Surge In Government Job Creation, Most Since August 2008, Offset By Private Jobs Decline Adds To ADP Confusion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Moments after the outlier ADP private payrolls jobs number, the highest since November 2012, was released Gallup offered its own poll-based take on the US jobs market with the release of its monthly US Jobs Creation Index. To some this useful datapoint may explain the ADP-reported surge in hiring, although a more nuanced read simply add to the confusion.

According to the headling job creation index, June saw a +27 print, the same as May, and tying the highest score of job creation in the six year history of the index. Here is how the index measures "job creation":

Gallup's Job Creation Index is a measure of net hiring activity in the U.S., with the monthly average based on a nationally representative sample of more than 16,000 full- and part-time workers in June. As was the case in May, June's +27 index score is based on 40% of employees saying their employer is hiring workers and expanding the size of its workforce and 13% saying their employer is letting workers go and reducing the size of its workforce. Another 41% report no change in staffing.

This is what the index has looked like since inception:

So on the surface this is great news, and corroborates the ADP print, further laying the case for a consensus beating NFP print tomorrow.

However, Gallup also reported the components of the broader Index: namely non-government, or private jobs - those allegedly tracked by ADP - as well as government workers. This is what Gallup reported:

The Job Creation Index score among government workers increased four points from May, resulting in a net hiring score of +18 for June. This score is the highest since the +16 in August 2008, when Gallup first began to measure government employment. The index score increased in June among federal, state, and local government workers, though state and local government workers continue to report a more positive hiring situation than do federal workers.

What about non-government workers? The Job Creation Index score among nongovernment workers registered at +28 for June, a decline from the 29 registered in May.

And visually:

In other words, job creation in the US was scorching hot in June.... among government workers. Meanwhile the private job arena actually posted a relative decline in hiring intentions, which clearly conflicts with what ADP reported was a surge in private job additions in June. Gallup's own conclusion: "After five months of U.S. workers reporting increased hiring at their workplaces, June's index score maintained the level from May. June's score could represent a brief halt in the consistent increases in the index so far in 2014, but it could also signal that job creation perceptions are leveling off after a five-month period of progress for the job market."

So what does this conflicting data mean? Simple: the BLS random number generator will be busy today (supposedly Yellen will know the NFP print when she speaks today at 11 am) ahead of its public dissemination tomorrow.

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Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:49 | 4917466 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Always expect more people on the government (taxpayer) tab in an election year.

Same as it ever was.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:55 | 4917503 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

level 1 job: working for the bank that lends the money into existence

level 2 job: working for the gov or the corp that borrowed the money into existence

level 3 job: providing goods and services to the level-2 entity

 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:02 | 4917533 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

"I'd rather have a cadre in a village than a battalion in the field."  --  Ho Chi Minh

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 11:19 | 4917807 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

That's right.

New hires for all the new ammo.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:20 | 4917610 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

I still do not get how employment went up while the economy was contracting at a 2.9% rate. When has that ever happened before? If true, and if the contraction cpntinues, the correction in employment will be brutal.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:21 | 4917613 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Are these surveys of "anticipated" hires and fires actually just measuring the effectiveness of hopium? They simply seem to be using anything positive as a ramp and anything negative as inconclusive.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:47 | 4917693 666
666's picture

Does my new EBT card mean I've been hired by the gubmint? Yay!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 11:43 | 4917900 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Of course since the chart above clearly shows the opposite, that government is NOT hiring much, well, who cares?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:48 | 4917469 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Quick, hire more before the November election! Libtards want to win big.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:49 | 4917474 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Must be more of that "going forward without Congress" stuff again. Who needs Democracy?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:55 | 4917498 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

"Going forward without Congress" isn't that hard to do. Unless you're actively walking backwards you are going forward compared to Congress.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:58 | 4917512 SaracenSam
SaracenSam's picture

That implies Congress cares about us cockroaches. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:50 | 4917479 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Well we've seen a lot of government-contracted paving going on in June.  Nothing says recovery like police detail orange cones, and dudes holding up SLOW signs.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:13 | 4917577 XitSam
XitSam's picture

There are as many shovel ready jobs as government will pay for.

