BIS Slams "Market Euphoria", Finds "Puzzling Disconnect" Between Economy And Market

Tyler Durden's picture

"... it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally....  Despite the euphoria in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity, large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions.

 

As history reminds us, there is little appetite for taking the long-term view. Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer.  Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms. Or to address balance sheet problems head-on during a bust when seemingly easier policies are on offer. The temptation to go for shortcuts is simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere in the end.

     - Bank of International Settlements, 84th Annual Report

It was a year ago when the general manager of the Bank of International Settlements (the central banks' central bank), Jamie Caruana warned that the "Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over." Since then central banks have proven their own supervisor wrong in their ability to kick the can, because even as the Fed has commenced tapering its own QE (due to the same bond market liquidity issues we warned about last summer) the ECB has more than offset the Fed's brief attempt at policy normalization by escalating, for the first time in history, from ZIRP to NIRP. In other words, the Kool-Aid keeps flowing.

Which brings us to the BIS' just released annual report. There are many reason to read the full report cover to cover, but perhaps the most prominent one is that, once again, the Bank of International Settlements has merely compiled a book report of all Zero Hedge posts not only over the past year, but since our inception.

A quick summary of the report comes from FT:

The Bank for International Settlements has warned that “euphoric” financial markets have become detached from the reality of a lingering post-crisis malaise, as it called for governments to ditch policies that risk stoking unsustainable asset booms.

 

While the global economy is struggling to escape the shadow of the crisis of 2007-09, capital markets are “extraordinarily buoyant”, the Basel-based bank said, in part because of the ultra-low monetary policy being pursued around the world. Leading central banks should not fall into the trap of raising rates “too slowly and too late”, the BIS said, calling for policy makers to halt the steady rise in debt burdens around the world and embark on reforms to boost productivity.

 

In its annual report, the BIS also warned of the risks brewing in emerging markets, setting out early warning indicators of possible banking crises in a number of jurisdictions, including most notably China.

 

“Particularly for countries in the late stages of financial booms, the trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on,” it said.

 

The BIS, the bank for central banks, has been a longstanding sceptic about the benefits of ultra-stimulative monetary and fiscal policies and its latest intervention reflects mounting concern that the rebound in capital markets and real estate is built on fragile foundations.

Or, as Hyman Minsky and Zero Hedge would call it "common sense."

But why use an establishment paper, one whose very existence has repeatedly been shown to rely on perpetuating the broken and unsustainable status quo, when one can quote from the BIS itself. Of course, to anyone who has read Zero Hedge either extensively or in isolation in the recent and not so recent past, all of this will be very familiar territory.

Below we present some of the key excerpts from the 84th BIS Annual Report. As you read these, please recall all those idiots who said the Fed is not solely focused on boosting stock prices and that anyone claiming that is a conspiracy theorist.

Overall, it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally.

Yes BIS, we know you read us. Here's why:

The global economy continues to face serious challenges. Despite a pickup in growth, it has not shaken off its dependence on monetary stimulus. Monetary policy is still struggling to normalise after so many years of extraordinary accommodation.  Despite the euphoria in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity, large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions. And despite lacklustre long-term growth prospects, debt continues to rise. There is even talk of secular stagnation.

And here the BIS explains broken markets so easily, even a Janet Yellen can get it:

Financial markets have been exuberant over the past year, [...] dancing mainly to the tune of central bank decisions. Volatility in equity, fixed income and foreign exchange markets has sagged to historical lows. Obviously, market participants are pricing in hardly any risks.

* * *

Growth has picked up, but long-term prospects are not that bright. Financial markets are euphoric, but progress in strengthening banks’ balance sheets has been uneven and private debt keeps growing. Macroeconomic policy has little room for manoeuvre to deal with any untoward surprises that might be sprung, including a normal recession.

* * *

There is a common element in all this. In no small measure, the causes of the post-crisis malaise are those of the crisis itself – they lie in a collective failure to get to grips with the financial cycle. Addressing this failure calls for adjustments to policy frameworks – fiscal, monetary and prudential – to ensure a more symmetrical response across booms and busts. And it calls for moving away from debt as the main engine of growth. Otherwise, the risk is that instability will entrench itself in the global economy and room for policy manoeuvre will run out.

