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Russia Reveals "Plan B": Gazprom Says Gas Transit Via Ukraine May Be Stopped Completely
A few days ago, when we wrote our "explainer" on the need for Russia to have an alternative pathway for its gas, one which bypasses Ukraine entirely and as the current "South Stream" framework is set up, crosses the Black Sea and enters Bulgaria before passing Serbia and Hungary on the way to the Central European energy hub located in Baumgarten, Austria, we said that "one short month after Putin concluded the Holy Grail deal with Beijing, he not only managed to formalize his conquest of Europe's energy needs with yet another pipeline, one which completely bypasses Ukraine (for numerous reasons but mostly one: call it a Plan B), but scored a massive political victory by creating a fissure in the heart of the Eurozone, after Austria openly defied its European peers and sided with Putin."
Today we find just what said Plan B is.
As Itar-Tass reports, citing Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, "Russia’s gas giant Gazprom does not rule out gas transit via Ukraine may be stopped completely."
"What happened once is a tendency, nothing happens incidentally. In 2009, gas supplies were stopped completely — so, we know precedents,” Miller told a briefing on Friday.
Clearly, this is bad news for Ukraine: Gazprom not interested in participation in Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS), “train has departed”, CEO said.
“The train has already departed. It seems it departed yesterday,” Miller said. “It belongs to no one. The GTS has no owner,” he said. “The GTS of Ukraine does not belong to Naftogaz but to the Ukrainian government. Before discussing things with someone regarding modernization and cooperation, it should appear on the balance sheet of this or that economic entity.”
“Property and legal issues should be resolved first,” Miller said.
In fact, the civil war torn country may soon lose all leverage it had with both Europe and Russia as a transit hub for natural gas, which also means that it is quite likely that Ukraine is about to be abandoned by its western allies who will no longer have any practical use for it.
The Gazprom chief added that “a dozen Ukrainian laws need to be changed to be able to do something with the GTS.”
Confirming that Ukraine's leverage at least with Russia is now effectively zero, Gazprom's CEO also said that “As for the continuation of negotiations with Ukraine, today there is no subject for talks. First, they must repay their debts."
“The gas price for Ukraine is fair - this price is fixed in the contract,” he stressed.
There have been no requests on the part of Ukraine’s national oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy on a change of the transit deal with Russia, Alexei Miller said. Miller told journalists that it would be bad news if such requests had been received.
At least we now know what the Ukraine endgame will look like: as Russian transit through the country is completely cut off, the nation will lose all strategic importance first to Russia and then to Europe, which is still over-reliant on Russian gas (see map below), but which will increasingly turn its attention to the countries which the South Stream passes through.
And speaking of South Stream countries, there is increasing speculation that the main reason why none other than the poorest EU member country, Bulgaria, just suffered its worst bank run in 17 years, and one which has paved the way to early elections, is precisely that: to provide Europe with a government which will be more focused on Brussels' interests, instead of the current socialist regime, whose allegiance to the Kremlin is said to take precedence.
After all, now that Ukraine is yesterday's news, pay close attention to how Europe treats all the South Stream countries, starting with Bulgaria, and going through Serbia (read "Serbia could go bankrupt within a year and end up “in the position of Greece”, the country’s new prime minister has warned"), Hungary and of course, Austria.
Finally, and perhaps most notably, is last week's announcement by Gazprom CEO Miller that Gazprom has good chance, and is interested in discussing buying a stake in the Baumgarten gas hub (see more on why Austria is suddenly so important to both Russia and Europe here).
As Bloomberg reported previously, citing Miller, "The talks we had about South Stream also were a catalyst for the continuation of our talks about participating in the gas hub. We are interested and I think we can discuss a specific percentage of participation." The Russian gas producer and exporter discussed with OMV participating in gas trading in Baumgarten. Miller also added that work on South Stream link to Europe going on schedule, first deliveries to Bulgaria, Serbia, Turkey; capacity to reach 63bcm by end 2017.
In other words, as Europe and the US remains still focused on Ukraine, the one place which now matters most for Europe's energy future is Austria: a country where Gazprom, and Putin of course, are quietly sowing the seeds of Russia's energy dominance tomorrow. As for the feeder countries, especially Bulgaria, pay close attention as the US "foreign service" does all it can to destabilize the local government and financial system as a last ditch attempt to wrest Russia's trump card out of its hand. Something tells us Putin will hardly let it go easily.
