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What Happened The Last 4 Times Stocks Rallied For 23 Quarters?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Does this look sustainable to you? Of course, it's different this time, right?

 

The S&P 500 is in the 23rd quarter of its recovery - and shows a 196% gain.... the last four moves of similar magnitude ended very badly.

 

H/t Geoffrey Batt

 

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Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:12 | 4923535 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

So we have another 50% to go before we take out the 99/00 ath. Holy bullish.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:18 | 4923554 MrTouchdown
MrTouchdown's picture

Exactly. f0rward!!

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:31 | 4923584 knukles
knukles's picture

This time, that time.
Damn good thing there is time or everything would happen at once.

just a wee bit-o quantum mechanics for ya', lads

get it... wee bit... quantum mechanics... quantum packets... like, small....
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:33 | 4923594 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You forgot ®   Knuks?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:42 | 4923607 knukles
knukles's picture

But there is no forgetting if everything happens at once.  And it would all happen in the now which would never pass.

Gets a bit worm-holeyish
That's why BTW, Frank Lanza's work is gaining such traction and many of the "new" more "modern" physicists are turning away from the ever thicker swamp surrounding the General Theory in favor of a more simple and apparently complete "electronic" universe (electro-magnetic which fits more easily, more logical and harmonious, elegant, within the premises of quantum packets/energy, etc.)  Fascinating stuff

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:04 | 4923646 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I stand corrected. My best to Mrs. Knuks and family on this holiday w/e ;-/

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:33 | 4924336 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Silly boy.  Everything DOES happen at once.  Time doesn't exist...

your friend and self

 

Buddha

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:47 | 4924350 max2205
max2205's picture

Going for 300 400%

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:56 | 4924362 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Can you imagine what some of those earlier peaks would have looked like with todays QE applied???

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 10:16 | 4924484 Loose_Cannon
Loose_Cannon's picture

This time really is different then?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:25 | 4923708 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Knuckles, if you haven't already, check out the work of plasma physicists Wal Thornhill and Anthony Peratt. They have built on the earlier works of Nobel Laureates Hans Alven and Kristian Birkeland. You may find a refreshing perspective to cosmology. Cheers and Happy 4th.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:38 | 4923744 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Drachma

It's the only cosmology that makes any fucking sense. And, the scumbags who inhabit Big Government Science hate it, so that's a plus.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:53 | 4923779 JackT
JackT's picture

It's gotta power thru to at least 300% to soak up all that printing

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:59 | 4923786 remain calm
remain calm's picture

With all the worlds Central Bankers all in we will blow past 300%. BTFATH.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 01:07 | 4923994 NickVegas
NickVegas's picture

Big cosmology, it's a fucking racket. The truth will set us free.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 13:19 | 4924849 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

What you're talking about, Knukles, long predates quantum mechanics. It's actually the old Thomnistic metaphysics. The key concept here is materia signata quantitate. Here's a good introduction:

http://www.anthonyflood.com/wallacewolfgangsmith.htm

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 09:23 | 4924409 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

That's a strange thing to laugh at but I did.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:14 | 4923542 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

<--- Market becomes worthless ala Zimbabwe

<--- Market crashes and "NOBODY SAW THIS COMING!"

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:41 | 4923960 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

<--- Both*

<--- Both*

 

* Market crashes and "NOBODY SAW THIS COMING!"  Then shadow banking or some other BS starts to unwind, the fed fires up the nuclear powered printing presses, and the market becomes worthless ala Zimbabwe.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:57 | 4924369 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Cramer will give us the heads up

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:17 | 4923552 enforcer92677
enforcer92677's picture

Please make this happen SOON!  At least to prove me right to all the jackasses at work that I've been telling the market will crash.  

 

Today two of them stopped by my desk to gloat about the new records being set and how epic their accounts look. As soon as it start to go down they will switch out to cash and jump back in again.

 

I don't want to wish a total loss on anyone,  but they are really deserviing of a good smiting!

 

/end rant

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:51 | 4923624 Bryan
Bryan's picture

I have a friend with the same smug attitude.  The whole "sure there will be corrections... I wish there was a 10% one soon so I can put the rest of my cash in.  But over time, the market has aleays recovered.  Dollar cost average, etc etc".

 

He doesn't listen when I say the market is rigged and running on Fed fumes.  Oh well... one of us will be right.  I hope it's him, but I fear it's me.

 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:52 | 4923775 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Fed fumes is exactly right and fumes are explosive.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:25 | 4923930 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

More like running on Yellen farts.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:42 | 4923962 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

EWWWWWWWWWW

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:22 | 4924326 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this

Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks

Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call LA
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any fucking time. Any fucking day.
Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay.

Fret for your figure and
Fret for your latte and
Fret for your hairpiece and
Fret for your lawsuit and
Fret for your prozac and
Fret for your pilot and
Fret for your contract and
Fret for your car.