* * *

The combined public sector debt of the G7 economies has grown by close to 40 percentage points, to some 120% of GDP in the post-crisis period – a key factor behind the 20 percentage point increase in total (public plus private sector) debt-to-GDP ratios globally.

 

 

... government debt-to-GDP ratios have risen further; in several cases, they appear to be on an unsustainable path.

* * *

Once more, communication from the Federal Reserve and the ECB [...] helped support credit and equity markets, with the major stock exchanges reaching record highs in May and June 2014.

* * *

The S&P 500 Index, for  gained almost 20% in the 12 months to May 2014, whereas expected future earnings grew less than 8% over the same period. The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 stood at 25 in May 2014, six units higher than its average over the previous 50 years.

* * *

On record low default rates:

Low corporate bond yields not only reflect expectations of a low likelihood of default and low levels of risk premia, but also contribute to the suppression of actual default rates, in that the availability of cheap credit makes it easier for troubled borrowers to refinance. The sustainability of this process will ultimately be put to the test when interest rates normalise.

What forward guidance leads to:

If the public fails to fully understand the conditionality of the guidance, the central bank’s reputation and credibility may be at risk if the rate path is revised frequently and substantially, even though the changes adhere to the conditionality originally announced. Forward guidance can also give rise to financial risks in two ways. First, if financial markets become narrowly focused on it, a recalibration of the guidance could lead to disruptive market reactions. Second, and more importantly, forward guidance could lead to a perceived delay in the speed of monetary policy normalisation. This could encourage excessive risk-taking and foster a build-up of financial vulnerabilities.

As Bloomberg summarizes, "Central bank policy makers, who expressed concern low market volatility is masking future risks, are helping suppress price swings with their accommodative monetary policy." Aka, Bill Dudley hypocrisy 101:

The developments in the year under review thus indicate that monetary policy had a powerful impact on the entire investment spectrum through its effect on perceived value and risk. Accommodative monetary conditions and low benchmark yields – reinforced by subdued volatility – motivated investors to take on more risk and leverage in their search for yield.

But the biggest "heresy": even the BIS is suggesting that, gasp, deflation isn't the end of the world:

It is essential to discuss the risks and costs of falling prices in a dispassionate way. The word “deflation” is extraordinarily charged: it immediately raises the spectre of the Great Depression. In fact, the Great Depression was the exception rather than the rule, in the intensity of both its price declines and the associated output losses. Historically, periods of falling prices have often coincided with sustained output growth. And the experience of more recent decades is no exception. Moreover, conditions have changed substantially since the 1930s, not least with regard to downward wage flexibility. This is no reason to be complacent about the risks and costs of falling prices: they need to be monitored and assessed closely, especially where debt levels are high. But it is a reason to avoid knee-jerk reactions prompted by emotion.

And the punchline:

Never before have central banks tried to push so hard.

Which nobody will care about until it's too late, for one simple reason:

As history reminds us, there is little appetite for taking the long-term view. Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer.  Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms. Or to address balance sheet problems head-on during a bust when seemingly easier policies are on offer. The temptation to go for shortcuts is simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere in the end.

So when even the BIS says it's game over, it may be time to sell every last VIX contract, because the alternative - admission that the central banks have finally failed - is hardly an enjoyable one.

The alternative message is more pleasant: indeed - why worry. Just because every single previous central-bank inflated bubble has always burst, resulting in tears for most (if not those who precipitated the crash and managed to load up on liquidating hard assets at firesale prices) this time will be different.

As for the BIS authors of its last two annual reports: please stay away from nail guns.

Full BIS report below (pdf link)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
LetThemEatRand's picture

"Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer."  

And therein lies the real problem.  To the BIS, "everyone feel[s] .. richer," because to the BIS, "everyone" is defined as members of the financial sector.   They forgot there is an "everyone else," who did not benefit from the boom in the financial sector.

JaKst3r's picture

I think that is a direct dig at the politicians and banks closest to the well still enjoying stealing the gains of their actions..

suteibu's picture

I think the BIS is just trying to be the first out with this to try to appear as if they are credible and to distance themselves from the ultimate outcome.

jim249's picture

ZH was years ahead of these guys.

suteibu's picture

Of course.  But ZH is just an internet blog with no official standing.

ilion's picture

BIS is part of the group of scumbags who have created these distroted markets in the first place.