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Ukraine has ever been a soverign nation.
Now is a failed state.
From outside is ultimate control over Ukraine's "Red" Mafiya
Pre civilized behavior
Really? Russia dropping tanks and starting shit isn't using force and coercion to achieve a desired outcome? Holy fuck, thy must be 3D printing retards today too..
With Bulgaria 100% dependent on Russian gas, I don't think the gremlins that did their work in Ukraine are going to have any leverage in Bulgaria.
Even the most pro Western govt. isn't going to commit suicide over IMF treats being dangled from a stick.
Some (wannabe)Western countries will soon experience what it means to be on the wrong-side of the New Iron Curtain
Slovakia becomes the feeder for Ukraine instead of the other way around. Problem is Ukraine is a lousy customer. They pay no bills and have squandered their resources.
Imagine how bad it would be if they weren't a breadbasket?
US/UK lost an important battle. The next President of the EU Commission is not a man of US/UK like the old one Barroso was. Cameron was trying everything but he lost.
Junckers is chosen by the EU Parliament and has in addition the full backing of the EUs heads of states. Junckers biggest interest is, that the economy of the EU especially Euroland is humming. That means he is going to secure that EU is receiving the gas it needs from Russia via the new South Stream pipeline. Gas from other sources would be far to expensive and way to unstable as far as supply is concerned, The South Stream pipeline is leaving Russia and next stop is the EU.
Soon Italy is taking over the EU Presidency. This is also a very important step for further integration towards a real USE.
On 1 July 2014, Italy will take over the six month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. This briefing note gives a preliminary overview of the likely priorities of the Italian Presidency. The official work programme is currently being finalised by the Government and should be published at the beginning of June. Italy as an engine of European integrationhttp://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/italian-pm-vows-push-...
So Junckers and the Italians do work hand in hand and the rest of Europe (except UK of course) is fully backing their course.I'm not sure if the position of European Commission's prez is that important to warrant this grandstanding on Cameron's side. most British politics observers seem to think that it was more to shore up his own domestic position vs what he calls the "swiwel-eyed loons" of UKIP
but yes, Barroso was very strongly both Anglo-phile and US-friendly - which is hilarious if you think what scorn was heaped on him in the UK press. Juncker is no way that strongly an Atlanticist. and the two biggest MEP groups got what they wanted (which, in their view, includes more democracy and accountability in the EU), with the backing of the whole EU Council strike the UK and Hungary
in the context of this article (and South Stream): Italy was always a proponent of South Stream, together with Austria. and many other eurozoners found that opposition to it was for political reasons residing in Ukraine in particular and the eastward expansion of the EU in general, championed by the UK (and the US)
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/kjetil-tungland-tap-trans-adriactic-pipe...
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South Stream development does not interfere with our plans at all. Recently Gazprom announced their decision to exclude the southern leg option of the South Stream, which originally passed through Greece to southern Italy, similarly to our route. Gazprom representatives explained they are doing this because of TAP, as we already plan to bring gas to this area. So, in this sense we are not competing and there is no negative influence on our development plans from South Stream.
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Italy was never a Russian gas market to begin with.
Azerbaijani gas (which transists through Georgia) is competing against North African gas imports. It a tactical retreat victory since it allows for diversification of Western Europe gas imports against dominance by the Muslims. Russians know Albania isn't worth the headache since you can bet Qatar will use it's influence to block TAP or destabilize the region to costing whoever more money and effort than the project is worth in the first place. Albania is ultimately the EU's problem to deal with not Russia's and Russians know it. It is a waste of time and resources and infrastructure for them since the Russian sphere of influence doesn't expand that far anymore since the Iron Curtain has fallen.
Speaking of Qatar and their own dominance through proxies since Qatar's imports are primarily LNG of transit routes through North Africa one just needs to look at the gas routes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Natural_gas_pipelines_in_Algeria
We come up from Nigeria through the Medgaz then it splits into 2 directions in Algeria
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/africa/11138-algeria-refuses-to-l...
