ISM Manufacturing Drops, Misses By Most Since January

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On the heels of Markit's US PMI missing expectations but rising to its highest since May 2010 (with notable inflation signals and domianted by weakness in small business) despite new export orders tumbling; ISM printed at 55.3, down from May and missing expectations. Only 50% of survey respondent s expect to increase jobs - the lowest number in 2014. New export orders also fell in ISM. Following last month's utter SNAFU, we are not exactly sure whether this is real yet. So far the market reaction is positive to this bad news so we do not expect a revision.

Just in case, here are Bradley Holcomb's "prepared remarks" which last month were mysteriously created without the ISM even once checking what seasonal adjustment factor it had used:

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The June PMI® registered 55.3 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from May's reading of 55.4 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the 13th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 58.9 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the 56.9 percent reading in May, indicating growth in new orders for the 13th consecutive month. The Production Index registered 60 percent, 1 percentage point below the May reading of 61 percent. Employment grew for the 12th consecutive month, registering 52.8 percent, the same level of growth as reported in May. Inventories of raw materials remained at 53 percent, the same reading as reported in both May and April. The price of raw materials grew at a slower rate in June, registering 58 percent, down 2 percentage points from May."

US PMI missed expectations but reached its highest since May 2010.

Notably, medium-sized manufacturers (100- 499 employees) saw the strongest improvement in business conditions during June, while small-sized manufacturers (1-99 employees) recorded the least marked upturn in overall operating conditions.

As Markit notes (on the tumble in new export orders)...

Export performance, however, remains a real disappointment, and trade will likely act as a drag on the economy again in the second quarter. If worries about tighter policy from the Fed start to dampen domestic demand at the same time as exporters are struggling, growth could slow again in the second half of the year

But then ISM hit.

Remember last month's total ISM SNAFU...So let's not hold our breath quite yet.

However, courtesy of last month's ISM embarrassment we now know what the New Orders seasonal adjustment factor is, and since ISM does not report unadjusted number we can back into it: at 57.5, this was the lowest unadjusted New Orders print since January!

The cherrypicked respondents are there merely to add to the propaganda value:

  • "Business volume is increasing at a good pace and consumers appear to be spending more." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "The strength of the automotive industry continues to drive the high demand for steel." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Business still very solid and strong — Class 8 Truck and RV." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Seasonal business remains strong." (Primary Metals)
  • "Another strong month overall." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Outlook is better. General uptick in our company's confidence." (Chemical Products)
  • "Orders are picking up, but pricing has declined in last month. Not the norm for this time of year." (Wood Products)
  • "Conditions are slightly more favorable than last year." (Printing and Related Support Activities)
  • "Business is picking up once again." (Machinery)
  • "Business conditions are stable to improving." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

Today's print (so far)

 

Finally, and of note, the fewest firms since 2013 expect to increase employment and new export orders fell.

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Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:08 | 4913569 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

buy the FUKK outa stokks/sell treasuries!

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:16 | 4913607 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

correction, buy stokks parabolic

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:10 | 4913580 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well, we still need some bartenders for our victory party this evening!

so... your manufacturing and jobs may be down the shitters... but we'll be generous with the tips!

 

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:20 | 4913622 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'll make sure they stir all your drinks with their cocks.

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:26 | 4913634 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I don't drink shots... I only drink beers where the first inch is foam...

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:26 | 4913637 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Don't be bitter.  It's honest work.

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:10 | 4913581 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn, I don't have my DOW 17,000 hat yet....

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:14 | 4913593 Sudden Debt
Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:24 | 4913631 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

It must be tour de France time because that looks like a Eddie Merkx replica hat celebrating the last time a Belgian won anything on the world sporting stage.

Sorry to the likeable Kim Clijsters who I have to overlook in order to make this comment.

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:32 | 4913650 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

????

EX CUSE ME???

We have 25 cycling world champions!!

1928 Georges Ronsse
1929 Georges Ronsse
1934 Karel Kaers
1935 Jean Aerts
1937 Eloi Meulenberg
1938 Marcel Kint
1948 Briek Schotte
1949 Rik Van Steenbergen
1950 Briek Schotte
1955 Stan Ockers
1956 Rik Van Steenbergen
1957 Rik Van Steenbergen
1960 Rik Van looy
1961 Rik Van looy
1963 Benoni Beheyt
1967 Eddy Merckx
1970 Jean-Pierre Monseré
1971 Eddy Merckx
1974 Eddy Merckx
1976 Freddy Maertens
1981 Freddy Maertens
1984 Claude Criquielion
1990 Rudy Dhaenens
1996 Johan Museeuw
2005 Tom Boonen

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:38 | 4913669 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I admit that is a pretty decent sized list :)

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:26 | 4913633 Dr. Engali
Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:27 | 4913638 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

looks a lot like a footlocker employees hat...

