ADP Employment Surges To Best Since Nov 2012

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's epic catch-up in ADP jobs data (nicely extrapolated off the back of last month's NFP) is the biggest beat since Dec 2012 and biggest gain in jobs since Nov 2012, printing at 281K, up from 179K, and smashing expectations of 205K - in fact the number came above the highest estimate of 250K. While ISMs and PMIs are missing expectations - and notably small businesses in those surveys saying they are not seeing benefits - ADP claims that small businesses gained the most jobs. Of course, we assume the seasonal adjustments had nothing to do with that: from biggest miss in 4 months to biggest beat in 21 months, which is supposedly, normal.



Spot the seasonally-adjusted outlier (remember ADP does not report actual, unadjusted data):

Where the jobs supposedly were: according to ADP, June saw the most construction jobs added since February of 2006. Somehow, we seriously doubt this.

Comparison to the NFP data which ADP today was meant to merely catch up to:


The breakdown from the report:

It is somewhat ironic that small businesses added 117K jobs when ISM said small business were not happy with the employment picture and the outlook was the worst in 2014. At this point, however, nobody cares about data aligning between various "services."

Here is what ADP had to say:

Goods-producing employment rose by 51,000 jobs in June, up from 31,000 jobs gained in May. The construction industry added 36,000 jobs over the month, more than double the May number. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 12,000 jobs in June, up slightly from last month.


Service-providing employment rose by 230,000 jobs in June, up from 148,000 in May. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed 77,000 jobs in June, up from 46,000 in May. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 50,000, up from May’s 36,000. The 11,000 new jobs added in financial activities was about double last month’s number.


"The June jobs number is a welcome boost,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The number of construction jobs added was particularly encouraging, representing the highest total in that industry since February of 2006.”


Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market is steadily improving. Job gains are broad based across all industries and company sizes. Judging from the job market, the economic recovery remains fully intact and is gaining momentum.”

And the obligatory infographic:

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Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:22 | 4917138 Cattender
Cattender's picture


Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:29 | 4917170 ilion
ilion's picture

Thank you Obama!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:35 | 4917202 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Right idea, wrong guy.

I want every one of those 281,000 newly employed people to send Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen a hand written thank you note.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:37 | 4917208 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

What a surprise! Mark Zandi is bullish!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:44 | 4917234 fonzannoon
Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:45 | 4917236 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

ghostery, if you don't have it you should try it, 20+ tracking agents on zh pages is normal.


Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:44 | 4917233 Cattender
Cattender's picture

with such a HUGE Recovery ongoing Gas at $4 + a Gallon don't even Matter! Thank you Obumba!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:46 | 4917239 CH1
CH1's picture

Nothing matters. A number was injected into public view, so we are all saved!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:26 | 4917150 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

If ZH is going to plaster site with ads, at least limit them to porn and penis enlargement.

Nobody here is interested in anything else

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:29 | 4917162 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Check your web surfing habits, dingo...

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:29 | 4917164 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I dunno, Dingo.  The ads for dateasianchicks.come (excuse me, .com) is starting to have an impact on me.  I'm thinking "well..... maybe someday."


Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:32 | 4917183 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

yeah whats up with all the asian chicks, I have not been looking

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:39 | 4917217 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

I always get "Russian women are the best brides" or something like that. Too much surfing on!?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:37 | 4917206 -.-
-.-'s picture

I ordered met my Ukranian wife girlfriend through the "Date Ukranian Women" advertisement 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:42 | 4917226 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Is "wife girlfriend" like a switch you can toggle back and forth?

Guy I used to work with long ago picked up a Russian woman though some match-making site, but her switch stuck in the "wife" position shortly after they were married and he hasn't been able to get it back into the "girfriend" position since.  Maybe his was just defective or something.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:38 | 4917213 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

Life in Asia is great too. We enjoy much more freedome here than in North America. People here are still allowed to use their common sense and make their own decisions regarding their own lives. North America is crumbling under excessive regulations that destroy the quality of life.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:34 | 4917192 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Wall Street is big on hiring escorts/high priced hookers.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:28 | 4917158 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Thank goodness that whole bad economy thing is behind us.  So what should I hit to avoid those fairway bunkers?  -Barry

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:31 | 4917175 crazzziecanuck
crazzziecanuck's picture

As people like John Ralston Saul have said, reality is not in the world.  It's in the measurements made by professionals.  Highly paid professionals, who's sole job is to apply layers of paint over the cow patties.  The generate the Soma to keep everyone felling bright and happy all the time.  Like the Royal courtiers of old, desperately providing what their paymasters **want** to hear.  After all, that's what they are paid to do, isn't it?

