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Risk eVIXeration Sends Stocks To New Record-er Highs
The USD is unchanged; Commodities are unchanged; and Treasury yields are up only 2-3bps... but that didn;t stop July 1st from being a banner day for US equity markets (on the back of missed PMI and ISM data). The Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P closed at record highs but sadly the Dow missed out on 17,000 by a mere 1.5 points (despite the best VIX and AUDJPY manipulation $189 billion of repo liquidity free money can buy). Stocks got their start with yet another epic short squeeze at the open then ramped higher thanks to carry to record-er highs; stalling when it seemed Dow 17,000 was elusive. VIX traded with a 10-handle once again.
Stocks on the day...
Led by a big short squeeze at the open...
Dow 17,000 so close...
And then there's this...
The USD was unchanged...
Though AUDJPY was in charge of stocks...
Along with VIX....
Treasuries crept modestly higher...
And commodities closed practically unchanged (despite some chopy vol intrday)...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Camer-on-a-Stick +100% from IPO...
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This market has still room to go higher. For example look at the record short position of GBP/USD that the retail crowd is holding. They will all get wiped out over the coming days. Same with GBP/JPY. This means that we will probably go 200-300 pips higher from here on GBP/USD and 40-50 pips higher with SP500. Let's enjoy the ride!
Luv dem taters and bonus charts....
Just about time to buy those collars.
The absolute Mother of All Tuesdays ! I luv Amurika !!
(Big inhale) AAAAaaaaaa, VIX! I love the smell of VIX.
Has anyone ever seen Janet Yellen and Captain Kangaroo in the same room at the SAME TIME?
Forget VIX, what I got is a fever for MOAR COW BELL!!!
I'm predicting right here, right now that the Dow will close at 17,076 on July 3rd to celebrate our Feddependance.
If your going that far, why not 18,000 by ___ date.
It's only going to go higher. No matter what.
I'm sure someone has suggested it would be 'cute'. But cooler heads are just like, "No WAY dude! That would be SO obvious!"
Still, maybe we can just hover around that number all day...
It HAS to be so tempting, to "sign your work" like that...
This has absolutely nothing to do with true economics or business performance.
One should be in tears over such disorder and the decayed state of civilisation (barbarity) in our day.
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold" - W B Yeats
It's the Fundamentals
SELL ARGENTINA, SELL VENEZUELA, SELL LATAM,
DEFAULTS COMING IN A ROW ACROSS THE WORLD
It's tempting to go long a "speculative blow off top" here actually. roll in 60% into a Russell 2000 index fund...buy some inflation protection, see if you can hit a 60^ upside in a year ala 1999-2000. i can list a whole bunch of names that have been absolutely murdered YTD that have now bottomed quite nicely actually. (the whole 3-d printing space actually.)
obviously one "slight" problem is the fact we appear to be in a recession. this could crush energy prices going into August however....which given that you're guaranteed free money from the Fed "going on still forever" could really light the candle on this bad boy.
obviously trying to follow the Dow as "something relevant" has been like watching paint dry going on 60 years now. long before those things move higher the CEO has spun off everything of value an created a rock star micro cap...just in time to sell out his position and abandon ship on "ye olde Value Trap."
"Never too much inflation. Never too much growth." Sure, America is phucked. This is New York after all though.
Short Spain, Short Italy, Short Portugal, Short Greece, Short France, Short Germany
40% retracement coming in Equities,
GOLD TO 3,000-4,000
Oil back to 50 $
Short Spain, Short Italy, Short Portugal, Short Greece, Short France, Short Germany
40% retracement coming in Equities,
GOLD TO 3,000-4,000
Oil back to 50 $