The eastern routes that go into Italy go through
Libya (Muslim Brotherhood via arab spring)
Tunisia (Muslim Brotherhood via arab spring)
The Western Routes into Spain
Algeria (Muslim Brotherhood friendly and long term presence even prior to arab spring)
Morocco (government almost overthrown by arab spring and muslim brotherhood. not as important since Algeria has the major resources and was already Muslim Brotherhood friendly).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring
That is what the South Stream southern corridor project would have been competing against. Russia has basically stuck it to the EU and Azerbaijan and in turn indirectly Georgia by dropping the project and forcing a confrontation between the EU and Qatar over TAP with the battlefields likely in Albania and Turkey. If the Europeans have any fucking brains they will build in a secondary bypassing around Albania through Greece to the Adriatic to try to mitigate some of the problems.
They've also stuck it to Great Britain which has to diversify away from Qatari gas.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/uk-ukraine-crisis-energy-britai...
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=uk
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10678417/UK-energ...
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/gas-statistics
very informative links!
The queen curtsies before the pope. UK will do as it is told and continue looting America and pushing it into wars.
Makes you wonder about Europe and their tactics to create this crisis - create a continent wide dependency on Russia nat-gas and stand around and do nothing when it gets taken away.
Russia, Europe - all socialists of the same kind.
Remember, capitalism is an American philosophy - Euro-Russia (preference to socialism/kings and queens) had to follow along without a choice.
If you're referring to the crisis in the Ukraine - you're looking in the wrong direction - that 'crisis' was 100% cooked up in Washington DC, perhaps with a sprinkling of Warsaw seasoning on top. Why were the Poles so keen? Perhaps they can see themselves ending up with a chunk of Western Ukraine when everything plays out. Or perhaps they're just useful idiots.
If you're referring to European dependence on Russian gas as a 'crisis'. That is no crisis unless they shoot the loaded gun they're currently pointing at their own feet.
When it comes to it. Surely not eh?
The actual free market is a human invention.
Capitalism in the US was struck a death blow by Wilson and his Jekyll Island masters via WWI, the 16th amendment, and the federal reserve. It went from Capitalism to Crapitalism with FDR's Fascist regime.
The free market in the US has been an illusion since then.
Looks like Bulgaria is gonna get "Freedom'd".
what about plan F - as in "totally fcked" ?
The strategy seems to be progressing just fine. Russia and China being diligently surrounded with chaotic failed states. Sources of energy, and trans-shipment routes, sequestered by warlords, so the only parties who can access them are nations that can project force anywhere in the world at any given time (Hint--there's only one such nation). And energy supply dynamics are being used to divide and weaken any and all possible rivals to US global supremacy. Both Russia and the EU are dangling from this string, as both are potential US rivals.
It's as if Kissinger, Brzezinski and Wolfowitz were actively runniing US foreign policy, and for the past 50 years.
Obama is still taking cues from Brzezinski and company.
You morons don't see what's REALLY going on, do you? The whole "south stream" crap is NOT to supply gas, but to enrich Putin's buddies who happen to be in oilgas pipeline business.
Do you see that "blue stream" on the map? From Sochi to Turkey? That cost SEVEN TIMES more per km than similar pipelines in Nigeria and SE Asia. That's SEVEN TIMES more! Guess where the 6/7th of the price went? The russian people gotten robbed once, and they will get robbed once more, while feeling mighty proud how they left "fascist regime" freezing in the winter.
And even if this southstream is built, do you have any idea how long it will take for the Russkies to build it by themselves? Let me tell you: from decades to forever!
Do you know how fast they built the Nord Stream?...you have no idea what you are talking about.
useless talkings
Dear ghod, you are a dumbass.
Do you think the EU won't participate in a venture designed to ship them gas? This ain't just Russian engineering. And if the Russians are so incompetant, then how the fuck are Americans getting into the International Space Station? Do they just close their eyes and teleport themselves from their NASA offices?
Off to pay taxes so I'll just leave this here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/29/antarctica-sets-new-record-for-sea...
If anyone runs into Flak, feel free to let her know we found her hockey stick graph, turns out it is Antarctic sea ice...
Unfortunately there is a north pole also.
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Thawing_Permafrost_The_speed_of_coasta...
