What Happened The Last 4 Times Stocks Rallied For 23 Quarters?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Does this look sustainable to you? Of course, it's different this time, right?

 

The S&P 500 is in the 23rd quarter of its recovery - and shows a 196% gain.... the last four moves of similar magnitude ended very badly.

 

H/t Geoffrey Batt

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Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:12 | 4923535 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

So we have another 50% to go before we take out the 99/00 ath. Holy bullish.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:18 | 4923554 MrTouchdown
MrTouchdown's picture

Exactly. f0rward!!

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:31 | 4923584 knukles
knukles's picture

This time, that time.
Damn good thing there is time or everything would happen at once.

just a wee bit-o quantum mechanics for ya', lads

get it... wee bit... quantum mechanics... quantum packets... like, small....
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:33 | 4923594 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You forgot ®   Knuks?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:42 | 4923607 knukles
knukles's picture

But there is no forgetting if everything happens at once.  And it would all happen in the now which would never pass.

Gets a bit worm-holeyish
That's why BTW, Frank Lanza's work is gaining such traction and many of the "new" more "modern" physicists are turning away from the ever thicker swamp surrounding the General Theory in favor of a more simple and apparently complete "electronic" universe (electro-magnetic which fits more easily, more logical and harmonious, elegant, within the premises of quantum packets/energy, etc.)  Fascinating stuff

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:04 | 4923646 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I stand corrected. My best to Mrs. Knuks and family on this holiday w/e ;-/

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:33 | 4924336 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Silly boy.  Everything DOES happen at once.  Time doesn't exist...

your friend and self

 

Buddha

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:47 | 4924350 max2205
max2205's picture

Going for 300 400%

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:56 | 4924362 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Can you imagine what some of those earlier peaks would have looked like with todays QE applied???

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 10:16 | 4924484 Loose_Cannon
Loose_Cannon's picture

This time really is different then?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:25 | 4923708 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Knuckles, if you haven't already, check out the work of plasma physicists Wal Thornhill and Anthony Peratt. They have built on the earlier works of Nobel Laureates Hans Alven and Kristian Birkeland. You may find a refreshing perspective to cosmology. Cheers and Happy 4th.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:38 | 4923744 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Drachma

It's the only cosmology that makes any fucking sense. And, the scumbags who inhabit Big Government Science hate it, so that's a plus.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:53 | 4923779 JackT
JackT's picture

It's gotta power thru to at least 300% to soak up all that printing

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:59 | 4923786 remain calm
remain calm's picture

With all the worlds Central Bankers all in we will blow past 300%. BTFATH.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 01:07 | 4923994 NickVegas
NickVegas's picture

Big cosmology, it's a fucking racket. The truth will set us free.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 13:19 | 4924849 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

What you're talking about, Knukles, long predates quantum mechanics. It's actually the old Thomnistic metaphysics. The key concept here is materia signata quantitate. Here's a good introduction:

http://www.anthonyflood.com/wallacewolfgangsmith.htm

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 09:23 | 4924409 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

That's a strange thing to laugh at but I did.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:14 | 4923542 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

<--- Market becomes worthless ala Zimbabwe

<--- Market crashes and "NOBODY SAW THIS COMING!"

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:41 | 4923960 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

<--- Both*

<--- Both*

 

* Market crashes and "NOBODY SAW THIS COMING!"  Then shadow banking or some other BS starts to unwind, the fed fires up the nuclear powered printing presses, and the market becomes worthless ala Zimbabwe.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:57 | 4924369 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Cramer will give us the heads up

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:17 | 4923552 enforcer92677
enforcer92677's picture

Please make this happen SOON!  At least to prove me right to all the jackasses at work that I've been telling the market will crash.  

 

Today two of them stopped by my desk to gloat about the new records being set and how epic their accounts look. As soon as it start to go down they will switch out to cash and jump back in again.

 

I don't want to wish a total loss on anyone,  but they are really deserviing of a good smiting!

 

/end rant

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:51 | 4923624 Bryan
Bryan's picture

I have a friend with the same smug attitude.  The whole "sure there will be corrections... I wish there was a 10% one soon so I can put the rest of my cash in.  But over time, the market has aleays recovered.  Dollar cost average, etc etc".

 

He doesn't listen when I say the market is rigged and running on Fed fumes.  Oh well... one of us will be right.  I hope it's him, but I fear it's me.

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:52 | 4923775 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Fed fumes is exactly right and fumes are explosive.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:25 | 4923930 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

More like running on Yellen farts.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:42 | 4923962 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

EWWWWWWWWWW

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:22 | 4924326 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this

Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks

Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call LA
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any fucking time. Any fucking day.
Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay.

