.

Recent changes in how the GDP is figured , which boosted growth thus reducing the debt to growth ratio, and attempts to spin poor numbers regarding employment have been met with skepticism. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/10/myth-of-economic-recovery.html

 

 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:30 | 4894462 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

I think it just proves we haven't had enough "Keynesian" stimulus to achieve "Keynesian" escape velocity.  

Let us pray, the "Keynesian" prayer of perpetual warmth:

We must borrow more money,
To stimulate demand,
So that jobs are created,
And prosperity (and summer) ensues,
Then we pay off our loans (unless it's still snowing).

In his holy bearded name, AMEN.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:41 | 4894785 benbushiii
benbushiii's picture

Imagine how bad the GDP numbers would be if "real" inflation numbers were used.  Shows how bad the manipulation really is.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:27 | 4894451 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Love that "recession yes/no" chart, but (uh) shouldn't that column have been identifing "winter yes/no"?  

And 1958 -10%, holy cow.   Can anybody imagine how high the dow would go on -10% gdp?

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