2014 looks like it will be another year where the can gets kicked down the road even more.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:27 | 4917159 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

Market building, nothing more.  If it doesn't make sense, its good for market.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:29 | 4917167 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

On track for DOW 17K, gold getting kicked in the face as I type. All systems normal. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:41 | 4917220 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

wait, wait!! Please, not today, but tomorrow! My DOW 17k baseball cap is still in the mail.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:29 | 4917168 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Are these the first numbers? Because they really don't start to become meaningful until around the third revision or so...that's when we'll see them beginning to hone in on the actual figures, whatever they are.

This is just the preliminary 'Salome dancing with a casaba' routine...don't bother even looking up yet.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:29 | 4917169 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Keep stacking.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 14:03 | 4918502 Angelo Misterioso
Angelo Misterioso's picture

any good NY Tri state area places to buy physical?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:31 | 4917174 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

are these seasonally adjust with the planetary alignments?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:31 | 4917178 wswarrior
wswarrior's picture

It's clear that markets are reading on these releases a day ahead of time. The move up yesterday makes much more sense following this release. Notice how the futures today haven't moved much on the release.   It was priced in yesterday.   Truly ridiculous. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:40 | 4917218 crazzziecanuck
crazzziecanuck's picture

I don't think they are reading more than past behaviour.  I just think people realize the game that's going on.

Think about it, did you honestly believe they were going to release figures any different?  The public is so easily fooled.  Run a headline on the front page of the NYT that there were "bearded Russian men" running around Ukraine, then issue the (virtually non-existent) retraction 48 hours later and then only buried in some other minor article on page nine.

Same with the Q1 GDP numbers.  Same with all payroll data.  They release fudged numbers for public consumption, then quiety "correct" them when the risk of having an negative impact has dissipated.  In that perspective, even the justifications for Iraq War fit this pattern: release what you want for effect even if you have to admit it was actually untrue later on.  By that time, you'd have gotten what you wanted.

Maybe I'm just conspiratorial... 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:46 | 4917240 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

So true.

Why should you believe any number nowadays?

Gold price - rigged

FOREX markets - rigged

LIBOR - rigged

Equity markets - HFT-rigged

Bond markets - Belgium-rigged

And so on and so forth

This stuff is fairly complicated to influence, no? With lots of players and factors to watch etc.

How on earth could somebody assume that the employment numbers or PMI numbers - much more easy to be manipulated with - are "correct"??

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:48 | 4917244 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

I've reached the point where I don't believe the public is fooled:  they know the numbers are shite, but they firmly believe that the FED will not allow the markets to correct, and have decided to ride the "insanity elevator" all the way to the top.

Where the public is fooled, is that they believe they can "get out" when the SHTF.

There has never been a bubble as big as the QE-Bubble.  When it pops, the markets will crash in a matter of hours.

Good luck with the timing, sheeple.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:13 | 4917318 crazzziecanuck
crazzziecanuck's picture

The public is very easily fooled.  Just think about Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, and so forth.  In the economic sphere, they step aside and let the "learned" people run things because they have all this fanciful vocabulary.  Like Einstein said, if you can't explain what you do to your grandmother, then you don't know what you're doing.

Why else would they fudge numbers on release?  Seems to me it's all about propping up the existing bubbles.  Last thing anyone in government wants, especially at the very top, is to have numbers that genuinely reflect the state of things.  The very last thing Obama and the Democrats want is a spooked stock market tumbling right before the mid-terms.  Rest assured, the GOP and Tea Party would love nothing more than to see (even more) economic distress.

So, these numbers are generated by government minions to provide the figures that the "markets" need and what the bosses are all but pushing them to generate.  Which is why I'm scratching my head about Q1 GDP.  Not only that, but people should start to think about whether or not these idiot savants generating these numbers are even worth employing because what they produce has little discernable effect.  Would anyone even notice if all these statisticians disappeared for a year?  I suppose there is an external body of people who justify their existence on predicting and analying the results provided by these released figures.

It's those at the top who are running scared and why they come out with these series of pseudo-scientifically generated numbers because it is the fuel to generate the Ponzi fraud schemes.

