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The Riskiest Housing Markets In America
As homeownership rates tumble, perhaps it is not just the stagnation of income or piling up of 'other debts' disabling any organic buying frenzy; perhaps, as Bloomberg breaks down, it is the realization that real-estate is nothing less than another boom-bust roller-coaster ride. ??When so much wealth is tied up in one asset, the risk -- or stability -- of a local market can mean a lot to a homeowner and Bloomberg has quantified the 'riskiest' (and most stable) home markets in America... not Vegas, not Phoenix, and not LA...
And the stablest real estate markets?
5. Raleigh, North Carolina
Risk of loss: 9%
Worst year: -5% (July 1981 - June 1982)
4. Nashville, Tennessee
Risk of loss: 9%
Worst year: -4% (July 2010 - June 2011)
3. Louisville-Jefferson County, Kentucky
Risk of loss: 3%
Worst year: -3% (April 1981 - March 1982)
2. Pittsburgh
Risk of loss: 0%
Worst year: -7% (July 1980 - June 1981)
1. Buffalo, New York
Risk of loss: 0%
Worst year: -4% (July 1994 - June 1995)
Methodology: For each of the 50 largest housing markets, Zillow.com analyzed average home prices over 117 rolling five-year periods since 1979, as far back as reliable data go. The “risk of loss” is the percentage of those periods that created negative returns for homeowners. In the case of ties between markets, those with the bigger drop in their worst years were ranked as riskier.
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Problem with housing market is we have too many people without skin in the game. this is going to be real ugly when it bursts. They are still selling homes to people with 0 down
Orange County Ca safe housing market as more people flock to So. CA. No more highways or mass transit will ever be built in this area so land near job center will continue to increase. As Traffic and commute times increase, housing prices near jobs increase.
brave new world commin right up
Ahhhh,
The BROKE state that will spend $50 million making the Golden Gate Bridge "suicide proof", as if ANYTHING can prevent serious suicide attempts !!!!
Anyone who wants to commit suicide should be allowed to.
The same brain fart, that allows that, could present as the next serial shooter.
"Orange County Ca safe housing market as more people flock to So. CA."
Until the next big earthquake occurs...
Your analysis is spot on except for the fact that the employment centers are shrinking, albeit slowly, due to businesses that are relocating out of state. Let's not forget that CA is one of (if not) the least friendly states to run a business.
Skin in the game? I wish I hadn't had skin in the game some years ago.
As it was, I lost my 25% of "skin" when the Florida market tanked by 45%.
Talk to me about "skin". I dare you.
So buy up every house in Buffalo and Pittsburgh , risk-free ??
I think they confused "risk" with "reward".
I suspect taht Buffalo is 'stable' because NOTHING ever sells in Buffalo. Economy is in the crapper - no jobs, no demand, no sales. You can't get more 'stable' than total inertia and inactivity.
Only thing worth buying in Buffalo is Nick Tahou's Garbage Plate.......
when i was in mortgage business we used to say "hey, you have perfect credit, you've never paid anyone!"
Zillow now there's a stock
I'd venture that waterfront condos in Miami are the riskiest....
I see what you did there !!!
http://dailycaller.com/2014/06/30/noaa-quietly-reinstates-july-1936-as-t...
We can fix that Flak, NOAA decided that 1936 was the hottest year after all, I guess Miami is back on the menu so is Al Gores beach home in CA, right.. right..
Uh, Oh I checked NOAA is not peer reviewed, never mind, ha
If Anthony Watts told you that Santa Claus existed, you would believe him.
All they did was reanalyse some data and conclude that July 1936 was the hottest month, not year...
By all of 0.03 degress....
And that changes jackshit in the big picture...
And, of course, it was only warmest in the US of A. 1936 did not include Alaska as a state. Not sure about 2012. So, bit deal. Local weather, not climate. Look out the window. OMG it is cool and rainy in July. Must be a new ice age!
Craig
Are you truly that dumb of a hedgetard? Do you understand what "Contiguous" means?
BTW, here are the warmest 12 month periods for USA....
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2012/jul/warmest_12mont...
No hint of 1936...
NOAA, disagree with them not me they made the change flaktard...