The results are based on 4.5 million measurements made by a laser instrument mounted on NASA’s now defunct ICESat satellite between 2003 and 2008, which mapped the thickness of most floating ice shelves around Antarctica. The results:
“There has been lots of talk lately about Antarctica and whether or not the continent’s giant ice sheet is melting. One new paper 1, which states there’s less surface melting recently than in past years, has been cited as “proof” that there’s no global warming. Other evidence that the amount of sea ice around Antarctica seems to be increasing slightly 2-4 is being used in the same way. But both of these data points are misleading. Gravity data collected from space using NASA’s Grace satellite show that Antarctica has been losing more than a hundred cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice each year since 2002. The latest data reveal that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, too. How is it possible for surface melting to decrease, but for the continent to lose mass anyway? The answer boils down to the fact that ice can flow without melting. “
But if a topic you are interested in: try this
https://dublinsmickdotcom.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/thawing-permafrost-th...
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/arctic-ice-area-highest-in...
Your right there is an Arctic, so smart.. Ohh, look another record amount of ice.. Don't you worry Mick, some more taxes will fix it right up..
http://www.thegwpf.org/hidden-volcanoes-under-the-ice-may-be-melting-ant...
Hey, maybe we could tax volcano's... Cutting edge science/politics marriage..
Dontch know? Volcanos are caused by Fracking in the US.
Stop Anthropogenic Plate Tectonics!
There are an amazing number of well-informed climate scientists in here today!
http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=27414
Russia will resort to “protective measures” if EU’s deep and comprehensive free trade agreements (DCFTA) with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine negatively affect on free trade regime within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said on June 25.
Russian news agencies reported quoting Lavrov that Moscow is not only ready, but also calls for consultations to clarify potential effects of these treaties on Russia’s trade with the countries concerned.
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http://eeas.europa.eu/top_stories/2014/270614_association_agreement_en.htm
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Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova took a big step toward closer ties with the EU as they signed Association Agreements with the EU on 27 June. This is a symbolic moment for all three countries.
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http://voiceofrussia.com/uk/news/2014_06_27/Ukraine-Georgia-Moldova-to-s...
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Slovakia just is collateral damage at this point since the Yamal II has never been built and may not get built at this point.
http://www.rferl.org/content/moldova-gagauz-referendum-counting/25251251...
An overwhelming majority of voters in a referendum held in the autonomous Moldovan region of Gagauzia have voted for integration with a Russia-led customs union.
The chairwoman of Gagauzia's election commission, Valentina Lisnic, said on February 3 that 98.4 percent of voters chose closer relations with the CIS Customs Union.
In a separate question, 97.2 percent were against closer EU integration.
In addition, 98.9 percent of voters supported Gagauzia's right to declare independence should Moldova lose or surrender its own independence.
Turnout was more than 70 percent in the February 2 vote.
...
And if anyone doesn't think Gaguzia isn't economically important. Here is a 108 page paper on investment opportunities in Gagauzia sponsored by the Soros Foundation and Open Society Institute.
http://www.gagauzia.md/public/files/publicatii/The_Guide____Gagauzia_opp...
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/funderprofile.asp?fndid=5181
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/eurocrisispress/2014/06/13/the-ukraine-crisis-has...
http://www.allmoldova.com/en/moldova-news/1249057822.html
Shutting off gas is going to force the EU to redivert gas from elsewhere to Moldova now that would have otherwise not had to.
But what about the chillrens????
(I don't know if politicians in Eastern European countries play this card as frequently as US politicians do, however if the shoe fits...)
The Plan B, in which "B" stands for the Best ,probably was Putin's plan #1 all along. The Ukie ZioNazi will yap like castrated hyenas, drink their master's piss and die like worthless shit. What a bunch of pathetic imbeciles, run by some retarded child molesters from Washington and Brussels.
and whose piss do you drink DNA? ZioNazi, that's very creative, still blaming everything on the jews I see, can't come up with a more creative excuse to take over a small helpless country? Just take the candy from the baby and be done with it.
Mh just so that everyone is aware, northern europe hardly consume any gas. It seems strange that Sweden would import 100% of their gas from russia when norway is just next door, however it doesnt really matter since its gas consumtion is close to 0 by international standards.
Im sure som campers and BBQers would get a bit dissapointed if they were left without gas tho.
The "South Stream" scales out to be 450 miles. Once pipe and barge are ready underwater pipe typically goes in at about a mile a day or more.
They have shale all over in europe/ england but property rights are so fuked up that nobody wants to drill.
Looks to me like they better be getting off their arsses and drilling.....
No more unemployment and can flip Putin the bird....
WTF is the matter with you folks over there...... Just do it.
