Crushing The Q2 "Recovery" Dream In 1 Simple Chart

Tyler Durden's picture

For a week or two, the 'news' appeared to confirm the 'hope'; faith that Q1's dysphoria would emerge phoenix-like into Q2 euphoria as a 'hibernating' American public emerging from their weather-shelter and spent-spent-spent all their borrowed-borrowed-borrowed money. That ended last week! Despite the dramatically low volume liftathon in stocks since the FOMC meeting, major risk markets around the world are cracking. European bonds and stocks had a bad week, Treasuries rallied the most in 6 weeks, and the key to it all, USDJPY, slipped to 4 week lows. Why? As the chart below shows, US macro data is collapsing again (right on cue) and stands at 2-month lows... (and is the worst-performing macro nation in the world this year!)



But it's not just top-down that's "broken"...

as Bottom-up Fundamentals are no longer the driver for credit

or equity markets...


Source: Bloomberg and Citi

Bonus Chart: Guess which country has the worst performing "Macro" this year relative to 'exuberant' expectations... USA USA USA

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
stinkhammer's picture

I will gladly pay you on Tuesday for a hamburger today, Mr. Yellen

caShOnlY's picture

I will gladly pay you in Belgium on Tuesday for a hamburger today, Mr. Yellen

-fixed it

tomcat1762's picture

If It's Tuesday, This Must Be Belgium 1969 movie with Suzanne Pleshette, how prophetic even back then!

sunaJ's picture

Ha!  You are using charts and data to demonstrate that stawks cannot go higher for any good reason?  How quaint. 




The world could be on fire next month, but there is NO way they are going to go with a negative GDP number.  Every lie, scam, and fraudulent accounting gimmick is going to be used to muster a number we all laugh about (remember the hilarious jobs number RIGHT before the 2012 election?).  I fully expect a 5.0-7.0% GDP number for Q2, it's going to be that hilarious.

onewayticket2's picture

They need it in Q3. Think election.

But agree all stops will be pulled out.

Headbanger's picture

Oh duhhhh!!

The Federal Reserve is in "self preservation" mode now you mooks!

WTF makes you think "they" can always control the situation THEY ruined in the first place???

What fucking idiots!

Carpenter1's picture

People here place entirely too much confidence in the FED and election years. 2008 was an election year

Mike in GA's picture

The good news is the powers that be at our central bank finally succeeded in divorcing market indices from performance.  The lie has become reality.  Now eat your peas.

nmewn's picture

I do so look Forward! to these econo-weather reports ;-)

BraveSirRobin's picture

This just in: 

Bustberg News, 28 June, 2014 - New York: The uncommonly good weather is having an adverse effect on the economy. With sunny skies and temperatures hovering in the low 70's to mid-80's in much of the nation, workers are taking more time off to enjoy the outdoors, depressing working hours and factory production. In addition, the moderate weather is lowering consumer expenditures on electricity as they do not need it to cool their homes. "With all this nice weather, everyone is out playing golf and such, and not worrying much about work," said Richard Dribble in a statement from the White House.

In other news, Mr. Dribble announced a government cost cutting measure. The president signed an executive order to consolidate the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), Census Bureau (Census), Economic Research Service (ERS), Energy Information Administration (EIA), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES), Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (ORES), and Office of Statistics of Income (SOI) into a single entity to be now called simply the Bureau of Statistics (BS). To further reduce costs, all employees of the previous bureaus and offices are to be furloughed, and all future reports will be developed and released by the White House Press Office.

Finally, Mr. Dribble announced that the president, in solidarity with suffering immigrants crossing the nation's borders, shall hence forth be called "El Presidente" and the title of Speaker of the House is hereby changed to "My Bitch."