Oh, I would say that NOAA and I are on the same page...
You, on the other hand...
Solar cycles don't care what you or NOAA think. One day it will be hotter than ever, another day it will be cooler than ever. Messing with the ionosphere is arguably the reason for extremes in either direction. Global whatever'ing is a waste of brainwaves. Life adapts. It makes no difference.
Blaming HAARP is the quintessential expression of Hedgetardery...
Can we please stop feeding this dipshit global warming troll? I'm getting sick of having to scroll past all this wasted space.
I don't mean to cause a problem here, but where do the summers of, say, 2,000 B.C. to 2000 A.D. fit into this chart? I'm wondering because I know there was an ice age where glaciers came down to Long Island at one point. I also know that there are many thousands of animals encased in the ice further north that had lived in moderate climes. So, are you 100% sure we'll never have another ice age on earth? Also, what if I'd prefer a warmer earth? Maybe, I'd like to farm in Canada in November.
I'm confused. Who is really smart enough to fix this? How can we give tens of billions of dollars to people who have no known way to fix anything without the guarantee that they won't make other things worse?
If someone is sure they know what's wrong and are positive of how we can fix it, sure, let's let them fuck with the world environment and do whatever they think might work.
In the mean time, let's shut down pipelines, close coal mines and put 100,000s of people out of work in the U.S., just so they can mine in every other country without our competition.
And, let's not build Thorium reactors. Finally, let's not ask the Navy if they can reproduce the reactors they have in their submarines that seem to last, well, kinda, a long time. I'd hate to have whatever is in every one of our nuclear subs on the outskirts of town powering my village. They sure seem safe for the 100 or so sailors on-board thee things 365 days/year for the past 50+ years. What's up?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/29/antarctica-sets-new-record-for-sea...
Oh noes flaktard, more ice, we needz more taxes flaktard...
Explain for us all what exactly that means?
Be sure to mention this data
http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Southern_Ocean_Temp2.gif
from
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Zhang_Antarctic_20-11-2515.pdf
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/06/04/1405184111.full.pdf+html?sid=5859c342-ec49-4de6-a82a-9b2c2c826b3e
Volcano activity under the Antarctic ice. Complex, more to consider than what we "know for sure".
Read closely, responsible for ~5% what is observed...
Why so much climate change denial on the ZH message boards?
Climate change is largely irrelevant, we will suck all the fossil fuels out of the earth as quickly as we can and burn them regardless of what the politicians claim they want to see, so in sense climate change dinialists are actually right, it is a plot to get more tax revenue.
They might also be wrong about the truth of climate change, and if the predictions are true will threaten many things amongst them farming yields and global food production.
I am not a climate scientist, but from a layman's persepcetive three things seem clear:
1. We are running low on natural resources - especially energy from fossil fuels
2. We are f##king up our environment in a miarid of ways, plundering our future for the sake of fiat paper, reducing the planet's carrying capacity. The predictions of the Club of Rome seem to be spot on.
3. The climate is changing, the speed of which has been linked to emissions of gases and reduction of forest cover, although the climate is way more complex than we can model, so there is a lack of conclusive detail.
When you take these three together the obvious conculsion is that as a planet, we need to reduce the amount of resources we use, with a special emphasis on energy. The USA was the sole superpower between 1990 - 2010 and was in a position to lead, which would have ensured beneficial terms, but instead protected vested interests (0.01%) not the overall population of the USA.
The rest of the population were fed missimformation, including that climate change was all a government plot, the reverse of reality, (although government has used CC to justify certain things).
The message has been "don't wory about anything, just get into more debt and consume more of what you don't need"
In terms of policy objectives we really should be preparing for a world with less resources, which would mean:
1. the dominance of private car use for transport to serve low density suburbs makes no sense and needs to be fixed
2. overall encourage lower per-capita consumption of all goods
3. Population reduction
The ironic thing is that we will soon get all three
L.A. might not be at the top, but California accounts for 30% of the total!!!
Add to that the risk that LA could slip into the sea at any time and is patrolled by gangs of trigger-happy cops.
http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/union-budget-2014-govt-may-cut-imp...
I'm stunned Phoenix and Vegas aren't higher, and then looked at the methodology.