Manthong's picture

So they have been the Bankers Inhaling Snow for the past few years?

SamAdams's picture

As part of their code, they tell you what is coming.  It is up to you to recognize and take precautions.

Brought to you by the triangle club.

Manthong's picture

But interesting to note, Greenspan’s “Irrational Exuberance” comment was made in 1996.. years before the market bubbled up and actually burst.

mvsjcl's picture

The BIS is puzzled? LOL! They're the douche bags directing this massive market cluster fuck!

BKbroiler's picture

they're puzzled by the disconnect? really? let me give this a go:  The last time the dow crashed the global economy went with it.  Anyone with a stake in that not happening again (Central Banks & co) is all in.  Not the Bernanke or Yellen put, but the Mutually Assured Destruction put.  Shit I think I just convinced myself to buy stocks.

scraping_by's picture

You needed the word in April 09. The rest of us outsiders worry about not getting the word when the spigot's turned off and the everybody piles in at the exits.

BKbroiler's picture

Like many people, I lost a good portion of my ass in the Horrendous Financial Kablooie of 08 and erroneously got out for good.  At least the gold trade was good for a few more years.

Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

From Dimitri Speck's work, we know that intervention in the gold markets with paper trading in NY and London as well as  central bank silent physical gold leasing CENTRALLY COORDINATED BY THE BIS accelerated in August 1993.

Rigging gold leads to rigged interest rates and excessively loose monetary policy with the usual series of bubbles.

Greenspan knew about the rigging of gold and interest rates and knew what was coming in the equity markets.

Thanks BIS for your concern now after your 20 years of manipulation have sent the global economy off the edge.

flacon's picture

I am shocked. Shocked, I tell you! No one could have seen this coming. /sarc

 

Breaking News: S&P futures up 0.11%. Green light to buy more I suppose.... sigh... 

NoDebt's picture

BIS knows exactly what's up.  They're setting themselves up as "the adults in the room" to be tapped to run monetary policy under the NWO, after the nation-state level central banks have been shown to be unreliable and unworthy of trust in such an important matter.

Just because they say what we say doesn't mean they're on our side.

markmotive's picture

Watch Chris Martenson's Crash Course. He'll tell you all about the fu#king disconnect and then some.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2014/06/chris-martensons-accelerated-crash...

Latina Lover's picture

BIS knows that financial markets booms do not end well and is positioning in advance of the inevitable crashes.  Personally, I find the BIS to even worse the Fed, and I would gladly welcome its demise.

Da Yooper's picture

Oy vhats da problem

 

vee skim a little here

 

vee rigg a little there

 

manipulate a little here

 

vhats da problem vit us skimming a sheckle or two no vone vill miss it

 

It is all just the vay vee do bidness

disabledvet's picture

Funny that they would complain. "Bankers think there is too much debt in the world!" Really? Gee, thanks.

Tell that to your Governments that are racking up trillions in debt BIS.

In the meantime "the citizens will deal." The fools are the ones who pay their taxes? Let's ask Jack Lew...he was in charge of that division at Citigroup. "No problem with his confirmation hearings either."

It really is sad to even have to say all this at this point actually. No one actually believes in their own rhetoric anymore do they?

The computer already knows "if it's not even based on the pretense of fact" (that data exists) "then there are only a VERY a finite number of fictions available" thus making behavior all to predictable.

If however the machine discovers even the pretense of a fact that is acknowledged to exist...a "btu" or a "mph"...it will simply move along.

scraping_by's picture

Believing the rhetoric may not be in the point. It's probably the same as Barry's usual headfake, when he says the right thing and then goes on to do the opposite. The MSM has to bless it as truth, but that's their job.

max2205's picture

Seriously,  bubbles don't end while central banks actually are buying common stock. 

scraping_by's picture

Yes, and if it crashed they'd lose lots of money. Which means they'd have to print more.

It's also a good excuse for their sock puppets in government to shift more of the nation's wealth away from social needs to bank bailouts. So instead of one nation at a time, they camn get everyone into that death spiral. The test run in Greece worked pretty well, it's time to scale up.

o2sd's picture

Correct, bubbles end BEFORE central banks begin actually buying common stock. It is the price movement that carries on, but the bubble is well and truly burst.

