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Panic-Buying Melt-Up Rescues Stocks From Red Close
Before 330ET, the Nasdaq was the lone survivor in the green this week despite every effort to spark short squeezes and ramps day after day - but that all changed as the ubiquitous late-Friday buying panic occurred of course - lifting stock green for the day (and desperately searching for green on the week). There was a sudden heavy volume dump at 1315ET with no news catalyst amking many wonder if a dark pool puked its orders? A glance at the week's market moves would suggest 'volatility' is anything but low - yet we always manage to close day-to-day calmly. Wondering what provides the ammo for Nasdaq's rise? "Most shorted" stocks are up for the 7th week in a row. Despite all that idiocy, bond yields tumbled the most in 6 weeks and USDJPY fell the most in 14 weeks. Oil slipped on the week but copper, gold, and silver all gained. With the Rusell rebalance, volume was extreme today (but only at the close and that 1315ET dump).
Despite the idiocy on Friday afternoons - yet another epic buying panic in the last 30 minutes... Is this what humans do?
h/t arbitrage41
It was a busy week... Shittiest GDP print in 5 years, dismal consumption data, and European confidence and PMIs plunge (and Japanese macro data just collapsed)
- JPY's biggest gain in 14 weeks
- 10Y Yield's biggest drop in 6 weeks
- USD Index worst week in 14 weeks
- European stock's worst week in 14 weeks
"Most Shorted" stocks continue to surge back to what looks like a great double top forming (7th week in a row)...
On the day we saw three selling dumps (two of which were very odd)...
The sudden heavy volume dump at 1315 was odd - and no news catalyst appeared... one wonders if a dark pool puked its orders?
One glance at the week's action and it's clear something is not right...
But June has been a banner month for squeeze-driven rallies in high beta momo...
Stocks continue to ignore JPY carry and Bonds... for now...
Oil slipped on the week but copper, gold and silver rose...
And Bonds had their best week in 6 weeks...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Unless the index falls 5% on Monday, the S&P 500 will close higher for six consecutive quarters - that is the first time since 1998.
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I love the smell of panic buying in the morning.
Ok... seriously.... I'm really thinking about trading ONLY the last 60 minutes of the week. Buy next week calls at 3pm Friday, sell at 3:59pm Friday. ..... I'll be a zillionaire in about two months.
Here are a few more fun statistics to use at the bar tonight.
The SP500 has gone 682 market days without a 10% correction (back to May 2012)
The SP500 has gone 517 market days without an 8% correction (back to Oct 2011)
57% of the time the SP500 closes higher than the open.
58% of the time the SP500 closes higher than the day before.
62% of the time the SP500 closes higher than the close 2 days prior.
62% of the time the SP500 closes higher than the close 3 days prior.
Correction coming, big correction, when?
:-o
Hey "So What", by the way, where did you get those stats? That's impressive. Can you pull the stats for only trading the last 60 minutes on Fridays?
I wrote code to measure this stuff.
Regarding the "last 60 minutes" request... Yes, but I need to get some other things done first.
First thing Saturday morning, Im going shopin for a pitchfork. I have a feeling they might be in short supply when the time comes.
a 2 x 4 with some nails works well
In the end, all you really need is a sharp stick to "get stabby."
I noticed a typo in my stats above.
Here is the corrections
The SP500 has gone 682 market days without a 10% correction (back to OCT 2011)
The SP500 has gone 517 market days without an 8% correction (back to JUN 2012)
... And actually as of the close its now 683 & 518 days
Putting on stradles on a few for a blow off top or crash in the next few weeks
Monday's end of month and end of (calendar) half year. Smallish POMO ($0.85bn to $1.1bn). Maybe see some mover after that?
DavidC
meanwhile John Kerry claims that Syrian militants need to help the U.S. in Iraq dealing with ISIS:
http://www.presstv.com/detail/2014/06/27/368909/kerry-syrian-militants-c...
all hell about to break loose.
Just more "Keynesian" broken-glass consumption. The US will be (what is it called) the "safe haven" for the world again.
Better buy now, before you're priced out forever!
There needs to be a YouTube hitler vid on that. Kerry in the bunker
There needs to be a YouTube hitler vid on that. Kerry in the bunker
This market is: "Sofa King Gay".
Day R Sofa King We Todd Did
Anyone at the bar mentions stawks I'm punching them right in the throat.
How about doing a Luis Suárez move?
Argentine Bond default should push stocks way higher in comming weeks.
I wonder if the people steering this market think of themselves as pilots?
"Ahh, another perfect landing, it's Miller Time."
pods
Yeah, and Miller is a shitty beer.... shitty beer for shitty stearage comittee.
Holy cow, that was close. Was in the bathroom for a bit, sorry about that.
To quote Catt's comment from below: "Did it smell like a *recovery*"?
it smells like a recovery..
Shit, I am short. The fuckers got me again.
I agreed ugliness lies ahead. I love the way it is always being kicked out a year or two and never going to happen tomorrow. It is as if we can't handle what is coming at us and need more time.