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:13 | 4913588 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

reporting on these numbers in a completely different spin on CNBS as you may have guessed...

anyway, i must say that they r attempting to construct a serious wall of resistance on Silver at the $21.10 mark and have been for the last 2 weeks... this chart gives a better picture of how everytime that mark is breached they throw naked short sell positions at it...check the red candles to the downside...a complete fucking "obvious" joke...

http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:20 | 4913623 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-short-squeeze-here-comes-50-...

Take a trip down memory lane.  Let us hope we see the same article later this year...

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:45 | 4913700 Harry Dong
Harry Dong's picture

That is a good article and still valid...just waiting out the games now.
I'm still looking for a collapse in silver price to 15 before the next bull run. this small run up isn't a surprise...but if it keeps going to 25 then I'll be miffed.
Even so, it's always a good time to buy ag.

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:15 | 4913602 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

And GM claims to have broken sales records?  Haha

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:16 | 4913603 replaceme
replaceme's picture

I just want to know how I can get me some of that internet money... You never walk away from a heater, play this right til the very end. 

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:15 | 4913605 TabakLover
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Bizarro world.

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:18 | 4913617 madbraz
madbraz's picture

PMI, ISM...all rigged, all lined-up for their owner's algos.  what a sham

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:23 | 4913628 kito
kito's picture

wait so when it goes down its not rigged, but when it goes up it is rigged? im not clear on that. please explain.

i guess the negative 2% gdp in q1 was not rigged, but when it prints at 2% in q2 it will be rigged?  do i have your logic correct?

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:30 | 4913642 madbraz
madbraz's picture

ism, pmi = surveys

 

gdp = actual data

 

gdp is rigged too, what is not mentioned is that it was fudged at Q4 2013 and Q1 is simply an adjustment to account for that.  you can fudge, rig actual numbers, but you get in trouble after a while if the real data doesn't go with it in subsequent quarters.

 

who are you, a CNBC shill?  go watch them, that's where you belong if you believe this retard BS

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 11:52 | 4913991 kito
kito's picture

dont talk out of your ass. prove it. back up what you are saying. give me definitive proof that the ism is rigged. dont just act like tylers monkey.

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:40 | 4913677 intric8
intric8's picture

@kito: are you kidding? Dont you know that down is the new good? That -2% gdp print was a gift. Had it met expectations, the market would have tanked 5%.

Everything is obfuscated these day from economic indicators to the quack economists interpretations of those numbers. Yellen lies through her teeth and you find it hard to believe they wont fix data?

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:41 | 4913686 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

kito who said negative 2% GDP was not rigged? real number is more like -6%- -8%. When if it prints +2% it will be more like -2 - -4 %%


Tue, 07/01/2014 - 11:15 | 4913817 kito
kito's picture

oh and thats because you ran the numbers? are you a sort of john williams of shadowstats now?

 

please, if it was actually -6 to -8, please divulge your actual mathematical formula that led to such a revelation. if not then STFU. amateurs on here always preaching why numbers are rigged because they say so. not an ounce of proof, other than michael snynders 50 ways to hide under a rock. to demonstrate why numbers are always rigged when it works against their theories...

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:18 | 4913619 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Glad I could do my small part in helping this happen.

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:21 | 4913625 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wow they're really setting up for the kill big time now.

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:31 | 4913651 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

 The market are a bad joke. What do stock markets around the world have in common with "girls gone wild" the video of college girls on spring break? The answer is both are crazy out of control. We have grown very complacent as money around the world has continued to flow into intangibles and promises.

Currently the market is all a twitter and locked in a "greed and stupidity loop." The loop can be explained as follows, stocks are rising so why get out, not getting out is causing the stocks to rise. When stocks do pullback it is a buying opportunity. Yes, we are indeed experiencing a double down and let it ride mentality. I don't have to explain the greed part. More about this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/06/stock-markets-and-girls-gone-wild...

 

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:40 | 4913684 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

kito who said negative 2% GDP was not rigged? real number is more like -6%- -8%. When if it prints +2% it will be more like -2 - -4 %%

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 11:16 | 4913823 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Q the list of holders of this POS IPO

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!