 

fleur de lis's picture

The BIS is a hive mate of the FED. Both were hatched before WW1 to buy up Europe for pennies on the dollar afterwards because the perps who spawned both knew the outcome well ahead of time. Because they planned it that way. 

JuliaS's picture

BIS and IMF are upper branches of the FED. Even through it appears that the Fed is leverating the rest of the cabal through its reserve currency, they're not calling any of the shots. Got to remember that the Fed itself was a result international central bankers (at the time stationed in Britain) to pry open American markets to the same exploits that had ravanged the European economy for centuries. The Fed has more connections with the Bank Of Israel, than with any other institution. They receive their marching orders from the outside...

... then again, when it comes to people in charge of cental banks, we're talking about "world ciitzens" - people with unlimited funds and briefcases full of passports. Citizens of no country in particular. Most governments will offer investor visas and even citizenships, if the price is right. Bankers may have residences in one country, offices in another, mistresses in the third and kids getting an edication in a dozen other.

In their world there are no borders. Those lines in the sand are there for herding the rest of us - the common folk. They exist for compartmentalization of sentiment. Like water dams they create points where energy can be generated through the effects of gravity. And if anything's to happen to any specific compartment, the bankers are free to migrate to a safer pasture, leaving the rest of us quaranteed, cut off from the world they might want to enjoy.

Cathartes Aura's picture

THIS.

if you are reading words telegraphed to media, then those words are meant to be read.  the measures taken otherwise are for those who compose the "press releases" - always.

if you know about the BIS or IMF or any other alphabet-acronym of string-pullers, then you are meant to watch them while the "other hand" continues its work - those agencies work on behalf of their Agenda, but are in no way the full Agenda.  it's up to individual minds to see beyond and through the massive, global scam perpetrated.

In their world there are no borders.

there are no borders, no nationstates - all that exists is connected, indivisible.  the only lines are those drawn in minds, via "beliefs" installed to keep the scam ongoing.

know what it is you desire to believe, and know that it is your choice to believe.

o2sd's picture

Probably one the best posts on ZH. About 10 years ago, all of the Western Powers, in the name of terrorism, began the process of making it more difficult to obtain a passport. However, if you look carefully at these changes, the outcome is that is makes it more difficult for citizens of the Western Powers to leave. In other words, as you so eloquently state in your post above, more and more of the common folk are trapped, leaving them to deal with the mess the world citizens leave behind when they flee for greener and safer pastures.

 

Carpenter1's picture

Think your long position is safe until 2016? Think again. And this time you'll feel doubly stupid after being warned by even the status quo.

 

I'll have no sympathy for those who get caught this time around, neither will 99% of ZH'ers.

lasvegaspersona's picture

jim249

The BIS is always lumped in with 'the evil bankers' here at ZH. The idea that they see the problem as a normal person might causes surprise here and a good deal of suspicion.

The possibility that some central bankers might not be profiting from and in agreement with current market activiites is an idea that should be watched closely. If anyone can exert a change it is the BIS.

mvsjcl's picture

You postulate that the Central Banks are separate entities? Beholden to their sovereign nations? That's quite a stretch, don't you think?

teslaberry's picture

the bis fed and other deep state actions are what zero hedge reports on, not the other way around. 

 

this report is not 'news' it's a report about what the bis and fed ahve been doing for years, straight from their own mouths!

Drummond's picture

If Switzerland thinks it's staying neutral this time around then they're well wide of the mark. Chocolate, fondue and pre-charged to blow bridges are not getting them out of this pickle. I piss on your snow.

LetThemEatRand's picture

My opinion is that there are no innocent mistakes in all of this.  The central bankers knew full well what they were doing.  Perhaps many in the financial industry who made millions believe the BS, but the guys at the top who made billions always knew it was BS.  They enriched themselves exponentially with the remaining wealth of the middle class, and now they are beginning to tell us they will be taking what's left of the husk of our economy and moving to a well fortified island somewhere and good luck, but they meant well.

malek's picture

 but they meant well

Unfortunately that is not limited to central bankers or politicians nowadays, as you might be aware

Da Yooper's picture

oy

 

You know vhat dhey say

 

a sheckle stolen  here

 

a sheckle stolen  there

 

& pretty soon you are talking real money

RaceToTheBottom's picture

It was for the children...... their children.