Looks to me like one guy with 500 kg of PETN can basically flip the switch on Russia.
Sarah, is that you?
"Drill Baby, Drill!"
Posioning the water supply by fracking and poisoning the population is for America not Europe, they still need their slaves.
"...pay close attention as the US "foreign service" does all it can to destabilize the local government and financial system as a last ditch attempt to wrest Russia's trump card out of its hand. Something tells us Putin will hardly let it go easily..."
Please check this out!!
Bank run in Bulgary triggered by Cyberattack posting false information in Youtube, causing Government crisis and elections!!
https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=...
And concerning Austria.
http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=52246&reloadFlag=1
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But last week, that plan collapsed when Azerbaijan chose instead to send its gas into the Trans Adriatic Pipeline consortium. The shareholders of that pipeline are Switzerland’s Axpo (42.5 percent), Norway’s Statoil (42.5 percent), and Germany’s E.ON (15 percent).
Through new pipelines and connectors, Azeri gas will now run through Greece and Albania to Italy, serving primarily Europe’s southern markets. This is a blow for Bulgaria and Hungary: Nabucco gas would have alleviated their heavy dependence on Gazprom, Russia’s powerful state-owned energy company.
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http://www.rferl.org/content/nabucco-west-pipeline-rejection/25028589.html
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Nabucco West and TAP were the only two bidders in the project to transport the Azerbaijani gas.
The Nabucco West route would have taken gas from the Turkish border through Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and into Austria.
TAP would take the gas from the Turkish border through Greece, Albania, and across the Adriatic Sea to Italy.
Either route achieves the aim, backed by Washington, of reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas.
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It is a tiny bit more complicated than that .... The Russians checkmated Nabucco forcing this decision.
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http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Europe/Romania-pulls-plug-on-Nabucco-pip...
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http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/austria-to-offically-join-south-stream-p...
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Turkey is still an extremely important piece of real estate allowing south stream to bypass it and hooking into Austria is the best case scenario for energy security since it bypasses the land routes and instability issues involved.
Before the empires fully collapse another major war is most likely going to revolve around control of Turkey between the Muslims (Caliphate) the Eastern Rome (Orthodox Church, Russia) and Western Rome (Vatican central banking religious temples run by the tribe), here.
Interesting piece.
Once again shows why the middle east is a huge focus. The danger to Europe is a consolidation of perhaps between southern Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon into a unified body which can stand up to the Turkey, Israeli, Kurdish, Saudi axis. The US built a very large base in the Kurdish area of Mosul many years ago and turned it over to Israel. We don't hear much about it now days. You can see the results however with Benny yammering about the freedom he wants for the Kurdistan and the turmoil in Iraq, now that the first shipment of Kurd oil has gone to Israel.
Russian planes that could wipe out ISIS is a huge threat. That is why the big push to threaten the ordinary Sunnis to join in the war or lose their heads and be crucified.
Of course Aaron Russo warned us about all this years ago mentioning the future pipelines through Afghanistan. Of course that project may be on hold now for a bit....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xh7Oa3li7uE
It also no mistake the second TAP pipeline project became the TAPI pipeline diverting Turkmenistan gas to India through Afghanistan into BRICS territory instead of south coupled with Azerbaijan choosing the Trans Adriatic Pipeline over Nabucco which in turn revived the possibility of the Trans Caspian Pipeline along with the fact the east west pipeline is supposed to come online in 2015 that the US wound down the Afghanistan war. It no longer serves the petrodollar's strategic interest any longer. If they want to annoy India over gas imports they can do it from Pakistan under the guise of fighting terrorism aka helping the Pakis deal with their internal troublemakers.
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=TX
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Natural_gas_pipelines_in_Turkmeni...
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/trans-caspian-pipeline-russia-turkmenist...
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/perspectives-of-trans-caspian-project-bu...
Duh, sort of a no brainer.
Waging War Against Russia, One Pipeline at a Time
http://libya360.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/waging-war-against-russia-one-pipeline-at-a-time/
"which also means that it is quite likely that Ukraine is about to be abandoned by its western allies who will no longer have any practical use for it."
I have to interject here.
Don't forget that the Donbass - the epicenter of the war has been "rented" out to Shell and Chevron for 50 years. Reason - Shale gas deposits.
More here in the map:
https://maps.google.com.ua/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=209864008589941260480.0004...