To put it bluntly, we are led by overeducated idiots with fancy Ivy League degrees that aren't worth the paper they're printed on.  Nothing like George W. Bush to illustrate the value of a "quality" education.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:31 | 4917179 ms8172
ms8172's picture

I am shocked at how long this Bullshit can last!!!!!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:42 | 4917221 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

you're not the only one.  it's amazing, is it not?  but when you stop to think about it: the illusion is supported not just by the US but by every govt in the world living off fiat.  they say the ECB will be next to keep the stock market stoked (I guess the US is just too broke).  it's like a tag team magik act. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:32 | 4917181 wswarrior
wswarrior's picture

It's clear that markets are trading on these releases a day ahead of time. The move up yesterday makes much more sense following this release. Notice how the futures today haven't moved much on the release.   It was priced in yesterday.   Truly ridiculous. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:32 | 4917185 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Proof the awful Q1 GDP number was fake.

.... or maybe this number is the fake one.

.... or maybe they're all fake.  ( <---- hint: this is the right answer)

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:50 | 4917250 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

When my 16yo kid gets a paying job, you may know there is hope. For now, that honor student can only get volunteer work. In our mid-Atlantic city, lots of commercial space open, malls closing and lots of underwater real estate. Also, the natives are getting restless with violent assaults becoming common in certain areas. Rig for heavy weather.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:24 | 4917367 crazzziecanuck
crazzziecanuck's picture

Well, I graduated in 2009 with a mechanical engineering degree (in automation and robotics).  Haven't had an interview since 2010 (and that job was for a crew leader at a railway, so it wasn't even engineering).  Still stuck living with my parents.  Thank God we get along so well.  A friend of mine who graduated sixth in the entire engineering program was only able to get a $12 an hour job and had to commute 50 minutes in each direction.

The job market is a smouldering crater.

So, I had to make do with some spotty contract work that's not even remotely connected to what I was "educated" for.  Teaching Inuit about land management isn't exactly something normally found on a resume like mine but it is (I really did enjoy the people and the work there).  It's interesting work but very, very far from being a source of reliable income.

Probably not what you wanted to hear but make sure he/she realizes that he/she isn't alone.

I've been fighting it, but I may have to finally break down and do my MBA as my boss and best friend has been pushing me to do for two years.  Just what I need.  Adding another $40k to my existing $76k in student loan debt... and with no assurances of a job upon obtaining it.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:33 | 4917188 madcows
madcows's picture

adp is useless at forecasting

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:35 | 4917199 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

With these great numbers we must truly be in a recovery, hence the FED can immediately stop printing and raise interest rates.  Oh wait...

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:58 | 4917280 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"hence the FED can immediately stop printing and raise interest rates"

The Fed's printing and back-door treasury (Brussels) buying has been keeping the economy propped up. No stopping it's election time in November.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:36 | 4917204 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I can see this. There's lots of new construction by me. Once the stuff is built and no one buys it, then the crash.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:37 | 4917210 RiskyBidness
RiskyBidness's picture

are we sure that ADP has not already started to mimic Italy and Spain and count Hookers and Drug dealers.  If so, the numbers make sense.  haha

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:39 | 4917216 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Professional & Business services were up nicely...Are they adding hookers & drug dealers like the Italians now?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:02 | 4917295 d edwards
d edwards's picture

Professional & Business "services" must include burger-flippers.


If you have 10 full time employees, and because of 0bamacare have to make them part-time

viola: you now have 20 employees. It's magic!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:44 | 4917229 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Its summer time people....hookers and drugs are always in more demand at this time.



FWIW, where I live ,the jones' are still buying high dollar trucks, corvettes, and suvs. This is the same game plan the bankers are playing before 2009, when every motherfucker had a hummer (h2,h3) or an escalade...just keep stacking it wont be much longer. Patience.......

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:43 | 4917231 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

this is awesome - bring on MOAR euphoric data - bullshit or not


virtually all market tops occurred on euphoric events - and then everyone (the bagholders in particular) is surprised and can't figure out why the market is tanking


a trillion new homes sold and one trillion cars sold last week - waiting for this release

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 08:51 | 4917257 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

O'Bunghole has now sent more than 700 to Iraq, just three weeks after saying here would be "no boots on the ground." I think they're counted as "financial services." The numbers are seasonally adjusted, of course.

Happy Ramadan, Bitchez!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:02 | 4917292 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

GEE...if everything is looking so fucking rosy....


fucking stupid data bullshit.....

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:03 | 4917296 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

How do we reconcile recent jobs report showing hundreds of thousands of jobs being created and a huge number of people dropping from the work force with economic reality?  My take on the recent jobs report is that as spring comes upon us ever optimistic and more desperate Americans are being pushed into making a decision as to whether to leave the work force or take a lower paying job that is often part time. Yes, people are busy scurrying around, but it should be clarified not at a fast pace. The question then arises as to how this will spill over to economic policy. More on this subject in the article below.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:19 | 4917363 SMC
SMC's picture

A waste of time.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!