The Emerging German-Russian Axis

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Gave via Gavekal Dragonomics,

This weekend has seen the European Union do a stitch-up deal so that arch-federalist Jean-Claude Juncker became Commission president. To be honest, who gets to play eurocrat in chief is of no great interest to me, but the manner of the appointment tells us lots about the changing nature of power in Europe. Governments from Stockholm to Rome reportedly opposed Juncker, but ultimately none would defy Berlin. Also this weekend, it is worth noting some ostensibly bland comments by Vladimir Putin at a German-Russian official function: “We value the accumulated potential of Russian-German relations and the high level of trade and economic cooperation. Germany, one of the European Union leaders, is our most important partner in enhancing peace, global and regional security.”

I would contend that we are seeing a decisive shift in the political character of Eurasia. History tells us that long wars have tended to be fought between maritime empires and continental empires. Think of Athens vs. Sparta, Carthage vs. Rome or Britain vs. Napoleonic France. The last big fight was between the US and the Soviet Union ended in favor of the maritime empire. As a result, since 1989 we have lived in an order ultimately run by the US military. But after some unpleasantness playing the role of global policeman, that maritime empire is in retreat.

The consequence of this move toward isolation is that a bunch of ‘continental empires’ are starting to challenge the monopoly of “legal” international violence that the US has exercised for the last 25 years. The most obvious challengers can be seen in the shape of Sunni Muslims across the Middle East, or in East Asia where a more confident and assertive China is stating its case for preeminence. Such struggles have the potential to become major regional problems, but what worries me more is the emerging continental alliance between Russia and Germany. Preventing such a partnership has for centuries been an idée fixe for French diplomacy, and for good reason. A combination of German industrial might and Russian raw materials and military strength would instantly create a colossus. The Poles, who have been perennial victims of engagements between Germany and Russia, are already visibly panicking, as they should be.

Historically, Paris has tended to ally with the Russians, not because it liked them but to prevent Germany from doing the same. The problem is that France has nothing to offer Russia (save some nice holiday homes and mooring berths for tycoons on its Mediterranean coast) and is, in any case, more focused on perfecting its own political and economic suicide.

This leaves the UK as the only shield against an alliance in the east. But this weekend we saw a clear statement of where Berlin sees its interests. Soothing words of “don’t go” may have been offered to London after the Juncker vote, but the incident has confirmed that the landscape has shifted from a European Germany to a German Europe.

The UK now seems set on a path to leave the EU within four years. The chances of London achieving the kind of root-and-branch treaty change that would keep it in the EU must rank as being close to nil. And as Winston Churchill said: “England does not belong to Europe, it belongs to the seas.” As was the case in the mid-20th century, the UK is unlikely to join a continental empire as a junior member and, when decision time arrives, it will stay allied with the US-led maritime empire.

In the old system, Europe was a kind of protectorate of the US maritime empire, a set-up that worked reasonably well. The challenge to the status quo comes from the east where Vladimir Putin has the clear goal of creating a new Russian/German alliance whose fief will run through Eastern Europe. If he succeeds, this will be a major loss for the maritime empire, especially if the UK has removed itself as an EU player.

There will be major political repercussions in the US from such a political carve up. The question will not only be how did “we” come to lose Asia and the Middle East, but also “our” most reliable and pliable ally—Europe.

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Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:06 | 4919190 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Bilateral trade in rubles and euros up next

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:08 | 4919195 gh0atrider
gh0atrider's picture

Bu.. bu.. but gh0at thought Karen Hudes said there would be no German-Russian alliance?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:09 | 4919201 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Putin speaks German nearly as good as Russian.. His kids go to school in Germany.. and where and when did Angela grow up?    Noodleman ain’t screwing this one up with no f’n NGO’s.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:16 | 4919227 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Yay, Octoberfest with vodka!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:25 | 4919258 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Jede nacht at Manthonghaus

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 18:16 | 4919410 The Alarmist
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"The question will not only be how did “we” come to lose Asia and the Middle East, but also “our” most reliable and pliable ally—Europe."

When you have senior State Department types caught dead-on saying "F*@k the EU."  Forgive me for the invoking image of Vicky Nuland wearning a wife-beater, but at some point the battered partner needs to find new shelter. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 21:23 | 4919917 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

fortunately, netiher russia nor germany has any interest in creating closer ties with countries in the middle east

they would have to ask permission to do that

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 23:10 | 4920195 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Not true, what about the Russian SU 25's to Iraq? Massive Assad support? Iran support?