All blessings upon the Wise and Great Obama, Giver of Jobs, Protector of Wall Street, Printer Extrodinaire of the Currency, Accumulator of Executive Power, Maintainer of the List of Killing, Prosecutor of His Enemies, Creator of Needed Laws, Droner of the Weak and Holder of the Prize of Peace!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:51 | 4917482 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

its all M. O. P. E.

management of PERSPECTIVES economics...
aka - LIES.............

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:51 | 4917488 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

all employment numbers now report combined - hides the reality of how blotus the goobamunt really is

 

fat goobamunt means higher taxes are on the way

 

hopey changey Barry strikes again

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:53 | 4917494 moonman
moonman's picture

What the fuck happened to sequester?

The world was going to stop rotating or spin off it's fucking axis. Veterans were getting tossed out of the national monuments due to that shitshow.

Now they are increasing employees?

 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:58 | 4917510 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sequester... Lol...... all they did is slow the rate of spending. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:45 | 4917685 moonman
moonman's picture

hiring more employees is exactly the way we slowed spending at my job

 

Sent from Moonman's Iphone at unemployment office

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 12:13 | 4918012 falconflight
falconflight's picture

the sequester legislation was all but repealed after the partial gov't shutdown.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 09:56 | 4917504 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

How do I get me one of those gubermint jobs? Once old Yeller drives all returns to zero, I'm going to need a new 'job'. 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:15 | 4917586 XitSam
XitSam's picture

It's an exclusive club and you ain't in it!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:02 | 4917529 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Never expect a true answer from this administration and you will not be disapointed.  This economy is a joke by any measure of history!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:04 | 4917536 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

We're going to war. "That will mop up labor liquidity."

Poroshenko is no "poor old shenko." This guy is a Billy Bad Ass and he's recruiting for manpower and he's getting it from an unemployed and pissed "West."

Same holds true for Iraq and if a move is made to secure Libya that as well.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:04 | 4917541 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

who needs a job?

my co-worker's sister makes $63 /hr on the internet . She has been out of work for 6 months but last month her income was $13421 just working on the internet for a few hours

oh fuck it all......

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:05 | 4917544 Orwell was right
Orwell was right's picture

Nothing new to report in the ongoinglies to prop up the fake recovery....so going off topic...What gives with the huge ugly ads that now appear between an article and the responses??   That crap looks terrible and  (/sarc)  disrupts the otherwise perfect harmony of ZeroHedge.     Are they Tyler's having trouble paying bills???

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:46 | 4917688 moonman
moonman's picture

and they are immune to Adblock plus

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 13:00 | 4918209 ImReady
ImReady's picture

You can block a component with adblock plus also 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 13:01 | 4918211 ImReady
ImReady's picture

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:14 | 4917581 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

This is like calculating the birth rate based on whether or not you are planning to try to get pregnant.

 

 

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:14 | 4917584 SMC
SMC's picture

More government parasites and vermin feasting on disease, decay, and death.

Just when you think the regime can not go any lower...

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/07/02/medical-staff-warned-keep-quie...

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:34 | 4917657 Nevsky
Nevsky's picture

What happens when parasites outnumber the host?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 11:42 | 4917894 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Thats the perfect analogy, but a parasite has its symbiotic relationship mantra ready to go for you.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 12:12 | 4918002 falconflight
falconflight's picture

You get a 2014 Amerika in your face.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:39 | 4917672 FrankDieter
FrankDieter's picture

more jobs at McDonald, that's good ?

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:41 | 4917677 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Excellent!!!...

New government higherings on top of bloated IC and Defense budgets 30 years past, present and future with no commercial sector jobs to pay for it anymore!!!!!

To the moon Alice!!!! To the moon!!!!!

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 12:11 | 4917999 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Gov't jobs and disability awards are the real picker-uppers!

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