Wait What's picture

i left a little 'Richard Dribble' on a chick's face last night. good times.

mt paul's picture

if i really gave a flying fck

those charts would be of concern.


notably the macro 

since the beginning of June...


long silver..

jldpc's picture

Every zipcode should have a blog/website where the names and addresses of the local banksters are openly displayed, and those who oppose guns and random violence, can encourage the random vilonce people to not be so random.

disabledvet's picture

it is interesting that the phone books only list businesses numbers longer people's names and their home phone number. Should we start disconnecting all our devices now? Obviously all this data (and then some!) is available on "the internet."

Needless to say the "oversight" mechanism is quite something. Still nothing from Congress other than "brain zapping." Maybe someone should introduce a bill or something?

q99x2's picture

It is a conspiracy that is a war against us.

Oldwood's picture

life is war...always has been.

fight from fear or fight for greed. TPTB started with greed but will end in fear.

hairInTheSoup's picture

that's exactly what ptb wants you to think :

"life is war" & so they win

but if you go:

"life is love" or "life is freedom", fuck all them that want me to believe that my life is a war

then the card castle that is their belief system collapse, then the illusion of their power vanished

life is love, always been

your beliefs are manipulated, ptb have always done so to hide the truth from you

Headbanger's picture

Yeah right.

Tell that stupid la la land bull shit to every predator and prey species.

Or tell it to F5 tornado survivors.

Life is a war

hairInTheSoup's picture

annoyingly simplistic, ignorant & irrelevant mix up from a successfully brainwashed mind

so man fight man because chicken is a prey for crocodile ?

man fight & destroy nature to survive ?

we cannot find ways to survival, balance & harmony through love and understanding, only through hate & conflict ?

if we suffer from tornadoes, the only solution is to see nature as the ennemy to fight (and destroy) ?

(burn you tv, meditate, travel... grow up)

Okienomics's picture

The small fraction of the population known as psychopaths convince a large proportion of the population that life is war. They have no empathy and seek only their own benefit. They are in every walk of life. And they are undetectable. Some are brilliantly intelligent, many are dull. But they are highly over-represented at high levels of organizations due to their willingness to 'do whatever it takes' to 'get the job done.'

It is unwise to castigate anyone for viewing life as war, because their experience informs them it is so. Nature reflects this reality, not tornados, but the underlying life and death struggle happening every moment. We may aspire to rise above, but religious institutions were likely founded by psychopaths seeking power, and are thus a dead end for anything but population control. Each must work out his own salvation.

Headbanger's picture

You're both fucking la la land iintellectual wanna be idiots.

La la la la la la la...

And good luck with your ":holier than thou" attitude in the financial collapse ahead.

It'll be fun to watch.

And I've seen the way you holier than thou, peace and love types want to get physical with me when for saying this.

So much for your fucking self righteousness.

hairInTheSoup's picture

after the collapse, if you see your survival as a war, you won't make it very far :
you'll be alone, there will be plenty of alone guys like you but stronger (and karma is a bitch so you'll meet those), you won't be able to fight alone peaceful groups that work together and they won't take psycho in.

but maybe you're rambo or you'll manage to create a group of likewise psychopath to happily crush peace loving people to survive.

after all you'll have an excuse for your actions : life is a war so your psychopathology is not your fault (that's the point right, to have an external excuse for your actions/to not be held responsible for your actions ?)

ps: i have no idea why religion got mixed up in this, it's about CONSCIOUSNESS (and btw you're subconsciously using some alinsky tactics to express yourself, you're a very interesting sheeple psychology case)

Al Huxley's picture

Seems like the best of all possible fucking worlds really - equity prices freed from the bondage of mundane shit like 'earnings' and 'profitability', interest rates freed from the bondage of antiquated concepts like 'creditworthiness' and 'level of indebtedness'.  It looks like the coast is finally clear, smooth sailing ahead until the end of time now.

GS-DickinDaMuppets's picture

AL H, Thank goodness you didn't put a: /SARC, at the end of your post, as now I can truley look forward to -  "clear, smooth sailing ahead until the end of time now."

OH JOY! OH JOY! and hallelujah, too.