The death cross is going to have all manners of secret governments who are the collective Third reich vs. the rest of the world I think.

But if Operation  High-jump+rat lines story is true.....holy vaticular smoke, we've got a formidable creature at our hands.

Oh and there is a coonspiracy (!!!) theory that Hillary and Angela are both Hitler's daughters....and 2016 is the year.

And do notice, female CB head in Russia. Very interesting, Indian mega banks are dominated by women CEOs (all appointed in the last 7-10 years). See Laggard (IMuff), Yellin (IAM)....etc...

Yeah!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 23:23 | 4920236 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Jesus, if this site get any more pro-Russia it will be hard to claim libertarian.  Give it a rest with dreamboat Putin, he's a fucking thug and no better than our own "leaders".

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 23:45 | 4920298 stoneworker
stoneworker's picture

The enemy of my enemy mentality....idk what exactly do you not like about him?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:15 | 4920359 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Maybe I do not like that Putin is a fucking psychopathic thug and a murderous one at that. (Now of course Obama is a psychopathic murderous Chicago thug...)

 

Trading one thug for another is still a choice for evil.

 

You do not become KGB Bureau Chief of East Germany without killing a few competitors.

 

I know...I know...To make an omlette you have to break a few eggs but, seriously?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:25 | 4920374 stoneworker
stoneworker's picture

So your only proof of him murdering someone is that he worked for the KGB? As I understand it he was not the Bureau chief ....I understand what you mean that people cannot become rulers on that level without getting their hands dirty, but....innocent until proven guilty is how I choose to live my life.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:36 | 4920382 strannick
strannick's picture

Don't forget the McCain, Hilary, Kerry, Pelosi muderous psychopathic thugs. I mean, like you said, you don't get to that level of ect. ect. ect. The Unknown Putin on YouTube makes for a good watch.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:06 | 4920438 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

As I responded below...We are not exceptional...not at all.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:34 | 4920384 BKbroiler
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that's not the point.  It's like when you hate a sibling but don't want to hear other people talk badly about them.  Our leaders might be idiots but they're our leaders.  I doubt you'd want to live in Russia, and idolizing foreigh leaders just seems fringe like to me.  

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:47 | 4920408 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

I don't identify with, nor relate to, any of the psychopaths.

What I do consider is whose psychopaths are the most dangerous.

Those in the US and those who support them are. That includes the dupes outside of .gov.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:14 | 4920446 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Have your investments returned blood money?

 

Did you pay taxes to a regime that murdered 500,000 Iraqi children so that Dollar hedgmony continue and you enjoyed a higher standard of living as a result?

 

Nobody is innocent...not even me.

 

As Tyler Durden says, "Your level of participation is [entirely] up to you."

 

How complicit are you in the continuation of this nightmare?

 

Are you choosing another psychopatic thug because the one in office here is evil?

 

I have got some bad news. That one is evil...just as evil as the one who occupies 1600 Pennslyvania Ave.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 04:58 | 4920677 conscious being
conscious being's picture

Your comparison is useless.  One is a puppet and one grabbed the reins of power in a bold move when he had the chance, to save his country and his faith.

If you have something factual to say instead of useless generalizations, then lets hear it.

FYI, the people he had force to let go of Russia were well connected with Western power elite, banking and media.  So of course the Western media is going to do its best to trash the guy.

If you have some specific accusations about why he's a bad guy, then lets hear it, but just repeating over and over "Putin's a bad guy." ... is kind of stupid.  Like you've been MKULTRA'd or someting.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 05:12 | 4920695 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Like you've been MKULTRA'd or someting.

 

LMAO...Any source which I reveal will be dismissed by you as "Western Propaganda". I do not engage in pointless dialouge.

 

You can choose to support evil if you want. Personally I will reject it, American or Russian style.

 

The choice between the lesser of two evils is a choice for evil.

 

If you choose evil then you shall reap evil. Enjoy the consequences of your choices.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 06:21 | 4920772 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Look.  The main reason we're seeing Putin and Merkel doing this is

BECAUSE THEY SEE THE U.S. IS NOW A FAT, LETHARGIC, CORRUPT DYSFUNCTIONAL  REPUBLIC LIKE ROME BECAME

AND OBAMA HAS BECOME EMPEROR OF AMERICA

AND SO THEY'RE REACTING AS GERMANY AND RUSSIA DID TO NAPOLEON !