It's a
Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks

 

TOOL ~Aenema

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:52 | 4924359 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

I keep hearing that phrase - bring on the collapse.  I say it myself.  But, truth is, once it happens, we're all gonna wax nostalgic for these relatively peaceful days when we could just hang around and bitch at TPTB...

Enjoy every day

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 10:30 | 4924500 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I say bring it on for one reason and one reason only:  Quick pain vs long pain.  Let us get the shit over with.  It's not something that I want, but it is inevitable.  Every day that we wait is more people born who will eventually face the suffering.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 10:39 | 4924517 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

'Quick pain vs long pain.  Let us get the shit over with.'

.

Exactly...its inevitable. Our controllers will NOT have a change of heart...otherwise it wouldve happenned 1,000's of years ago.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:15 | 4924313 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

And the Middle East is ground zero for combustion here. Once that Caliphate grabs the lion's share of the oil reserves, bye bye petrodollar and by bye stock market. And next time don't be sure of a recovery either. The stock market has roared back from its 2001 crash and its 2008 crash. The next time could really surprise by just doing down and staying there.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 12:33 | 4924731 spinone
spinone's picture

be careful when the sheep get smug.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 23:56 | 4923890 elephant
elephant's picture

Shorts got crushed (including me).  Longs were right.  End of story.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:43 | 4923963 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It's going to be that way until it's not, and if you're not an insider, you'd best stay out.  Even if you are an insider, you might be fucked.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:11 | 4924246 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

It seems no suggestion of weakness no matter how subtle can exist because it may begin to unravel the already fragile consumer confidence. They don't want to enter the weekend or a holiday with a bad market. While I think the market is way to high and distorted it is difficult to time a top. More on the reason for bears to be cautious in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/bears-have-little-reason-for-conf...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:24 | 4923565 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Everyone's got a chart.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 05:02 | 4924184 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

The most sensible comment I've seen on here in years...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:27 | 4923575 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

When push comes to shove the stock market will be sacrificed. In fact the government could use this next market collapse to expand on MyRA. Why risk money in the stock market people? Move it all to MyRA. Government can take over more businesses, but permanently this time.

The financial services industry has been very supportive of the Fed and making money hand over fist now but will come to regret it. Why put your money with Wall Street where it's risking and those people are thieves anyways? More money in the MyRA. Sorry financial advisors and money managers, no need for you anymore the government got this. Go fight for a min wage job...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:29 | 4923580 geotrader
geotrader's picture

The trend is your friend.

 

</sarc>

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:32 | 4923589 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I have to pull patches of hair out of my skull to  reaffirm  I'm not living in the matrex.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:48 | 4923614 knukles
knukles's picture

I sometimes feel sorry for small kids going through radiation therapy and loose their hair.  Long ago my son had dreadlocks and we were figuring the other night that we should have saved them instead of throwing them away.  Could a given them to one of those kids to glue on his head so he could pull his hair out.  Then I mentioned that they might have had bugs and scabies and the like.  And my son pointed out that bugs and scabies are nothing to worry about when you're dying of cancer and want some hair to pull out.
Sounded good to me.
Interesting you bring that up.

Must be karma.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:55 | 4923630 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I hear ya Knuks. What ever happened to " BOOTS" on the ground?

   Talk is cheap Knuks...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 23:23 | 4923828 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

WTF? 

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 23:30 | 4923842 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

WTF > bitch

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:45 | 4923967 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It's just Knucks, serving up levity to a fucked up situation one post at a time.  Learn it.  Love it.  Roll with it.  Laugh while you can.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 00:58 | 4923979 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I like Penguins.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 03:31 | 4924110 WeNeedaRealGovt
WeNeedaRealGovt's picture

You peopple really are morons

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 03:47 | 4924124 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Spellmuch?

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 05:18 | 4924187 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

LUL :)

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:38 | 4923602 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

I'll bite.

Yes this time it's different cuz half the increase is crypto inflation and QE effects, so we're not really in the danger zone yet.  The actual economy (anybody remember that?) hasn't even recovered yet, much less overheated.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:57 | 4924292 Aaaarghh
Aaaarghh's picture

that assumes that its the overheating of the economy that causes the 'crash'. Dangers are ALL around for the markets and drowning in liquidity won't fix everything.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:50 | 4923618 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Is there a significance in a 23 quarter rolling window? I'd be interested to see this on a rolling [1...48 or more] quarters to see if there's any significance in any of those windows as well.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:50 | 4923621 order66
order66's picture

The Greater Recession has to happen at some point. Just let it happen and get it over with. The Fed has no choice. Either that or they have to allow the U.S. to default because interest rates will have to rise at some point - even if inflation doesn't.

