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This Has Never Happened Without The US Falling Into Recession
With all eyes firmly focused on yesterday's disastrous GDP report (and ultimately dismissing it as 'weather' and one-off exogenous factors), we thought Bloomberg Brief's Rich Yamarone's analysis of a lesser-known (yet just as key) indicator of the state of US economic health was intriguing. As he notes, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic analysis, there has never been a time in history that year-over-year gross domestic income has been at its current pace (2.6 percent) without the U.S. economy ultimately falling into recession. That’s more than 50 years of history, which is about as good as one could ever hope for in an economic indicator.
Source: Bloomberg Briefs
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When did we fall out of recession?
Exactly my point!
The guy from ECRI was right; the problem is the way the economists and hedge fund analysts measure inflation is flawed, partially by (propgandist) design, but part of it because the market is so rigged, so distorted on so many levels........how the fuck can anymore measure ANYTHING anymore...besides "the smell test" (i.e. stepping outside and fo going "the charts").
Our economy is increasingly becoming like Japan's and China's.......and the "noisy" economic numbers is one of those trends. That why those places never saw 1997 coming, and why we won't see 2015/2022 coming (I predict the next two *big* crashes come at the end of Presidential terms, and there is history for this since 1970 since we got off the gold standard).
XKCD nails the derp in this post:
http://xkcd.com/1122/
Gotta be careful how you reason from historical precedent.
Just imagine how bad the number really was before they MASSAGED it
Chicago Public Schools Announces 1,150 Layoffs, Including 550 Teachers
http://news.yahoo.com/video/chicago-public-schools-announces-1-223016714...
Tyler is sort of sweet how he/she still clings to historical indicators and fundamentals. Recession, pffffttt. Just print some money.
Impossible
Hundreds upon thousands of newly minted Spanish tongued consumers flowing over the borders minute by minute, bringing vast wealth and unlimited purchasing power, filling the swollen ranks of the empty open jobs, bringing untold riches and productivity to a moribund domestic economy.
Oh, the Joy!
God's Work in Action!
Oh Jesus God we are so fucked.
The whole system is coming unglued.
Lawlessness, debauchery and murder abound on a global scale.
Forward to the Great Socialist Dream in the Skies!
All for Plenty and Plenty for All
Unlimited Redistribution of Unlimited Wealth
You know what has never happened while the US fell into a recession before?
1) The government already on full economy support with nearly 10% of GDP annual deficits
2) The FED on full money from the sky printing mode with printing the 2000 monetary base each and every year
The government is already on full support mode, what happens when the US enters a recession now that there is no additional support able to be provided? This is going to end in tears.
Untaper The Taper
Negative Interest Rates
Bail -Ins
War
Amen
What about the kids? Print some money and hire them back, or take the 500,000,000 Obama is going to give to Al-Qaeda in Syria. Either way, there is plenty of green paper to hire them back.
Now all those poor asylum seeking children should be sent to Chicago so they can hire the teachers back. Problem solved.
Any day now they are going to have to get some of their accountants into Walmart to help in preparing the financials.
The accountants will likely be armed and say "These are your sales... now make it work.".
When Gingrich stuck it up Clintons ass. We have been fucked since shithead was elected in 08. No problem
"Q2 will be much better GDP growth."
"Q1 miss was due to bad weather." Nothing to see here, move along people.
"It's different this time."
you can say that again.
you can say that again.
I'm going to get the papers, get the papers
"that again"
Was that before or after Newt got censured for ethics violations?
Heck, I saw Newt just a few minutes ago when I channel serfed right past him on CNN. Apparently his fat ass sits on some CNN politics show and he says how he should run America as he is so fucking good. He looks like a heart attack wating to happen.
He got bettah.
Since your comment makes little sense, I think you have had way to many beers.
Well, we actually never had a recession. We had, and are currently in, a depression. A recession would be an improvement.
The Public is now in the position of paying record high prices for stocks in a dying economy; whose price was bid up by execs. in the Corps. who borrowed the money from their money market funds to buy the stocks and drive the price up; thereby putting lipstick on the pig and making it look good enough to buy. How cute. when it sinks in to the mass mind that this isn't any economic recovery, the crash will be heard around the world.
The US also 'ultimately' falls into a recession after it rains on Thursdays.
We have been a recession since 2007
Personally I think this country's been 'in recession' since 1913...but what do I know?
Correctomondo....we are now in early stage Depression.
Moderate disthymia complicated by hypochondria and narcissism.
Yellen shrinkage is occurring across the land. Every time she pops out. I feel the recession now.
we are now in early stage Depression
deflation, inflation, real deflation, real inflation/hyperinflaton - Mike Maloney
we have entered the real deflation phase. expect the FED to turn off taper sometime in the near future and Belgium debt buying to accelerate.
