100 Years Ago Today: "Keep Calm And Buy Stocks - World War I Is Priced In"

Tyler Durden's picture

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Amid the growing geopolitical powder keg of 2014, the deafening roar of BIS-deniers proclaiming that everything bad is priced-in and nothing good is priced-in dominates the mainstream media. This is nothing new... as no less than The Financial Times proclaims on June 30th 1914 that "stock markets have been scarcely affected by the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne... there's no evidence that stock holders took fright" as it's priced in (or contained?). It seems things didn't quite work out as 'priced-in'.



h/t @FT

Things were not quite as priced in as 'they' thought...

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TrulyStupid's picture

Yeah, but there was still a good 5 cent cigar.

Jumbotron's picture

"The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets."

"War is a racket"

Ghordius's picture

in defense of the venerable Financial Times: there was no reason to expect all the mobilizations that followed. or, better - a chapter of history that seems to be forgotten - nobody knew how many secret treaties were around, and got triggered all at once

since then, involved citizens in Europe have always asked for a ban of secret treaties, in particular defense treaties (which btw is also a step toward transparency, accountability and democracy)

and in this spirit, the best part of the EU is still it's Council. why? hehehe, because all our dear prime ministers etc. have to meet, regularly. it's the treaty. which here means it's the law

even if it's poison for them in their domestic politics. as it often is in the UK. they have to meet. they have to play in the concert for europe

no "I'm not talking with that backstabbing bastard" and no "we fear our relations have worsened to the point we retract our diplomatic corps"


Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Good thing they didn't have enought nukes to kill everyone 10 times over back then.   Sadly, people have forgotten about the Cold War, and how Mutually Assured Destruction kept us all alive.   A war with Russia or China won't be the same as a war with Afghanistan or Iraq.

MansaMusa's picture

John McCain would disagree with you , lol

walküre's picture

If Germany had succeeded with the Baghdad railroad the world today would be dealing in a gold backed PetroDeutschMark. Why gold you ask? Because there would be no propaganda from Hollyweird brainwashing the world that "gold is a barbaric relic".

Hitler, Stalin, Mao would have never happened, America would have a decent rail network, McDonalds would be serving real food, paying real wages, Monsanto never see the light of day. The Brits could finally come out of the closet and openly state they prefer coffee over tea anway. The French would still hate the Jews but nobody would have assisted them in decimating the French Jewish population.

Baghdad and Irak would have long been secularized and democratized by the Germans and it would be the shining democracy in the Middle East. There would be no "Palestine Question" and subsequently Israel would be a province of the United States of Europe.


halfasleep's picture

edit: All I got from that was that title font is just fantastic.

TheGardener's picture

Jumbo, Ghord and Walk all in the same thread talking beyond one could not be bothered with , all my favorite disinformation agents adding BS for fucks sake and not minding each other !

Dare you MF , get a new nick, you have been but all exposed
as agents of some kind.

Sort of your nick sou got onto here might as well cast upon
your neck one day.

walküre's picture

+1 stick to gardening and leave the heavy lifting to us agents!

Jumbotron's picture

I think he's been gardening in his "weeds" too much.

Or English as a second language is a bit of challenge for him / her.

Or all the above.

TheGardener's picture

You got me beat once more. I`ll do as you say and will relieve you off your load if my time has come.

Sandmann's picture

The German General Staff went on vacation in July not expecting the Austrians to cause so much trouble. If you read Mein Kampf Hitler himself states it was a disaster for Germany to shackle itself to the Hapsburg corpse and Germany needed a far better ally than Austria-Hungary - either England or Russia.

The secret treaty was not even a treaty. It was a private discussion with Earl Grey and presumably Winston Churchill promising France that the Royal Navy would protect France in the even of war with Germany something Britain did not do in 1870.

On the other hand Asquith as PM was not minded to go to war to save France and stated so - it was lobbying by George Lloyd and other Conservatives to bounce the Liberal Government into war.

Without Britain the war would have been much shorter and had the policy of lord Salisbury continued of NOT joining alliances might never have happened.

As for secret treaties Ghordius you place too much emphasis on Wilson's 14 points. In fact The Symington Commission in 1970s US found secret treaties where Kennedy pledged US troops to keep Franco in power. There are probably secret sections to NATO treaties with regard to NATO being able to invade member countries when internal order is threatened......such as Article 6

tjeffersonsghost's picture

Yours is a required read, will do my own research, but interesting indeed.

TheGardener's picture

This is your thread G , war is priced in. Your EU minders
have war as their founding principle, escalate the founding
troubles of a condescending socialist nightmare upon the peoples and once they riot, take control.

worbsid's picture

At retail $5 per pack, there is not even a good 25 cent cigarette now. 

Flakmeister's picture

Try $10 or more a pack...

PhilofOz's picture

That would be a bargain in Australia. Some brands end up costing around $1 per cigarette now. http://wholesale.pattersonroad.com.au/rrp_cigarettes.jsp

TabakLover's picture

Today you are lucky to find a good $5 cigar.

asking4it2k's picture

TWO major differences from 1914 to 2014.. The US FED was not as agressive with the money expansion in 1914 as they are today. There were not as many global oligarchs in 1914 as today controlling everything. Those two reasons is why the stock market will not crash.

NotApplicable's picture

Out of Chaos, Order.

Colonel Klink's picture

Can we get to the chaos part already so we can order all the criminals executed?

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Can we get to the chaos part already...

Be careful what you ask for, as it will neither be the criminals nor stockholders that will be executed.