In short, I can speak to the Phoenix market, and when it imploded the banks were deliberately witholding inventory and gaming the reported sales prices with off-record deals so as to not impact the value of the inventory they held with actual price discovery. So the methodology of this is using pricing that's been manipulated higher (like every other market) in determining the "low" price for the volatility computation.
In a nutshell, the data is crap and so is the conclusion and the most volatile markets are probably some in the middle rather than those listed due to manipulation.
The data is beyond crap. Take Buffalo NY. The worst YOY decline was 4%. Whoop-de-fucking doo. If you are ok with losing 3-4% a year for 20-30 years until the property is worth virtually (or in some cases literally) nothing, then sure, stability is great. If on the other hand you can handle prices going UP once in a while as well as down, best look somewhere else.
I live in Buffalo, New York. We have one the highest poverty rates in the country, one of the oldest populations, the most segregated, and we stay afloat simply because of all the cross border shoppers and medical trips by all the Canadians.
You forgot to mention the wings!
Don't forget beef on weck!! Tasty.
The beef on weck has long disappeared.
Buffalo is now the champion of Friday Fish Fry dinners. Buffalo flies in more fish for our Friday Fish Fry dinners than any other US city.
You guys are like, so pre-Vatican II. Rock-on you Latin Catholics - eat your Friday fish. Who cares if it is Lent or not! Get that fish before Fukishima get it.
However, I think my family and friends in Rochester could keep up wth your Friday Fish Fry, any day of the week. (sorry, couldn't resist.)
The one aspect about Buffalo that I loved, but now has disappeared, were the neighborhood taverns. The corner 'gin mill' was the poor man's country club.
Buffalo has so many pizza and chicken wing restaurants littering our neighborhoods that it looks like a teenager with severe acne.
Buffalo is like a formerly giant, but no deflated fart cushion. It deflated about 3% per year for the last 30 or 40 years, but aside from little tiny farts, there's much air left to squeeze out of it, no matter how hard you try.
It seems like values have regressed to the value of farm land, with the houses erected on each lot being 90% economically depreciated.
Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix and other cities headed for imminent water supply collapse; wave of drought refugees now inevitable
Sensationalist nonsense. Most of Phoenix's water for the next two years is sitting above ground in the reservoir system. We survived 12 years of drought in the late 90's and early 00's. I think we will be fine.
Yeah, it's primarily the Ag/CAP water that'd be at risk due to the Colorado running dry.
Not to mention most of northern/northeastern AZ is sitting on top of a massive aquifer that stretches from NM to OR. A pipeline would be a hassle but doable.
For all its faults the Arizona government really isn't that bad at water management, especially compared to California.
As I point out below, there are solutions that aren't as ridiculous as piping in water (that will never run out /s) with a pipeline.
http://www.harvestingrainwater.com/ specifically for the AZ/NM area.
Howard Finnel, PA Yeoman, David Holmgren, Bill Mollison, Geoff Lawton, Brad Landcaster, Sepp holtzer, and too many others I can't remember have solved (not are working on, have solved) these problems - it seems there is no will, political or otherwise, to implement solutions.
I suspect it is because "we" can't see beyond the end of our noses'/next election cycle.
one and a quarter inch of rain so far this year in phoenix (all in March).... you had better catch every last fucking drop!
Real late on this, but have to address it.
You "need" about 4" per year to restart a desert. Once you set up the system, you begin recharging the aquafirs (albeit slowly).
Droughts occur about ever 10-20 years (differnt areas different cycles) so if you caught all the rain during a good decade, you'd be able to tap your groundwater during the droughts for an emergency while still growing your underground reserves.
Your angle is typical NOW OR NEVER thinking. We will never get anywhere unless we learn to see beyond our noses. Swales today do not solve the problem today; Swales today do solve the problem within a few years and prevent subsequent problems from reoccurring. I think this used to be called "investing in infrastructure".
Please let it be that you are one of the ones that dries up and shrivels away...
BTW, Las Vegas is scraping the bottom the lake so to speak
http://graphs.water-data.com/lakemead/
Yeah, you guy are 100% good. There won't be a water problem in Phoenix. C'mon, what fucking idiot thinks that Phoenix will dry up? Like it's in the middle of an arid, desert-like environment. That's like saying Ethiopia and Las Vegas have a lot in common. That's just stoopit.
