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June Payrolls Surge 288K, Above Expectations, Unemployment Rate Tumbles To 6.1%

Tyler Durden's picture


For once the ADP was actually spot on: in June the US economy added 288K nonfarm payrolls, far above the 215K expected, and above the upward revised 224K from June. Further, May jobs were revised from 282K to 204K. This was the fifth consecutive month of job gains over 200K. The unemployment rate tumbled to 6.1%, well below the 6.3% expected. The brth/death adjustment added 121K jobs, compared to 205K previously, and a total of 452K so far in 2014.

Private Payrolls rose 262K, above the 215K expected. Average hourly earnings rose as expected 0.2% from June and 2.0% from a year ago, marginally higher than the 1.9% expected. Finally the weekly hours worked for all employees was 34.5%, same as expected and the same as last month.


But perhaps far more importantly, average weekly earnings rose just 2.0% Y/Y, down from 2.1% in May, and effectively declining once again on a real basis, which means that for three months in a row now US workers have seen their wages drop adjusted for inflation.

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 288,000 in June. Over the past 3 months, job growth has averaged 272,000 per month. In June, employment growth was widespread,  led by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, food services and  drinking places, and health care. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services rose by 67,000 in June and had averaged 53,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In June, employment within the industry increased in management and technical consulting services (+8,000),  architectural and engineering services (+7,000), and computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment continued to trend up in temporary help  services.

Retail trade employment increased by 40,000 in June. Over the prior 12 months, employment in this industry had grown by an average of 26,000 per month. In June, job growth in the industry occurred in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+12,000), building material and garden supply stores (+8,000), and electronics and appliance stores (+7,000).

Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 33,000 in June and has increased by 314,000 over the past year.

Health care employment increased by 21,000 in June, about in line with the prior 12-month average gain of 18,000 per month. Within health care, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+13,000) and in nursing and residential care facilities (+6,000).
Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 17,000 in June. Over the prior 12 months, this industry had added an average of 11,000 jobs per month. In June, couriers and messengers added 6,000 jobs.

Financial activities added 17,000 jobs in June, with a gain of 9,000 in insurance carriers and related activities. Employment in real estate and rental and leasing continued to trend up in June (+9,000). Financial activities had added an average of 5,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

Manufacturing added 16,000 jobs in June, with all of the increase in durable goods manufacturing. Within durable goods, employment increased in motor vehicles and parts (+6,000) and in computer and peripheral equipment (+3,000).

Wholesale trade added 15,000 jobs over the month and has added 140,000 jobs over the year.

Employment changed little over the month in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, information, and government. 


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Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:36 | 4920949 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture


birth/death? anyone?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:40 | 4920971 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Does not matter.  All bull shit anyways.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:50 | 4921005 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Maybe the NSA should break in and interrupt ALL the calls it monitors and ask "Are you working?"

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:52 | 4921016 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Green shoots...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:54 | 4921022 economics9698
economics9698's picture

When there is inflation it makes it cheaper to hire…in the short run.  

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:57 | 4921037 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Everything is being manipulated into place for raising interest rates.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:15 | 4921083 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Bingo!!  Fed must do all it can now to save the U.S. dollar from becoming worthless as it ceases to be the world currency.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:16 | 4921089 RevRex
RevRex's picture

I'm calling bullshit, just like every other economic indicator during the Obowelmovement

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:31 | 4921129 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I had an Obowelmovement earlier.

The explosive diarrhea nearly lifted me of the toilet seat.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:53 | 4921017 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

They want the sheeple to spend, spend, spend this summer.  These numbers will be revised down to equal expectations in a couple of months.  I believe the same thing was done last year but I am too lazy to look up the reports from September.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 18:28 | 4925619 Stalkedbyhackers01
Stalkedbyhackers01's picture

Hi Ignatius it is your favorite person. I'm curious where is the site you people are going pertaining to me? Ya I'm that guy. I'm just wondering where the hackers posted it all.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:59 | 4921043 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

unwashedmass, the birth/death adjustment is a calculation by the BLS, estimating the number of new jobs created by new businesses (birth), versus the number of jobs destroyed by businesses closing (death).

