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Stocks Are Officially More Overvalued Than During The Last Bubble Peak

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Over the weekend we showed that when it comes to fugding what one means by EPS (GAAP, non-GAAP, Pension accounting adjusted, etc), there is a virtually endless spectrum how one can make what is now effectively a 20x LTM P/E market appear as a "reasonably" valued 16.5x. But while fudging snapshot earnings is one thing, presenting an "apples-to-apples" valuation trend based on any one given methodology is something different, and provides a much needed continuum of (over) valuation. Which is why we go to the just released Q3 Guide to the Markets released by JPM Asset Management where we read the following:

  • Current forward S&P 500 P/E: 15.6x
  • Forward S&P 500 P/E on October 9, 2007: 15.2x

Needless to say, this assumes the current consensus for Non-GAAP earnings growth is accurate, which as we explained previously is driven almost entirely by "one-time charge" addbacks: addbacks which traditionally peak just before recessions strikes.

But all of the above is "noise" to quote Janet Yellen. One quick look at the chart below and it becomes immediately clear that the 190% surge in the S&P since the 2009 lows has been entirely on the $10 trillion (excluding China's $25 trillion in new financial debt) in central bank created liquidity.

 

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Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:17 | 4918819 newsguy68
newsguy68's picture
Round Up Of Retailers Closing Locations Or Going Bankrupt In 2014  http://wealthydebates.com/round-retailers-closing-locations-going-bankrupt-2014/
Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:23 | 4918836 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

BTFATH!  Burrish!

/sarc

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:26 | 4918855 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

In December 1996 the PE(fwd) was 16 and the SP500 went roaring on for 3.5 moar years.  We're only at 15.6 now, so we have at least 3 moar years of the BS Yellen induced market.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:34 | 4918894 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Agreed... foreward earnings could go to the fucking moon before anyone really gives a shit...  The talking heads will find anyway possible to keep the herd moving...

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:46 | 4918917 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

In '08 the market was headed for zero.  The Fed bought in and bought everything up with their algos.  Now we have it "overvalued".  Huh?  How can the guy fixing the horse race win by too much of a margin?

There is no free market.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:50 | 4918960 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Sounds like the plot from an old gangsta movie

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:03 | 4918999 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Stocks Are Officially More Overvalued Than During The Last Bubble Peak

Mission accomplished!  You can take the rest of the year off, Janet.

Also, how do I hire Todd Martin?  He is either a prophet, or has awesome inside information from 33 Liberty.  Either way.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/socgen-asia-strategist-has-near-fit-bloomb...

 

The only other Wall Street insider I know of with a better crystal ball than Todd is this guy...

Mar 4, 2009 - President Obama said Tuesday this might be a smart time to buy into the stock market.
 
"What you're now seeing is profit-and-earning ratios [he means price-to-earnings...damn telepropmptor] are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it," Obama said Tuesday.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/obama-buy-stocks-good-deals-lon...

 

I am waiting for these two pros to tell me when it is time to sell.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:22 | 4919250 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Since, Oct 4th 2011, the SP500 has been growing at a CAGR of 21.5%.

Has you income been growing at that rate?  Never-mind.

How has the cost of living gone up in that time frame?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:51 | 4918964 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

DONALD DUCK Is Up More Than THe DOW!

Donald Duck gold coins sold out ‘in minutes’
MINING.com Editor | July 2, 2014

2014 80th anniversary of Donald Duck gold and silver coins in presentation case.

One thousand Donald Duck gold coins made by New Zealand’s and Australia’s Mints sold out in the first 10 minutes after their release last week and are now being traded on auction websites for a 100% profit.

According to the mint, the only remaining ones are silver coins, which —just like their bullion version— show the Disney character as it appeared for the first time 80 years ago, wearing his trademark sailor suit and bow tie, in “The Wise Little Hen” (1934).

Donald Duck gold coins sold out ‘in minutes’

Coin collectors seem to be among the few ones who have not lost their faith in gold. The Donald Duck coins follow gold and silver ones released in April, which depicted Mickey Mouse and that also sold out within days.

