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Stocks End Unchanged As World Cup Loss Trumps Bullard Hawkishness & Dismal Data
The typically more dovish Jim Bullard unleashed a torrent of "markets are wrong" this morning and along with dismal macro data sent stock reeling out of the gate - catching down to Treasury yields divergence since the Fed last week. Stocks stabilized as the hevay volume dump dried up and staggered sideways after POMO and Europe's close. Then USA went 1-0 down against Germany and VIX was dumped and stocks pumped and then double-pumped again to almost back to unchanged in the last hour. During all this excitment, bond yields slid lower (to 3-week lows); gold and silver pushed higher (though gold ended modestly lower on the day after China gold loans news); and credit entirely ignored the exuberant bounce...VIX closed unch along with stocks as indices were rescued from a notable red day via an epic AUDJPY lift and VIX slam on negligible volume.
Early on we wondered...
Do you see what happens larry when the HFT algos go on strike
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 26, 2014
But then this happened - totally normal and human...
VIX was in charge...
Fun-durr-mentals... as luckily stocks had AUDJPY to save the day...
And in S&P Futures all the volume is on the down moves...(lower pane)
Treasuries remain notably divergent since the Fed...
And today was insane... (exactly the same deja vu all over again as yesterday- and that recoupled this morning)
Credit markets did not buy the dip as exuberantly as stocks...
Silver gained but gold dropped modestly...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: 1987 Deja vu - Melt-up before the crash?
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What's a, "World Cup"??
Sounds unsanitary.
just another Colosseum presentation to divert the masses...that is all.
So GDP takes one in the stink and stawks are unchanged?
pods
Does this mean we will need to wait until October until we see any selling? That's about 60 to 70 market days from today. Oh well, might as well go all-in on the long side between now and then.
Oh - and when the sell-off finally materializes, will it all happen in one day again?
sorta like the Piston Cup...
He did WHAT in his cup!?
What did he mean by "wrong?" Not high enough?
Only pussies play soccer. That's why they call them soccer moms, because they raise little pussies.
I have a good friend named Gary. I take him to the bar and let him try to score for 90 minutes- that is patience enough.
shorts got ^%$*@ today and yesterday
the Data Means NOTHING! it's a Recovery!!! http://gallup.com < just LOOK!
For those who listened to Ben and bought at the bottom it sure is a recovery.
Is it possible no one is left in this market except for Yellen and algos?
Maybe it's worse than we even imagine?
Well, and the top 10% pouring their loot into 401k's.
problem with 1987 was the crash lasted for a week or two and then the markets took off again
debt was manageable and technology was expanding
now we are saturated with gadgets and excessive inventory (off to open a bank account I don't need to get a free Samsung galaxy), hidden stockpiles of commodities to keep prices up, and massive debt everywhere you look at all levels of government
and in 1987 Yellen was probably too young to have hair on his penis
The righteous sword of Libertarian frugality won't punish the non-frugal until the fiat collaspes. The Fiat won't collaspe until Tony stops fixing it.
I could ROCK that sword. Sounds like Excalibur and Stormbringer wrapped in one?
Okay, I played AD&D.
pods
There's no such thing as a "free" cell phone. If I were you, I'd at least hold out for a Spiderman towel.
market does not exist....only a screen of lights...
It's not USA losing 1-0 to Germany, it's USA advancing to the knockout rounds that counts. Why do you always have to be so negative?
Maybe President Five Iron can issue an executive order reversing the score of the game. Drone the Germans!
BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!
amazing how a fucking market goes from down triple digit dow points and double digit nasdaq and s&p losses to flat.
never in our lifetimes have ''investors'' bought every fucking dip possible.
quite amazing how long this farce can continue
Who would sell when the Fed's got their back?
I've been watching this shit for so long, that it's like waking up every fucking day and hearing Cher sing, "I got you, babe."
Two more trading days to prop this 2Q bitch up. I am confident the machines can do it. Amen .
<-------stop with the fuckin' 1987 chart
<-------continue with the 1987 chart
It provides the anti-hopium needed to continue another day. I voted yes.
+1 let me guess 999.9 .....i'm thinking you're in the "stop with the fuckin' 1987 chart" camp. i dunno...maybe i'm wrong. he he.
Smart guy :-)
We had a good chuckle around the office here. Entirely in agreement. Must be the 100th time we've seen it.
Yes, the first time that we were close to the top it was 300 points ago.
The NEW top is at 2100.
Lets see it in 6 months, till then onward!
I dont think boots in iraq, euro nirp money, etc, will trump the fed melting the us markets up
To play devil's advocate: Who gives a shit what Bullard says? He's a hawk, everyone knows it and he has absolutely 0 sway over what the Fed does. If someone from the dove wing had said it than it might matter. And the data today was far from "dismal". You can say it's rigged, goal-seeked or whatever and I'll agree with you, but the published data is showing that the 1Q was a one-time, nearly unprecedented dip that now looks like an anomoly. You could even make the case that it makes the earnings from Q1 look even better in retrospect.
It's pretty simple...as long as the world's central banks want the markets to go up they will go up, period. They can absorb any seller of any size. The only thing that could get out of their control is inflation and as long as they control the inflation data that seems unlikely. It will take rioting in the streets before that lid pops off.
So where do central banks want stocks at then? Is the record high not enough? I think you give them too much credit. This isn't driven only by central banks. This is a mindset amongst any professional money manager that they MUST be long and keep buying to keep their job. Suffice to say, when (not if) the market has a meaningful correction these guys will be destroyed, but they will look around and say "well, all my peers got hit too". Such is the stupidity of the system as it stands.
"Is a record high not enough?" - You tell me as we seemingly make one almost every day. So evidently not. Central Banks have become extremely political. They want whatever level it takes to keep the current power base in power. Central bankers wanted Abe in power in Japan, do you think they are going to let the Nikkei slip to 12,000 and watch him get kicked out on his ass? The JCB is actively buying equities, the Fed is providing repos to Europe so the ECB can buy sovereigns, the Fed is buying debt, worthless mortgage paper and secretely buying equities. Fund managers are only doing what's rational. Why would you bet against a trader that can print money? As I said, inflation that causes riots is the only thing that can stop the above