History is indeed repeated itself it this regard.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:10 | 4921069 conscious being
conscious being's picture

"Any source which I reveal will be dismissed by you as "Western Propaganda".

Weak, weak response.  You are full of BS and have nothing to back up your BS, which means, your kind of a useless troll, just running your mouth and taking up space.

If you have something, throw it out there.  Don't worry about me.  If you have something legitimate, the ZH Community will get behind you, if not, then see preceding line about you being a useless troll.

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 14:15 | 4922227 layman_please
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"...and one grabbed the reins of power in a bold move when he had the chance, to save his country and his faith."

this is one of the most naive thing i have heard about any ruler in a long time. if you would know anything about history and russia, and moreover about russian history, you wouldn't need any proof that there is not a single ruler in the world who's is an angel. especially someone from a country (russia) that is as corrupt as us and a, although in a culturally different way and with slightly less imperial ambition.

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:55 | 4920420 stoneworker
stoneworker's picture

Here is the thing imagine that they are not your "leaders" but your masters who are leading you into the abyss for personal gain....Sure the other guy is also a master of other people, but at least right now he is not the one leading you into the abyss. I don't think Russia is as bad as the media tries to portray it....I have  a couple of friends who have been to Russia on business....they said...the freedoms are basically the same, the taxes are lower, but the weather is worse and there is a language barrier especially if you go to the countryside. Anyway I am not idolizing anybody, but I do think people should be judged objectively. 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:09 | 4920442 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Ingroup-outgroup morality is just an emotional response in this day and age. Sort of like confirmation bias.

It is a survival adaptation that is no longer useful and has actually become harmful- like the worldwide blind respect for authority.

Stupid stupid meat puppets.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:20 | 4920456 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Sure the other guy is also a master of other people, but at least right now he is not the one leading you into the abyss.

 

WRONG. The other guy is leading you into the abyss as fast, if not quicker, as our own leaders as he is SELF INTERESTED. He does not care for his own people and can actually care less about those whom are not his own.

 

You are a useful tool to be thrown under the bus when you are no longer useful...discarded like an old rag.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:28 | 4920468 stoneworker
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The other guy is not leading you anywhere because he is not your "leader"...there is such a thing as a lesser evil.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:49 | 4920498 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

You mean that if Putin decides to declare a hot war against the USA that I will not in any way be affected?

 

Wow. Thanks. I will sleep a little bit better.

 

/sarcasm

 

I refuse to choose evil. Greater...or lesser.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 02:55 | 4920568 stoneworker
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You basically do everyday by choosing where you sleep...there will be no hot nuclear war. Hot war will destroy everything these bankers have created that is not their goal...sleep in peace

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 12:36 | 4924740 Anusocracy
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"if Putin decides to declare a hot war against the USA"

I guess you are unaware of the US being the aggressor during the Cold War. Still is.

" refuse to choose evil. Greater...or lesser."

Really? I see a bias towards criticizing Russia. I despise every government, but I'm wary of the most actionable evil: the US.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:45 | 4920492 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

right  russia is not as bad as the media would portray....

Russian Stereotypes & Russophobia

http://russianuniverse.org/russian-stereotypes/

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:25 | 4920463 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

i really don't think it would be such a bad place to live...

yakutia russia is full of interesting ppl

http://askyakutia.com/

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:29 | 4920469 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

so accept our leaders just cuz they are our leaders????

no thank you

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:03 | 4920435 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

....innocent until proven guilty is how I choose to live my life.

 

The innocent are the children and the sheep...

 

Not one damned Congresscritter is innocent. Not one damned US Senator is innocent. Thet get rich off of spilling others' blood.

 

Now we are not all that exceptional when considering the rest of the World.

 

Proof? Well at times the guilty walk...especially when they buy the courts.

 

Just because it can't be "proven" does not mean that it is not the case. So take a good look in the mirror and tell  yourself just how innocent you are. Justify your misdeeds.

 

LMAO.

 

That is the reality. Deal with it.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:27 | 4920464 stoneworker
stoneworker's picture

This is the reality...you can throw any man in prison for the rest of his life and he will know the reason. According to you we should just start shooting at random people in power...well guess what you will probably end up killing the only decent person there and he will be replaced with somebody much worse. If you plan on changing something for the better you need to do it carefully.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:44 | 4920487 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Where in the hell did that non sequitur come from? When did I propose that?