Experts believe that, beyond collectors push, coin sales have been lifted by gold's reputation as a safe haven. As inflation increases, the value of money drops and the prices of all goods increase. Consumers prefer to hold gold instead of cash during these periods as gold acts as a value retainer for them.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:12 | 4918992 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Today the S&P 500 Price Sales Ratio has equalled an all time high.

An advantage to using the P/S ratio is that it is based on sales, a figure that is much harder to manipulate and is subject to fewer accounting estimates than earnings.

3:34 pm EDT, Wed, 2 Jul 2014

Current S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio: 1.77 +0.00 (0.03%)

Mean: 1.37 Median: 1.42   

Min: 0.80 (Mar 2009) Max: 1.77 (Dec 2000)

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:46 | 4918946 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

All PE is not created equal.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:56 | 4918989 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Ya mean FB is not a buy at 86 PE ?

And AMZN at 519 PE ?

 

What could go wrong?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 19:11 | 4919556 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Anyone who actually believes the real P/E of S&P right now is 16, is an idiot.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:40 | 4918915 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

What's the GAAP P/E?

Since non GAAP earnings are excluding one time and unexpected items, how do you do a "forward" computation, given the one time items are unpredictable. 

If they are known and predictable, why aren't they audited?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:53 | 4918977 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

All the stocks I kept in the market are losing.  Mining, metals, oil, etc. and Dow shorts.  I may as well leave them in, although with my luck the broker will go bankrupt before I can sell.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:43 | 4919131 game theory
game theory's picture

SIPC protects accounts to $500k [that is, assuming you think they'd be solvent in a massive fraud perpetrated by all brokers].

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:00 | 4919000 midtowng
midtowng's picture

This article is confusing me with numbers and facts

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:39 | 4919080 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I know what you mean. I can't stand looking at numbers.

I miss Diane Sawyer telling me everything is great in the world and the instant index telling me about some new dog, and a little girl that just made a shirt for the president, and all that feel-good shit.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:25 | 4918853 max2205
max2205's picture

Wish you told me to hold till 15.6 frwd pe...

 

Damn you

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:25 | 4918854 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Which means the discounts are coming!  GDP bump!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:58 | 4918996 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Things have to be bad if Piggly Wiggly is closing two stores.

And I mean BAD!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:17 | 4918820 -.-
-.-'s picture

Which way did they go George?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:18 | 4918824 youngman
youngman's picture

all talking about 20,000 on the dow now...its to the moon...why not..nothing else to invest in..PMs are the forgotton son...the black sheep...

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 19:15 | 4919572 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The central banksters will pull the trap door again when it best suits them, as usual.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:19 | 4918828 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

THis is the LAST bubble, right? I mean when this baby pops it is game over as far as we know the game to be. 

No point for a 10 percent pullback now....just fucking crater the pos and get it over with. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:31 | 4918875 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Of course not.   Isn't everybody on here going to wait for the 50+% "correction" and then go all in and our DNA-bling will rule the earth?  

That's the plan, right?

 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:34 | 4918893 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

You are reading from the 2009 playbook, hippy. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:14 | 4919047 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

You know if it corrects by 70%, why not? The money has to go somewhere.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:00 | 4919178 max2205
max2205's picture

At this point there is no level I'd go all in...
They have out olded me....we'll played Fed

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:25 | 4919079 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

Nah, that one gold coin in the shoebox will be used to buy 40 miles of virgin shoreline on Lake Michigan.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:56 | 4918975 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

THis is the LAST bubble, right?

Athough the markets are bubbling - the mechanism is a PONZI perpertrated by another PONZI - the U.S. Dollar!  every PONZI we have is playing off the DOLLAR!!  

Add it up:  all the govt prepping, militarizing the police, NSA, etc...  When the dollar blows: the markets are gone taking out 401(k)s, etc., Social Security PONZI is exposed and killed, Education PONZI collapses, all at a time when BOOMERS thought they were going to be able retire comfortably and in peace - WRONG!!

anyone seen this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw

go here and see what is missing from the above http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/011514.htm  (search for: G20, G7, numerology. Also search "entire" and notice it is italicized).