For a long time I have been trying to develop a scenario for a market "super crash" and a reasonable map that would arrive at such a situation. Below is an article looking at how it could happen sooner rather than later.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/flash-crash-on-steroids.html
There could be no 'hell' that would be worse than this day to day reality!
This is the Libertarian wing of hell. You're dead. Didn't you get the forms to fill out?
What's a 'Libertarian'? Sounds like some manner of polititard or something.
they just dont care about appearances AT FUCKING ALL...
that Silver paper price trade today was the most obvious show of market rigging i think that ive seen since 0' fucking 8' even with the take down from 50...
really, march it all the way back down below 21 at the close?????
fuck off...
Clearly, they are scared shitless.
crazy fuck up planet boys
This market.............. can blow me!
IMF is buying everything with it's 29trillion spending limit!
I'm stacking FAZ for the crash in a 2 months or 20 years from now..been doing it for over a year..go big or go home..if you don't stand by your convictions well then you are not all too convinced.
And I know about decay and it can go fuck itself.
His name is John McCloy
If you ever want to see or need an example of completely computer driven, algo-traded, goal seeking, no human involved action just print out the 15 or 30 minute chart on the Nasdaq the last 5 days. Just gorgeous line work by the computers - perfect up spike, straight down, up to the 61% retrace and down, then just a perfectly smooth 45% angle into the close of Friday. Just how they programmed it
And they even managed to screw gold down a point as well. CONGRATS computers are now in control.
Turn off your shields. Resistance is futile.
Craig
Ugliest "market" I can remember. Things that don't matter any more: war, inflation, recession, leverage, interest rates, trade, employment, politics, corp profits, debt, $1.5Q in derivatives... All that does: the pimple-faced MIT grad doesn't forget to mash the button when stocks falter.
Today could be the turning point, though, if carry trades start to unwind. USDJPY's first close below SMA200 since Nov 2012 when Nikkei was 40% cheaper, SPX 30%. Past retreats of USDJPY have not been pretty for stocks: http://pebblewriter.com/markets/usdjpy/
The Bizarro Jerry Market
GDP in the tank for Q1.
GDP for Q2 will be negative.
Markets at all time highs.
Sounds about right. ONWARD!!!!! Even you Yellen.
Again...I think putting some toes in the water are warranted here.
I think you could get an epic rally in treasuries through into August as "Dread September" looms. A good ratio for the average asset moron is I think 60% treasury, 40% equity. Since the bulk are probably 95% equity 5% treasury I think there really is money on the sidelines here as Hitlery's "Plan Ost" grinds to stop and the Republicrats start pondering their Stalingrad called "Iraq." (That thing looks like a full on regional powder keg ready to explode any day now...which does explain the bid in both treasuries and equities btw.)
I really fail to see how the next quarter GDP print will be positive. Refiners got slammed this week as the combination of cheap nat gas and an open spigot to export "was now joined by oil" (yet another total failure of the Hitlary Repulicrat Party) sticks another nail in the coffin of the worst recovery since World War II...indeed probably ever given the debt load.
Default risk is clearly Code Red going into the Fall for a whole variety of state and local functions.
Slow-motion melt-up in progress, BTFATH.
Ride Janet ride until we can't ride no mo.
Well guys it's on the record. This week we found out both America AND Japan consumers are in the tank. No fuck that, they're dead. I was on CNN Money with my eyes bleeding as I read a piece that was saying how a -2.9% GDP wasn't bad, it's all good.
Spain doing haircuts, France unemployment as high as ever, Italy and Greece are toast, with the Ukraine circling the drain. China is starting to show some cracks while Russia continues to laugh and drink Vodka.
2014 is alot more interesting than 2013.
2014 is HALF OVER Already.. what will the 2end half hold in store for us?
The guy who bought his kid a BMW,put him on anti-depressants, gave him the money to buy a gun and turned him loose on my neighbors kids is going to get his 15 minutes of fawning-over from Barbra Walters tonight. We are supposed to what? Feel sorry for him? Give him a soapbox? It also crushes the parents of the boys his son supposedly hacked to death with a kitchen knife - all by himself. All 125 lbs of him. This story stinks: the police who were so quick to excuse themselves, parent who was out leading cheers three days after. There has been so little coherent said about this "episode." But if we are to believe the story we have been told, then this is probably the best public comment I have seen:
"In a more sensible world, Elliot Rodger would have been born in China to Chinese parents who stayed married and worked regular jobs. He would not have had a BMW. He would have, through arranged marriage, found a woman roughly his height. He would have worked a job like his father. But he would have had something this society could never give him.
A place."
More of the same! To say the market is rigged is an understatement. After over 30 years of trading commodities I will flat out state without any reservations that lies and manipulation run rampant. If you think anyone is looking out for the small independent trader you are wrong. An unholy alliance of the Federal Reserve, the government, and the too big to fail has left the rest of us in a precarious position.
For the big boys, its insider information and computer trading, this includes computing patterns that exploit where stops are placed, this improves their ability to wash the weak out of their positions. The bottom-line is that the higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward move. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/markets-more-lies-and-munipulatio...