IMO, the numbers are a complete fabrication, and often are responsible for more than half (as was the case this month) or almost all (last month) of total job "growth."

I now present my new version of the Lord's Prayer, updated as the "Yellen Shriek:"

Our fiat,

Which art in dollars,

hollow be thy worth.

Thy stocks go up,

thy vix be down

on CBOE as it is on Wall Street.

Give plebes this day their daily crumb of bread

and deliver us thy dividends,

as we distribute to the one percent.

And lead us not into recession,

but deliver us more POMO,

for the kingdom and the power.

and the glory resides at the Fed.


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:13 | 4921078 thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:15 | 4921084 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Birth death and the other adjustments are completely controlled by .GOV and are how you get a glimpse behind the curtain. The translation of today's number is "No QE for you!". At least not until the crash brings it back, temporarily, like they temporarily suspended the gold standard.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:32 | 4921137 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

It won't be long when so many people drop out of the work force and aren't being counted that we'll have 0.0% unemployment. Ya gotta love common core math and the way it has helped the BLS.


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:36 | 4920950 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

Time to end QE, then!  No more.  Finis.  


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:39 | 4920963 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture



Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:37 | 4920952 katchum
katchum's picture

I challenge you to put a negative spin on that...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:38 | 4920966 babylon15
babylon15's picture

I can create a few jobs too if you let me borrow $4 trillion at 0%.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:56 | 4921036 economics9698
economics9698's picture

At the onset of inflation people want to buy stuff now instead of later.  

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:43 | 4920984 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Angling for a network job, are ya?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:48 | 4921001 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Ive heard enough, Id say he is qualified for CNBS. Primetime, bitches

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 18:29 | 4925622 Stalkedbyhackers01
Stalkedbyhackers01's picture

Indeed I am Ignatius. Funny how stuff I type on my own computer ends up being read by others funny how that works. You're one of those who like to watch, mind linking me the site where all the data mined info is?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:46 | 4920995 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

What is with these people coming out of the wood work?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:39 | 4921178 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Are you trying to impune cockroaches and rodents?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:52 | 4921012 centerline
centerline's picture

You need to look at the bigger picture there numnut.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:54 | 4921025 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Challenge accepted.

This will put pressure on the Fed to hasten the pace of tapering and possibly move up the timeframe for an interest rate increase.  Which could be VERY bad for the markets.  

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:07 | 4921056 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The fed will continue to manipulate employment and inflation data, so that it can raise interest rates and thereby purposefully crash the markets and take the blame for it, claiming excessive speculation exacerbated their policy.  In this way the fed will reassert their power over the economy in the public conciousness for the foreseeable future, while pouring ever more lucre into banster coffers.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:22 | 4921104 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You think the Fed will "take the blame" for a crash (whether they caused it or not)?  I doubt that very seriously.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:24 | 4921111 katchum
katchum's picture

They might even start increasing interest rates, because we know that the employment to population ratio is correlated to the interest rates and it's improving. You shouldn't be afraid of rate hikes.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:57 | 4921038 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

challenge accepted...

It's all manipulated and full of lies, spin, and "mope".

MOPE: Management of Perspective Economics. The foolish idea that if The Fed and the media create the image of growth and the belief that things are getting better, then the economy will actually grow and things will actually get better.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:23 | 4921106 Wait What
Wait What's picture

the Fed believes in the law of attraction (positive thinking can create life-changing results), which is probably more scientific than the idiotic 'economic laws' it uses to guide its decisions.