Global Observer's picture

They enriched themselves exponentially with the remaining wealth of the middle class, and now they are beginning to tell us they will be taking what's left of the husk of our economy and moving to a well fortified island somewhere and good luck, but they meant well.

They created the massive middle class and when the physical resources are no longer sufficient to sustain this huge middle class, they are reverting to a system that worked for almost all of human history, a tiny elite, a small middle class and a huge underclass. It is kind of funny that when the middle class was booming they congratulate themselves and when they don't like what is happening, the responsibility is someone else's.

Cathartes Aura's picture

.

They created the massive middle class . . .  when the middle class was booming they congratulate themselves and when they don't like what is happening, the responsibility is someone else's.

privilege always believes in its inherent position "over" others, that is the function of hierarchy.  if wealth is valued, then the wealthy-er are more "valuable" than those they see as worth-less.

in cultures based on accumulation, people will be trained to scramble over each other mercilessly in order to accumulate more, be it in "markets" or resource wars or whatever means to grab-more is currently available.  and they will look to their "lesser" accumulators and feel exceptional.

as the schemes unravel, and history proves they always unravel, the infighting is kept local, the hatred and anger turned on each other, and those who write the story retreat to celebrate their latest cycle of thieving.

JaKst3r's picture

In fact the report comes out and says it...

 

This raises the issue of the balance of risks concerning when and how fast to normalise policy (Chapter V). In contrast to what is often argued, central banks need to pay special attention to the risks of exiting too late and too gradually. This reflects the economic considerations just outlined: the balance of benefits and costs deteriorates as exceptionally accommodative conditions stay in place. And political economy concerns also play a key role. As past experience indicates, huge financial and political economy pressures will be pushing to delay and stretch out the exit. The benefits of unusually easy monetary policies may appear quite tangible, especially if judged by the response of financial markets; the costs, unfortunately, will become apparent only over time and with hindsight. This has happened often

enough in the past

 

Doh..

 

DavidPierre's picture

1930-ongoing:

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is created by a group of the world's major central banks. The ostensible purpose of the BIS, established under J.P. Morgan banker Owen D. Young's so-called Young Plan, is to provide the Allies with German reparations for World War I.

Strangely enough, the BIS soon turns itself to exactly the opposite purpose, siphoning money from the U.S. to the Nazis to build the Hitler war machine.

The structure of the BIS, safely tucked away in war-free Basle, Switzerland, is inspired by none other than Hjalmar Schacht, who will shortly become Nazi Germany's Minister of Economics and president of the Reichsbank, a man with powerful Wall Street connections.

Even before Hitler rose to political power, Schacht had pushed for an institution which would maintain channels of communication and collusion between the world's financial leaders in the event of a world war.

By its very structure, agreed to by the governments of all participating nations, the BIS is the perfect instrument for the boys in the back room. Written into the BIS charter is total immunity from closure, seizure or censure, regardless of who is at war with who. How convenient.

By 1939, the BIS will have invested millions in Nazi Germany while the Nazis, in turn, will have deposited vast sums looted from various groups of "subhumans" into the BIS.

Aside from laundering Nazi loot, the BIS will grow to be a supranational club with membership restricted to the handful of families who have defacto control of much of the global economy.

Bay of Pigs's picture

And look at who is there now. Ex Goldman Sachs managing director, and current CEO of the NYFED, the William Dudley.

"In 2012, Mr. Dudley was appointed chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Previously, Mr. Dudley served as chairman of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems of the BIS from 2009 to 2012. He is a member of the board of directors of the BIS and a vice chairman of the Economic Club of New York."

http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/orgchart/dudley.html

TeamDepends's picture

They just can't help themselves!  "The temptation to go for shortcuts is simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere in the end."  This is akin to "I didn't want to rape her, but she was dressed too provocatively."

LetThemEatRand's picture

No doubt.  The middle class really did ask for it, what with the way they were dressed.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Don't confuse change of tactics with change of heart or change of nature.

They're simply PLAYING FOR TIME. To delay the Reset, i.e. Dollar's loss of GRC status. And thus keep the Status Quo: Power, Wealth, Lifestyle. Same as it ever was.

ZH Snob's picture

"... it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally....

 

Tyler could have easily set them straight long ago, but did they even ask his opinion?

Noooooooooooooooo!

suteibu's picture

So the central banker's central bank is complaining about the central banker's policies?  What's up with that?