They are cornered and clueless.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:50 | 4923622 gdpetti
gdpetti's picture

Is this the level of 'blow-off' expected? I remember a story a while back that said that the market had to reach a certain level to hit this usual 'blow-off' point before it would suffer from the pangs of withdrawal. So it looks like we've made it after all? Soon we'll all be living in the basement with Laverne and Shirley. I wonder if that beer plant was called ViX?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:51 | 4923625 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Everyone talks about the Fed. It's wrong, and I agree.

 Look at fuking China bitchez/ The PBoC is twice that expendature Bitchez.

 China is fucked sideways! I want to park my cash<FINRA>China Opaque<> Singapore<Hong Kong> Tiawan?

  The reason $ isn't moving is because we're at the verge of an "Global Reset".

  Can you, for an moment imagine, a complete shutdown of the United States (bankster system?)

   Ships still sail, building contracts and Iron columns still get delivered.  (BANKSTERS)

Sat, 07/05/2014 - 13:04 | 4926720 balanced
balanced's picture

"Ships still sail, building contracts and Iron columns still get delivered."

Maybe. Maybe not. Other than retail/service industry (in other words, cash) businesses, work pretty much stopped in Cyprus when banking (essentially) shut down.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:54 | 4923629 Money_for_Nothing
Money_for_Nothing's picture

How to right size the money supply. Encourage people to invest in stocks. Crash the stock market.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:08 | 4924243 gmak
gmak's picture

You're not far off. The black hole is more likely in the credit market - which is where the majority of asset-based terror events begin. Unfortunately, this will entail an economic reset which will be so much more painful than if it would have happened in 1991, or 2000, or 2008.  Leveraged assets and debt given out at close to zero cost will all fall, like dominos do, once the defaults begin in earnest. They have already started in China with the mess created by rehypothecation of base and precious metals. Acceleration is expected as this encroaches on all the paper assets conjured up like the bucket-carrying mops in the Sorcerer's Apprentice (Disney version).

 

 

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:07 | 4924301 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

And when that reset happens, the powers that be declare an emergency and go to full negative interest rates. They eliminate cash to make this possible, and to make bank runs impossible. Now that is a real black hole. Once you cross the Event Horizon to NIRP, there is no exit. Ever.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:14 | 4923679 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

stocks have reached a permanently high plateau

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:58 | 4924293 Aaaarghh
Aaaarghh's picture

that has been said before..

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:13 | 4923680 starman
starman's picture

As far as Iam concerned there is no more stock market. Thus it can and will do anything its being manipulated to do. Good luck.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:24 | 4923705 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Moar volatility compression today.  I've never seen such a constipated market.  The HFTs must be pulling out their fiber optics cables in frustration.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:29 | 4923716 ScottyB
ScottyB's picture

0% interest rates, 3% dividends. Reverse that and the market reverses.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:31 | 4923725 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Escape velocity.

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:49 | 4923770 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Model Rocketry?

 http://www.estesrockets.com/rockets/

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:49 | 4924278 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I foresee an Ejection Charge failure and then it becomes a Lawn Dart...

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:53 | 4923777 ms8172
ms8172's picture

Why doesn't the chart go up to 6/30/2014....aren't they missing a year?

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 23:16 | 4923818 wossname
wossname's picture

Even Lowly John knew the skinny back in 2009: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo4746XZgw8

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 01:02 | 4923983 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

AND?

 Paging roadside asswiping AnAnonaclown.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 01:12 | 4924000 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

No fucking way this market goes down from now until the 2016 election

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 01:44 | 4924012 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Next week

 But you already knew that ? RETARD

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 02:02 | 4924059 Debugas
Debugas's picture

what is the percentage of stocks owned by indebted holders ? how big are their debts ?

 

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 03:51 | 4924129 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Typical assclown. First of all your question is idiotic. Second of all, hit the books BITCH!

  What part of Tylers endless discussions about LEVERAGE have YOU missed 3X IDIOT ETF!

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 02:43 | 4924085 skilaki69
skilaki69's picture

It's kinda hard telling people I know that things are not as rosy as they seem every time the market makes new highs. 

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 13:31 | 4924879 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

Keep trying; practice makes perfect.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 02:43 | 4924086 skilaki69
skilaki69's picture

It's kinda hard telling people I know that things are not as rosy as they seem every time the market makes new highs. 

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 13:32 | 4924880 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

There you go, that's the spirit!

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 03:02 | 4924091 SemperFudge
SemperFudge's picture

Even all the other spikes don't point almost vertically as it does in this QE induced "boom" market.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 05:32 | 4924193 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Were we at ZIRP last time, with QE endless and daily injections of POMO? Didn't think so...this shit show could go on for a long time. 

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 06:50 | 4924226 J J Pettigrew
J J Pettigrew's picture

The Central Banks are LONG.