Colonel Klink's picture

Krugman just jizzed in his pants when seeing that picture.  War, the innocent dying for the guilty.


Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Innocent is a big word... maybe it's more like the ignorant and stupid dying for the psychopaths.

prains's picture

when .Gov starts trying to conscript kids to become the pin pullers, that's when this whole thing becomes totally unglued. Kids today are nothing like the 1914 kids both in good and bad ways.

Colonel Klink's picture

But, it's just like Call of Doodie.  You just respawn, don't you?

Colonel Klink's picture

Doesn't matter what I say, war is inevitable.  Banksters, the ZOG, and the MIC say so.

Boot ---> Face

walküre's picture

Has war actually ever stopped?

Jumbotron's picture

Is there a place on earth where someone doesn't want what another has?

Then...no...war has never stopped.

HHmmm......"thou shalt not covet"....where have I heard that before.

Colonel Klink's picture

In the grand story book, it's the 10 amendments.

Jumbotron's picture

Or rather....the 10 suggestions.

As I've said before....even as a believer.....i will meet anyone half way if they wish to throw out the first 4 commandments since they deal with a deity.

And let's all agree and ACT upon the remaining 6.


Honor thy mother and father

Thou shalt not commit murder

Thou shalt not commit adutery

Thou shalt not steal

Thou shalt not bear witness against thy neighbor

Thou shalt not covet


And what's interesting is there are 3 sort of sub-sets of covetousness that the last commandment speaks to

Do not covet your neighbor's house, wife, property (i.e. servents, animals, land, etc.)

Of course....Christ summed it all up pretty neatly with this....."Love thy neighbor as yourself".  In other words....show love to your neighbor by NOT doing the above mentioned things to him / her.


Why would you need tort reformed if we all reformed ourselves first ?  Why would TRILLIONS of dollars annually be wasted in wars, Ponzi schemes, lawsuits, wealth transfer schemes, etc, etc, be wasted if these basic tenents were lived everyday by the majority of us?

But....we all throughout history have known these things intuitively.  But once a grievance has been set upon us....it's hard to turn the other cheek.  And also in response, we throw up barriers around us and mentally say "I have to screw them before they screw me".....and then once that spiritual virus is out, it infects nearly everyone.

Hard to kill that virus.  So we end up killing each other....and ourselves.




Jumbotron's picture

"By the sweat of your brow you will eat your food until you return to the ground, since from it you were taken; for dust you are and to dust you will return."


And this is the reason we are in the shit we are in.  Whether you believe in the Genesis story or not.....throughout history individuals have sought to mitigate this curse and to rebuild a Utopia for themselves while making conditions for the rest us so that we toil the earth for their leisure and comfort.  All the while dangling the carrot out to the sod busters that if you work hard enough for me...or utilize our techniques (graft, greed, Ponzi economics) you too can come up from the curse and live with us in Paradise Restored.  And we all fall for it.

And as the picture shows......too many of us die for their dreams of Utopia.

prains's picture

Their allegiance is to themselves, their family and their friends, only the neocon christian kids will go willingly to the slaughter as they've been duly indoctrinated in the "word".....Gov is going to have to push all the chips in and risk it all


edit: yes i know it's not what you want ot hear but you know it's true, I've been to evangelical churches and listened to how the "word" is used. The transistion to "you must die to protect" is done very easily and the response will be immediate by many who "follow". This is how it's been done for centuries why is now any different? ......what are the chances all three boys in these photos were hard core christians? 99 out of 100?

worbsid's picture

After Korea, Vietnam, Middle East useless wars, neither are their parents.  The concept, "I disagree with what you say but I will die for your right to say it." is long past.

teslaberry's picture

the man who invented poison chlorine gas also invented fertilizer. guess which he is known for ?

a jewish chemist who worked for a german industrialized---bosch--haber. bosch is still around, well known german industrial quality engineering firm. 

the invention of the nitrating process for taking n2 from the air and attaching hydrogen to it to make nh4 (amonia) is the basis for all modern nitrate fertilizer compounds. 


it is THIS process more than any anti-biotic or vaccination which helped take the population of 1 Billion only on hundred years ago to 7 billion today . 

fertilizer. results in surplus yields and food exports. without fertilizer the world may well have remained at a growth rate leading to 3 or 4 billion today rather than 7. 




Major Key Tonality's picture

He also invented zyklon a and then the odor free successor zyklon b. The irony. 



Jumbotron's picture

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.


pcrs's picture

His wife committed suicide because of his work on poisonous gas.

masterinchancery's picture

And heading back to the 1 billion level, or lower, in the century. The Haber process doesn't make a difference if there is no topsoil or water to grow crops.

Uchtdorf's picture

Look at the filthy "non-war" part of that picture. I bet just as many died from dysentery as bullets and gas. That's chaos out where the rubber meets the road. Most pampered Americans wouldn't last 3 days. Lay down, whimpering and die.

If you're an armchair prepper, it's time to "be about it, don't talk about it."

Jumbotron's picture

And then to top off the carnage of WW1,  nature bitch slapped the world with the Spanish Flu.


50-100 million more dead on top of the deaths of WW 1.


smokintoad's picture

The smell of fresh mown grass makes me think of phosgene.  How sick is that?

newdoobie's picture

Nerve gas smells like fresh mown hay, If I remember my chem warfare training. Phosgene is usually hydrochloric and hydrofloric acid. Burn some refrigerant and you'll get exposed.

darteaus's picture

Hmmm. I wonder where those guys got those extra helmets?