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"An Unforgettable Winter" - Bank Of America's "Explanation" For The 17th Worst GDP Print In US History

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so the polar bears penguins come out of hibernation, "explaining" today's disastrous GDP print. Randomly selected for your reading pleasure, here is Bank of Frigid America's Ethan Harris spiking the Kool Aid with an above Surgeon General recommended dose of hopium.

An unforgettable winter

 

We caution against reading too much into the weakness, as it is clear that special factors during the quarter distorted growth. The severe winter weather weighed heavily on consumption, fixed investment and trade. Furthermore, there was a notable inventory drawdown that amounted to a 1.7pp drag on growth, following two strong quarters of inventory build in 3Q and 4Q of 2013. Despite the deeper contraction in this final release, we are not revising 2Q GDP growth. We continue to expect a 4.0% rebound in the second quarter, and the recent data suggest that we are headed in that direction. However, uncertainty around this number remains elevated: there could continue to be special factors at play stemming from the weakness in 1Q. Moreover, benchmark GDP revisions, released with the first estimate of 2Q GDP in July, could alter the trajectory.

 

Assuming 4.0% growth in 2Q and solid 3.0% growth in 2H, growth will still only average 1.7% this year. It certainly was not the start of the year we were hoping for.

Putting today's GDP print in context, here is J. Lyons Fund Management which shows that the final Q1 GDP print was the 17th worst in US history.

 

Or, said another way, it was their fault.

 

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Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:31 | 4894466 toros
toros's picture

Give me control of your weather, and I care not who controls it's laws.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:31 | 4894469 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Recession?  WTF is a recession???

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:33 | 4894479 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

MarketWatch (aka the Wall Street Journal) joined the parade with this headline: "GDP data provide new view into a brutal winter's costs."  lol

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:34 | 4894482 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

If it weren't for global warming, we'd be in a severe depression

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:36 | 4894499 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Pretty ominous looking chart they had there.

Remember the last recession or depression, depending on how you look at it. We hit stock market highs about 8 months into it.

As we found out later when the "officials" determined the start of the recession.....

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 14:43 | 4894539 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

ObamaCare, bureticaucratic driven Regulations and FEAR of Obama leadership have driven investment negative. 2nd quarter growth will NOT be the rebound predicted by financial gurus who want to invest your money.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:06 | 4894635 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

We are not in a depression, because Barry can plug Q2 with some of his government made healthcare wretch.

 

And since GS got online in time to pump sunshine into the MSM knowing full well the markets were going up today, everything is fine once again in the land of Oz.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:12 | 4894661 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Hey, I live in the northeast. We had winter, with snow and cold. It happens roughly every year, at about the same time, usually shortly after the leaves turn brown and fall off the trees. I am in my mid 50's, and it has happened every year I've been here. You might say it's like clockwork. You might even say it is an established pattern.
But apparently, this past winter caught everyone by surprise. And no one was able to conduct any business at all. Even online, because I guess folks keep their computers in the backyard, and there was too much snow to get to them. This morning, some guy claimed that medical spending was down because of...winter. Because medical procedures are usually performed outdoors?

Whatever dude. BTW, that winter thing? It's gonna happen again in about 4 1/2 months...just a head's up.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:15 | 4894671 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

That explains it, every year you say? about the same time? somebody should be told about this.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:18 | 4894678 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

I say we shoot all polar bears.  That'll show 'em.  Fucking with our economy.

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:48 | 4894707 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

At least we know this problem won't repeat next winter

We can use burning dollar bills to thaw any ice and still have plenty to use for blankets and toilet paper

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:33 | 4894755 viator
viator's picture

Hey. I thought it was getting warmer?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 15:56 | 4894878 RazvanM
RazvanM's picture

Is there any historical evidence with the corelation between coldness of winters (I'm in tears of laughing) and the economic performance?

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:03 | 4894919 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

what happened to that global warming that was supposed to prevent this ?????

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 17:01 | 4895189 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Because 2% of the world having a cold snap makes a lick of difference...

See the above plot I posted..

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:05 | 4894935 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

don't you just hate it when you're trying to sell global warming b.s. every way you can in order to institute a global carbon tax that will add trillions to your slush fund and then you have to blame the crash in gdp from an insanely centrally planned economy on the coldest winter in decades. That just sucks. Next we'll have the gdp crash equated to resistant saving by the mass of citizens which will be remedies by taxation incentives to keep the saving to a minimum, ummm something like nirp. Or as the other 99.9% see it, the beatings will continue until morale improves. 

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 16:48 | 4895151 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You read like a bitter old coot who is shouting at the world...

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 17:28 | 4895307 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

In Nevada (and I understand CA too if one believes the housing numbers) the weather was normal. Just how bad was the Winter in the NE? Seriously, I read here on ZH that it is just an excuse but was it really that bad. Did folks here change spending due to cold?

I grew up in snow country and I don't recall mom or dad ever saying "too cold to eat this week, we'll wait for the weather to warm."

Wed, 06/25/2014 - 17:57 | 4895405 Irving Phelps
Irving Phelps's picture

Fuck B of A or they will surely fuck us!

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