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:02 | 4919108 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

July 20th is the reset you say?  We will hold you to that call.

Personally I think you are being terribly optimistic.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:08 | 4919199 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

LMAO...at the "optimism".

 

However the truth is that the reset has been happening continuously since the 2008 crash.

 

The reset is not an instantaneous one time event but it is a continuation...a process.

 

When the US DEFAULTED ON GOLD back in August, 1971, the World was in limbo for a couple of years before the Dollar was backed by Saudi (and OPEC) Oil.

 

That entire time was a resetting process from Bretton Woods to the Petrodollar.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:16 | 4919225 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely why he is being optimistic.  What real resource do the E.Z. countries have to "back" any new currency with?  It is a fiat world now and has been for 40+ years.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:53 | 4919348 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

ZERO RESOURCES except Human Chattel.

 

I just appreciate your good snark.

 

The point is that the reset is happening continually. There is not a set date for it.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 18:08 | 4919385 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, evolution is always happening. It can happen slow for a long time, then it can happen "all of a sudden".

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 19:19 | 4919586 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Yeah. Exponential Collapse and all o' that. I am not writing that it will not happen that way but, to the contrary... (Shocks WILL happen just as it did in the early 1970's. Remember the first "Energy Crisis" in 1973?)

 

But there is no set date. Anybody whom tells me a set date I tend to look at with some healthy skepticism.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 23:23 | 4920243 skidsmango1
skidsmango1's picture

Watched the video.  First thought was she looks like and talks like Alan Greenscam in drag.

This I can't wrap my mind around - why do the people who designed the system, that they are now getting ready to blow up, need to use coded messages to tell each other when it is going to happen?

If the numerolical references are intentional, I can't believe this is 'their' way of passing information.  Don't they just whisper the stuff to each other while giving a reach around?

Is this just more of the misinformation game???

Skids

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 02:42 | 4920558 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Complete, unadulterated garbage. Numerology, pffftttttt. Next we're going to start talking astrology.You hit the nail on the head, with "why don't they just email each other". BINGO, you can now stop thinking about this crap.

What is happening to this forum.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 23:24 | 4920245 skidsmango1
skidsmango1's picture

Watched the video.  First thought was she looks like and talks like Alan Greenscam in drag.

This I can't wrap my mind around - why do the people who designed the system, that they are now getting ready to blow up, need to use coded messages to tell each other when it is going to happen?

If the numerolical references are intentional, I can't believe this is 'their' way of passing information.  Don't they just whisper the stuff to each other while giving a reach around?

Is this just more of the misinformation game???

Skids

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 07:22 | 4920826 Himins
Himins's picture

She refers to the G7, on janurary 14th, while officialy the G8 hadn't really been reduced to the G7 until March 25th or so this same year. I'm not sure how to read that.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 10:43 | 4921415 skidsmango1
skidsmango1's picture

...nothing against numerology, but she didn't convince me she knew what she was talking about.  Or, her speech writer didn't.  Feels like a more elegant type of fear porn....

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:21 | 4918829 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

no one could have seen it coming.  btw, is the market on today?  this complacency is both disturbing and hillarious.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:22 | 4918837 globozart
globozart's picture

Someone forgot the difference in newly printed money in this chart. FED balance sheet.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:23 | 4918840 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i'm happy as a clam with 1975. i'll take it.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:23 | 4918842 o.t.p.s
o.t.p.s's picture

Well, at least we wont`have any inflation worries anymore after the crash of all crashes

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:28 | 4919264 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Not true.

 

The choice between a Defaltionary Meltdown or a Hyperinflationary Inferno has yet to be decided. They, TPTB, have done nothing short of a miracle to have delayed the consequences of the 2008 Collapse for as long as they have.

 

But the debt must either be retired or paid.

 

The path has not yet crystallized.