Bemused Observer's picture

"Crushing The Q2 "Recovery" Dream In 1 Simple Chart"

Hey, if that dream hasn't already been squashed flat by massive mudslide of reality, that one simple chart is just going to bounce off their brains like the second sperm at a fertilization.

Iriestx's picture

Stocks will never, ever go down as long as the printing presses are running.  Good economy?  New record high for stocks.  Bad economy?  New record high for stocks.  Global thermonuclear war?  New record high for stocks.


Charts, earnings and macro don't matter and never will again until everything burns to the ground and is reset.  Stocks will continue to set new record highs until they go to zero.

Headbanger's picture

"Stocks will continue to set new record highs until they go to zero."

Oh that makes fucking sense..


g speed's picture

when the dow rises to 1 million and it takes 5 million to buy bread  --then yeah , its at zero---

Headbanger's picture

Must be some virus spreading making people zomb-tards (zombie-retards)

Or it's the brain washing that happens to people who listened to too many Obam-tard speeches


sidiji's picture

if companies will be able to sell bread for 5mil, they will be worth a lot more than what they are now in dollar terms.

you guys need to take some remedial econ 101.  why do you think the money crowd is buying up houses and stocks...real assets, instead of t-bonds or leaving their wealth in cash equivalents to be inflated away..

The Axe's picture

Tyler US industrial production goods great? any thoughts?

Magooo's picture

I'd love to short this fucker, but I would never collect.  This will make the 30's look like a picnic. 

andrewp111's picture

You have to pick your timing right to play it in options. This could go on for years before it finally breaks.

Not Goldman Sachs's picture

She will print moar....

AdvancingTime's picture

Regardless of what you name it the "Federal Reserve Nightmare" or the "Yellen conundrum", the box Ben Bernanke made when he painted both himself and the Federal Reserve in a corner remains. Bernanke has by passing the chairmanship to Yellen escaped from the QE trap but left the rest of us fully in its grasp.

With a policy of loose and cheap money  and an inflation target of just 2% the Federal Reserve  continues to please those gambling that not fighting the Fed guarantees profits. As many Americans are forced to pay higher food, gasoline, and health insurance premiums, I wish someone would let the Fed know we are already there. Any thought that inflation is not higher has come from the false illusion brought from lower payments on things like auto loans and mortgages, this is a one off and will not continue. More on this subject in the article below.


AdvancingTime's picture

We may soon be forced to face our economic Armageddon. The forces that have driven stock markets ever-higher and upward may be beginning to wane. Many markets became distorted years ago when QE and super low interest rates hit the economy in an effort to lessen many of the missteps of recent years.

This has been more helpful in holding up the underlying value of assets and derivatives it now appears than helping to repair a wounded economy. QE has up to now stopped an implosion of derivatives including the resulting contagion and shock that would have spread throughout the financial system. Unfortunately the economy has not fared as well as these asset prices and in many ways these policies have harmed Main Street. More on this subject in the article below.


flyonmywall's picture

Fuck that shit. I'm not going to be buying anything but the basic necessities for the next 3 months.

The garden is coming in nicely, so no buying tomatoes, cucumbers, radishes, various herbs, and maybe some cantaloupes. That will shaft personal consumption and skew the numbers for sure.

They will blame GDP drop on the summer home gardeners who use their own labor (not included in GDP) to garden, and not buy stuff.

Other than that, not buying any durable goods either. Fuck the GDP !!

Adjust that, motherfuckers !


whidbey-2's picture

There is concern, but only concern.  In the longer run things will not work out. As for Janet and her assistant are aware that the wheels are off the bus, globally.  Now the goal will be to hold things constant, like they could, and wait to see who goes down first Abe, Draghi, or Obummer.  Silver anyone? The final fix is a war which is just now cranking up. Post the forth should start things moving toward in Iraq. Bring the carriers in closer.

Benign's picture

Can someone with a terminal post the definition of macro variable thx

Cult of Criminality's picture

Found out today Zombies know at least one word.

Unexpected ...     Hmm, now where have we heard that before?