Goldman's Global Leading Indicator Drops In June

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's June Final GLI came in at 3.1% year-over-year, down from the revised 3.3% year-over-year reading in May. Momentum came in at 0.15% month-over-month - flat from last month’s revised reading. Ever optimistic, Goldman views this results, as continuing to locate the global industrial cycle close to the ‘Expansion’ phase but has yet to signal positive acceleration... oh so close... The 3 big drivers of the deterioration were Japan's Inventory/Sales ratio worsened, US Initial Jobless Claims were marginally higher, and as we have been vociferously noting, The Baltic Dry Index continued to come in softer as well.

US data, they argue, has been improving (though we note US Macro surprises at 2-month lows), but improvement has yet to show up in a more convincing way in the broader, global dataset.

Despite all this disappointment, Goldman remains resolute (just like they were on Q1 GDP til they folded... and Q2 GDP)...

Still, we continue to expect the GLI to move into ‘Expansion’, in line with our optimistic outlook for US growth, and we will be watching the GLI closely in the next few months for signs of a more broad-based turn in global activity data.

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DrunkMath's picture

Gimme that Swirl-o-gram baby!

AlaricBalth's picture

ZeroHedge's Global Leading Bullshit Indicator Rises In June

ZH's June Final GLBI came in at 87% year-over-year, up from the revised 84% year-over-year reading in May.

Still, ZH continues to expect the GLBI to move into ‘Expansion’, in line with our optimistic outlook for US economic BS growth, and we will be watching the GLBI closely in the next few months for signs of a more broad-based continuation of global bullshitting activity data.

(You see, we can crank out this crap too.)

LetThemEatRand's picture

Who is Lloyd Blankfein?

AlaricBalth's picture

A humble servant doing Gods work???

Quinvarius's picture

I see an Eagle in his future...

DeadFred's picture

I see flaming pitchforks, but I'm an optimist.

i_call_you_my_base's picture

Everybody lies. The first projection was a lie, the follow up was a lie, and on and on...

Oldwood's picture

Hey, predictions are hard! These guys consider anyone who guesses better than 50% is a fucking genius. Besides, we know they only make predictions to drive the markets. Adjustments must be made in order to not look completely like a manipulating fool.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Goal seeking isn't just for World Cup players anymore.

Gigliola Cinquetti's picture

Boah , we won , and we still have the best beers too 

sbenard's picture

So while Goldman's indicator tells us things are not good, Goldman itself wants us to igore the bad news and keep the bubble growing. Got it!

jack stephan's picture

My pal is a novice , and I'm a glorified novice. He asked me what is so special about Jews. I thought the same thing, Chinese are fascinated, why it's easy infiltrate everything. Anything with pull, shit it's not that hard, silver or lead or your dead.

What else do you want me to say.

orangegeek's picture

Goldman nutsacks market indicator - that sounds reliable.


And look, we're above zero, so we are still expanding.


So everything is fine.

Quinvarius's picture

This house is made of paint.