"if you believe hard enough, anything you want will happen"

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:14 | 4921070 drchris
drchris's picture

QE is $65,000,000,000 a month. That means that each month you could hire 1.3 million people at $50k a year. In other words, employment has to increase by 1.3 million jobs a month to keep pace with the Fed's balance sheet.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 10:21 | 4921336 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

yeah...and from 2009 until something like 2015 or 2016, the U.S. needed to add minimum 250,000 REAL jobs per month, every single month in order to get out of the shitter from the collapse of 2008.

That's 250,000 per month for somewhere around 84 to 96 months straight! 

Has that been achieved for real even a handful of months total in the last 60 months? 


Game over for U.S.  It's not happening because they don't want it to happen.  They don't want actual, meaniful, manufacuring-type job growth.

They are purposfully deindustrializing America and moving everything offshore while they also purposely collapse our monetary system.  All for the great reset and the move to a fully militarized, authoritarian America plunged into chaos to bring in the NWO rulers.

It's going to take a very bloody fight to ever have a slight chance of getting outta this mess. 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:37 | 4920953 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

SPY 2000 today. get your bud light and bubba burgers, it's party time.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:41 | 4920960 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

not in bizarro world it isn't. from wiki: Is big crime to make anything perfect on Bizarro World!" In one episode, for example, a salesman is doing a brisk trade selling Bizarro bonds: "Guaranteed to lose money for you"...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:52 | 4921014 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

They're called JGBs.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:37 | 4920954 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bernoulli ftw

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:37 | 4920955 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

@ Tyler

 May jobs were revised from 282K to 204K


should be 304K

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:38 | 4920959 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

I know....get so used to these 2's that a BS 3 throws everyone off.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:38 | 4920958 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Let the circus begin!

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:55 | 4921032 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Not my circus, not my monkeys....

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:38 | 4920961 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Nice headline for the MSM as Johnny Lunchbucket buys his hot dogs on the way home. 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:39 | 4920962 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Taper on. Look at the 10 year!

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:05 | 4921062 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

that's what they wanted...something over 2.65 or so.  And bingo...they always get what they want.  For now...but those days may be coming to an end one day soon enough.

Once again as clockwork the usual 8am smash in PM's occurs.  But notice the effects these days last only minutes rather than hours and days.  Paper silver has rebounded nicely back above 21 already.

Personally, I'd like to see one more prolonged smash down under 20 so we can all scoop up another big dip opportunity.  But the rebounds just seem to be too strong these days to make their attacks last very long.  They would need successive days for about a week or more of constant monkey hammering to get it back into the high 19's.

Keep some of your dry powder at the ready, bitchez.  There still may be one more nice BTFD opportunity for phyzz before the end of July.  Then it may be off to the races to 25 before we see another extended pull-back into the 21's again for the next phyzz buying opportunity. 

They'll be tightly managing the incline from there on out as best as they can until we break back into the 40's next year.  The bull should be on a rampage by then and nearly impossible to control at that point.


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:41 | 4920965 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Unemployment at only 6.1%!!!

These are the good times, boys.  I'll make it a point to share this statistic with the 80% of unemployed college grads, class of '14.


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:41 | 4920980 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Yep, these are the salad days. Except salad now costs $4 for an 8 oz bag.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:15 | 4921086 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Yup.  This is freakin' GREAT news.  For all practical purposes, 6.1% is basically FULL employment (or close enough).

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:39 | 4920968 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Exactly what the terroist needed to get his poll numbers up!