Well, not for the top 20% or so. When the serious trickle down finally starts - which is any day now - the lesser people will see some benefits too.
Ah hem, the trickle up poverty is what's killing everyone's lifestyle right now, wouldn't you say?
The top 20% will always be ok, it's the 60% in the middle that is paying the freight for all this green shoots we're trying to mow right now.
DaddyO
Yellen and Fed have their own 'trick'le down streams. Maybe it should be called Yellen Stream or GazProm with Yellen.
I'm not so sure about that DaddyO, I am technically in the 20% and though I still have a job ( for now at least) and I can pay the bills and put food on the table, we have no money for much else. We lived a far more comfortable lifestyle 20 years ago when we made far less money. Now we stress over every expense.
The funny thing was we thought when our kids were grown we could have some time and money to enjoy on ourselves. Now I wished we had done more when we had the chance instead of dumping all our extra cash into that rat hole called a 401k.
Miffed;-)
Miffed, I understand your plight. I was in the top 2% of income earners for many years with a 7 figure income. Then 2008 happened and I've been recovering ever since.
Over the last three years, I have retired about 800k in debt and still have about 500k left. But 2008 nearly broke me. I have chosen a different retirement path than the 401K and never had one or Roths.
I have invested in local real estate and writing mortgages (Hard Money Lender). I have most of my commercial real estate for sale and will most likely pay off the remaining debt when it sells.
My advice to anyone who will listen at this point is to get debt free and invest in their local markets.
If you don't know how to write private mortgages, I would suggest finding a local mortgage broker with a good reputation and talk to them if you're interested.
My great grand father weathered the last great depression with real estate and farms producing vegatables and livestock. I am trying a similar path.
DaddyO
Thanks DaddyO. My husband and I currently gross around 230K. I am grateful for all I have and I don't like complaining when I realize so many have it so much worse than I. However, if you had told me 30 years ago I would be making this money I would have passed out in shock thinking I would be rich.
My husband and I knew we didn't have the cutthroat drive it takes to have a successful business. We watched our fathers kill themselves doing so. We made the erroneous decision to be professionals and be content with a basic living. Well, we now realize we were wrong and were duped by the state of things. Thank goodness we did not take on serious debt though we still owe 170k on our mortgage which should be gone in 9 years. We are currently focusing on collecting PMs and other assets and praying this taco stand doesn't blow before we are ready.
My husbands parents rode through the depression relatively well as small country farmers whereas their city brethren had it much more difficult.
Miffed;-)
Downhill since 2007, and considering the labor participation rate and food stamp participation this is an ongoing Depression.
"Will we enter recession again?" really means "When will we ever get out of this Depression!?!?"
Is it really a depression if you don't feel depressed?
Legal pot and Cheetos.
Whats to be depressed about?
They are already rounding up the psychologists to explain that what we are experiencing is not a depression. It is simply a choice of how we look at things. (is there really a spoon?). Just an article yesterday about how researchers have determined that free will doesn't really exist, it is a delusion. Actually all of our choices are predetermined and we have no real free will to do otherwise.
So lets settle in and enjoy our Cheetos and not concern ourselves with concepts like depression or contraction or employment. Everything happens as it should and as predetermined. Obama will show us the way. War is peace, poverty is wealth and a drug induced stupor is clarity for all time.
Didn't Bloomber make Cheetos illegal?
It's a recession when your neighbor loses his sedan.
It's a depression when you lose your's.
DaddyO
Yes, yes, YES ! An apartment is just a small house. Four hours minimum wage a day is a JOB ! /sarc
McDonalds will start floating a 'mini Mac' burger very soon.
Come now, ZH!
Do you really think the media are going to let the word 'recession' enter our vocabulary any time during this presidency?
RE
As much as the guy is a representative for Wall St, the President (whoever it is) is not in the end who the media is trying to protect. They'll throw anyone under the bus. But not Wall St.
And why?
Because they are the ones who sign the fucking checks.
I can guarantee they will come up for another word for it. They love renaming reality. Maybe a "savings cycle" or a "letdown" or a "soft economy" Be on the lookout!
Surely a "contraception".
Hope and chains
Think I'll call it temporary dislocation of head and the body.
Calm down, economic indicators have no meaning in central planning.
That’s more than 50 years of history prior to perpertual ZIRP, which is about as good as one could ever hope for in an economic indicator in a world that no longer exists.
Yes, 5 years of bouncing along the bottom with just the announcment of a "Recovery Summer" I, II, III, and IV. Well after several we really needed an IV with all the excitement. I didn't feel a top but the markets seem like they are at the top of the big hill on the roller coaster, soon to be a lot of screaming as we free fall.
Mission Accomplished.
"Retweeted by zerohedge
Joseph A. LaVorgna @Lavorgnanomics 5hThe unemployment rate is always rising before the onset of recession. This is one reason why we believe -2.9% Q1 #GDP was aberrant."