 

(I may have wrote "Sharpening my Steel for the Guillotines" in previous posts but then sarcasm and satire may escape you. I may have wrote that destruction of Property is good. But, again, satire may escape you.)

 

Unfortunately for the statist the revolution will be very bloody and violent as the price for Liberty and Freedom is paid in blood.

 

As my level of participation is up to me. and that eventuality of Revolution has NOT, AS OF YET, MANIFESTED, suggesting that I have acted is a non sequitur.

 

But I will keep you in mind.

 

Now you can choose evil if you want. But there will be Hell to pay at the end of your life. Eternity is a very long time.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 05:07 | 4920686 conscious being
conscious being's picture

'Written' Tom.  Its 'written'.  You lost me at 'written'.  I got past non sequitor, but I think you meant 'strawman'?  But who knows?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:04 | 4920342 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Get any free bagels today at the bank?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:09 | 4920349 stoneworker
stoneworker's picture

I think you are mistaking Putin for Nuland handing out cookies....

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:20 | 4920363 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

If you really think that Putin is not in the pockets of the Zionists, Freddie, then you are certainly deluded.

 

Just who in the hell set up post USSR collapse Russia? Where did the capital come from?

 

Follow the fucking money and use your head.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:35 | 4920388 Grimnir
Grimnir's picture

Post USSR collapse? They've been running Russia far longer than that. Look up who funded the Bolshevik revolution and what group of people had a disproportionately high amount of positions in the Soviet government.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:59 | 4920427 stoneworker
stoneworker's picture

Please don't buy the Jews ruled the Soviet Union Hitler crap..they may have helped start the revolution, but it was Stalin(an enthnic Georgian) who finished it....read up on what happened to Trotsky and a lot of the other Jews that were there during the start.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:30 | 4920470 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

There is a difference between Jews and Zionists.

 

I know many good Jews. I happen to love them. They are amongst the finest and noblest of people.

 

Proponents of Zionism, which is an offshoot of Zealotry, believe themselves to be superior and that the Goyim is to be ruled over.

 

Even Jesus Christ was opposed to the Zealots of his day.

 

I am enslaved to no one but Christ Jesus and that is by my choice.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:49 | 4920501 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

totally and completely agree....

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:21 | 4920458 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Grimnir...Point taken.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 00:37 | 4920391 stoneworker
stoneworker's picture

Perhaps...but I am going to need more than your comment to believe this...do you have any proof/logic....when the USSR collapsed Yeltsin became the president of Russia....and what a president he was....I think the European puppets at least don't enjoy being puppets... It is unclear how Putin came to power, but things in Russia changed dramatically...the oligarchs were put down, the Chechen war was won, corruption decreased, salaries increased greatly....the man has and 80-90% approval rate he is doing something right. Also the rhetoric from the west also changed dramatically.....in fact there is a saying I heard in Russia that when the west is blaming you it means you are doing everything correctly. My personal belief is that Putin came to power, because of a number of reasons. 1) Yeltsin was on his way out medically(he died a couple of years after leaving office and he was a heavy drinker) 2) the people were sick of democracy so the old guard "siloviki"(people in the police/military..) were actually starting to look pretty good and they had the support of the people in case of a coup 3) Putin had a reputation for holding his word and being an effective government official 4) The siloviki realized that this was their opportunity to take back Russia so they approached Yeltsin through Putin before his term ended and made it clear to him that if he simply drops everything and gets the hell out of Dodge neither he nor his family would be harmed...but if he does not they will all be dead(you would not take this threat likely from all the ex KGB apparatchiks) Putin's word made this deal possible. Perhaps I am wrong and all of that is fiction, but I think that believing that the world is already ruled by one entity simply does not explain all of this kabuki theater and constant nonsense. I recommed watching BBC's Putin Russia and the West it is very infromative in my opinion.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:24 | 4920460 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I recommed watching BBC's Putin Russia and the West it is very infromative in my opinion.

 

The BBC is the propaganda venue of the United Kingdom.

 

I will read, thanks.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:30 | 4920472 stoneworker
stoneworker's picture

I know all about what BBC does this is why I think they will try and bring out the worst in Putin(not lie on his behalf)...watch it and you will understand everything about modern Russia.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:54 | 4920511 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Keep watching your TeeVee. You need your regular nightly programming.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:40 | 4920486 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

u have some good thoughts here....

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:54 | 4920510 snip777
snip777's picture

Being a russian I agree with you, this is exactly what happend. Except I don't trust BBC.

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