McClellan Sounds "Alarm" Over Stock Market Drawdowns

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Tom McClellan via NTMarkets,

Alarming Sign in NDX Stocks’ Drawdown

 

Chart In Focus

July 03, 2014

The Nasdaq 100 Index is making new multi-year highs, levels not seen since the weeks just after the 2000 Internet Bubble top.  But it is interesting for us to see that the average component stock in that index is down 7% from its trailing 52-week high. 

And that 7% drawdown number is actually smaller than it has been recently, but it is still not back to the low drawdown reading of 6.0% that we saw in early March, before the Nasdaq 100 stocks got into a patch of trouble.  And the fascinating point is that divergences like this tend to be really important for the long-run picture for stock prices.

This current divergence is not guaranteed to stay with us.  It looks like a genuine divergence now, but it is still possible that we could see a continued rally that takes the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 collectively up closer to the level of their 52-week closing highs, thereby closing the gap on this measure of average drawdown.  But for now, the message is that the average stock making up the Nasdaq 100 Index is not confirming the bullish message of the NDX’s higher price highs. 

A similar message comes from a similar indicator, this time examining the 30 stocks which make up the DJIA. 

DJI Oscillator Positive Index

This one looks at the 30 stocks that make up the DJIA, and checks each one to see if its Price Oscillator is above or below zero.  What we are seeing lately is a declining number of Dow components participating in the uptrend that way, and a drop of this indicator below its 15-day moving average.  This condition also comes as a divergence appears between prices and the indicator.

As with the NDX stocks’ indicator above, the divergence does not absolutely have to persist; the market could just power through it, but that is not usually the way things usually work out.

 

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kliguy38's picture

This is truly shocking....what will we do???? This implies that things may be MANIPULATED???  HUH??? I'm shocked.. truly SHOCKED.....hehehehhe

buzzsaw99's picture

manipulators jacking the market on the cheap.

ot - found this link on drudge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-02/brics-are-morphing-anti-dollar-...

don't know how often zh articles get on there but should be good for traffic.

lemosbrasil's picture

"Volatility smiles to Dow Jones, DAX, FTSE, CAC and MIB-Italy".....There are many, many whispers around Europe and USA that Volatility is not a elf ! Yes....Just see the uptrendline of Dow Jones from last 6 years.....see the diveergence volume.....see  round numbers like 17.000 to Dow Jones and 10.000 to DAX-Germany......see the uptrend line of RSI (Relative Strenght Index) of Dow Jones, absolutely respected in 2007 and broked....now....the same uptrendlne of RSI respected from 2009 until now......soon, it will broke.......

All these messages are here: http://pracompraroupravender.blogspot.com.br/2014/07/a-volatilidade-sorr...

 

 

Quinvarius's picture

So only the most visible stocks, that are part of the most visible inducies, are rising?  Shocker.  I wonder what it would look like if it were all just a paint job?

tc06rtw's picture

... Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain —

 

 

               Your Government  loves  you
               and wants you to be  RICH !!

 

                                                                                        

gann1212's picture

yeah he thought it was going to crash too. do your own homework no one is a guru ha ha

potato's picture

An Oscillator? Seriously?

THis is bullshit.

I Write Code's picture

Hey, this is by the son of McClellan Oscillator!?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120

That's still my favorite technical summary.

But what's he yammering about, all he's seeing is what the Fed has been doing in manipulating individual equities and the market.  From that perspective there is no particular sign that things are topping out - I'm not sure what such a sign would look like, other than Janet Yellen riding a flaming unicorn across the sky.

The oscillator and summation index are doing stuff they shouldn't do and haven't done since 2008, but they follow the market manipulations, they don't prevent them, they show the manipulation, and if they retain any validity, it seems to be further upwards momentum.

Moar MoMo, Let's Go, BTFATH!

AdvancingTime's picture

The term "the new normal" has not been used much as of late, but going forward it may be about to return. Many investors and the public at large may be about to realize that central banks can only do so much through printing money and lowering interest rates. Both these actions carry with them some very strong and nasty side effects.

Markets have become very distorted as money has flowed into risky assets in search of higher yields. It could be we are about to see the markets morph into a "realizing market", one that grinds slowly downward. Another possibility is that at some point the wisdom of buying every pullback changes and the market simply drops like a stone. More on what the future might hold in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/realistic-expectations-for-econom...

d edwards's picture

IMHO, the "new ABnormal" is more fitting, cuz there ain't nothin' normal about the manipulated markets.

Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The Federal Reserve is playing with itself.

They are buying and selling these inflated stocks.

I don't think they fooled any foreign investors to participate in the farce.

cassotto's picture

indicators? when was the last time they worked?

Sandy15's picture

Not since Obummer took office.........

 

It's been a no brainer that the Fed is trading the futures market with itself.  They have Maiden Lane I, II, III which they are trading daily with.  Who cares if they lose in one, they're gaining in the other...... they can add zero's to the account getting to low.  Someone is buying calls and puts so far out of the money it's ridiculous!!!!

Lanka's picture

Oscillate THIS!

Comte d'herblay's picture

One thing about an 'average' is there is usually no one "in it".

If I make 100,000 and 4 each making 400,000, you get 5 making $1,700,000 for an 'Average' of-  5/1,700,000= $340,000.

None of the participants are earning $340,000.

Averages are like other statistics, mostly lies blessed with a pedigree.

moneybots's picture

"The Nasdaq 100 Index is"

 

a lovely parabolic.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Unless you actually know what that means in math in which case, no it isn't.

Carpenter1's picture

Does anyone believe this will continue for 25 years? No? Then all we're discussing is when. Kinda puts things in perspective, especially for those who mistakenly believe the FED can continue this indefinitely. 

 

THEY CANNOT

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Grr. I can't get data easily for this. This is precisely where a good scatterplot would be valuable.