Ha ha, ha... ha, ha, ha
And just think over the next year what oh, ten million new, unskilled, Socialist-minded, don't pay taxes, don't obey laws, sucking off the teat illegals will add to this recovery!
No way that may white-trash are going to buy Harleys and get tatoos.
Let's stop talking about recovery and start talking about how to manage contraction.
maybe the powers that be will get the message? nuuuuuuuuuuu, just gessin....
If a tree falls in the forest and Obama said it didn't, did it really happen?
We will be in recession when they say we are in recession, and they will have a damned good reason why its not their fault. Bank on it!
Imagine where the Fed's balance sheet and the National Debt will be 12 months from now.
estao fodidos.
Haha. Translation: we're fucked. It's also the name of my band
We need to hear such less reported stats. All mainsteam govt. stats are products of geometric logic
/captain queeg
+1 for the bogart quote. where are those keys to the galley icebox?
LOL!
UNTILL DEBT DO US A PART!
Are we not already in a recession?
OBAMACESSION.
All those vacant houses to get populated by the newly arrived. And they won't pay any property tax, and can have chickens and cows in their yards. No issues with raw milk or fresh eggs. Fiesta !!
Margin debt for may has not been announced. Does anyone know why? Normally it is published the third week of the month.
curbsidejimmy.com /new_music_for_the_hard_times_coming.htm
Next they'll blame the World Cup! :)
I am obviously a fan of ZH but am starting to wonder if this site has crossed to being an exclusive purveyor of gloom and doom? Now before y'all go and set yourselves on fire, or worse, there are obviously many concerns faced by our global citizenry.
But ZH, could you humor me and give one 'good' news story? And preferably not one about another banker offing him or herself. ;-)
OK, try this on for size
Nazi Pelousy herveryownlittle stinking rich self is gonna go to the border and straighten this shit out.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/nancy-pelosi-border-detained-minor...
More for Everybody and Everybody for More
Careful Winston, room 101 is just down the hallway, to your left
See there is love in the world. Okay, I get your point; we are phucked!
Hip Hip Hooray!
How about a trade? We let the illegals stay, they keep Nancy.
But they will ravage her? or at least their dogs will.
We get that fairyland propaganda crap on Fox and CNBC, Unless you're one of the rich predator class, or the well to do servant class that serves them -there's not much good to report -unless your local sports team is doing well.
I thought we were seeking the truth!
It would have been more useful if the rate had been inflation adjusted. The rate for '78 is 15% or so. With inflation running at 16%, or whatever it was at that moment, the 15% is a lot lower.
One needs to make one's own CPI using items that are relevant to one's own life. My own purchasing power index contains things like Charmin toilet paper, Ivory soap, Hershey's plain milk chocolate to name a few.
I like toilet paper. Think about it. It's "utility" remains the same as it ever has. Demand grows with the population. There is plenty of competition.
It's a lot of fun to "price" these basic items in terms of hours of labor required to buy them over the last 30 years. An hour of my labor in 1980 bought about 48 rolls of Charmin. In 2004, my much increased nominal salary, one hour of my labor bought just 60 rolls.
Price your own labor in different ways other than nominal US$'s and you'll see how much actual progress you have made(or not made) over the years.
Is it just me or has the last few weeks in the market taken on an entirely new demeanor. Even during the inexoprable run up to the current highs there were still periods of very modest pull back, even the Nikkei got close to 14,000. The last few weeks though has been bizarre in that the S&P is locked near 1950 and the Nikkei is locked near 15,300. Is the whole thing just seizing up, all retail buyers just vanished, no more buy backs, an equilibrium between company buybacks and everyone else bailing from the market? What the hell.
Who cares? Government statistics are unreliable. The situation could be far worse or far better than the numbers indicate. Nothing that the government produces can be trusted.
If anything were "far better"they wouldn't have to lie.
could you overlay wall street profits per employee over this?
Yeah, but, this time it's different. We will have a million more children that need food and shelter who just arrived.
Who has enough Credit that can push the market down, Yet BUY ?
With all it controls, AUDIT the FED. THEN END THE "FED"
Ahhh yes, but this time is different because you see the Fed is buying.....
Bullish I tell you!
I gave you a up vote because you are THE WORST TRADER. This would mean we can follow your lead.
It might soon become apparent the economic efficiency of credit is beginning to collapse and the additional money poured into the system coupled with lower rates can no longer drive the economy forward. At some point the return on loaning money is simply not worth the risk!
Why do you want to loan money if most likely you will never be repaid or repaid with something that is totally worthless? The collapse of credit can pose major problems such as what we saw when many sellers were forced to demand payment up front before shipping goods in 2008.
When this happens the only safe place to store wealth will be in "tangible assets" and the only lenders will be those who print the money that nobody wants. More on this subject below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-economic-efficiency-of-credit...