By the way, any chance the two years of water is the sum total of above-ground pool water? If so, you guys might want to start covering them up in the noon-day-sun. But, don't forget to get the lawn sprinklers going before you head out to work this morning.
Hmm. Phoenix, drought, water shortage looming. No. No way.
I got some Marcellus ground water you can buy...cheap!
Good thing Howard Finnel figured out how to use on-contour furrows to mitigate the Dustbowl - nearly 100 years ago.
Good thing P.A. Yeoman furthered the idea of on-contour plowing as well as developed the Yeoman's plow. He restored "dead" land to green pasture and black soil in ~3 years with his Keyline Plan.
http://vimeo.com/13323213
Later Holmgren and Mollison expanded on the ideas developed in those early years to come up with a more complete way of looking at land design - Permaculture.
Today there are projects to regreen the deserts all over the world head up by people like Geoff Lawton, Brad Landcaster, and Alan Savory to name a few.
China has been activly regreening its deserts for a few years now (development started in the 90s) and have converted several thousand sq kilometers so far. They are pushing ahead, "creating" new land, and people/industry is settling there already.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBLZmwlPa8A (just 1 of several projects)
Something as simple as a properly placed ditch/swale is all the is required for rehabilitation of many of the world's arid regions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFeylOa_S4c
Anyway, I just get tired of hearing how the world is going to end, when there are ample solutions to most, if not all, of our actual problems.
Even energy isn't a big deal if we look into methane harvesting from our forests on a sustainable time-scale (about every 8 years per harvest). You can see this in action in Jean Pain's book: A New Kind of Garden.
nice recap.
The safest market must be in the $25M condo market in New York. Crime always pays.
The price of my house has shot up to $210K from $178K in the Dallas area and most houses were sold within 1 month. Extremely fast going on here!
Now all you have to do to cash out is sell at $210K and buy the one next door for $178K! Profit!
(...said the agent, the broker, and the banker.)
I question their analysis. Dallas Fort Worth has had major population growth relative to most other areas, and never had the severity of price declines of other areas. Price increases should be relative to supply. I don't think LA is seeing anything close to the growth of Dallas but they have them ranked equally. Whats up with that?
Magnix; you were downarrowed by an idiot.
People forget how unnatural price moves like that are in RRE. Unreal.
They forget quick.
We all recognize the inductive lunacy of this approach right?
If you were to apply this methodology to Detroit, housing prices would never have had a risk of loss there until they suddenly did.
where is it risky? where you can't find a job to replace the one you've lost and make the same pay.
When I hear the words "Zillow" and "Methodology" together, I cry "Bullshit".
I anagrammed "zillow math", these two were the most interesting:
Matzoh Will
Hot Mall Wiz
"Zillow methodology" was too hard on wordsmith.org's servers.
Zillow is, to me, a quasi-criminal organization for a variety of reasons, but they need to keep themselves in the news and in as many publications as possible so they look legit. They'll keep publishing numbers, but they don't have anyone with enough of a brain working there to make them any more realistic than any other model. Real estate is ultra-local and there are so many factors influencing the future of an area that it makes their numbers nonsensical.
Who would have guessed 15 years ago that every hipster would want to live near Park Slope or Williamsburg in Brooklyn and that the NJ Nets would move across from the Flatbush Avenue Station? Well, it's caused prices to double and double again. What about the migration of the Hasidim within the same county? Well, they cause prices explode once they include new areas into their 'eruvs', which are neighborhood in which they can do things on Saturday that you cannot do if you live outside but can do on the inside - like pushing baby strollers.
In reality, they couldn't give a damn if any of their predictions are correct, only that they can get two or more Realtors in every zip code in America to bid for positioning on their sites. They are gangsters shaking down the real estate agents of the world, just like Trulia, Realtor.com and many other sites. The Supreme Court required that they be given access to all MLS sites in the US. However, while agents and brokers share their listings among peers there, these companies interlope, take all the data, get higher ranked web sites, and basically sell agents back their own listings.