 

Either path ultimately leads to deflation. Both paths ultimately lead to a lot of pain and destruction.

 

Many will perish...and I mean that literally and not figuratively...and the suffering upon all of the people will be great for the overindulgences of the Financial Fraudsters...the few.

 

After the next crash they will have to make a painful decision...There will not be enough capital, political, or financial, to bail it out again.

 

If they choose to let it go then deflation will be our lot.

 

If they decide to attempt to save it then it will be hyperinflationary. The hyperinflationary route is the least painful in the short term but the most painful overall as there will be a deflation which follows it, guaranteed. There will be no common currency as that will have been destroyed.

 

Unfortunately there will be no other foreign currency as a backstop because this time it is GLOBAL as all fiat currencies are subject to the forces of the destruction of the US Dollar.

 

We are fucked. From the front, or behind, it matters not as we are just as raped from the TPTB homos.

 

So do you choose to get ass raped from the front or from the rear? There will be no K-Y JellyTM to ease the entry, no liquidity worth a damn. There is no difference as you are just as reamed.

 

TPTB need to die miserable deaths by torture as that is what they have inflicted upon us all.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:23 | 4918843 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

forward earnings, projected by sell side cum swallowers , i always trust their predictions

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:28 | 4918864 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

sell side cum swallowers

I am going to reluctantly add this poingnant term to my home schooling curriculum.....for the senior year...when the term sell side is not so disgustiing. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:24 | 4918850 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

All resources of the state are being mustered to levitate the stock markets which sustain the US economy, unsustainable debt and dollar hegemony.  It will not last for long.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:29 | 4918873 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Until all the "short money" runs out it'll keep going up.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:42 | 4918926 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Dood, the smart money isn't in equities in any form, long or short, and it's never coming back, either.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:24 | 4918852 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Overvalued", priced in what exactly?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:31 | 4918876 _disengage_
_disengage_'s picture

LoP,
The other day I said I thought this whole scheme was setting up bankers/rich as fall guys and when the economy tanks, the elites will possibly run to China. You said it is a global fraud and the elite woulnd't likely be allowed to have power in China.

I agree that it is global fraud, but I don't think the elites would need to "have power" in China in the sense of holding selected office/CEO type positions. I think the elite already own China (and pretty much the globe, from behind the scenes) and will merely live there as the standard of living in China increases while it decreases in the US/West. AKA after sucking the western middle class dry, move on to an eastern host.

If their plan plays out how I think they want it to, bankers take the fall and the guys behind the curtain quietly walk off and set up the next round while we proles are fighting/suffering.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:39 | 4918914 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

I think you are over thinking these elite guys.    The elite are just the people who have the confidence and personality to take/do (simply take/do) what they know - in their hearts -  they are entited too.   It's not like there's a global plan of "THEE elites".   Our "elite" can't flee to China because they'd be a minority there, and EVERYBODY hate minorities (and everybody knows they'd be a minority in China).    And, you actually think the Chinese "elite" want our "elite" to feed off the dumbasses in China?  So, the "elite" will take what they are entitled to - each in their own society (and sub-society) - until there's no more to take.   

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:51 | 4918956 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  Sure occassionally, one of these "elite" might find themselves getting there head dettached from their body or the like, but these people are certainly used to taking risks.   Which I have no problem with, if it's their own wealth they risk. 

 

One thing is for sure, smart flks know how to hedge accordingly as that which canot be sustained won't be.

 

As for the Chinese, they are a tightly knit society. Compare that to food-stamp 'merica.  you tell me who can weather the storm.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:11 | 4919036 _disengage_
_disengage_'s picture

I agree there is a storm coming and the Chinese people will probably do better. This is why I think their economy will re-emerge first and we'll have a Chinese century.

I don't doubt there will be global hell to pay, but why can't a few hundred people hunker down where ever for a few years or however long the war lasts, and then come out and take over the just emerging Chinese economy - driving it just like they did in the US.