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:39 | 4920969 SoDamnMad
SoDamnMad's picture

Revision in 3 ... 2... No, better  Friday after the market closes on Page 9

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:44 | 4920972 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

6.1% really?  Does anyone believe these numbers? But as long as gold and silver hammered, job well done Yellen.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:40 | 4920974 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Zandy looks like he just fucked the prom queen on cnbc. What a DB

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:46 | 4920993 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i'm pretty sure he always had his eye on the prom king

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:17 | 4921090 krispkritter
Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:54 | 4921023 Bosch
Bosch's picture


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:40 | 4920976 neuronius
neuronius's picture

Mission Accomplished!

there, I said it.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:42 | 4920982 youngman
youngman's picture

Yep..its time to raise the rates....lets go your job...that is if these numbers are to be believed

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:44 | 4920989 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

hahah yeah right, they should rasise rates if things are soo good


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:43 | 4920986 replaceme
replaceme's picture

#MissionAccomplished.  So they can end QE, right?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:47 | 4920996 buzzsaw99
Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:47 | 4921000 d edwards
d edwards's picture

wadda buncha bullshit!

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:45 | 4920990 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

imaginary numbers go up or down, giving the markets news to react to. a few more poor souls wake up and say that can't be right, my cousins just got layed off, uncle mike can't find work..why am I and my family not benefiting ?? where are these jobs?...of course if your one of these poor souls, you have no equity to invest so fuck off.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:46 | 4920992 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

love this economy. Everybody is doing great and if you're not then obviously you have a problem. Gotta love it.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:46 | 4920998 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

When they revise the numbers it will be a hurricane downturn.


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:48 | 4921003 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

   There was no chance they were allowing people to gather at BBQs on a long holiday weekend and discuss how expensive things are and how atrocious the economy is truly. 

Anyone else notice the smack in Oil the past we hours down to 103...They are in the lying stage when it comes to data now that it cannot be here is a 121K Borth Death Model...poof..presto = 6.1%?

  You better believe they are running this motherfucker green today before the 4th of July.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:56 | 4921019 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

There will be a 4th of a july one day when unemployemnt is 0% and the dow is 50,000 but people will still "discuss how expensive things are and how atrocious the economy is truly."   

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:59 | 4921044 Racer
Racer's picture

The way they manipulate the figures, one day they will report a negative unemployment rate!

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:49 | 4921004 Racer
Racer's picture

Only the machines believe these fake figures, but they are the only ones in this fake 'market' now

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:52 | 4921013 Harry Dong
Harry Dong's picture

I can appreciate that my employees only work 34.5% of the time...yup, that's about right. 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:54 | 4921024 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Yet the Dems keep begging the Repubs to extend unemployment insurance to infinity.  Hmmm.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:54 | 4921026 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Watch the interest rates. If the FED moves too slow things could get out of control very fast.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:55 | 4921030 Bosch
Bosch's picture

I was waiting for DOW 17,000 & 2,000 S&P to sell the final 25% I left invested for the sheep to push higher for me, today the day?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:56 | 4921035 NegativelyBiase...
NegativelyBiasedCredulity's picture

Lavorgna running around naked.... gooooooaaaaaaalllllll!!!!!!

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 08:58 | 4921042 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Negative spin?  I seem to recall the U.S. requiring approx. 400K+ jobs / month for true growth.


These numbers are essentially pumped up to meet an expectation set by our executive branch of govt. and walstreet.  There's another article here on ZH describing the participation rate, etc. - that's a more true indicator of the health of our country... yeah, good times.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:00 | 4921048 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

9 month period Oct 2013 - Jun 2014


Job Creation: 2.1 million

National Debt Creation: $894 billion

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:00 | 4921049 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

probably covers the number of illegals comming into the country last month.  Inflation running hot, close to full employment.  No more QE for you.....

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:03 | 4921055 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Pretty much everyone working part-time to just get by while inflation is eating everyone alive slowly.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:05 | 4921061 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

I believe unemployment is at 6.1%.
Yeah. Sure. I believe it.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:18 | 4921091 Wait What
Wait What's picture

U-6 is still @ 12%. funny how no one mentions that rate of unemployment.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:12 | 4921077 Guitarbill
Guitarbill's picture

1 million people booted off of unemployment in january would explain the rise in people looking and finding jobs. It does not mean the economy is booming or about to take off. Boot them off in january, see a rise in job participation just in time for elections in the fall.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:13 | 4921081 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

So it's as easy to find a job now as it was in June 2003.  Sure.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:14 | 4921082 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Looks like some pretty good jobs data. Hopefully it doesn't crash the stock market.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:27 | 4921119 tnquake
tnquake's picture

Practicing for my next job opportunity!