The Central Banks have turned the ETFs into annuities....with the same evaluation chart...45 degrees straight up.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:03 | 4924239 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

This time it is different it that the ecomomy is dead flat or down.  What do stock markets around the world have in common with "girls gone wild" the video of college girls on spring break? The answer is both are crazy out of control. We have grown very complacent as money around the world has continued to flow into intangibles and promises.

Currently the market is all a twitter and locked in a "greed and stupidity loop." The loop can be explained as follows, stocks are rising so why get out, not getting out is causing the stocks to rise. When stocks do pullback it is a buying opportunity. Yes, we are indeed experiencing a double down and let it ride mentality. I don't have to explain the greed part. More about this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/06/stock-markets-and-girls-gone-wild...

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:46 | 4924273 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

Each crash we were given an excuse why it happened. In 2001, it was the 9/11 "attacks". What will be the excuse this time?

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:01 | 4924298 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Republicans retake Senate?

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 07:55 | 4924288 intric8
intric8's picture

Dow to 18,000, then "crash" 1,200 points to 16,800 where we were a week ago

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:00 | 4924296 RevRex
RevRex's picture

So the last 4 times this happened we had ZIRP, QE and massive "Belgian" Bond Buying?

 

 

 

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:10 | 4924309 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

The S&P 500 started in 1957.

So why does this chart go bact to 1933?

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:18 | 4924318 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Independence day....

Meet the new boss. You know the rest.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:20 | 4924320 Kina
Kina's picture

Two outcomes....Market crashes or USD crashes.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:24 | 4924327 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The way the economy is acting the market should not be maqking new highs, ugliness lies ahead. I love the way it is always being kicked out a year or two and never going to happen tomorrow. It is as if we can't handle what is coming at us and need more time.

For a long time I have been trying to develop a scenario for a market "super crash" and a reasonable map that would arrive at such a situation. Below is an article looking at how it could happen sooner rather than later.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/flash-crash-on-steroids.html

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 09:33 | 4924417 whidbey-2
whidbey-2's picture

Madamn Legard said to Yellen.  "Janet now is good as any to whip it on them and raise rates smartly" " Maybe Chris, but I think we need something more to push me that far.'  "WHAT? FOR GODS SAKE.... AND where did you get that suit?" "it's my party and Iwill serve tea when I am damned good and ready. Now go home if you think I am not doing it right."  The party is over for a time; you and Mario seem to be gutless, should I say, witless, political hacks.   So they talked all the day never seeing the clock's face until it was too late.......

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 11:15 | 4924571 Sutton
Sutton's picture

When we get a lower quarter over quarter close I'm gonna lay into the bitch. 

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 11:35 | 4924622 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

 23 quarters now takes us back to  4th quarter 2008. That is the next one to drop off and the next quarter will be added. Since the 4th q of 2008 was a blood bath, the market could go up and the measure could still drop. If we continue to rise moderately the measure will still drop as the boom quarters of early 2009 get removed and replaced. Likewise we could trade sideways and this measure of rolling returns would fall rather quickly. This chart is more historical than useful in any manner.

And why 23 quarters? why not 22 or 24? They each tell a slightly different story about where the top may be. In this type of analysis i just use mutual fund 5 year returns. when they get above 20% annually it is time to lighten up.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 13:07 | 4924824 Vin
Vin's picture

And when this happened in the past, was the FED printing a trillion a year in currency?  No.  Everything is different this time, it considerably worse!!

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 14:37 | 4925030 stopthejunk1
stopthejunk1's picture

I disagree. Clearly the Fed has printed plenty of money over the past 100 years, since the dollar has depreciated by 97% since 1912. It'll probably depreciate another 97% this century as well. Business as usual.

Fri, 07/04/2014 - 14:46 | 4924994 stopthejunk1
stopthejunk1's picture

But how many of the other bull markets took place under a decade-long ZIRP regime?

As long as money cannot earn a return elsewhere, it will continue to flow into equities.

Think about all the baby boomers living off of their nest eggs for the next 30-40 years.. Where else are they going to put their money?

Charts are only so useful. You also have to think. One of the things that never changes is that when the pattern is so obvious that everyone sees it, it's probably actually not there.

Here's another pattern to look at: every 40 years, the Dow adds an order of magnitude to its nominal price (not inflation-adjusted.) This has been true since the calculations began in 1896. (Chart: here)

If the pattern continues, we can expect the Dow to be in the 100,000 range by mid-century. That's not even being aggressive. So we're at 17,000 now... if you plan to retire in 20 years, and 130 years of price history tells you that in 20 years the Dow should be at 40,000 - 60,000, that's a 100% - 200% return, versus 0% interest in a bank. Where the hell else are you going to put your money?

Here's my prediction for 2020: Dow 25,000 to 30,000; gold at $600 - $800

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