I think the point we disagree on is Our elite versus Their elite. I think there is just THE elite as NanA pointed out and disagrees with. Under THE elite are CFR/UN types, then big business, then national govs. (or some such heirarchy)

What difference is there between left/right, red/blue, Dem/repub, and US/China? There is a cultural difference yeah, but there are differences in the left/right, even though in the long run they both go the same direction. I think the same is said for countries. Different, but going in the same general direction.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:55 | 4918972 _disengage_
_disengage_'s picture

Given the coordination between countries/central banks/"markets" over these past few years, is it that hard to imagine the smart-n-savy folk from the US and China and Everywhere don't work together?

I think the elite feed off the global proles, countries are just there to help compartmentalize it. Right now, and for the past 100 or so years, they have been growing the US economy to harvest. Now we'll have war and a new economy will emerge to be grown for harvest - I think this is going to be in the area we label China.

Look at the UN/Trilateral/CFR etc. Doubt any of them are real elite, just paycheck players, but are from all nationalities working toward the same one world government, no? Probably representative of those behind the scenes.

Edit: to be specific, I'd number actual string pulling elites of the globe at less than several hundred + attached families.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:25 | 4918858 screw face
screw face's picture

ah ring-a ring ding

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:25 | 4918861 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Cue the "Fed Model" as justification for current market valuation from CNBC in 3...2...1...

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:27 | 4918867 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Sure, but what's that bubble chart look like adusted for the fiat bubble chart? 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:27 | 4918868 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Bubble and bust for the last 3 decades and again for the next 3 decades ....assuming the Fed goes unkilled once and for all.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:37 | 4918907 WhyWait
WhyWait's picture

The issue is what else is the next bust going to trigger - or coincide with?  

Is it building up like that because the money managers are terrified of what it will set off?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:43 | 4918929 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Who cares.    That's why we're all waiting.   Because when it pops those with "cash on the sidelines" will be able to swoop in and buy at unbelievable lows and then WE'LL have all the automotive bling and females with big teeth and hair.  

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:54 | 4918981 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Or, they will just keep cash on the sidelines. I don't see my cash as on any line, side or otherwise. I would suggest that most habitual gamblers have no cash on the side lines, unless you count their life insurance or maybe they kids education fund (if they are really, really strong). My money will NEVER see another stock fund of any kind. NEVER. I follow the markets for the same reason as I would be monitoring radiation if I lived in Japan. These fuckers will burn the whole planet down for one more bubble, one more chance at easy money, skimmed off of the laboring muppets still trying to WORK for a living.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:28 | 4918869 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

All i see is 25.5 from 2000. That's all anyone else sees too. And, again, if this is going to be THE bubble of ALL bubbles, they will make even that look undervalued. Stop looking for the drop, it's never coming.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:57 | 4918990 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The market must collapse. If it is allowed to continue its upward climb it will suck every fucking dime of productive capital out of the economy and it will have no other choice. But it may crash at 25000 and forever remain 25000 as the currency will be destroyed and monetary measurement may become a quaint memory.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:17 | 4919059 Reference Variable
Reference Variable's picture

This makes good sense. How much equity is owned by CBs? Nobody knows right?

If the only thing that can spoil your party is market collapse->hyperinflation wouldn't you rig it so that it never happens? POMO saves their world as they know it... except they will have to kill LOTS and LOTS of people to maintain hegemony. Think sanity will prevail and prevent a war? There were many people who knew Jesus to be GOD or a prophet of GOD, but still had him murdered...

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:33 | 4918887 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Throw on some Straddles before the Close boys. I feel a violent move coming tomorrow.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:37 | 4918905 gdiamond22
gdiamond22's picture

I'll be happy to sell you the put side of that. Mr. Yellen is providing the liquidity so I promise I'll get you a good price.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:41 | 4918920 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Buy'em !

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:41 | 4918923 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

some people never learn

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:35 | 4918898 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

onward.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:36 | 4918899 Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

Buy the dips....the bubble won't burst until the Fed raises interest rates (when all the sucker money is in). Of course because of the bond market they can never raise interest rates again (unless they plan on killing the Dollar).