Fret for your figure and
Fret for your latte and
Fret for your hairpiece and
Fret for your lawsuit and
Fret for your prozac and
Fret for your pilot and
Fret for your contract and
Fret for your car.

It's a
Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks

 

TOOL ~Aenema

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:52 | 4924359 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

I keep hearing that phrase - bring on the collapse.  I say it myself.  But, truth is, once it happens, we're all gonna wax nostalgic for these relatively peaceful days when we could just hang around and bitch at TPTB...

Enjoy every day

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 10:30 | 4924500 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I say bring it on for one reason and one reason only:  Quick pain vs long pain.  Let us get the shit over with.  It's not something that I want, but it is inevitable.  Every day that we wait is more people born who will eventually face the suffering.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 10:39 | 4924517 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

'Quick pain vs long pain.  Let us get the shit over with.'

.

Exactly...its inevitable. Our controllers will NOT have a change of heart...otherwise it wouldve happenned 1,000's of years ago.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:15 | 4924313 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

And the Middle East is ground zero for combustion here. Once that Caliphate grabs the lion's share of the oil reserves, bye bye petrodollar and by bye stock market. And next time don't be sure of a recovery either. The stock market has roared back from its 2001 crash and its 2008 crash. The next time could really surprise by just doing down and staying there.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 12:33 | 4924731 spinone
spinone's picture

be careful when the sheep get smug.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 23:56 | 4923890 elephant
elephant's picture

Shorts got crushed (including me).  Longs were right.  End of story.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:43 | 4923963 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It's going to be that way until it's not, and if you're not an insider, you'd best stay out.  Even if you are an insider, you might be fucked.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:11 | 4924246 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

It seems no suggestion of weakness no matter how subtle can exist because it may begin to unravel the already fragile consumer confidence. They don't want to enter the weekend or a holiday with a bad market. While I think the market is way to high and distorted it is difficult to time a top. More on the reason for bears to be cautious in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/bears-have-little-reason-for-conf...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:24 | 4923565 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Everyone's got a chart.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 05:02 | 4924184 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

The most sensible comment I've seen on here in years...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:27 | 4923575 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

When push comes to shove the stock market will be sacrificed. In fact the government could use this next market collapse to expand on MyRA. Why risk money in the stock market people? Move it all to MyRA. Government can take over more businesses, but permanently this time.

The financial services industry has been very supportive of the Fed and making money hand over fist now but will come to regret it. Why put your money with Wall Street where it's risking and those people are thieves anyways? More money in the MyRA. Sorry financial advisors and money managers, no need for you anymore the government got this. Go fight for a min wage job...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:29 | 4923580 geotrader
geotrader's picture

The trend is your friend.

 

</sarc>

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:32 | 4923589 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I have to pull patches of hair out of my skull to  reaffirm  I'm not living in the matrex.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:48 | 4923614 knukles
knukles's picture

I sometimes feel sorry for small kids going through radiation therapy and loose their hair.  Long ago my son had dreadlocks and we were figuring the other night that we should have saved them instead of throwing them away.  Could a given them to one of those kids to glue on his head so he could pull his hair out.  Then I mentioned that they might have had bugs and scabies and the like.  And my son pointed out that bugs and scabies are nothing to worry about when you're dying of cancer and want some hair to pull out.
Sounded good to me.
Interesting you bring that up.

Must be karma.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:55 | 4923630 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I hear ya Knuks. What ever happened to " BOOTS" on the ground?

   Talk is cheap Knuks...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 23:23 | 4923828 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

WTF? 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 23:30 | 4923842 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

WTF > bitch

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:45 | 4923967 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It's just Knucks, serving up levity to a fucked up situation one post at a time.  Learn it.  Love it.  Roll with it.  Laugh while you can.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:58 | 4923979 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I like Penguins.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 03:31 | 4924110 WeNeedaRealGovt
WeNeedaRealGovt's picture

You peopple really are morons

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 03:47 | 4924124 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Spellmuch?

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 05:18 | 4924187 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

LUL :)

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:38 | 4923602 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

I'll bite.

Yes this time it's different cuz half the increase is crypto inflation and QE effects, so we're not really in the danger zone yet.  The actual economy (anybody remember that?) hasn't even recovered yet, much less overheated.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:57 | 4924292 Aaaarghh
Aaaarghh's picture

that assumes that its the overheating of the economy that causes the 'crash'. Dangers are ALL around for the markets and drowning in liquidity won't fix everything.

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