Think about it - this is why Google got out of any and all real estate. They realized they could make 10X to 100X the money by allowing all the real estate interlopers and real estate brokers to bid up the cost of advertising for everything, driving returns to below zero, with rare exceptions.
In the end, unfortunately, the consumer isn't even served well by these companies, because Zillow still throws you into the arms of your typical local real estate agent. However, now more than ever they will be charging you a full commission because they have to recoup the fees paid to all of these other companies.
The founder of RE/MAX was ahead of his time and recognized this about a decade ago. He decided to put all listings online in every region in which they had an office. However, he couldn't keep up with the Zillows of the world, even with a multi-billion dollar head start and an army of over 100,000 real estate agents.
The sad part is: the Internet should have created a situation whereby Realtors had diminished influence and power in communities and where commission could have been greatly reduced by web-savvy Americans. Instead, buyers and sellers are each giving up a very significant chunk of the value of a piece of real estate every time a brokerage fee is paid.
FUCK ZILLOW - INTERLOPING SCUM! HERE'S YOUR ONLY WAY OUT:
1) AGENTS - WAKE UP! FOR EACH AGENT PAYING FOR A 'ZIP CODE', YOU ARE MAKING THEM STRONGER AND WEAKENING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY. The price will only go up every month if you are successful and only you will go bankrupt if you are not. That's no partnership. Imagine, you got your license, paid for your office, maybe bought a building in town or pay rent to a landlord - and now you have to rent a fucking zip code from Zillow each month. That's fucking nuts. If brokers and agents weren't so fucking greedy for short term earnings, they collectively should have told Zillow to go take a flying fuck.
2) LEARN HOW TO CODE AND BEAT THEM AT THEIR OWN GAME.
3) MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICES - CREATE A MULTI-TIERED PRICING STRUCTURE - CHARGE FOR EACH FILE ACCESSED AND FOR EVERY LISTING THAT IS RE-ADVERTISED. THIS WOULD RE-LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD
4) Agents - Share listings in your community - without loading them on MLS - then sue the shit out of Zillow or any other company that publishes your work without permission.
5) Instead of all brokers getting priced out of the industry and having to kneel to the Zillows and Trulias, work together. Start new forms of MLS that can keep out these 10,000 pound gorillas that don't benefit society or the industry - only themselves.
6) If you are a broker or agent - you better learn to specialize and have a target market - or you are going DOWN.
7) Never forget -- capitalism works, but it's a bitch when it creatively destroys your industry.
Always find a niche.
i hate brokers who charge up to 10% comission! You are a dinosaurio Sir.
Realestate will be UBER-ized. I can't wait.
Go REDfin
As long as they hand out zero down houses and EZ Credit, this craziness will continue. All Partees come to an end and the RE market will look real Fugly.
All that is important is to maintain a false sense of confidence. Reality would suck really badly right now.
I don't think I've seen this level of crapola for data crunching before. Dallas Fort Worth? This has been one of the stablist markets in the country for decades. Zillow??? Did they unionize?
Raleigh eh? Don't make me laugh as the snake oil salesman are working their magic here. House flipping seminars are at full speed ahead in these parts. Apartment buildings are being tossed up like pizza dough while actual house construction is as slow as it is everywhere else.
Nope, no bubbles here.
You got that right bubba! I'm in the apartment biz. Homeownership IS actually is a dream for 18-37 year olds, and beyond. People are getting it. There's a residual burning sensation from the last bust. A home you live in isn't an investment. One more lie perpetrated on the sheeple.
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/6/30/ubs-the-secret-reason-the-fed-is-tolerating-bubbles.html
The reason it's called a American dream because that's exactly what it is! Dream on.
Didn't watch this segment. If memory serves me right, didn't the GOP threaten impeachment?
Bad methodology, meaningless results.
What is "organic" buying?
I want everyone in San Francisco to lose their property ownership.
That is what the Socialists want. You must be a fucking socialist scumbag. Look in the mirror asshole.
I want everyone who owns property to be able to keep their property. They earned it and it belongs to them.
The Government taxes makes it certain that Government will ultimately retain the title upon a Property Tax Default. That is why Government needs to be banished.
Anarchy is the best type of rule...none. Let Freedom and Liberty reign!!!