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:36 | 4918902 nink
nink's picture

We have completely lost touch with reality. We are now beyond even ponzinomics territory.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:38 | 4918908 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Just look at the parabolic increase that started with QE3.  When an unsustainable rate of increase breaks, it doesn't just hang out around peak levels.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:41 | 4918918 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Kaboom?  Yes, Rico......Kaboom."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmQ7BL7s5nQ

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:45 | 4918938 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

OT, and a shout for the Tylers here, help a mixer out.

It turns out we all know the fucking fiends that run our countries are bent.  But how bent?  Just came out today that a very prominent figure in the Thatcher years called 'Leon Brittan' was given a very thick dossier on paedophiles in the very highest realms of British life and politics.

Now accroding to this kiddie fiddling diddler, he gave said dossier to his untermenchen staff in the public service, they said nowt, he done nowt, they didnt follow it up, and neither did himself, the dirty fucking child toucher, eh?

This dossier it seems could have stopped one 'Jimmy Saville' and co-horts, and he did nothing.  Thats a bonafide government minister who did fuck all, while people he must have personally known abused children.

This is endemic, this isnt just here in filthy England, this is world wide, and it involves the very top of the poles we all live under.

Fancy a go Tyler?  You have more reach than I do.

There is a deeper, filthier aspect to the bastards who grind us down my friends, they like your kids, and here in England some poor 10,000 children go missing every year, never found, never given justice.

This needs some very wide attention.

We are 'Ruled' by beasts.  Its time to stop them, this cannot go on.

96

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:54 | 4918980 SMG
SMG's picture

Well said.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:09 | 4919035 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Thank you SMG.

These poor kids need a voice.  I am one man, I need help here.

If you have kids, you will understand, no-one touches your kids, in any way.

These fuckers who over see the running of our countries, have systemically, and knowingly abused our children with no comebacks, no trouble, no police action, and no stopping them, they were above the law before the internet.

They are not now.

They need erradicating, dealt with, destroyed.

They are inhuman, beyond any reasonable means of human help.

Monsters.

96

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:46 | 4919329 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

In Phoenix, AZ, USA, I was an Engineering Tech on a construction crew finishing up Eisenhower's Interstate Freeway System.

 

We had to work in the "Fruit Loop". There were a bunch of Child Male Prostitutes and our Crew HATED THEM. So one of our crew acted out in violence towards one of those children when propositioned. (He chased him with an axe to castrate the little bugger.)

 

So Phoenix Police Department was called out to "protect them". Just who called them out???

 

These rich old men from Scottsdale, AZ, in their Lincoln Continentals, would continue to pick them up for "services" while the Phoenix Police Department just turned a blind eye. The people in power control the Law Enforcement Agencies. The Police just protected the pedophile's livestock and allowed them to continue to get ass raped.

 

Just what do you suggest? (At one point I thought of renting a "Room With A View", in the Fruit Loop, WITH A SNIPER'S RIFLE...It was not worth it.)

 

I have faith that God Almighty will give justice and then these Rich Fucks will have their asses reamed by Satan for eternity.

 

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 02:53 | 4920566 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

It's sort of well meant that you hope they get their just desserts in some after-life but god could fix this now with his omnipotemt power by just removing their sex drive. All that suffering could just vanish instantly. It never does. Problem with deferring the problem to god and an after-life is the comfort it provides in not acting on our own terms.Your sniper rifle idea is a beauty and is unfortunately what it is going to take to stop this sort of shit happening. No-one innocent is killed if they are taken out in the act of procurring their victims.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:06 | 4919022 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

I used to own a bar.  I discovered one of my competitors was a registerd sex offender in the USA.  I used to patron his place before I got my bar and upon reflection after seeing and hearing him in action it made sense.

I told an invester about it.  He replied 'I dont care, I'll still give him business.'

I am a father, the invester wasn't.

I couldn't believe it.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:19 | 4919067 Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

Yeah....and here's why...

http://bit.ly/Jzfdi2                                                                                

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niuO6u-tL7c                                                                                            

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:39 | 4919116 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

The U.S. is trafficking in children for sex right now.