Can I "Supersize" that for you?


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:28 | 4921123 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Cramer, employment, for God's sake, is NOT a leading indicator for the fucking stock market!  Go back and invest at employment rate highs vs lows and let me know when you make money.  Invest in 1982 or 1999?  Invest in 2007 or 2009?  All in in 2014???  Really???  And, BTW, since things are so fucking great, let's immediately immediately set FFR at historical average.  What is that, around 4%.  Good fucking luck with that!!!

Yes, maybe we can manipulate and artificially "grow" this POS economy some more.  More student loans, more sub-prime, more ZIRP, more government guarantees, more defecits, more government fleet vehicle sales, more Blackhawk helicopters, more credit card debt just to pay for food and other daily expenses, more buybacks.  But, I could literally argue very successfully that the PE in March 2000 of around 25 was actually a better deal than PE 15 today.  Can you imagine what EPS would have been with $10 trillion pumped into the economy over the prior 7 years?  Running $500 billion deficits, mortgages at 4%, not 8%?  Money market earning 7%, not .1%.  LOL

Radio Shack is in better shape than the US economy right now.  Give them a printing press and watch as they blow the doors off their numbers.  Stocks will fall.  10 YR UST going to give JGB's a run for their money when the dust clears.


Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:33 | 4921141 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

with 6.1% unemployment, food stamp useage must be going through the roof


off to my Starbucks barista interview - would you like a regular or non-fat latte - just practicing

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:33 | 4921145 falak pema
falak pema's picture

ZH will have to change its optical glasses.

The world is on a ROLL and its not just Wall Street. Its the Economia buddies....or so says the statistical music.

Can't argue with facts ! 

The ball is in your court Tylers! 

Who lies and who flies dung? 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:59 | 4921264 ilovemilken
ilovemilken's picture

The ZH portfolio is hurting.  However that roll can end in the blink of an eye if interest rates rise too quickly.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 09:58 | 4921258 ilovemilken
ilovemilken's picture

How will the FED frame this negatively so they can keep interest rates at zero forever?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 10:23 | 4921347 Ancient Landmark
Ancient Landmark's picture

Who writes this crap?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 10:47 | 4921438 khaproperty
khaproperty's picture

275.000 of new jobs were part-time-jobs - as survey also tells.

Not so good as administration wants it to be.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 10:55 | 4921454 scubapro
scubapro's picture


most jobs 'being created'  are the division of one f/t job who got some overtime sometimes, into two part time jobs where neither person gets benefits or over-time. 


in a healthy labor market recovery, the unemployment rate actually goes back up b/c people re-enter the workforce and/or 'start looking' so they get counted again.   the get back into the count b/c they see or hear of others getting a job and then go looking. 

the only stat, that exists in real terms via payroll deduction, is the aggregate $ earned in totality vs the working age population.  yet this stat isnt publicly available.    the closest you can get is to take avg hourly pay  times total hours worked. looking at that stat, it is very  slight upward slope--but well under the rate of either inflation or population growth.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 10:56 | 4921457 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture


    JOBS by YELLEN = poverty row!!



Thu, 07/03/2014 - 11:11 | 4921507 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Bills always come due eventually, bichez.  Maybe not for the goobermint, but for the people for sure.  Wait until the sub-inflation income and maxed credit hit the fan.  Anytime now...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 23:17 | 4923819 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

If there anyone that hasn't put it together yet, the reason for this surge is the end of long term unemployment insurance.  As soon as all the here-to-for slackers that lived off unemployment for 99 weeks are back to work, the unemployment data will stop "surprising" to the upside.

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