Representative Jim Bridenstine (R., Okla.)was too pussy to walk through the door.  

'HHS Bars Congressman from Seeing Immigrant Children'

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:39 | 4919117 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Did someone just "slog" over from hat4uk?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:48 | 4918955 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

good, that means the base is set and there's nowhere to go but up

/sarc

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:52 | 4918968 overexposed
overexposed's picture

Who could've known that Birinyi's Ruler was no joke?  Dunno about y'all, but I'm definitely laughing.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:52 | 4918971 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  RUT down <> DOW, S&P up, then reverse tomorrow. 

  "Like the sands through an hourglass, these are the days of our lives."

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:54 | 4918978 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Open up that 401K/IRA statement and enjoy it while you can.

Kind of like that Lottery ticket that is going to hit next draw.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 15:59 | 4918995 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

"Stawk prices never drop," my realtor says.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:09 | 4919030 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Interesting take on bubbles and measures of overvaluation by Doug Noland over at The Prudent Bear.  As history has shown, things can get more "overvalued" than one would expect, but the merry-go-round will eventually slow down considerably.  http://www.prudentbear.com/2014/06/no-bubble.html#.U7DSrih8vzI

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:11 | 4919042 Rocket De Stock
Rocket De Stock's picture

You poor souls.

Bulls sound "exactly as The Fed would have you sound" - convinced this will never end / correct.

I love how every "arm chair trader / investor" here just keeps saying the same thing....BUY! MOAR! MOAR!

 

Sheep always make the same sound.

You'll never learn another language......let alone leave your own backyard.

 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:17 | 4919058 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Maserati billboards, many 20 somethings in Maserati's whizzing by, $100K plus auto dealers  expanding.

Never have seen anything like this.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:19 | 4919064 Jethro
Jethro's picture

....Thanks Obama.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:21 | 4919072 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Bet $10 that the dow hits 17,000 right before 4th of July....

Honor, Integrity, and RIGGED

 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:38 | 4919109 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Never bet a round $10 or $50 on anything , Mr. Anderson . It is extremely unlucky.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:33 | 4919099 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

this time is different

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:57 | 4919166 fiboman
fiboman's picture

Bullish!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:16 | 4919231 starman
starman's picture

You meant to say over manipulated?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:42 | 4919312 mummster
mummster's picture

p/cf   Price to Cash Flow says it all

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 19:18 | 4919584 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

When this one blows, the dollar goes too, we'll all be 3rd worlded overnite.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 21:36 | 4919947 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

Should those S&P Index numbers be adjusted for inflation?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 02:47 | 4920564 damicol
damicol's picture

Its got nothing to do with inflation.

 

 In its purest form it is an index that measures the size of the US economy and all that invested in it and that economies expected future earnings.

The growth is or should be virtually entirely down to the population growth, efficiency, and  forward earnings discounted to the present.

When the economy in real terms as in for the last 15 years despite a growing population, hence lower wages all round, and weak efficiency gains, due to malinvestment  via stock buybacks, cronyism, fraud corporate kleptocracy, and non stop accounting fraud designed and emanating from the Eccles building, then  one can see that in fact the index, can in fact be in serious bubble territory  well before it reaches a previous peak.

This is a mother fucker, all time shit your pants house exploding bubble the likes that have not been seen since Krakatoa.

Any moron listening to the  whining bollox of the sell side wankers or even within a country fucking mile of one deserves their head getting blown off when this fucker goes bang

 

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 01:11 | 4920443 Lynchie
Lynchie's picture

Who the hell cares? Has anyone done the back test on these valuation metrics and their relationship to future returns?!? I have. Most valuation arguments are empirically nonsense within a given 1-3 year time horizon. But whatever....its cool to be bearish for bearish reasons, I guess.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 17:42 | 4964514 Insatiable
Insatiable's picture

By those metrics, and taking into account bond yields, it looks like there's still a lot moar bubble to blow

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